Cowboys must eventually overcome recent history

[Chuck 54]

...if they want to be relevant in the NFL.

Against opponents Since 2011

Vs. below .500 opponents 16-1 Ranked T-1st in NFL

Vs. above .500 opponents. 4-19. Ranked T-28th in NFL

(Includes current win pct for 2013)

No, today is not a "must win" game for the Cowboys, but maybe every game against a winning team can be called a must win as we await an indication that our team can be a factor.

 

[1LoyalCowboyFan]

Nice research

 

[Stash]

...if they want to be relevant in the NFL.

Against opponents Since 2011

Vs. below .500 opponents 16-1 Ranked T-1st in NFL

Vs. above .500 opponents. 4-19. Ranked T-28th in NFL

(Includes current win pct for 2013)

Summed up perfectly with indisputable numbers to back it up.

 

[Chuck 54]

Nice research

ESPN....heard it in an interview and looked for facts, so I can't take credit, but while I do think we are finally building a younger, better team, you can't expect to even sniff a title until you start beating quality teams. Today would be a nice start, though our OL and DL are not really there yet.

 

[bark]

Part of the process chuck....

 

[Galian Beast]

For as bad as we are, we really just need to turn the corner.

I haven't looked at the numbers, but I'm guessing that our average margin of defeat isn't that high.

Going further I would suggest that the problem with our team isn't talent, but playing down to the level of our competition, which I put squarely on Jason Garrett's conservative mentality.

I think if we looked closer into things we would see that among the teams above 500 that we've lost to, that many of them are barely over 500, and that by losing to them probably enhanced their ability to be above 500, creating somewhat of a self fulfilling prophecy. I'd love to see the entire chart and see just how far back we are. It says we're 28th in the NFL but that doesn't really give us the entire picture.

 

[Galian Beast]

Teams we have lost to since 2011 and the margin we lost by

2011
New York Jets by 3
Detroit Lions by 4
New England Patriots by 4
Philadelphia Eagles by 27
Arizona Cardinals by 6
New York Giants by 3
Philadelphia Eagles by 13
New York Giants by 17
Average Margin of Defeat: 9.625 points

2012
Seattle Seahawks by 20
Chicago Bears by 16
Baltimore Ravens by 2
New York Giants by 5
Atlanta Falcons by 6
Washington Commanders by 7
New Orleans Saints by 3
Washington Commanders by 10
Average Margin of Defeat: 8.625 points

2013
Kansas City Chiefs by 1
San Diego Chargers by 9
Denver Broncos by 3
Detroit Lions by 1
Average Margin of Defeat: 3.5 points

So people probably don't want to hear that it is a process, but this team is obviously getting better. Have we turned the corner? No, we haven't. We've lost extremely close games to good teams this year. And we're still shooting ourselves in the foot, but it is clear that we've made progress, and I think we would all agree that we could have had a lot more progress had our defensive line been anywhere near healthy this year.

Makes me pretty excited about next year. Though somewhat depressed to have to be talking about next year already.

 

[Galian Beast]

Going further lets look at the combined records of the teams we have lost to.

2011
New York Jets (8-8)
Detroit Lions (10-6)
New England Patriots (13-3)
Philadelphia Eagles (8-8)
Arizona Cardinals (8-8)
New York Giants (9-7)
Philadelphia Eagles (8-8)
New York Giants (9-7)
Combined record 73-55 (.570)

2012
Seattle Seahawks (11-5)
Chicago Bears (10-6)
Baltimore Ravens (10-6)
New York Giants (9-7)
Atlanta Falcons (13-3)
Washington Commanders (10-6)
New Orleans Saints (7-9)
Washington Commanders (10-6)
Combined record 80-48 (.625)

2013
Kansas City Chiefs (9-0)
San Diego Chargers (4-4)
Denver Broncos (7-2)
Detroit Lions by (5-3)
Combined Record 25-9 (.735)

So, what does all that show us.

#1 We're being beaten by better teams each year than the year before.
#2 We're being beaten by smaller margins each year than the year before.

To me that signals progress. Obviously not enough drastic progress given the closing window on some of our players, but it is progress none the less.

It simply isn't shown in our record because our opponents keep getting better.

We've lost to teams with a combined winning percentage of .735. What does the rest of our schedule look like for this year?


New Orleans (6-2)
New York (2-6)
Oakland (3-5)
Chicago (5-3)
Green Bay (5-3)
Washington (3-6)
Philadelphia (4-5)

Combined record of 28-30 (.483)

That would tell us that we're likely to go at least 9-7 or 10-6 either of which should give us the division. But our decreasing margin of defeat should suggest that we have the potential to do better than that.

The number of teams we're facing with a .735 or higher: 1
Number of teams we're facing who are below .500: 4

 

[dallasdave]

It's time to build a championship team, the Cowboys need to do whatever is needed to get this done !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[Chuck 54]

We are not a super talented team. Take a look at the teams with winning records that we struggle to defeat.

How many of those teams would start our RBs?
How many teams would even have our #2-3-4 TEs on their rosters?
After Dez, how many of our WRs would start on winning teams?
Would any other player on our OL besides Smith and Frederick (1st round picks) start or even make rosters?

Our best safety is injured, and all the rest are just guys. We have a stud LB with a bunch of guys underperforming week in and week out. We are one more injury at CB from total disaster because we were extremely thin to begin with.

My greatest fear, now that we appear to be on the right course with drafting, is that by the time our OL and DL are rebuilt and we have a real RB who can be a front liner, Romo may be fading, and we will be looking for a QB.

This team also really misses a blocking TE and a FB who can block and catch.
I have not given up on this team this year, but here's my plan to be a serious NFL team next year:

1. Sign a veteran FA RB....not a big dollar guy, but a proven runner who will answer the bell each week...pair him with Murray.

2. Sign a FA blocking TE....again, inexpensive.

3. Find a true blocking, pass catching/screen pass type FB....does not need to be a battering ram because we are not going to become a power team...just a solid blocker who can find the right guy on both levels.

4. Draft another interior guy on the OL.

5. Draft at least one DT (pressing need) and one DE (Spencer unlikely to be back and Ware getting older).

6. Find another CB via free agency or later rounds (like Scandrick).

* I really love where we are with our special teams.

 

[Chuck 54]

Going further lets look at the combined records of the teams we have lost to.

2011
New York Jets (8-8)
Detroit Lions (10-6)
New England Patriots (13-3)
Philadelphia Eagles (8-8)
Arizona Cardinals (8-8)
New York Giants (9-7)
Philadelphia Eagles (8-8)
New York Giants (9-7)
Combined record 73-55 (.570)

2012
Seattle Seahawks (11-5)
Chicago Bears (10-6)
Baltimore Ravens (10-6)
New York Giants (9-7)
Atlanta Falcons (13-3)
Washington Commanders (10-6)
New Orleans Saints (7-9)
Washington Commanders (10-6)
Combined record 80-48 (.625)

2013
Kansas City Chiefs (9-0)
San Diego Chargers (4-4)
Denver Broncos (7-2)
Detroit Lions by (5-3)
Combined Record 25-9 (.735)

So, what does all that show us.

#1 We're being beaten by better teams each year than the year before.
#2 We're being beaten by smaller margins each year than the year before.

To me that signals progress. Obviously not enough drastic progress given the closing window on some of our players, but it is progress none the less.

It simply isn't shown in our record because our opponents keep getting better.

We've lost to teams with a combined winning percentage of .735. What does the rest of our schedule look like for this year?


New Orleans (6-2)
New York (2-6)
Oakland (3-5)
Chicago (5-3)
Green Bay (5-3)
Washington (3-6)
Philadelphia (4-5)

Combined record of 28-30 (.483)

That would tell us that we're likely to go at least 9-7 or 10-6 either of which should give us the division. But our decreasing margin of defeat should suggest that we have the potential to do better than that.

The number of teams we're facing with a .735 or higher: 1
Number of teams we're facing who are below .500: 4

It's nice to win the division, and anything less than that this year would really be underperformance, but until you start beating the teams that are 6-2, 10-4, etc., you aren't really a significant team on the NFL landscape. If we creep into the playoffs at 8-8 or 9-7, only because we whipped all the sub .500 teams on our schedule, we aren't likely to do much. Right now, I'd rather be the 9-7 team that lost a couple we should have won but defeated a couple of playoff teams...then I could at least have hope in the playoffs, but if we never beat teams like Detroit, Denver, KC, NO, SD, then I don't hold out much hope in the playoffs.

Taking care of business with the crappy teams is a first step, but championship teams play well when challenged, even if they slip up in a few trap games.

 

[dropdeadfred5]

Going further lets look at the combined records of the teams we have lost to.

2011
New York Jets (8-8)
Detroit Lions (10-6)
New England Patriots (13-3)
Philadelphia Eagles (8-8)
Arizona Cardinals (8-8)
New York Giants (9-7)
Philadelphia Eagles (8-8)
New York Giants (9-7)
Combined record 73-55 (.570)

2012
Seattle Seahawks (11-5)
Chicago Bears (10-6)
Baltimore Ravens (10-6)
New York Giants (9-7)
Atlanta Falcons (13-3)
Washington Commanders (10-6)
New Orleans Saints (7-9)
Washington Commanders (10-6)
Combined record 80-48 (.625)

2013
Kansas City Chiefs (9-0)
San Diego Chargers (4-4)
Denver Broncos (7-2)
Detroit Lions by (5-3)
Combined Record 25-9 (.735)

So, what does all that show us.

#1 We're being beaten by better teams each year than the year before.
#2 We're being beaten by smaller margins each year than the year before.

To me that signals progress. Obviously not enough drastic progress given the closing window on some of our players, but it is progress none the less.

It simply isn't shown in our record because our opponents keep getting better.

We've lost to teams with a combined winning percentage of .735. What does the rest of our schedule look like for this year?


