Dallas defense of '06 vs '05. A quick analysis...

[MichaelWinicki]

I’ve taken a different approach in “gauging” how the proposed 2006 Dallas Cowboys’ defense will perform compared to the 2005 model.

Granted this is a very simplistic approach to it--- but hey I’m a simple guy.

Basically I’ve looked at both defenses at an exact moment in time (specifically the beginning of the ’05 season and the ’06 defense as it presently looks) and compared them… position by position.

I’ve ranked each player from 0-5.

5 being the best in the NFL… the very top of the class.
4 is probowl quality.
3 is a good player.
2 is an average player.
1 is a below average player.
0 is a very below average player.

Here are a couple of caveats BEFORE I give you my analysis…

1. I only graded the starters or whom I considered to be the starter at the time.
2. I’m only looking at “where they are as a contributor right now” I’m not basing my analysis on “potential”. So for you folks that get a little upset because I’ve graded your favorite young player lower than what you believe he should be just relax. Again I’m basing this on what I think they can contribute as a player at this very moment—not two or three years down the road.

Again, I’m comparing the units at single points in time… the 2005 unit as it prepares to start the season against San Diego and the 2006 unit, as it appears right at this very moment. And again, I’m just comparing the starters.

Henry ’05 rating- 3.0
Henry ’06 rating- 3.0

I think most of us considered Henry to be a good player as we started the ’05 season and I think his rating is about the same at this point. I don’t at this point consider him to be a pro-bowl caliber player.

Davis ’05 rating- 1.0
(black hole) ’06 rating- 1.0

In my opinion even from the preseason in ’05 it didn’t look like Davis was anything special at FS. Until I see something of any of the FS contenders in the preseason of ’06 I’ll have the leave this rating the same.

Roy ’05 rating- 4.0
Roy ’06 rating- 4.0

Roy is Roy. I don’t see much change either up or down for him.

Newman ’05 rating- 2.5
Newman ’06 rating- 4.5

Newman improved more than any player (IMHO) on the team from last year to this. Newman is this defenses’ best player—by far at this point.

Ware ’05 rating- 2.0
Ware ’06 rating- 2.5

I’m sure some folks won’t like this rating but I don’t yet consider Ware to be a “good player”. He has tremendous potential yes, but he’s still not a good player.

Brady ’05 rating- 1.5
Brady ’06 rating- 2.5

While I don’t think he’s a “good player” yet he is better than what he was at the start of the ’05 season.

Dat ’05 rating- 3.0
Akin ’06 rating- 2.5

Dat was a good player in my opinion. I think Akin is better than average but he’s going to have to prove to me that he’s as good as Dat was.

Singleton ’05 rating- 2.5
Carpenter ’06 rating- 2.0

I’m guessing that Carpenter will be the starter. Singleton is another guy that I think is slightly better than what people think. And while Carpenter has loads of potential that’s all it is at this point.

Coleman ’05 rating- 1.0
Spears ’06 rating- 2.0

I thought Coleman was a below average starter. I think at this point Spears is an average starter. Again Spears has loads of potential, but he’s not there yet.

Glover ’05 rating- 3.5
Ferguson ’06 rating- 2.5

While I thought Glover was no longer a pro-bowl caliber player at the beginning of ’05 I’m not that impressed with Ferguson. Just calling him slightly better than average might be a bit of a gift.
Ellis ’05 rating- 3.5
Canty ’06 rating- 2.5

I’ve always thought Ellis was a good defensive end. Just below the cusp of being a legit pro-bowler. Canty is a better player than what Spears is at this point but as of right now he’s better than average but not by much.

Total ’05 rating points: 27
Total ’06 rating points: 29

There it is, two points difference. Not a huge amount. But considering the ’05 squad finished 10th in the NFL in total defense a two-point boost may get a team up another notch.

The biggest challenges with the ’06 squad are:
1. The mess at free safety.
2. How much the young players like Spears, Canty, Carpenter (and to some extent Brady) can improve or show improvement between now and the start of the season.
3. The play of Ferguson. He came up “small” compared to Glover.

