DC: Cowboys’ Late First Round Pick Prompts Debate About Need Vs. Best Available

[Hardline]

Would you draft Cameron serving? He is the best center and can play guard and Rt.

I would happily draft him.

 

[Frosty]

I call it near-BPA. There are only a few positions that the Cowboys shouldn't draft at #27 if that is the BPA. I would cross QB and probably TE off the list, but just about any other position could be a consideration.

What do you think if Dorial Green-Beckham is setting there at 27 or as a trade down and the BPA. Would the Cowboys consider drafting a WR. Possibly as a future DEZ replacement. Franchise DEZ and give Beckham a year or two to get seasoned and then cut DEZ. Beckham would be on a rookie contract vs DEZ on a $100Mil? Can you see the Cowboys passing up on another Randy Moss type player. Off field issues but one heck of a player on the field.

 

[Doc50]

I call it near-BPA. There are only a few positions that the Cowboys shouldn't draft at #27 if that is the BPA. I would cross QB and probably TE off the list, but just about any other position could be a consideration.

In the rating system they use to construct the board, there has to be a grade for need - a measure of how critical the player is to the Cowboys current system and roster.
For instance, a 3-4 team would logically have a much higher value ranking for that type of OLB than a 4-3 team.

So, "BPA on our board" would be a better way of expressing that -- BPOOB.

Or, best on our board - BOOB.

 

[xwalker]

In the rating system they use to construct the board, there has to be a grade for need - a measure of how critical the player is to the Cowboys current system and roster.
For instance, a 3-4 team would logically have a much higher value ranking for that type of OLB than a 4-3 team.

So, "BPA on our board" would be a better way of expressing that -- BPOOB.

Or, best on our board - BOOB.

The Cowboys say they don't build need into the board because then the decision makers at draft time will also consider need.

In terms of system fit, that would be a big part of the ranking in terms of creating their board. The Cowboys starting making their draft board smaller a few years ago. They went from about 240 to about 120 prospects on their board. You will miss out on some players this way, but you are more likely to avoid busts because you only have players on the board that you really like and have investigated in detail.

My definition of BPA is that the team has a draft board with prospects in order. Drafting BPA would be taking the top player on the board. That's how I did my Kiper Invitational draft. I created a draft board and asked that the people running the draft just take the top rated player on my list that was still available.

 

[xwalker]

What do you think if Dorial Green-Beckham is setting there at 27 or as a trade down and the BPA. Would the Cowboys consider drafting a WR. Possibly as a future DEZ replacement. Franchise DEZ and give Beckham a year or two to get seasoned and then cut DEZ. Beckham would be on a rookie contract vs DEZ on a $100Mil? Can you see the Cowboys passing up on another Randy Moss type player. Off field issues but one heck of a player on the field.

In general, I think they would draft a WR in the 1st if that was indeed the BPA. I think they would have drafted Odell Beckham last year if he had been available and Martin was already taken. They might have drafted him even if Martin was available, but I'm not certain.

In regards to DGB, I just don't know enough about his character issues to say anything definitively about him. If they were confident that his issues wouldn't be a big problem, then yes I think that they would consider drafting him.

If they ended up with a super talented WR, then they could let Dez move on in a year or two and use that money to fill a need in free agency. In the interim, they would have both of them.

 

[Floatyworm]

Yeah, that is an interesting debate.

So, it's settled. If you make draft picks based on need over ability, you are a draft moron.

Good talk.

It's an interesting debate because I learned one thing from our Mel Kiper Invitational Mock draft.....I faced that very same dilema in our mock in round 1.....BPA available (WR Green- Beckham) vs Need (Lber Paul Dawson)......

I was so close to taking Beckham.......but in the end took the safer player.....because of the off the field concerns. I guess that makes me a moron.

 

[Pessimist_cowboy]

If we don't sign Murray , we'll take Gordon or Gurley if they're there . Simple.

 

[AzorAhai]

BPA according to need. Doesn't sound as efficient/sexy, but that Is how players are selected. All the pre-draft talk revolves around team needs and the value at THOSE positions. If those players at need positions are gone, then the BPA talk comes up. BPA seems to start later in the draft (post round 1).

