Cutler... Tell me the last time a great pro QB wasn't good enough to at least take his college team to a bowl game? I don't believe it has happened in the last 20-30 years. The college game is one that a QB that has pro talent will elevate his team to at least win 6 games.
Young... Perhaps the QB under the biggest microscope. This is 100% my opinion, but I do have a pretty darn good track record when it comes to QB analysis for the pros (totally missed on Harrington, but that is another story). Young has a lot of things that are positives.
He's played big time football in front of big crowds in pressure situations and shined.
He has strong leadership skills
He's the perfect size/weight for the position
Amazing runner
Things that I'm not sold on. His ability to see the field and read a defense. These are both critical. At Texas his read system was similar to the read system that Dallas put in place for Quincy when it was obvious that he couldn't scan the entire field. He read one quadrant where there were two or three receivers at various depths. If they weren't open, tuck it and run. You simply can't be successful doing that in the NFL and I have my doubts if he will be able to get where he needs to go. I also think that his emotional manner will work against him at least in the beginning. He's got a lot of heart, but QBs tend to not be firey outspoken guys. Yes there is Brett Favre who breaks a lot of the norms in being a great NFL QB, but odds aren't with anybody that can let their emotions get away from them. One emotional outburst at the wrong time and a QB will never recover from negative labels (see Ryan Leaf). We also have no clue how Young will be able to play in a normal NFL situation where a QB has to be rid of the ball in less than 4 seconds or be dog food. He had all day most of the time at Texas. There aren't many teams in the NFL that can provide that kind of time.
I don't put a ton into the arm-strength argument pro or con. I've seen Chad Pennington (a weak armed QB) throw the ball 50+ yards. He just can't throw it that far on a rope. Elway was perhaps the strongest armed QB of the modern era, but until he had a tendon problem in his throwing arm, he had trouble adjusting down to dump off passes. So arm strength is one thing that tends to be over-rated in my view. Accuracy however is not. I watched a lot of Texas games and I do have doubts about his ability to be pin-point with his passes. He rarely had to squeeze a ball into a tight spot. His receivers always seemed to be a full step open. In the NFL, half a body is the norm on short to middle passes. If a QB can't squeeze it into a small window, he's not going to be successful. I'm not saying VY can't do it, I just haven't seen him do it enough to list that is a strength.
To me it boils down to percentages for failure. Yes, there is the chance that VY could become the most dominating player in the NFL. But there is a more likely chance that one of these concerns that I've brought up (and there only has to be one) end up on the negative end. Just one means the differnece between a great QB, an OK QB, a sideshow QB (like Vick), or a bust. Anybody that argues that VY is a lock or has a great chance at greatness is putting too much credit on his college results and not enough on his manner of play.
Every year I rate players that have a high bust potential. This year, VY has to be at the top of that list. That is no guarantee that he will not be a great pro, simply that he has more things that he has to overcome to achieve greatness.
David Harrell - Pokes
dwh