New Orleans (6-2)
New York (2-6)
Oakland (3-5)
Chicago (5-3)
Green Bay (5-3)
Washington (3-6)
Philadelphia (4-5)

Combined record of 28-30 (.483)

That would tell us that we're likely to go at least 9-7 or 10-6 either of which should give us the division. But our decreasing margin of defeat should suggest that we have the potential to do better than that.

The number of teams we're facing with a .735 or higher: 1
Number of teams we're facing who are below .500: 4

actually it can reasonably be argued that we are making very little progress.

To start with taking this year so far and weighting it equally with the previous full two years is bogus.
As regards the so called progress between 2011 and 2012 it is hard to say there was any- so what if the margin of defeat was less by 1 point. Yeah that is real progress. just as easy to argue that there was no progress.

If it is progress it is way too little for the time and effort involved. Other teams make a lot more a lot faster. And in todays NFL you only are able to keep a team together for maybe 3, 4 years at most. So if you spend 4 years putting one together you are going to be losing parts of it right away.
Not to mention your stars will age. Ware appears to be breaking down; Witten is hanging in there but clearly seems to have lost some speed; Romo has been pounded and it can be argued that has been getting to him. Spencer is gone; Ratliff is gone; Hatcher is aging. True we have picked up some young studs in Lee, Dez, Tyron and Fredrick. But we are about to lose other studs to injury, FA, age. So it can easily be argued that all we are doing is treading water.

 

[Mr Cowboy]

All it means is that we this team doesn't know how to close out games, and doesn't know how to win close games. Many of those losses in the past years have come when leading the game in the 4th quarter. Some have come because of a mad dash to come from behind. The biggest problem is the philosophy of playing not to lose instead of playing to win. We have lead in many of those games that were lost to winning teams, in the 4th quarter.

 

[Toruk_Makto]

...if they want to be relevant in the NFL.
Against opponents Since 2011

Vs. below .500 opponents 16-1 Ranked T-1st in NFL

Vs. above .500 opponents. 4-19. Ranked T-28th in NFL

(Includes current win pct for 2013)

No, today is not a "must win" game for the Cowboys, but maybe every game against a winning team can be called a must win as we await an indication that our team can be a factor.

This is amazing.

Have not seen this research anywhere.

 

[dropdeadfred5]

when you are putrid beating good teams there is no reason to ever expect anything from any season.

 

[Galian Beast]

actually it can reasonably be argued that we are making very little progress.

To start with taking this year so far and weighting it equally with the previous full two years is bogus.
As regards the so called progress between 2011 and 2012 it is hard to say there was any- so what if the margin of defeat was less by 1 point. Yeah that is real progress. just as easy to argue that there was no progress.

If it is progress it is way too little for the time and effort involved. Other teams make a lot more a lot faster. And in todays NFL you only are able to keep a team together for maybe 3, 4 years at most. So if you spend 4 years putting one together you are going to be losing parts of it right away.
Not to mention your stars will age. Ware appears to be breaking down; Witten is hanging in there but clearly seems to have lost some speed; Romo has been pounded and it can be argued that has been getting to him. Spencer is gone; Ratliff is gone; Hatcher is aging. True we have picked up some young studs in Lee, Dez, Tyron and Fredrick. But we are about to lose other studs to injury, FA, age. So it can easily be argued that all we are doing is treading water.

Let me know where your argument begins.

 

[Chuck 54]

Lots of sorry teams in the NFL, so when you are 28th and have only four teams with worse records against winning teams, you are either putrid in the talent area/roster or your coaching stinks........................or both.

 

[1LoyalCowboyFan]

ESPN....heard it in an interview and looked for facts, so I can't take credit, but while I do think we are finally building a younger, better team, you can't expect to even sniff a title until you start beating quality teams. Today would be a nice start, though our OL and DL are not really there yet.

ahh I see..nice find!

 

[Illini88228]

This suggests a talent deficiency. If they were consistently losing to bad teams, but competitive against good teams, that would suggest that they aren't consistently living up to their potential. But they are consistently beating the bad teams, but not able to beat better teams. That sounds like they aren't talented enough.

I think the lousy cap management has left the team too thin to be competitive as the season goes along. They can scheme their way into covering these flaws against bad teams, but good teams expose their weaknesses.

 

[Idgit]

This suggests a talent deficiency. If they were consistently losing to bad teams, but competitive against good teams, that would suggest that they aren't consistently living up to their potential. But they are consistently beating the bad teams, but not able to beat better teams. That sounds like they aren't talented enough.

I think the lousy cap management has left the team too thin to be competitive as the season goes along. They can scheme their way into covering these flaws against bad teams, but good teams expose their weaknesses.

That's *exactly* what it suggests. I keep saying it's a good sign regarding our coaching and our team that we beat the teams we're supposed to beat, and get beat, narrowly, by the teams that are supposed to beat us. It's hard to overcome the mentality that 'no teams are supposed to beat us,' though.