Pre draft talk means nothing. After the 1st 10 or so picks every year every mock draft I have read ends up being Incredibly inaccurate. Teams dont just pick a bpa at a position of need, nor do they do a pure bpa approach either. Its been detailed over and over again that players are ranked and sorted by tiers of players and if a need is in that top tier available then thats usually the pick. If a need, big need or minor need, isnt available, good front offices pick the bpa in that tier or trade down to maneuver around with the pick to reach another tier with better value/need players.

 

[BigStar]

Pre draft talk means nothing. After the 1st 10 or so picks every year every mock draft I have read ends up being Incredibly inaccurate. Teams dont just pick a bpa at a position of need, nor do they do a pure bpa approach either. Its been detailed over and over again that players are ranked and sorted by tiers of players and if a need is in that top tier available then thats usually the pick. If a need, big need or minor need, isnt available, good front offices pick the bpa in that tier or trade down to maneuver around with the pick to reach another tier with better value/need players.

I think we agree but your version sounds much better.

 

[ConstantReboot]

He was highly rated by everyone. Like Bobby Carpenter, most folks had him rated high. Just didn't work out

Claiborne was a terrible pick. He had 2nd trade talent on him and yet people thought he was Deion II. I watched enough film of him to know he wasn't worthy of a trade-up. I don't know what the scouts saw in him to warrant such high praise.

 

[darthseinfeld]

I don't think they would have a Center-Only ranked as the BPA in the early rounds. If the BPA is a Guard/Center then it's possible that they would do it. They had a trade setup last year to get a 3rd round pick and draft OG Trai Turner, but he was picked a few spots ahead of where that pick would have been. I think they were going to give up a 2015 2nd to get that 2014 3rd.

They really seem to value intiror OL that can play multiple positions. I can see them having Erving very high on there board

 

[MagicMan]

LOL, this reminds me of going to the race track after reading all the systems on picking winners and applying them going in. You start losing every freaking race, and by the end of the day, you find yourself picking them on their names or pretty colors. Or worse yet, who the guy in front of you is picking.....after all, he may know more than you do, right? THAT is the NFL draft. Crap shoot..........

"Everyone has a plan 'till they get punched in the mouth".-----Mike Tyson

 

[xwalker]

They really seem to value intiror OL that can play multiple positions. I can see them having Erving very high on there board

He is one of my favorite players. He looks like a day 1 starter for most teams and can literally play any position on the OL.

 

[SuspectCorner]

ultimately - it's all a crap shoot... go with projected BPA - slanted towards 'position of need'. then prepare to be disappointed. it's all you can do.

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

ha you mean like Claiborne?

Or a Sharriff Floyd....it happens. You can miss on BPA's. Chances are.....when there is a BPA that falls....there's a reason.

 

[DFWJC]

Yeah, I know it sounds good to say, "We take the best available player", but it's one of the most overused and cliched terms when it comes to the draft. No team drafts purely on who the best available player is.

No, but many or most are smart enough to know that you put players in tiers and pull need out of the BPA tier. Then you have a better shot of getting the best of both worlds.

The massive mistakes happen when you have a clear talent break and your top ranking tier has only players not considered a top need...and you drop down to the next tier and take a need player.
That's a huge mistake and can kill a draft.

Take a player from your top remaining tier or try to trade down

 

[DFWJC]

Or a Sharriff Floyd....it happens. You can miss on BPA's. Chances are.....when there is a BPA that falls....there's a reason.

It might be premature on Floyd,btw.
The guy could very well end up being a multi Pro Bowler.

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

It might be premature on Floyd,btw.
The guy could very well end up being a multi Pro Bowler.

He very well could. My point was more so about him falling in the draft. There was a reason he fell. He may prove everyone wrong.

 

[TwoCentPlain]

Would you draft Cameron serving? He is the best center and can play guard and Rt.

Yeah, I would draft OL Cameron Erving. He can play all 5 OL spots. Versatile OL are always a plus. And, most importantly, I think Erving can be as good a RT or G as Frederick is a center. I'll gladly take Smith-Leary-Frederick-Martin-Erving as my OL. Sign Free or Parnell and Erving wouldn't have to start immediately and would only start if he earned it.