Daily Rumor Mill

JonCJG

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POSTED 1:29 p.m. EDT, April 27, 2006
SKIES BRIGHTEN FOR TEAM LEINART
Our official Team Leinart source tells us that the mood is dramatically improving in and around the 2004 Heisman winner. Word is that agent Tom Condon recently has told Leinart that he'll "definitely" be off of the board within the first three picks on
Saturday.

Condon, we hear, now believes that Titans G.M. Floyd Reese -- who wants Vince Young -- has been overruled by owner Bud Adams. Tennessee coach Jeff Fisher and offensive coordinator Norm Chow both are strongly believed to be pro-Leinart.
Condon also believes, we're told, that there's also a possibility that the Saints will still take Leinart at No. 2. Rumors are circulating that quarterback Drew Brees is behind schedule in the rehabilitation of his shoulder injury, which required surgery earlier in the offseason.

On Tuesday night, we heard that the Leinart camp was bracing for a potential fall past the ten spot. Our somewhat-educated guess is that, if Leinart should be available past No. 7, someone will try to trade up with the Bills to get him at No. 8.

POSTED 1:13 p.m. EDT, April 27, 2006
MARIO IS MERELY A SMOKESCREEN

A league source with knowledge of the situation tells us that, despite claims from the Texans that the team currently is negotiating with both Reggie Bush and Mario Williams, the involvement of Williams in the process is nothing more than a smokescreen.

So even if our source as to the striking of a deal between Bush and the Texans somehow was wr-wr-wr-wrong, it's increasingly clear to us that Bush is the guy, and that there are no genuine negotiations occurred or planned between the Texans and Williams.

Williams is expected to be selected by the Saints at No. 2.
POSTED 11:55 a.m. EDT, April 27, 2006
CASSERLY CONFIRMS IT -- NO DEAL YET FOR BUSH

In our quest to actually engage in some "real" journalism (imagine that), we've heard from Texans G.M. Charley Casserly as to the rumors we've heard of a done deal between the Texans and tailback Reggie Bush.

After catching wind of the agreement from a source who has been rock-solid for us in the past, we initially called Texans V.P. of comunications Tony Wyllie. We left a message on Wyllie's cell phone, and then we tried to reach Casserly. We heard back from Wyllie first, and we've now had a chance to talk to the G.M. himself.

And Casserly confirms the team's position that no deal is in place.

In so doing, Casserly sounded pretty convincing to us.

He said that the rumor of a deal is "absolutely not true." Casserly said that the team is in active negotiations with both Bush and defensive end Mario Williams. "That's the honest to God truth," Casserly added.

So now we're torn. The source who told us about the deal is a credible one. But "honest to God" is a pretty strong affirmation, unless Casserly secretly is an atheist or something.

For now, we'll take the team's word for it. But we're also going to follow up with our source.
POSTED 11:02 a.m. EDT; LAST UPDATED 11:27 a.m. EDT, April 27, 2006
TEXANS DENY BUSH DEAL

A source tells us that the Houston Texans have reached an agreement with tailback Reggie Bush, which will make him the first overall choice in the 2006 draft.

The Texans, however, disagree.

Reached via his cell phone in New York, Texans V.P. of communications Tony Wyllie told Profootballtalk.com (man, it sure sounds like we know what we're doing when we write it up like that) that the team is "negotiating with both players."
"Reggie Bush and Vince Young?" we asked.

"Very funny," Wyllie said.

The other player is North Carolina State defensive end Mario Williams. The Texans reportedly have been negotiating with both players, although the focal point to date apparently has been Bush.

Although the recent questions regarding Bush's college eligibility likely do not affect his draft standing, we believe that the team is squeezing Bush's agent, Joel Segal, because Segal surely is concerned (in our estimation) that he could be fired by Bush if Bush isn't the No. 1 overall pick.
POSTED 8:05 a.m. EDT, April 27, 2006

SCOUTS EXPLORE WHETHER DREW HAD ROLE IN DENNY'S INCIDENT
A reader with access to Pro Football Weekly's pay-based "Inner Circle" tells us that the folks at PFW are reporting that league scouts continue to investigate whether UCLA running back Maurice Drew had any role in the recent incident at a Westwood Denny's that left Ricky Manning facing charges of assault with a deadly weapon after a guy who was using a laptop in the restaurant got the sausage beaten out of him by a group of men.

Per PFW, Drew's agent confirmed that the former Bruin was "eating dinner" at the time but says that Drew had no role in the matter.

