Cowboys' Reactive Playcalling

[percyhoward]

https://sportsinfosolutionsblog.com...ing-in-the-nfl/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

“Defensive coaches base much of their game plans on the offensive tendencies of their opponents,” he wrote, “Such tendencies typically evolve from the offense’s reaction to such fundamental factors as down, distance, field position, personnel, situational circumstances, and contingency plans…Collectively, these special plays are commonly referred to as a team’s “reactive offense.” -- Bill Walsh, Finding the Winning Edge

The chart says Dallas was more likely than most teams to pass after rushing for a first down, but less likely to pass after passing for a first down. It's interesting to look at the other teams' tendencies too (see link). For example, the Rams, Saints, and Colts never once ran the ball after a first down sack.

"P & 10" = first play of drive

 

[Zekeats]

If I could understand that chart it would be interesting.

 

[percyhoward]

If I could understand that chart it would be interesting.

It shows the team's tendencies (pass or run) on the next play after each event. The event is on the bottom.

The black horizontal lines are the league averages. For example, right after a 1st down incompletion, Dallas passed about 63% of the time, which was also the league average. On the first play after their own turnover, the Cowboys had a tendency to run the ball 75% of the time, while the league as a whole showed no tendency either way. That 75% is something a good opposing DC would have picked up on.

 

[ondaedg]

I just learned that we gave up the 2nd most sacks on 1st down. Awesome.

 

[CATCH17]

I just learned that we gave up the 2nd most sacks on 1st down. Awesome.

Because we have a QB that isn’t the best at getting rid of the football.

 

[Rockport]

https://sportsinfosolutionsblog.com...ing-in-the-nfl/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

“Defensive coaches base much of their game plans on the offensive tendencies of their opponents,” he wrote, “Such tendencies typically evolve from the offense’s reaction to such fundamental factors as down, distance, field position, personnel, situational circumstances, and contingency plans…Collectively, these special plays are commonly referred to as a team’s “reactive offense.” -- Bill Walsh, Finding the Winning Edge

The chart says Dallas was more likely than most teams to pass after rushing for a first down, but less likely to pass after passing for a first down. It's interesting to look at the other teams' tendencies too (see link). For example, the Rams, Saints, and Colts never once ran the ball after a first down sack.

"P & 10" = first play of drive

Your point is moot. They have a new Offensive Coordinator.

 

[Rockport]

Because we have a QB that isn’t the best at getting rid of the football.

Since you spew hate on anything positive about the Cowboys I wonder how can you be a fan. But I know. Your brain is just wired that way. Sad. Very sad.

 

[percyhoward]

Your point is moot. They have a new Offensive Coordinator.

What point is that, Rockport?

 

[gmoney112]

Interesting, I wonder how they procured this data. Crawling through data dumps and taking "n+1" values from certain events maybe. I'd be interested ri see these data dumps (where they got info), I didn't know it existed, for the public anyway.

Looks to me like we don't run the ball enough after a rushing 1st down, that's a tell, and you can pretty much bank on us running after a turnover. Should probably run more after explosive run plays too.

I'm sure teams have access to data like this. If I was Kellen, I'd use some of the tougher games in the start of the season to counter these trends. After a rushing 1st, get up to line quickly, shift, and pound it where they're weakest. Same thing after an explosive run. After a turnover, have plays like zone floods with a lot of movement and take a shot with an "explosive" pass.

Running after a sack so much is a little too cute, teams will gladly take a 3rd and long. We should be explicitly working on combos in the passing game for 2nd and long situations after a sack (as well as just not taking sacks with more positive plays), create traffic, etc.

It'll be interesting to see how this plays out this year

 

[Ranching]

https://sportsinfosolutionsblog.com...ing-in-the-nfl/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

“Defensive coaches base much of their game plans on the offensive tendencies of their opponents,” he wrote, “Such tendencies typically evolve from the offense’s reaction to such fundamental factors as down, distance, field position, personnel, situational circumstances, and contingency plans…Collectively, these special plays are commonly referred to as a team’s “reactive offense.” -- Bill Walsh, Finding the Winning Edge

The chart says Dallas was more likely than most teams to pass after rushing for a first down, but less likely to pass after passing for a first down. It's interesting to look at the other teams' tendencies too (see link). For example, the Rams, Saints, and Colts never once ran the ball after a first down sack.

"P & 10" = first play of drive

Sooooooo, Garrett sucks!

 

[Cowfan75]

I understand that chart as much as Jason Garrett does.

 

[PhillyCowboysFan]

Ok someone help me out. If you are close to 50% pass/run ratio after any given play, doesn’t that make you as close to unpredictable as possible?

 

[Ranching]

Since you spew hate on anything positive about the Cowboys I wonder how can you be a fan. But I know. Your brain is just wired that way. Sad. Very sad.

You are a very sad and disturbed man or woman, can't tell.

 

[big dog cowboy]

To the rescue....

 

[RJ_MacReady]

I can totally get behind that we've had a predictable offense, but those graphs....

Since you understand them...can you rank the best and worst for us? How did the Cowboys stack-up in 2018? TIA!

 

[birdwells1]

One of the positive things about Moore being the new offensive coordinator is that no one in the NFL knows how he's going to call plays. We will see how good is probably in 2020 after teams have film on him so hopefully next year we go out and take the league by storm offensively.
I really don't think anything is wrong with the offense I just think that we get too predictable about what we're going to do and when we're going to do it. If we can just change that up we will be so much better offensively.

 

[bandfan]

They are useless unless you provide a set of each for the 1 yard line, 10 yard line, all the way to the other goal line. You get a turnover at the opposing 20 then it is a completely different situation than getting a turnover at you own 1 yard line....IMHO....and I suspect most coaches will know tendencies for both...

 

[percyhoward]

I can totally get behind that we've had a predictable offense, but those graphs....

Since you understand them...can you rank the best and worst for us? How did the Cowboys stack-up in 2018? TIA!

About average, but this is only limited to specific plays that Bill Walsh apparently considered to be significant. It doesn't address basic field position and down and distance, which you can bet quality control takes into consideration as a basis. Think of score margin, game situation, field position, down and distance as the mashed potatoes, and this as the gravy.

The Seahawks' chart is funny because they deviated from the norm more than any other team, but they always deviated in the same direction.. They basically said, "Screw the tendencies, we're running the ball." I think it cost them in the playoffs against us.

 

[GenoT]

You are a very sad and disturbed man or woman, can't tell.

He’s never missed cheerleader rehearsal, if that’ll help.

 

[Rockport]

What point is that, Rockport?

I already said the point....they have a new offensive coordinator so why dwell in the past?