Cowboys' Stupid Mistake Rating, Bye Week

[fanfromvirginia]

Bye Week Update:

For those who don't know, the formula is giveaways x 6 + # of penalties. The formula is very clumsy but easy to calculate and I think serves as a very rough representation of stupid mistakes. I don't want to continually rehash my arguments for not making this more complex -- in a nutshell, I want the data to be easily captured for all teams (i.e., info obtainable from a boxscore) to allow for easy-to-calcuate league-wide comparisons.

In Week 3 against the Texans we had our lowest score this season - 8. We had no giveaways and 8 penalties. In the 19 regular season games I've tracked this, the Cowboys are 10-2 when scoring less than 18 on this rating; 1-1 when scoring 18; and 1-4 when scoring more than 18. So our over/under seems to be 18.

Our average after three games is 16.67, which is slightly better than the league average. We continue to perform well on giveaways and poorly on penalties. We're doing a little worse than last year, when we performed significantly better than average, but much better than 2008 when we finished dead last in the league.

Note that beginning today, I will be including league averages. So far, as can be seen below, the range is much wider than last year, no doubt due to the limited data. I expect the range to narrow somewhat. A few things that stick out -- NE and IND are always in the top 5 or so teams in this rating; Detroit is always terrible; last year SD was the best but it doing terribly thus far; there are 6 teams doing worse so far this year than the last place team of 2009, Detroit.

Next week I'll include a thicker comparison to last season.

2009 League best (Chargers): 11.25
2009 League worst (Detroit): 21.5
2009 League average: 16.14
2009 Cowboys: 14.31

2010 League best (NYJ): 7.25
2010 League worst (Arizona): 27.5
2010 League average: 16.96
2010 Cowboys average: 16.67

Below are the league-wide averages going into Week 5. Note that 4 teams -- Dallas, KC, MIN, and TB have played only 3 games because of the bye week. The rating of course takes that into account. The format is TEAM/#giveaways/#penalties/Rating:

1. NYJ/1/23/7.25
2. IND/4/18/10.5
3. KC/ 3/14/10.67
4. NE/4/19/10.75
5. WAS/3/26/11
6. NO/5/16/11.5
7. ATL/5/19/12.25
8. TB/4/14/12.67
9. DEN/5/22/13
10. PIT/5/22/13
11. PHI/3/34/13
12. HOU/5/22/13
13. BUF/6/18/13.5
14. MIA/7/17/14.75
15. JAX/7/21/15.75
16. CIN/6/27/15.75
17. CLE/6/29/16.25
18. DAL/4/26/16.67
19. CHI/8/24/18
20. STL/8/27/18.75
21. GB/8/29/19.25
22. SEA/9/23/19.25
23. BAL/9/25/19.75
24. OAK/8/35/20.75
25. SD/10/25/21.25
26. SF/10/25/21.25
27. TEN/10/37/24.25
28. MIN/8/25/24.33
29. CAR/13/21/24.75
30. DET/11/37/25.75
31. NYG/13/29/26.75
32. ARI/13/32/27.5

NFL AVE 6.91/24.41/16.96

 

[fanfromvirginia]

Something I just noticed -- the top 4 teams this year are in the AFC and the bottom 5 are in the NFC. Eleven of the last 15 teams are in the NFC.

 

[fanfromvirginia]

Post-game update: we had a 23 tonight, which is very high. Two giveaways plus 11 penalties. Without looking it up, we're on pace for 148 penalties this year!

 

[Seven]

Lots of work done here. Reallly don't need math to understand that Dallas is an implosion. You can almost literally see it on the field. Shame.

 

[fanfromvirginia]

Oops. Our score was a 30 -- 3 giveaways and 12 penalties, putting us on pace for 152 for the season.

 

[fanfromvirginia]

Lots of work done here. Really don't need math to understand that Dallas is an implosion. You can almost literally see it on the field. Shame.

I agree but the math helps. The fact is that the Cowboys have won a lot more than they've lost under Wade. This stat helps show when and how the break downs happen. Using this stat, the Cowboys are 10-2 when they score under an 18, 1-1 when they score exactly 18, and 1-5 when they're over 18, which of course they were today.

But, yeah, these team is imploding. I don't expect Wade to finish the season. He may not survive Columbus Day....

