DC.com: Draft show 1/18

[Oh_Canada]

The 4th round always seems to be the Cowboys gamble round. Take a shot at a small school guy or a guy with great athleticism.

Stanback
AOA
Arkin
Matt Johnson
Free
McGee

Almost seems like they are just trying to hit home runs in that round.

Uhhh, yeah maybe they should reconsider that philosophy.

 

[Deep_Freeze]

I dont see Warmack getting past 10. some might call me crazy but guy is something else. Louis Nix is going to be a top Dt next yrs draft. And Warmack destroyed him in the title game.

Im not going to put my opinion on Vaccarro because its biased in the negative. Id rather the team go later on S. Round 2 would do it for me

Hard to really predict what their grades will be, and its not like we will know what the grades are for both from the Cowboys. Guards drop, just a fact of life, but with neither being a premium position I would still look for a pass rusher taken over both a guard or a safety if a pass rusher gets the grade from the Cowboys.

Both guard and safety can be found later, pass rushers usually can't be found later as easily, especially edge rushers. But again, all depends on how they grade out according to the Cowboys.

 

[Gaede]

I dont see Warmack getting past 10. some might call me crazy but guy is something else. Louis Nix is going to be a top Dt next yrs draft. And Warmack destroyed him in the title game.

Im not going to put my opinion on Vaccarro because its biased in the negative. Id rather the team go later on S. Round 2 would do it for me

He will. Teams in the top 10 are generally bad and drafting a guard does nothing to help them. I think he'll be available around 15.

 

[junk]

Uhhh, yeah maybe they should reconsider that philosophy.

I agree, but doesn't that seem to be the trend?

I like the 4th round because you can mine some contributors/starters in that round.

I think the Dallas front office has a hard time projecting guys at times. 4th round is a good place to find guys that can contribute, but maybe not in a starting capacity.

 

[jjktkk]

Uhhh, yeah maybe they should reconsider that philosophy.

Most, if not all NFL teams, share the same philsophy. But Dallas has definitely been bad at finding some players in the 4th round in recent drafts.

 

[Eskimo]

The 4th round always seems to be the Cowboys gamble round. Take a shot at a small school guy or a guy with great athleticism.

Stanback
AOA
Arkin
Matt Johnson
Free
McGee

Almost seems like they are just trying to hit home runs in that round.

I remember last year someone put up the probability that players drafted in different rounds ever pan out as starters. I think 4th round was somewhere around 20-25% meaning the vast majority never pan out. I also remember it indicating that on average you only get about 1 starter from rounds 3-7 from a typical draft. The major point being that round 1 and 2 is where you have your best chance at finding good players who will be starters and then it really drops off fast.

I do think we should focus on big schools and players who have competed at the highest level at that point (Div I) before looking for small school players.

 

[Biggems]

The 4th round always seems to be the Cowboys gamble round. Take a shot at a small school guy or a guy with great athleticism.

Stanback
AOA
Arkin
Matt Johnson
Free
McGee

Almost seems like they are just trying to hit home runs in that round.

So just throw that pick at DL Brandon Williams......I honestly believe he will turn our 4th round foolishness into something we will look back on and be very happy with.

 

[junk]

I remember last year someone put up the probability that players drafted in different rounds ever pan out as starters. I think 4th round was somewhere around 20-25% meaning the vast majority never pan out. I also remember it indicating that on average you only get about 1 starter from rounds 3-7 from a typical draft. The major point being that round 1 and 2 is where you have your best chance at finding good players who will be starters and then it really drops off fast.

I do think we should focus on big schools and players who have competed at the highest level at that point (Div I) before looking for small school players.

I'm not even that concerned with necessarily finding a starter. If you can, that's great. But if you can't, find a contributor and find depth. Or find a guy that just produced at a large school.

Marion Barber is a good example. He certainly never panned out as a starter, but he provided good depth, change of pace and filled a nice role as a goal line back for a period in Dallas.

I just feel like there are too many good players that can fill a role in the 4th that you should be swinging for the fences all the time. I do think Dallas struggles to use role players at times so that could be part of the problem as well.

 

[junk]

I'm not even that concerned with necessarily finding a starter. If you can, that's great. But if you can't, find a contributor and find depth. Or find a guy that just produced at a large school.

Marion Barber is a good example. He certainly never panned out as a starter, but he provided good depth, change of pace and filled a nice role as a goal line back for a period in Dallas.

I just feel like there are too many good players that can fill a role in the 4th that you should be swinging for the fences all the time. I do think Dallas struggles to use role players at times so that could be part of the problem as well.

