DC: Mock Draft Roundup: Defensive End, Running Back Are Early Favorites For 27th Pick

[Eric_Boyer]

We have 3 DEs right now with DLaw, Mincey, and now Hardy. History shows us that 4th DEs generally don't play that many snaps with us (especially not with guys like that leading the charge). We might need a 4th for injury this year, but I don't know if that's what you want to do with your first round pick, and Mincey is quite honestly a good #3 DE.

2 of our 3 DE's will be UFA's at years end, and the other one has been healthy for 50% of his career.

taking a DE early would fit a need.

 

[endersdragon]

2 of our 3 DE's will be UFA's at years end, and the other one has been healthy for 50% of his career.

taking a DE early would fit a need.

A need we will maybe have next year where we will have a hard time evaluating him this year. Beyond that, like I said, we have $35 million or so in cap space for 2014 with the ability to make more fairly easily with Tyron Smith's, Brandon Carr's, and yes, Tony Romo's contract, In addition to this we are only really set to lose Crawford, who will likely get a long term contract, Dez same, and Hardy same, from our pool of starters. In short IF both Hardy and Mincey leave, they can be replaced with that kind of money fairly easily. I am just not that worried about DE right now. If it is the BPA sure, if not look somewhere else.

 

[Deep_Freeze]

I don't think Dallas has that luxury. If your coming off Super Bowl and your sitting all the way back there in 1st round then you take BPA. This is not that team. Dallas has two critical positions that I don't even know who the starters are (RB & CB) and I don't think Cowboys know either. We have Hardy, Dez and Crawford on expiring contracts this year. Dallas is going for it NOW. That means your throwing all your darts at positions were you need starters. McFadden is nothing more than 3rd down options and I don't think Randle or Williams even make it out of camp. Your drafted RB needs to be impact. Its unreasonable, its unfair but it is what it is.

Well we will have to agree to disagree cause I totally disagree with this mentality. When you pick early, you have more control over predicting who will be there when you pick cause there are only a few players with that high of grade. As low as we will be in this draft, and yes 27 is pretty close to the Super Bowl teams draft picks, we have to sit back and see what actually falls to us.

IF a player from our first tier is still there, he is worth the pick instead of reaching for some guy in a lower tier just to fill a need. It has been shown time and time again how badly need based drafting turns out so I don't need to outline that here. Sure you should have an eye on need, but the draft is about adding talent, not filling holes especially the later you are in the draft.

 

[theogt]

His 3 cone was 8th out of 13 for DE so not great. The test is the eye and I haven't watched him.

The surgeries were for rotator cuff being frayed. Not as bad as ischemic necrosis but I don't know hip RC that well.

I'm not sure why you're focusing on the 3-cone. This guy isn't exactly a tweener type that would be drafted by a 3-4 team, so it matters much less -- he isn't dropping into coverage. His 3-cone may be average but all of his other numbers are eye popping.

 

[jobberone]

I'm not sure why you're focusing on the 3-cone. This guy isn't exactly a tweener type that would be drafted by a 3-4 team, so it matters much less -- he isn't dropping into coverage. His 3-cone may be average but all of his other numbers are eye popping.

I'm not focusing on it. I'm merely pointing out he doesn't possess rare athleticism for an edge rusher. I haven't seen film but others who have say he doesn't have that bend you're looking for in a weakside edge rusher.

The reason to mention that is he sounds like a Lawrence clone. I consider Lawrence an upgrade over Spencer and Mincey whom I see as an offside rusher. If we don't resign Spencer then Ogdee is a good replacement IMO. I'd rather use that pick on a true edge rusher (whom is likely not there for value at 27) or use it on another position. He's not a bad pick at 27. He's a good pick at least. And we may need him.

He's just not my optimal edge rusher. And I could be very wrong as I've limited views of this guy on film.

 

[theogt]

I'm not focusing on it. I'm merely pointing out he doesn't possess rare athleticism for an edge rusher. I haven't seen film but others who have say he doesn't have that bend you're looking for in a weakside edge rusher.

The reason to mention that is he sounds like a Lawrence clone. I consider Lawrence an upgrade over Spencer and Mincey whom I see as an offside rusher. If we don't resign Spencer then Ogdee is a good replacement IMO. I'd rather use that pick on a true edge rusher (whom is likely not there for value at 27) or use it on another position. He's not a bad pick at 27. He's a good pick at least. And we may need him.