I could easily see another 3-4 rating points being added to this defense very quickly which would put it on the edge of being a top-5 ranked defense.

On the other hand losing a Newman could potentially cause big problems.

These are just my opinions... I would be interested in hearing yours.

 

[hendog]

Well let's see -

I'll rate this post a

























5 - very top of it's class.

Even though I'm going to allow myself to be alittle more optomistic. It is the preseason afterall.

 

[bobtheflob]

I'll mostly agree except on a couple of point. I think Spears, by the end of last year, was a pretty good player. Also, Dat was a better player than Akin, but within this system there probably won't be much of a difference. Akin will be the tackle machine that Dat used to be.

Edit: Woohoo, after a real slow start I've now gotten up to exactly 1.00 post a day.

 

[Paniolo22]

Henry 3.5- Big plays bump him up
Newman 4.0- Needs to hold on to INTs to be elite
Any FS other than Davis- 2.0
Spears 2.5- Came on at the end of season and played just as well as Canty
Ware 3.0- The guy is the focus of other offenses. He needs to be accounted for. Average players don't fall into that category.

 

[blindzebra]

I'd say you are too low on Henry, FS, Ware and Carpenter.

Henry, pre-injury, was having a pro bowl year. Was/is he better than Newman? No, but pro bowl is about INTs for a CB and Henry gets them. 3.5 from me.

FS, first I don't think it was as bad as many rant about from last year...FS did not directly cost us a single game in 2005...so 1 for Davis was too low. We now have 4 challengers for the spot and my guess is competition equals improvement. 2.5 from me.

As others have said, Ware was the target of all the pass protection. Teams could not expose him in the running game consistently, either. 3.5 with a good chance of moving into the 4+ range.

Carpenter isn't learning a new position, unlike Ware from last year, he's got everything you want in a 3-4 OLB. IMO, complete players...rookie or not...are never average. 2.5 is my grade, with him being a solid 3 before the year is out.

 

[RiggoForever]

Why was Newman not a Pro Bowler last year? Even as a Skins fan I think he was sold short by not being voted in as even an alternate.

 

[dougonthebench]

I think you've been at least fair on your assesments of the D.I hope your ratings of some of the players are too low.

 

[Billy Bullocks]

Dat may have been more of a playmaker, but ONLY in the 4-3. He got beat up in the 3-4, and he never really gelled in the system.

Newman only a 2? He was a shutdown player. That's pro bowl caliber. Ask around the league, he's up there.

I can't really argue with you at this point on much else though. I think we have a good defense at this point. If players develope into what we are hoping (Ware, Carpenter, Hatcher, Canty, Spears, Watkins), and our FA signings are more than effective (AA and Coleman), this defense could be downright scary.

 

[MichaelWinicki]

Dat may have been more of a playmaker, but ONLY in the 4-3. He got beat up in the 3-4, and he never really gelled in the system.

Newman only a 2? He was a shutdown player. That's pro bowl caliber. Ask around the league, he's up there.

I can't really argue with you at this point on much else though. I think we have a good defense at this point. If players develope into what we are hoping (Ware, Carpenter, Hatcher, Canty, Spears, Watkins), and our FA signings are more than effective (AA and Coleman), this defense could be downright scary.

I had Newman as a 2.5 at the beginning of the '05 season. I consider him to be a 4.5 now and the best defensive player on the team.

 

[Paniolo22]

I had Newman as a 2.5 at the beginning of the '05 season. I consider him to be a 4.5 now and the best defensive player on the team.

I agree with your original assessment. Newman had underperformed in '04, bt I still think 4.5 is a little high. Newman is a steadier player than Roy, but without the big plays, you can never truly be elite. He is getting there, but not there yet.

 

[Mansta54]

Newman a 2, sorry, but I stopped reading after that.

 

[MichaelWinicki]

Newman a 2, sorry, but I stopped reading after that.

Well you've proven you can't read then.

 

[Shaun]

He had a couple of games in '04 that he allowed some catches, but he also went several where he didn't allow any.

