Dane Bruglar's Top 100-RB's

[xwalker]

If he can come in and play to his 5.1 YPC in 2020 I would be happy. His carries have gone down significantly his last two seasons as well as his YPC 4.2, 4.1. If he turns out to be a James Washington I'll be worried.

I'm OK with 4.1 ypc or better.

He a starter in 2020 and backup in 2021.

In 2022 he was signed by KC as the 2nd or 3rd RB but rookie Isiah Pacheco came out of nowhere and became their top RB.

 

[xwalker]

9

But you'd have to look at volume, too, otherwise you're again looking at the outliers. If 20 backs are drafted and four end up as starters, it seems kind of silly to focus on the few that turned into starters and think that's what you'll get. Sure, you can, but the percentages are against it.

Good point.

I think both types of analysis will show that the probability of success drops with each round.

Also I think the difference will be even larger when reviewing rookie season stats.

 

[gimmesix]

The Chiefs just won the Super Bowl with an UDFA at RB and the best rookie last year was a 4th rounder.

Again, those are outliers. There were four backs taken in the fourth round last year. Hassan Haskins had 93 rushing yards and averaged 3.7 per carry. Pierre Strong Jr. had 100 rushing yards but he did average 10 yards per carry. Zamir White had 70 rushing yards and 4.1 per carry. The first back taken in the fourth round, Dameon Pierce, is the only one who had any real success. So are happy with a 25 percent chance (and the only success coming at the top of the round)? And there were a couple of backs taken in the second round who weren't that great either, so Houston was real lucky to chance into Pierce

There have been starters found in every round and as UDFAs, but that doesn't mean it's easy or even normal. You have to be extremely lucky.

 

[morasp]

I'm OK with 4.1 ypc or better.

He a starter in 2020 and backup in 2021.

In 2022 he was signed by KC as the 2nd or 3rd RB but rookie Isiah Pacheco came out of nowhere and became their top RB.

I understand the cap move but on the whole I would say we would be worse at the position than last year which isn't a good direction to move.

 

[gimmesix]

9

Good point.

I think both types of analysis will show that the probability of success drops with each round.

Also I think the difference will be even larger when reviewing rookie season stats.

And I'm not necessarily advocating for taking a back in the first round. We have Pollard and we're paying him a lot of money this year. It's just the idea that it's easy to find them in any round ... or pretty much any position. You can find them, but draft history shows that it's not easy and the longer we wait, the more likely we'll end up with a miss. I guess we have a tendency to dream big before the draft, that every one of our draft picks is going to become a starter or even contributor despite the evidence that that doesn't happen.

I'm hoping because of the depth of this draft, we take a back before the end of the third round because I think the percentages of success are fairly good this year. After that, there may be some who experience NFL success, but there are going to be a whole lot who don't.

 

[xwalker]

And I'm not necessarily advocating for taking a back in the first round. We have Pollard and we're paying him a lot of money this year. It's just the idea that it's easy to find them in any round ... or pretty much any position. You can find them, but draft history shows that it's not easy and the longer we wait, the more likely we'll end up with a miss. I guess we have a tendency to dream big before the draft, that every one of our draft picks is going to become a starter or even contributor despite the evidence that that doesn't happen.

I'm hoping because of the depth of this draft, we take a back before the end of the third round because I think the percentages of success are fairly good this year. After that, there may be some who experience NFL success, but there are going to be a whole lot who don't.

In just doing a quick scan of starting NFL RBs, the 2nd round seems like a good spot.
Dalvin Cook
Nick Chubb
Derrick Henry
Joe Mixon
Jonathan Taylor
Cam Akers
.
.
.

 

[Mr_437]

Dallas has been lucky or good I don't know which to hit in the 4th round with their starting backfield. There's not a TP every year in the draft, keep in mind, he's a Top 5 RB arguably, so assume a player of his ilk will be there in any draft is risky drafting.

Hopefully the Cowboys pull the trigger on a RB with a premium pick to insure they get one of their guys. Deep draft at RB and an interesting case study moving forward. Great discussion guys, a pleasure to read.

 

[cnuball21]

Again, those are outliers. There were four backs taken in the fourth round last year. Hassan Haskins had 93 rushing yards and averaged 3.7 per carry. Pierre Strong Jr. had 100 rushing yards but he did average 10 yards per carry. Zamir White had 70 rushing yards and 4.1 per carry. The first back taken in the fourth round, Dameon Pierce, is the only one who had any real success. So are happy with a 25 percent chance (and the only success coming at the top of the round)? And there were a couple of backs taken in the second round who weren't that great either, so Houston was real lucky to chance into Pierce

There have been starters found in every round and as UDFAs, but that doesn't mean it's easy or even normal. You have to be extremely lucky.

They didn’t get the same number of carries so you can’t really compare those guys. It’s also partially scheme dependent and determined by good OL play.

I’m not saying it has to be the 4th round just don’t waste a 1st round pick on a RB.

 

[gimmesix]

They didn’t get the same number of carries so you can’t really compare those guys. It’s also partially scheme dependent and determined by good OL play.

I’m not saying it has to be the 4th round just don’t waste a 1st round pick on a RB.

Last year is certainly hard to compare, but this is something you can go back and look at over years. We can find a running back from the fourth round on because it has been done, but it is neither easy nor absolute, which is what we get in the bad habit of thinking when it comes to the draft.

It's a little like believing that you can easily find a corner in any round because we found DaRon Bland in the fifth last year, while ignoring our recent third-round (Wright) and second-round (Joseph) failures. I consider a fifth-rounder like Bland playing as well as he did a bonus, while some seem to consider it an expectation.

We were very fortunate with Pollard, especially when you look at all of the other backs drafted that year in the fourth round on, and maybe we'll get lucky again if we don't draft one until the fourth on this year in a RB-rich draft. But that shouldn't be the expectation because the numbers don't support it. If we find the diamond among a bunch of trash, then we should be very grateful. And that goes for any position.

Since 2016, we're essentially 6-5 in the fourth round (50-50 shot). Of course, sadly, depending on how you look at it, we haven't been much better in the second round over that time period ... some of those players stuck longer because of where they were drafted, but didn't turn out to be what you expect with a second-rounder (Jaylon Smith, Chidobe Awuzie, Connor Williams, Trysten Hill, Trevon Diggs, Kelvin Joseph and Sam Williams).

This is one reason the Joneses use (or lack thereof) of free agency is so frustrating. You just don't know what you are going to get in the draft and you have a 50-50 shot at best of getting it right.

 

[gimmesix]

In just doing a quick scan of starting NFL RBs, the 2nd round seems like a good spot.
Dalvin Cook
Nick Chubb
Derrick Henry
Joe Mixon
Jonathan Taylor
Cam Akers
.
.
.

There have definitely been some good years there and Henry is a good argument for us to have waited in 2016. Obviously, the hit percentage goes down some compared to the first round, but in a good year like this one, it may be worth taking the chance. Might can even wait until the third because of the depth in this draft, but you risk losing the ones you really think may turn out to be special and taking a chance on a potentially lesser player.

Like I've said, I'm not going to cry if we take Gibbs in the first because he's rated in that area and quite a bit higher than the next highest back. But if we don't, I hope we don't wait too long to take one believing that because we found Pollard in the fourth, we can find a back at any time, instead of understanding that he's an outlier. If we see a back we really like, then we probably should go after him in the second. We may can hope because of the depth that he'll drop to our third-round pick, but that's risky.

What has been shown is in those good RB draft years, teams will start gobbling them up in the second round.

 

[cnuball21]

Last year is certainly hard to compare, but this is something you can go back and look at over years. We can find a running back from the fourth round on because it has been done, but it is neither easy nor absolute, which is what we get in the bad habit of thinking when it comes to the draft.

It's a little like believing that you can easily find a corner in any round because we found DaRon Bland in the fifth last year, while ignoring our recent third-round (Wright) and second-round (Joseph) failures. I consider a fifth-rounder like Bland playing as well as he did a bonus, while some seem to consider it an expectation.

We were very fortunate with Pollard, especially when you look at all of the other backs drafted that year in the fourth round on, and maybe we'll get lucky again if we don't draft one until the fourth on this year in a RB-rich draft. But that shouldn't be the expectation because the numbers don't support it. If we find the diamond among a bunch of trash, then we should be very grateful. And that goes for any position.

Since 2016, we're essentially 6-5 in the fourth round (50-50 shot). Of course, sadly, depending on how you look at it, we haven't been much better in the second round over that time period ... some of those players stuck longer because of where they were drafted, but didn't turn out to be what you expect with a second-rounder (Jaylon Smith, Chidobe Awuzie, Connor Williams, Trysten Hill, Trevon Diggs, Kelvin Joseph and Sam Williams).