He's just not my optimal edge rusher. And I could be very wrong as I've limited views of this guy on film.

It's an odd statement to say that a guy who bested Demarcus Ware in 3 out of 5 athleticism drills at the combine, all while being 16 lbs heavier doesn't "possess rare athleticism."

Years ago, I developed a formula for that reduced all combine statistics into a single metric by weighting each combine statistic (including weight, height, 40 time, shuttle, etc.) such that I could reduce them to a comparable number with virtually identical variance across all participants and metrics. Based on that formula, guys like Ware and Mario Williams were off the chart because their extreme athleticism relative to their size. See here for an example post using the formula:

http://cowboyszone.com/threads/theogts-3-4-olb-rankings.86121/

And here's one showing just how this formula made Calvin Johnson look like a freak:

http://cowboyszone.com/threads/theogts-wr-rankings.86271/

Now, using this same formula, let's look at OO compared with some other players in history (using just the athleticism component):

Mario Williams - 137.4
Owamagbe Odigizhuwa - 134.5
DeMarcus Ware - 134.3
Kamerion Wimbley - 132.2
Jadeveon Clowney - 131.6
Adalius Thomas - 130.1
Kevin Burnett - 127.6
Spencer, Anthony - 127.0
Jason Hatcher - 125.5
Shaun Phillips - 125.1
Demarcus Lawrence - 123.0

Like I said, he is a physical freak that looks like a Ware clone. That statement is based both on his EXTREMELY rare athleticism plus looking at him in games (i.e., he looks eerily similar to Ware on the field).

 

[jobberone]

It's an odd statement to say that a guy who bested Demarcus Ware in 3 out of 5 athleticism drills at the combine, all while being 16 lbs heavier doesn't "possess rare athleticism."

Years ago, I developed a formula for that reduced all combine statistics into a single metric by weighting each combine statistic (including weight, height, 40 time, shuttle, etc.) such that I could reduce them to a comparable number with virtually identical variance across all participants and metrics. Based on that formula, guys like Ware and Mario Williams were off the chart because their extreme athleticism relative to their size. See here for an example post using the formula:

http://cowboyszone.com/threads/theogts-3-4-olb-rankings.86121/

And here's one showing just how this formula made Calvin Johnson look like a freak:

http://cowboyszone.com/threads/theogts-wr-rankings.86271/

Now, using this same formula, let's look at OO compared with some other players in history (using just the athleticism component):

Mario Williams - 137.4
Owamagbe Odigizhuwa - 134.5
DeMarcus Ware - 134.3
Kamerion Wimbley - 132.2
Jadeveon Clowney - 131.6
Adalius Thomas - 130.1
Kevin Burnett - 127.6
Spencer, Anthony - 127.0
Jason Hatcher - 125.5
Shaun Phillips - 125.1
Demarcus Lawrence - 123.0

Like I said, he is a physical freak that looks like a Ware clone. That statement is based both on his EXTREMELY rare athleticism plus looking at him in games (i.e., he looks eerily similar to Ware on the field).

I'll try and look at that formula more but can't now. I looked at more film. Briefly, he doesn't possess that rare first step and he doesn't have the bend to get around good LTs. He does have decent moves which are going to get better with NFL coaching. He has better hands than normal. He's fairly disciplined in his play, uses his hips fairly well, and knows the proper techniques to play off lineman.

He's a low first rounder who may fall due to hip concerns and the lack of burst off the line and his bend.

 

[theogt]

I'll try and look at that formula more but can't now. I looked at more film. Briefly, he doesn't possess that rare first step and he doesn't have the bend to get around good LTs. He does have decent moves which are going to get better with NFL coaching. He has better hands than normal. He's fairly disciplined in his play, uses his hips fairly well, and knows the proper techniques to play off lineman.

He's a low first rounder who may fall due to hip concerns and the lack of burst off the line and his bend.

His first step is crazy good -- as good or better than Ware's, actually. I'm not sure what you're watching. Seriously, his burst on film is elite, and it's born out in the athleticism numbers which are off the charts.

 

[DFWJC]

Many of these mocks were done before the Hardy signing was finalized and I have to wonder if they will change going forward. Not simply based on drafting a DE, but possibly in not reaching for one, as it looks to me like some might be.