Although Manning and Drew were recently together on the set of NFL Network's Total Access, Drew's agent said that Manning and Drew are not acquaintances. The agent claims that Drew had no involvement or knowledge of the incident, and simply happened to be in the wrong place at the wrong time.

Drew is the guy to whom we were referring on Tuesday when we said that the Manning situation could get interesting as the draft unfolds. Based on the statements from Drew's agent (and agents have no reason to spin the facts for their clients), there's no connection. Until there's evidence to the contrary, however, we've got no reason to dispute the account of Drew's agent.
DETAILS ON LAVAR'S DEAL

We've finally gotten a look-see at the contract signed by linebacker LaVar Arrington with the Giants. As previously reported, the package stinks.

The signing bonus, as reported, is only $5.25 million. The 2006 cap number is $1.8 million, based on a $1.05 million signing bonus proration, a $650,000 base salary, and a $100,000 workout bonus.

First year earnings: $6 million. Or $1.6 million more than he gave up to hit the market in March instead of July.
The deal also contains up to $500,000 in 2006 incentives based on sacks, playing time, and playoffs.

In 2007, Arrington is eligible for a roster bonus of $2.25 million on the 15th day of the league year. Eligibility for the roster bonus is tied to a playing-time threshold in 2006. There's another roster bonus worth $46,875 for each game in which Arrington is active in 2006, with a maximum of $750,000. The base salary for 2007 is $900,000. Arrington also has a $100,000 workout bonus, more than $1.1 million in incentives, and an escalator of up to $1.5 million.

In 2008, the base salary spikes to $2.95 million. Also, Arrington is eligible for a roster bonus of up to $450,000, based on $28,125 per active game in 2008. There's a $1.5 million roster bonus based again on 2006 playing time, a $100,000 workout bonus, $500,000 in incentives, a $1 million Pro Bowl escalator if his 2007 escalator is not triggered, and up to $750,000 in additional escalators.
In 2009, the base salary shoots to $3.95 million. There's another per-game roster bonus of $28,125, with a maximum haul of $450,000, a workout bonus of $100,000, up to $500,000 in incentives, and an escalator of up to $1 million.
In 2010, the base pay goes to $4.95 million. The other terms from 2009 are the same, with the maximum escalator at $1.25 million.

In 2011, the base salary is $5.45 million, with the same terms from 2009 and 2010. The maximum escalator is $1.75 million.

In 2012, the terms are the same as in 2011, but the base moves to $5.95 million.
Our take? It's a two-year deal with a per-year team option on each of the remaining five seasons. The minimum value for the first two years is $7 million. His ability to get paid by the Giants in 2008 and beyond is tied directly to his ability to stay healthy, and perform effectively, in 2006 and 2007.

The package lends further credence to information we've received regarding the outcome of the MRI on Arrinton's knee. Although he technically "passed" the physical, there are still concerns regarding his ability to play over the long haul.
DRAFT INFORMATION

Our friends at Football Forecasters have draft analysis of team needs, what teams are most likely to swing a draft day trade, and their own NFL mock draft.
THURSDAY MORNING ONE-LINERS
Uncle Rico was upset to learn that Uncle Charley doesn't want him.

The Texans and Joel Segal are making progress on a deal for Reggie Bush.

The Seahawks have broken off talks with CB Ty Law, at least until after the draft.

Mel Kiper's hair care secrets, and more.

More delays in the Sean Taylor case.

Farewell, DJ Dirty Sanchez.

The Fins are trying to do to the Vikings that which the Fins tried to do to the Browns a year ago (and what the Vikes did to the Fins two years ago).

TE Vernon Davis thinks the Jets will draft him.

Former Penn State QB Michael Robinson is taking aim at some icons in order to make his case to play quarterback in the NFL: "Peyton Manning and Tom Brady, they're great quarterbacks, but they're going to bea dying breed. Defenses are getting too fast. You can't have quarterbacks who are statues."

The Steelers have signed S Mike Logan to a one-year deal.

Redskins S Adam Archuleta confirms that his decision last month came down to the 'Skins and the Bears.

There are plenty of linebackers and cornerbacks who'll be drafted early on Saturday.

DE Mathias Kiawanuka liked hearing his name on TV -- until he realized that the folks uttering it were saying that he'd be dropping in the draft.

Character counts for the Ravens (and we'd hate to see who they'd be selecting if character didn't count).
 

JonCJG

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POSTED 10:53 p.m. EDT, April 27, 2006

ONE LAST BOMBSHELL COMING?

We're picking up indications of one more pre-draft bombshell that could, if the information is disclosed before Saturday, prompt a player poised to be pick early in the draft to fall precipitously.

