kramskoi
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A look at the defenses of the seven likely NFC playoff contenders:
*negative numbers are better
..................................................Def.....Defensive..............TOTAL
.......Team...........*DVOA.......Rank...Hog...pass rtg..rk....ppg...wDVOA..trend
1..Green Bay.......[-18.4%]....1.....1t.......67.69...[4]...19.1...32.3...[+1.8]
2..Philadelphia....[-12.9%]....2.....1t.......72.53...[5]...19.6...24.8...[-6.1]
3..New Orleans....[-4.0%].....7.....12t......62.68...[2]...20.9...30.9...[-3.1]
4..New York.........[-1.6%].......11.....11......90.43...[22]...23.8...12.0....[-3.0]
5..Arizona............[-1.3%].......14.....10......80.99...[11]...19.5...28.6...[+4.3]
6..Minnesota........[-0.2%].......15......3.......91.20...[24]...19.4...25.1...[+0.4]
7..Dallas..............[+5.8%].....19.....15......88.41...[19]...17.8...20.0...[+2.6]
Green Bay continues to deepen on the defensive side of the ball and is the best rated in the NFL right now...past schedule notwithstanding...they are improving on offense as well...BUT...Tramon Williams will cost them down the stretch, as witnessed against Baltimore...they won't matchup well against New Orleans or Minnesota...
Philly and New Orleans round out an impressive defensive trio that look to have the best chance once the calendar flips to January...there's always injuries though...and Philadelphia's offense seems to be cooling off...
Minnesota is high on the Def hog but also high in defensive passer rating, as the Cardinals exposed last weekend...but they OWN Green Bay...well, Jared Allen anyways...
Arizona is enigmatic in that their defensive passer rating does'nt square with the play in the secondary, which was stellar against Favre and the Vikings...Warner has the offense performing well right now though...
New York may think that its problems are all solved with a Jacobs run and a Hixon return but they continue to slide in weighted DVOA [with the worst offense of the playoff contenders]...they have a tough road to hoe to the playoffs, unless Dallas lets them in [they can still ruin the Giants postseason aspirations ironically]
Dallas is undoubtedly the worst defense on paper, especially DVOA, but they can always overachieve, if that's possible down the stretch under Wade Phillips...here's hoping...besides PPG, bend but don't break is about the only thing you can say for the defense, especially when they can't generate a high degree of quarterback harrassment, as evidenced against New York...
...the secondary is starting to leak a little and this doomed them the last two seasons...if Hamlin is a difference maker then he needs to return in a hurry...safety play has cost this team too many times and in too many seasons down the stretch...
...the Dallas offense is on the rise though [24.9%] and Williams seems to be coming out of the deep-thaw...BUT...the running game?...it's plodding along when it should be at its most dynamic...considering Choice's performance last year in December, i'm not opposed to using the young man a little more than he has been, and not just in the wild-cat...Felix's involvment in the passing game could give a boost also...his returns have'nt been really notable...
...having been swept by New York, they now must sweep both PHI and WAS to make the post-season...who would've thought that at the beginning of the year?
---------------
Now some numbers that will LARGELY determine if Dallas will finish with a defensive DVOA in the plus range for the first time since the [6-10] 2004 season under Parcells:
San Diego [21.9%]
New Orleans [31.8%]
Philadelphia [12.8%]
...these are the 5th, 1st and 12th offensive teams by FO standards...Dallas will get two of them at home and will be favored in both...overachieve and win 3 of the last 4...win the division with some good seasoning and confidence...
...future strength of schedule?...
Dallas [2nd]
Philly [3rd]
NYG [4th]
...Footballlocks.com still has Dallas finishing 11-5 but Philadelphia is starting to tick upward from 10-6...they have the Giants at 10-6 but Green Bay [10-6] is also ticking upward toward 11-5...