 

[Seven]

I agree but the math helps. The fact is that the Cowboys have won a lot more than they've lost under Wade. This stat helps show when and how the break downs happen. Using this stat, the Cowboys are 10-2 when they score under an 18, 1-1 when they score exactly 18, and 1-5 when they're over 18, which of course they were today.

But, yeah, these team is imploding. I don't expect Wade to finish the season. He may not survive Columbus Day....

THanks for your efforts, ffv..........Wade isn't the problem.

 

[Tractor1]

THanks for your efforts, ffv..........Wade isn't the problem.

Parcells' analysis is appropriate for this team as well. They're too dumb to be good. Twelve penalties for 133 yards? There's too much parity in the league to make that many mistakes and expect to win. Something, or some one must be changed.

 

[fanfromvirginia]

Parcells' analysis is appropriate for this team as well. They're too dumb to be good. Twelve penalties for 133 yards? There's too much parity in the league to make that many mistakes and expect to win. Something, or some one must be changed.

Yes, but making stupid players less stupid is a coach's responsibility.

 

[Seven]

Yes, but making stupid players less stupid is a coach's responsibility.

The HC we have was hired and stamped with the approval of the GM. As was an OC (being paid more than the HC) who, BTW, is in the GM's most recent plans to become HC.

 

[fanfromvirginia]

The HC we have was hired and stamped with the approval of the GM. As was an OC (being paid more than the HC) who, BTW, is in the GM's most recent plans to become HC.

I'm an agnostic in the great, ongoing Jerry debate. It's not that I believe in his ability; I just don't see the point in focusing on trying to fix the one unfixable piece.

JG scares me as a head coach as well. He doesn't, at this stage anyway, scare me as an interim coach. He'll either screw it up and need to be replaced or he'll do well and earn a real chance. Of course, Jerry could muck that up but what I really think is frightening is sticking with Wade at this stage. I just don't see any reason to do it.

 

[Seven]

I'm an agnostic in the great, ongoing Jerry debate. It's not that I believe in his ability; I just don't see the point in focusing on trying to fix the one unfixable piece.

JG scares me as a head coach as well. He doesn't, at this stage anyway, scare me as an interim coach. He'll either screw it up and need to be replaced or he'll do well and earn a real chance. Of course, Jerry could muck that up but what I really think is frightening is sticking with Wade at this stage. I just don't see any reason to do it.

At least you realize at every turn..........we're sunk, right?

 

[Seven]

I'm an agnostic in the great, ongoing Jerry debate. It's not that I believe in his ability; I just don't see the point in focusing on trying to fix the one unfixable piece.

JG scares me as a head coach as well. He doesn't, at this stage anyway, scare me as an interim coach. He'll either screw it up and need to be replaced or he'll do well and earn a real chance. Of course, Jerry could muck that up but what I really think is frightening is sticking with Wade at this stage. I just don't see any reason to do it.

BTW - washing your hands of the real issue.....good call. I still hold hope every season. Shame on me.

 

[fanfromvirginia]

At least you realize at every turn..........we're sunk, right?

No, because I don't think that Jerry is destined to always fail no matter what and, IMO, we really are not missing very much. I think what this particular group of players needs is a coaching staff that can instill and maintain discipline and Jerry is at least capable of getting lucky and choosing the right guy(s) for the job.

 

[fanfromvirginia]

BTW - washing your hands of the real issue.....good call. I still hold hope every season. Shame on me.

Yeah, but it's not like we're going 5-11 every year like we did under Campo. We really are quite close. We're just not quite good enough to put it all together. That's why these occasional implosions are so frustrating and embarrassing.

 

[Seven]

No, because I don't think that Jerry is destined to always fail no matter what and, IMO, we really are not missing very much. I think what this particular group of players needs is a coaching staff that can instill and maintain discipline and Jerry is at least capable of getting lucky and choosing the right guy(s) for the job.

1995.................he ain't capable.

 

[Seven]

Yeah, but it's not like we're going 5-11 every year like we did under Campo. We really are quite close. We're just not quite good enough to put it all together. That's why these occasional implosions are so frustrating and embarrassing.

No, we're not 5-11, which BTW was all at the feet of jerry. We have been close for several years now. Close gets ya shaved.


Sorry, ffv. Occassions don't string together with the likes of 16 years.