The kicker is that there's a chance the information will break before Saturday -- and there's a chance that it will never come to light.

We're chasing it. We might uncover it. Maybe someone else will. Maybe they won't.

Regardless, it all adds to the intrigue.


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WE DEY ON DRAFT DAY

While watching the draft on ESPN and/or NFL Network on Saturday and Sunday, be sure to keep your laptops on (unless you're in a Denny's) and tuned in to Profootballtalk.com. We'll have instant analysis of every pick on day one, a constant stream of any rumors that we're hearing, and a special extended podcast on Sunday breaking down as much of the draft as we can get Dante to focus on.

Also, check back on Friday for our final round one mock draft.

Manning the site through the first few picks on Saturday will be Tech Guy Sean, who proved that he's not a slapd--k this week via his sleuthing efforts in connection with the Reggie Bush story. Yours truly will be coaching Florio Jr.'s season-opening little league game on Saturday morning, but monitoring the draft coverage from the dugout with a Samsung A900 phone featuring Sprint Power Vision.

POSTED 9:26 p.m. EDT, April 27, 2006

PLOT THICKENS IN BUSH AFFAIR

Another day, another stunning development in the biggest story leading up to this year's draft.

According to the Los Angeles Times, the family of former USC tailback Reggie Bush moved in to the home owned by prospective marketing agent Michael Michaels because of a "'financial problem.'"

"They were having a financial problem," said Bush's marketing representative, Mike Ornstein. "So this guy came to them and said 'Move into the house.' And so they did and they worked out an arrangement to pay him. That's what I understand."

But if the real question here is whether Bush's family paid fair market value to live in the house owned by Michaels. If they didn't, then Bush likely was ineligible for all or part of the 2005 season. And if the family moved into the house because they were having a financial problem, common sense suggests (or, more accurately, cries out) that the two parties struck an arrangement involving something other than the payment of a rental fee negotiated on an arm's-length basis.

An arrangement such as, for example, "You live here for free and I represent your son."

Meanwhile, the Times reports that lawyer David Cornwell has hired a veteran investigator who previously worked for the NCAA to take a look at the situation. This specific development could mean that Cornwell is wondering whether he's getting the straight story from his clients.


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POSTED 9:00 p.m. EDT, April 27, 2006

PACK WANT FIRST-ROUNDER FOR WALKER

A league source tells us that the Green Bay Packers want a first-round draft choice for receiver Javon Walker, and that the Pack don't intend to deal him for anything less than that.

Although such talk could merely be puffery, with Green Bay possibly willing to take a two or a three, the Packers have assumed a hard line to date regarding Walker. It wouldn't surprise us at all to see G.M. Ted Thompson dig in his heels, if for no reason other than to prove a point.

What confuses us most regarding the Walker situation is the Packers' decision to wait until the eve of the draft to permit Javon to search for a trade partner. Published reports already have placed Walker in New Orleans and Denver for visits. We've heard that a trip to Philly is also in the works.

But as we explained on Wednesday night, too much needs to happen in a compressed time frame. A deal must be struck not only as to compensation between the Packers and Walker's new team, but also as to an extention of Walker's contract, which expires after the 2006 season.

With Green Bay holding out for a first-rounder and Walker wanting (as we've heard) $10 million to $12 million in bonus money on a new contract, we don't see a trade happening any time soon.


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POSTED 5:14 p.m. EDT, April 27, 2006

BUSH LOOKING AT LESS THAN $22 MILLION GUARANTEED

Based on our ongoing discussions with league sources regarding the negotiations between the Texans and running back Reggie Bush, it appears that the deal will entail the maximum guaranteed money available under a five-year deal with a second-year option bonus for year six.

Whether the cap number that the Texans begin with is $2.83 million (as the CBA would indicate) or $2.9 million (as we've more recently heard), the guaranteed money is less than $22 million.

But there are ways to push other money into the contract that, while not technically "guaranteed," will undoubtedly be earned. The most common device is the multi-million-dollar payment tied to a minimum playing time incentive. Under that scenario, Bush would pick up another $4 million or so by participating in at least 35 percent of the offensive snaps in 2006.

The key will be to ensure that the "min p/t" incentive rolls over into subsequent years. If it doesn't, a serious injury in 2006 could keep him from ever earning the money. (See Winslow, Kellen.)

As we recently explained, Bush could get more than $27 million in guaranteed money by signing a straight six-year deal. However, more than $17 million of the money would be packed into the last three years of the contract, making the present value of the package worth considerably less than $27 million.
 
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