This is one reason the Joneses use (or lack thereof) of free agency is so frustrating. You just don't know what you are going to get in the draft and you have a 50-50 shot at best of getting it right.

Which is why I said “it doesn’t have to be a 4th round pick just don’t waste a 1st.”

 

[gimmesix]

Which is why I said “it doesn’t have to be a 4th round pick just don’t waste a 1st.”

I don't think it would be a waste of a first. Again, I'm not advocating taking a back in the first, but I have trouble believing that you are wasting a pick if the player plays at a high level for five years while you incur greater risk of not finding a player to play at a high level by waiting.

The juggling act is that this holds true at every position (some more than others) and you only have one first-round pick. All things being equal, I'd take my chances on a quality RB being available in the second in a deeper RB class than a quality DT (if either Bresee or Kancey are available). I feel the same way if Broderick Jones or Darnell Wright is available when we pick.

Less so about the receivers, cornerbacks or tight ends. We've had particular later round success with tight ends, so I feel there's a good chance we can find one later to compete with Ferguson and Hendershot at another deep draft position. Receiver and cornerback for me would strongly depend on who is available since we are at least three-deep at both spots this year. Obviously, if someone drops there, we don't want to ignore it.

 

[cnuball21]

I don't think it would be a waste of a first. Again, I'm not advocating taking a back in the first, but I have trouble believing that you are wasting a pick if the player plays at a high level for five years while you incur greater risk of not finding a player to play at a high level by waiting.

The juggling act is that this holds true at every position (some more than others) and you only have one first-round pick. All things being equal, I'd take my chances on a quality RB being available in the second in a deeper RB class than a quality DT (if either Bresee or Kancey are available). I feel the same way if Broderick Jones or Darnell Wright is available when we pick.

Less so about the receivers, cornerbacks or tight ends. We've had particular later round success with tight ends, so I feel there's a good chance we can find one later to compete with Ferguson and Hendershot at another deep draft position. Receiver and cornerback for me would strongly depend on who is available since we are at least three-deep at both spots this year. Obviously, if someone drops there, we don't want to ignore it.

It would be a waste in the 1st because it’s one of the cheapest positions in football and you’re missing out on getting one of the most expensive positions in football for cheap for 5 years.

That and there hasn’t been a 1st round RB in the last decade plus that got his team over the hump to a super bowl win.

 

[gimmesix]

It would be a waste in the 1st because it’s one of the cheapest positions in football and you’re missing out on getting one of the most expensive positions in football for cheap for 5 years.

That and there hasn’t been a 1st round RB in the last decade plus that got his team over the hump to a super bowl win.

Name a first-rounder in the last decade plus that got his team over the hump to a super bowl win. That's a lot to put on any one player. Usually, a team gets over the hump with several strategic moves in addition to whoever the first-rounder was.

Let's use Aaron Donald as an example. Great first-round pick in 2014, but his team didn't win the Super Bowl until seven years and several moves later.

Now, it would be different if there were no first-round RBs whose teams won the Super Bowl, but we have our own Tony Dorsett and Emmitt Smith to look to to know that isn't true. If you only want to limit it to the last decade, I'm sure there are quite a few positions that would fall into that same category.

 

[cnuball21]

Name a first-rounder in the last decade plus that got his team over the hump to a super bowl win. That's a lot to put on any one player. Usually, a team gets over the hump with several strategic moves in addition to whoever the first-rounder was.

Let's use Aaron Donald as an example. Great first-round pick in 2014, but his team didn't win the Super Bowl until seven years and several moves later.

Now, it would be different if there were no first-round RBs whose teams won the Super Bowl, but we have our own Tony Dorsett and Emmitt Smith to look to to know that isn't true. If you only want to limit it to the last decade, I'm sure there are quite a few positions that would fall into that same category.

Well of course no individual player is going to win his team the super bowl that wasn’t really my point…I’ve heard multiple propelled claim how special Bijan is but it wouldn’t matter. We had one of the best run games in football last year and it changed nothing. Granted Pollard against SF but still.

Miles Sanders is a pro bowl RB that just signed for a little over 6 million a year. Jakob Meyers has never sniffed a pro bowl and just signed for almost double that at 11 million a year.

 

[Spottswoode]

We have Pollard and we're paying him a lot of money this year. It's just the idea that it's easy to find them in any round ... or pretty much any position.