...in a word, brutal schedule for all three teams, especially the Cowboys...one of these teams will not make the playoffs...i think Green Bay will do enough to go at least 10-6
*negative numbers are better
..................................................Def.....Defensive..............TOTAL
.......Team...........*DVOA.......Rank...Hog...pass rtg..rk....ppg...wDVOA..trend
1..Green Bay.......[-18.4%]....1.....1t.......67.69...[4]...19.1...32.3...[+1.8]
2..Philadelphia....[-12.9%]....2.....1t.......72.53...[5]...19.6...24.8...[-6.1]
3..New Orleans....[-4.0%].....7.....12t......62.68...[2]...20.9...30.9...[-3.1]
4..New York.........[-1.6%].......11.....11......90.43...[22]...23.8...12.0....[-3.0]
5..Arizona............[-1.3%].......14.....10......80.99...[11]...19.5...28.6...[+4.3]
6..Minnesota........[-0.2%].......15......3.......91.20...[24]...19.4...25.1...[+0.4]
7..Dallas..............[+5.8%].....19.....15......88.41...[19]...17.8...20.0...[+2.6]
Green Bay continues to deepen on the defensive side of the ball and is the best rated in the NFL right now...past schedule notwithstanding...they are improving on offense as well...BUT...Tramon Williams will cost them down the stretch, as witnessed against Baltimore...they won't matchup well against New Orleans or Minnesota...
Philly and New Orleans round out an impressive defensive trio that look to have the best chance once the calendar flips to January...there's always injuries though...and Philadelphia's offense seems to be cooling off...
Minnesota is high on the Def hog but also high in defensive passer rating, as the Cardinals exposed last weekend...but they OWN Green Bay...well, Jared Allen anyways...
Arizona is enigmatic in that their defensive passer rating does'nt square with the play in the secondary, which was stellar against Favre and the Vikings...Warner has the offense performing well right now though...
New York may think that its problems are all solved with a Jacobs run and a Hixon return but they continue to slide in weighted DVOA [with the worst offense of the playoff contenders]...they have a tough road to hoe to the playoffs, unless Dallas lets them in [they can still ruin the Giants postseason aspirations ironically]
Dallas is undoubtedly the worst defense on paper, especially DVOA, but they can always overachieve, if that's possible down the stretch under Wade Phillips...here's hoping...besides PPG, bend but don't break is about the only thing you can say for the defense, especially when they can't generate a high degree of quarterback harrassment, as evidenced against New York...
...the secondary is starting to leak a little and this doomed them the last two seasons...if Hamlin is a difference maker then he needs to return in a hurry...safety play has cost this team too many times and in too many seasons down the stretch...
...the Dallas offense is on the rise though [24.9%] and Williams seems to be coming out of the deep-thaw...BUT...the running game?...it's plodding along when it should be at its most dynamic...considering Choice's performance last year in December, i'm not opposed to using the young man a little more than he has been, and not just in the wild-cat...Felix's involvment in the passing game could give a boost also...his returns have'nt been really notable...
...having been swept by New York, they now must sweep both PHI and WAS to make the post-season...who would've thought that at the beginning of the year?
---------------
Now some numbers that will LARGELY determine if Dallas will finish with a defensive DVOA in the plus range for the first time since the [6-10] 2004 season under Parcells:
San Diego [21.9%]
New Orleans [31.8%]
Philadelphia [12.8%]
...these are the 5th, 1st and 12th offensive teams by FO standards...Dallas will get two of them at home and will be favored in both...overachieve and win 3 of the last 4...win the division with some good seasoning and confidence...
...future strength of schedule?...
Dallas [2nd]
Philly [3rd]
NYG [4th]
...Footballlocks.com still has Dallas finishing 11-5 but Philadelphia is starting to tick upward from 10-6...they have the Giants at 10-6 but Green Bay [10-6] is also ticking upward toward 11-5...
...in a word, brutal schedule for all three teams, especially the Cowboys...one of these teams will not make the playoffs...i think Green Bay will do enough to go at least 10-6
