Yeah that one is good as well. I watched a documentary years back where they went into detailed analysis on where/how they could have made it into a current that would have carried them to shore. Definitely a toss up if they made it or not.
The one I saw was 2 parts IIRC. The plausible theory was this: As kids, the brothers used to ride inner tubes tied behind boats. So they never planned to to row themselves across the bay on the improvised raft. When theu made their way out of the prison walls, they snuck around the island and hid underneath the dock.
The guards were changing shifts at the time. A boat brought the new shift of guards to the prison and took the off shift guards off the island. The escapees tied on to the back of the boat and were towed out across the bay.
A San Francisco policeman was gazing out over the bay that night and saw a motor yacht just sitting out in the bay; going nowhere. So the theory is that the escapees rode the raft part of the way out then released the rope from the boat and was picked up by the yacht.
The Mother of the brothers continued getting Christmas cards from one of the sons for years thereafter until she died. There were no postmarks on the envelopes. Also a man claims to have randomly met them at a bar in South America and had a picture of the brothers on thier farm/ranch.
True or accurate or not, it makes an interesting theory.