I think there is a valid case for and against Bijan. I’m against but am fine if they choose for. However, I don’t think most people are saying any round, just R3 & 4 this year. There will probably be 4 backs chosen by end of R2. This draft is at minimum 12 deep with high quality. You can likely get guys like Tyjae, Zach, or Israel in the 3rd and Roschon, Tank, or McBride in the 4th. Those are not high risk RB’s that you have to stretch to project. If you think Bijan is that much better than those players relative to what else is available at 26, then you pick him and move on. Personally, I would draft McBride in the 4th (maybe 5th) and glue a ball in his hand until camp.

 

[gimmesix]

I think there is a valid case for and against Bijan. I’m against but am fine if they choose for. However, I don’t think most people are saying any round, just R3 & 4 this year. There will probably be 4 backs chosen by end of R2. This draft is at minimum 12 deep with high quality. You can likely get guys like Tyjae, Zach, or Israel in the 3rd and Roschon, Tank, or McBride in the 4th. Those are not high risk RB’s that you have to stretch to project. If you think Bijan is that much better than those players relative to what else is available at 26, then you pick him and move on. Personally, I would draft McBride in the 4th (maybe 5th) and glue a ball in his hand until camp.

You are going against the draft percentages if you think you can find high-quality backs in the fourth round and beyond. Some may slip through, but as I've shown in another thread, most of them fail. Actually finding a player like Pollard is the exception and not the rule.

The year Pollard was selected was also considered to be a good running back draft, but from the fourth round on, he's the only one out of 16 who has been a top contributor for his team. If you feel this year is different, you can go back and look at past drafts and see that missing on a back from the fourth round on is far easier than finding one.

I prefer that we take one by at least the second round if the value is right or in the third, even if it takes a trade to get the one we want. There's a whole lot of fail waiting after the third round. Maybe we'll get lucky again, but the odds are against it.

 

[gimmesix]

Well of course no individual player is going to win his team the super bowl that wasn’t really my point…I’ve heard multiple propelled claim how special Bijan is but it wouldn’t matter. We had one of the best run games in football last year and it changed nothing. Granted Pollard against SF but still.

Miles Sanders is a pro bowl RB that just signed for a little over 6 million a year. Jakob Meyers has never sniffed a pro bowl and just signed for almost double that at 11 million a year.

If we drafted Robinson, he would be just a piece of the puzzle. Every piece matters, and you want to have the best you can at all positions. I don't consider running back to be any less important. The position just doesn't have the long-term durability of other positions, so it generally isn't worth investing a second contract.

Some would rather we draft a receiver this year with the first-round pick even though we've got one we just paid, another we're looking to pay and just traded for one. I can't understand the value of that over a player we need more because our starter is coming off a major injury and our backup is a bargain castoff.

 

[Spottswoode]

You are going against the draft percentages if you think you can find high-quality backs in the fourth round and beyond. Some may slip through, but as I've shown in another thread, most of them fail. Actually finding a player like Pollard is the exception and not the rule.

The year Pollard was selected was also considered to be a good running back draft, but from the fourth round on, he's the only one out of 16 who has been a top contributor for his team. If you feel this year is different, you can go back and look at past drafts and see that missing on a back from the fourth round on is far easier than finding one.

I prefer that we take one by at least the second round if the value is right or in the third, even if it takes a trade to get the one we want. There's a whole lot of fail waiting after the third round. Maybe we'll get lucky again, but the odds are against it.

I’m not going to argue with you and I don’t need a history lesson. Like I said, this year is loaded and if it were me, I would trade down for someone who can’t live without him. Even though no one picked him in the first 25 picks, I’m sure every other team would be drooling for him.

Edit: And I said 3rd & 4th (depends on who is still around) not sure why you are stuck on 4th round. I told you the backs that I thought would be there. You can make your own judgement on their value.

 

[iceberg]

Think we are going to get a lot of different opinions with this positional grouping:

7-Robinson
20-Gibbs-Combine
61-Achane-Combine
62-Charbonnet
67-Spears-private workout
88-Bigsby-Combine
90-Johnson-Combine

Notice there are a ton of backs still available after the top 100, which makes taking a high RB very risky, some ranked past 100:

-Miller-Combine, 30 Visit
-Evans-30 Visit
-Abanikanda-Combine
-McIntosh-Senior Bowl
-Gray-Combine
-Chase Brown

top 100 RBs in the upcoming draft? so what, 3 RB's per a team and still more to go? not sure im understanding this right.