Shouldn't. Wouldn't let me edit for some reason.

 

[Leadbelly]

I remember last year someone put up the probability that players drafted in different rounds ever pan out as starters. I think 4th round was somewhere around 20-25% meaning the vast majority never pan out. I also remember it indicating that on average you only get about 1 starter from rounds 3-7 from a typical draft. The major point being that round 1 and 2 is where you have your best chance at finding good players who will be starters and then it really drops off fast.

I do think we should focus on big schools and players who have competed at the highest level at that point (Div I) before looking for small school players.

Worse than that. Chance of finding a starter in the 4th round is around 9% and finding depth is maybe 28%. With increments at every 10%, it's hard to tell exact % in this chart.

http://realcavsfans.com/showthread.php?38395-NFL-Draft-Success-by-Round

4th rounders are fools' gold. Teams go home after round 3 thinking there's all this talent left at the top of the 4th. They would have been better served in using it to trade up and ensure they get who they want higher in round 2 or 3.

 

[TheCount]

Let me share a tip here. If we were picking in the bottom half of the Draft, it would be a weak draft that was devoid of talent for us that late. If we were picking in the top 5, it would be a weak draft that meant we were going to take a guy who wasn't up to par and need.

The fact of the matter is at 18 there are plenty of options for this team.

He's not saying it's a weak draft and that there aren't options. He's saying that 18, you might run out of guys you put 1st round grades on, that's a bad position for obvious reasons.

You'd like to take a guy in the 1st you have a 1st round grade on, but (almost) every years teams draft 1 through 32, so obviously it doesn't mean you bail on the selection.

 

[slomoxn]

The 4th round always seems to be the Cowboys gamble round. Take a shot at a small school guy or a guy with great athleticism.

Stanback
AOA
Arkin
Matt Johnson
Free
McGee

Almost seems like they are just trying to hit home runs in that round.

looking at that list they should just draft bpa and go for the double because so far they are 0 for 5 with 6 still pending.

 

[jterrell]

Wasnt there a report or something that said if Dallas wouldve stayed it wouldve been Brockers and not DeCastro? I thought i read that somewhere on this site.

yes, Brockers at 18, Wagner at 45 if they stayed in those spots and draft went as planned.

 

[jterrell]

He's not saying it's a weak draft and that there aren't options. He's saying that 18, you might run out of guys you put 1st round grades on, that's a bad position for obvious reasons.

You'd like to take a guy in the 1st you have a 1st round grade on, but (almost) every years teams draft 1 through 32, so obviously it doesn't mean you bail on the selection.

He's clearly indicating there are only 15 or 16 guys with true r1 grades this year.

That makes zero sense because he admits he hasn't watched many of the players yet.

If heading into the draft there are 15 or 16 r1 guys in the Dallas board then it will be tough. We can't afford to move up and will need to hope a couple other teams reach ahead of us.

But end of the day a player at 18 can and will start in this team or the drafting went wrong.

 

[TheCount]

He's clearly indicating there are only 15 or 16 guys with true r1 grades this year.

That makes zero sense because he admits he hasn't watched many of the players yet.

If heading into the draft there are 15 or 16 r1 guys in the Dallas board then it will be tough. We can't afford to move up and will need to hope a couple other teams reach ahead of us.

But end of the day a player at 18 can and will start in this team or the drafting went wrong.

I didn't listen, so I don't know if he said there were only "15 or 16" guys, like you say, LatinMind certainly didn't put that in his recap. I do know that scouts don't have 32 guys with 1st round grades going into a draft, so I think he was saying that based on his past experience, the 18th spot might be a tough spot to find a guy sitting there that you had a 1st round grade on.

Again, a team having just 15 (or so) players with 1st round grades is normal. It doesn't mean you don't see a 16th guy you would be happy to take when your number is called.

 

[big dog cowboy]

If heading into the draft there are 15 or 16 r1 guys in the Dallas board then it will be tough. We can't afford to move up and will need to hope a couple other teams reach ahead of us.

It happens every year.

 

[The Realist]

We do best in rounds in 3-4 taking postions where it is easy to get guys on the field early (3-4 DE, RB) vs WR, OL.......

 

[Eddie]

yes, Brockers at 18, Wagner at 45 if they stayed in those spots and draft went as planned.

Just outta curiosity, how did these guys perform last year?

 

[Hoofbite]

I love how every draft there's only a few players who can give you "value".

Picking any later than like 14 and you're screwed, apparently.

 

[rwalters31]

DeCastro was also over-rated by a lot of people last year.:

He was still 6 levels higher than we had on the OL last year.: