Dak's interceptions

[gimmesix]

Now that the Romo era has been wrapped up, it's time to get ready for unrealistic expectations for Dak Prescott.

One of the main one that comes to mind for me are his interception numbers. What he achieved last year, throwing four interceptions as a rookie, is absolutely incredible. We should not be expecting a repeat of that, though. I remember at least four interceptions that were dropped and there might have been more.

Realistically, if he achieves a 3:1 TD-to-int. ratio, he's doing his job as a quarterback. For example, if he throws 15 interceptions, that would look awful, but if it was because we were passing a lot and he also has 45 TDs, those can be good numbers. (I don't expect those numbers and think it should be closer to 30 to 10.)

Also, we should expect Dak to still have some things to work on. He showed a tendency at times last year when there was a little bit of pressure to go up on his tiptoes, which throws off his passes. Overall, he and the coaches did a good job keeping this college tendency at bay, which is one reason he did better than projected. However, we should not be surprised if such technical issues rear their head from time to time and he has to work through them.

When these things happen, I hope we don't lose sight of the big picture with Prescott. We have a good, young quarterback who could be the face of the franchise at the position for the next decade. It's not easy to find those guys and we appear to have had good fortune on our side to get ours in the fourth round.

 

[Alexander]

Now that the Romo era has been wrapped up, it's time to get ready for unrealistic expectations for Dak Prescott.

I think everyone is taking what he did last year for granted, like he will just repeat it. It was pretty remarkable and even a slight sophomore dip will have people on his case.

I fully expect a coming down to earth jolt for him.

Key is how he, and the rest of the team, deal with that and the criticism that will come with it.

 

[Doomsday101]

I think everyone is taking what he did last year for granted, like he will just repeat it. It was pretty remarkable and even a slight sophomore dip will have people on his case.

I fully expect a coming down to earth jolt for him.

Key is how he, and the rest of the team, deal with that and the criticism that will come with it.

I think that could happen if Dallas forgets how to run the ball but if they continue to run and keep the offense in manageable down and distances situation then I think Dak will continue to take what the defense gives and not force balls.

 

[GhostOfPelluer]

Dak is naturally selective with his throws. He doesn't try to force a ball into a spot as much as Tony would (Tony often was able to get away with it because he was that good). That said. 4 is absurd and history shows it's not really sustainable.

I think 8-12 is the range you could and should expect to see from him. More than that is probably regression.

 

[MichaelWinicki]

I would expect his INT% to increase.

On the other hand, I expect his number of TD passes to increase also, along with his number of passing yards.

 

[gimmesix]

I think that could happen if Dallas forgets how to run the ball but if they continue to run and keep the offense in manageable down and distances situation then I think Dak will continue to take what the defense gives and not force balls.

Protection will matter as well. If letting Leary go with Free retiring creates a weak link in the line, then Prescott will have to play more under pressure. I know many are glad to see Free go and think replacing him will be easy, but way more often than not last season, Prescott has plenty of time in the pocket to set up, scan the field and deliver the ball.

 

[DFWJC]

Now that the Romo era has been wrapped up, it's time to get ready for unrealistic expectations for Dak Prescott.

One of the main one that comes to mind for me are his interception numbers. What he achieved last year, throwing four interceptions as a rookie, is absolutely incredible. We should not be expecting a repeat of that, though. I remember at least four interceptions that were dropped and there might have been more.

Realistically, if he achieves a 3:1 TD-to-int. ratio, he's doing his job as a quarterback. For example, if he throws 15 interceptions, that would look awful, but if it was because we were passing a lot and he also has 45 TDs, those can be good numbers. (I don't expect those numbers and think it should be closer to 30 to 10.)

Also, we should expect Dak to still have some things to work on. He showed a tendency at times last year when there was a little bit of pressure to go up on his tiptoes, which throws off his passes. Overall, he and the coaches did a good job keeping this college tendency at bay, which is one reason he did better than projected. However, we should not be surprised if such technical issues rear their head from time to time and he has to work through them.

When these things happen, I hope we don't lose sight of the big picture with Prescott. We have a good, young quarterback who could be the face of the franchise at the position for the next decade. It's not easy to find those guys and we appear to have had good fortune on our side to get ours in the fourth round.

30 and 10 would be very good
I'll take it in year 2

 

[Doomsday101]

Protection will matter as well. If letting Leary go with Free retiring creates a weak link in the line, then Prescott will have to play more under pressure. I know many are glad to see Free go and think replacing him will be easy, but way more often than not last season, Prescott has plenty of time in the pocket to set up, scan the field and deliver the ball.

I think Cowboys have some good option on the OL to fill the vacant spots and still expect the OL to be a big strength of this team.

 

[gimmesix]

Dak is naturally selective with his throws. He doesn't try to force a ball into a spot as much as Tony would (Tony often was able to get away with it because he was that good). That said. 4 is absurd and history shows it's not really sustainable.

I think 8-12 is the range you could and should expect to see from him. More than that is probably regression.

Being selective is easier when you establish a running game and have time to go through your progressions. If the offense continues to provide those things, we should see a similar performance from Dak, although some of those dropped interceptions could be caught instead.

Of course, this is assuming that he doesn't suffer any kind of setback with his mechanics. Hopefully, that won't be the case and he'll instead improve in that area on what he already has established. It might not show in the interceptions numbers, though.

 

[tyke1doe]

I've said previously, he'll have more interceptions because he'll become more comfortable in the offense and try to take more chances. I don't expect a phenomenal amount of interceptions. But he'll be hard-pressed to throw only four.

If he does, then we've got a once-in-a-generation type quarterback. I was looking at the career interception stats for Brady and Favre. In their first six seasons, they threw double-digit interceptions. In Brady's 15 years as a starter (not counting the year he was done for the season after the first game), he has had 6 seasons where he has thrown single digit interceptions. In Favre's 19 years as a starter, he has only had ONE single digit interception season.

I've always said of Favre that he could have won at least two more Super Bowls if he wasn't such the turnover machine.

Having a quarterback who can minimize turnovers is a huge advantage to an offense. You combine a potential franchise quarterback with those lack of turnovers, and you're talking about a special athlete who will put you in a position to win more than giving games away with untimely picks.

 

[gimmesix]

I would expect his INT% to increase.

On the other hand, I expect his number of TD passes to increase also, along with his number of passing yards.

There were certainly some throws at the goal line that he missed that he could improve on to improve those numbers.

 

[Kevinicus]

I think everyone is taking what he did last year for granted, like he will just repeat it. It was pretty remarkable and even a slight sophomore dip will have people on his case.

I fully expect a coming down to earth jolt for him.

Key is how he, and the rest of the team, deal with that and the criticism that will come with it.

People don't realize that it takes a lot of luck to go an entire season without having an interception (or a few) off of tipped passes, incorrect routes, etc. It's not something that should be expected to continue forever.

 

[gimmesix]

I think Cowboys have some good option on the OL to fill the vacant spots and still expect the OL to be a big strength of this team.

I don't expect the line to collapse, but the amount of pressure could change depending on how we fill those two spots.

The good news is that the amount of pressure also could go down because Free certainly was not an irreplaceable linemen. If Green can stay healthy, he looked like he can handle the job. If not, I'm not as sure about the options. I think Collins might can handle the job, but I'm not sure about Cooper at guard. Bell seems to have been fairly solid at guard, but was worse than Free as a tackle.

We'll see how it plays out.

 

[Alexander]

Being selective is easier when you establish a running game and have time to go through your progressions.

It is also easier when the offense is designed to set up throws and react off of what the defense is keying towards. Prescott was not put in the position to have to win a shootout and did not operate from a deficit very often with time against him. You also have to figure that they will try to layer more responsibility on him in the offense this year than last. So he has to be capable of taking that on.

If they keep static, teams will figure out what we do to a stronger degree and what appeared to be an explosive offense last year will suddenly not be so fluid. He appears to have his head screwed on straight enough to handle it mentally, so that is a real plus and why expecting a Griffin type collapse is a bit of a stretch.

 

[TheCount]

I'm not even sure what the point of the "back to earth" posts is.

Zeke was the NFL rush leader last year and averaged 5 yards a carry, but you don't see any "back to earth" posts about him.

Quarterback performance is about more than TD's and INT's. I fully expect Dak to be better than last year, whether he throws more interceptions or not.

People are bringing up dropped ints like that doesn't happen to every QB. The fact that you saw the drops doesn't mean Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers and Matt Ryan didn't throw potential interceptions that were dropped either.

 

[gimmesix]

People don't realize that it takes a lot of luck to go an entire season without having an interception (or a few) off of tipped passes, incorrect routes, etc. It's not something that should be expected to continue forever.

I can't remember what year it was, but it seemed like every interception Romo threw was because of a pass that a receiver didn't handle. I agree that a lot of luck is involved in a low-interception season and it's one reason it's hard to judge a QB's season by just looking at the numbers.

 

[jwooten15]

You're right, OP. Definitely unrealistic to expect 4 INT next year.

But Dak is a worker. His intangibles and work ethic are two things that will help him next season - even if he does experience some troubles.

I think most certainly, he will throw more than 4 INT, but I also think he will make more plays than he did last year, and throw more TDs than he did, as well. He will be given much more leeway in the offense, and that could potentially be a really good thing.

One season under his belt, plus an entire offseason to improve and prepare as the starter is going to benefit him so much. I'm not worried about much of a drop-off. He is surrounded by lots of talent and the offense's potential doesn't ride solely on his shoulders, like it was with Romo. Dak will be much more comfortable and confident. I'm excited!

 

[odog422]

Quite simply, he really is that good. He was single digits his sophomore and senior seasons. 11 his junior year which was the aberration.

The guy is phenomenal and his track record backs it up. I'll continue to sit back and enjoy how fortunate we are to have selected, IMO, the best complete quarterback out of college in years. I mean one for the ages. Unbelievable. Now if we can only get a real HC to maximize that good fortune....

 

[jwooten15]

People are bringing up dropped ints like that doesn't happen to every QB. The fact that you saw the drops doesn't mean Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers and Matt Ryan didn't throw potential interceptions that were dropped either.

I've never understood that argument either. As if trying to show that he wasn't ACTUALLY as good as his numbers said he was. I think Brady only threw 2 INT all year last season. But I remember seeing 2 drops that landed in a defender's hands (and I only watched 2-3 Patriots games all season).

 

[jwooten15]

Quite simply, he really is that good. He was single digits his sophomore and senior seasons. 11 his junior year which was the aberration.

The guy is phenomenal and his track record backs it up. I'll continue to sit back and enjoy how fortunate we are to have selected, IMO, the best complete quarterback out of college in years. I mean one for the ages. Unbelievable. Now if we can only get a real HC to maximize that good fortune....

Once-in-a-generation luck for the Cowboys!

Couldn't have happened to a more deserving organization! haha