I don't see that he drops a lot of ints, just that other QB's are smart enough not to throw to him.

The people who say that isn't game-changing don't really have a clue.

 

[jterrell]

Its really tough to do because last season we lost Henry for about half a year and that 3.0 drops to 2.0 or whatever you give the Glenn/Jones combo. Same with Singleton and some other folks.

If you would have adjusted for injuries then we'd be about 10 points higher for this year but of course injuries can strike again this year.

Always interesting to do this type of thing but very tough without seeing how the rookies look and who is winning various jobs.

Depth is very, very important and it be cool to find a way to factor in something like half credit for the 2 at each position.

Glenn might be a 2.5 for instance as abackup cb so you allow 1.25 toward Newman's total for a Cb1 total.

Especially in a situation where there is little to no dropoff such as with Singleton.

 

[Juke99]

Good job Mikey...

The way I see it, regardless of how you rated players...the importance is the shift from last season to this...and think you're pretty much dead on with your evaluations.

Now, if you don't mind, I have to excuse myself in order to uke: over complimenting you.

 

[Crown Royal]

I agree with pretty much everything but davis. I would put him at a 2 for both last season and this season. Average player, nothing special, nothing great. Just average. I don't think he's below average.

 

[AdamJT13]

Ware ’06 rating- 2.5
Brady ’06 rating- 2.5
Akin ’06 rating- 2.5
Ferguson ’06 rating- 2.5
Canty ’06 rating- 2.5

I have a REALLY difficult time believing that DeMarcus Ware should be put at the same level as Bradie James, Akin Ayodele, Jason Ferguson and Chris Canty going into this season. Ware had almost as many sacks and tackles for loss last season as the other four players combined. (Ware's combined total was high enough to put him among the NFL leaders.) Whatever grade you give James, Ayodele, Ferguson or Canty, I'd put Ware at least a full notch above any of them.

Singleton ’05 rating- 2.5
Carpenter ’06 rating- 2.0

Aside from Singleton going into last season being rated the same as Ware going into this season -- which I don't think is remotely accurate -- I'd be disappointed if Carpenter this season was worse than Singleton at his peak. Al Singleton's performance should be the floor for Carpenter's performance expectations.

 

[MichaelWinicki]

Good job Mikey...

The way I see it, regardless of how you rated players...the importance is the shift from last season to this...and think you're pretty much dead on with your evaluations.

Now, if you don't mind, I have to excuse myself in order to uke: over complimenting you.

You bastid!

 

[MichaelWinicki]

I have a REALLY difficult time believing that DeMarcus Ware should be put at the same level as Bradie James, Akin Ayodele, Jason Ferguson and Chris Canty going into this season. Ware had almost as many sacks and tackles for loss last season as the other four players combined. (Ware's combined total was high enough to put him among the NFL leaders.) Whatever grade you give James, Ayodele, Ferguson or Canty, I'd put Ware at least a full notch above any of them.




Aside from Singleton going into last season being rated the same as Ware going into this season -- which I don't think is remotely accurate -- I'd be disappointed if Carpenter this season was worse than Singleton at his peak. Al Singleton's performance should be the floor for Carpenter's performance expectations.

Adam,

You make valid points. Perhaps I did rate Ware too low. I think if I were to do it over again I would probably give him a "3" at this point.

As far as Carpenter goes... I wouldn't be surprised that just his performance through training camp and the exhibition season puts him up at a 2.5 level.

I just have a tough time automatically giving any rookie a "good player" ranking without actually seeing him on the field some. Potential wise I think he's capable of being a "4" but he's not there yet.

 

[burmafrd]

Newman, Ware, Henry too low. Newman was playing well by the end of 2004- so you should have carried that rating into 2005. 3- 3.5 Henry up to his injury was on the way to the pro bowl. So he should be starting at around 3.5. By the way- rating a CB mostly on INT's is dumb. The BEST CB's do not get INT's because NO ONE THROWS AT THEM. Ware ended the season at around 3-3.5; he needs more consistency.