Given the Hardy deal, I think the team is in great position to go best player available and go in any direction presenting the best value.

Yep.
Once again,really lazy reporting by Helman.
I mean, of course the addition of Hardy "clearly" hadn't swayed opinions....Hardy was not even signed until after these most of mocks.
It gets to be embarrassing at times, just how these writers miss really basic stuff.

Having said all that, I don't think we'd shy away from a DE if he was BPA at 27.

 

[DFWJC]

Keeping my fingers crossed that OO drops enough for us to reach him. If he dropped to our pick, I'd be ecstatic.

The guy does have potential.
But OO "dropping to our pick" would not be at all surprising.

Many would say he's more of a mid to late 2nd round guy anyway.
Kiper, for example, has him as his 7th best DE.
So, many think it's a reach to use 27 on him.

McShay, Kiper, Jeremiah, Casserly, Baldinger, Brooks, etc....none of those have him in the first.

That doesn't mean he doesn't deserve to be there. They've missed before. Just sayin..

 

[jobberone]

His first step is crazy good -- as good or better than Ware's, actually. I'm not sure what you're watching. Seriously, his burst on film is elite, and it's born out in the athleticism numbers which are off the charts.

No one else is making that claim. His first step is good but not elite by far. JMO along with every analyst I've heard or read. His bend puts him in the Spencer realm. He should get better with coaching.

With a good pass rush outside of him, he can be a 5-10 sack a year guy. He's currently not going to generate an awesome pass rush against good LTs.

He can work on flexibility to create more bend and he can work on that first step. He has the tools otherwise to be a worthwhile pick at 27 as an edge rusher.

 

[theogt]

No one else is making that claim. His first step is good but not elite by far. JMO along with every analyst I've heard or read. His bend puts him in the Spencer realm. He should get better with coaching.

With a good pass rush outside of him, he can be a 5-10 sack a year guy. He's currently not going to generate an awesome pass rush against good LTs.

He can work on flexibility to create more bend and he can work on that first step. He has the tools otherwise to be a worthwhile pick at 27 as an edge rusher.

I don't really read draft analysis. The more you pay attention over the years, the more you realize 90+% of them are just aping one another, simply have no idea what they're doing or use the same vague descriptions year after year so they aren't actually providing any real analysis.

But most importantly, if all you do is read someone else's analysis, then watch a few minutes of games, confirmation bias sets in and you can't really form your own opinion.

 

[jobberone]

I don't really read draft analysis. The more you pay attention over the years, the more you realize 90+% of them are just aping one another, simply have no idea what they're doing or use the same vague descriptions year after year so they aren't actually providing any real analysis.

But most importantly, if all you do is read someone else's analysis, then watch a few minutes of games, confirmation bias sets in and you can't really form your own opinion.

I just told you I watched more tape and this wasn't the first time. I do agree you should watch yourself unless you know you can trust the analyst. Generally I watch myself as I don't trust many.

 

[Stash]

Yep.
Once again,really lazy reporting by Helman.
I mean, of course the addition of Hardy "clearly" hadn't swayed opinions....Hardy was not even signed until after these most of mocks.
It gets to be embarrassing at times, just how these writers miss really basic stuff.

Having said all that, I don't think we'd shy away from a DE if he was BPA at 27.

List most mocks, it's your basic connect-the-dots type stuff. Despite, the Hardy signing, we can certainly use another DE. At this point, Lawrence is the only one under contract for 2016. And a player like Odighizuwa would look great next to him long term.

 

[Stash]

The guy does have potential.
But OO "dropping to our pick" would not be at all surprising.

Many would say he's more of a mid to late 2nd round guy anyway.
Kiper, for example, has him as his 7th best DE.
So, many think it's a reach to use 27 on him.

McShay, Kiper, Jeremiah, Casserly, Baldinger, Brooks, etc....none of those have him in the first.

That doesn't mean he doesn't deserve to be there. They've missed before. Just sayin..

I hope he's there. And if Gurley is gone, he would be my pick I think.

 

[jobberone]

If Spencer signs the likelihood of drafting him goes down significantly IMO. If not then it goes up significantly. As always it depends on who is available when and where we draft and if we have targets.

 

[theogt]

I just told you I watched more tape and this wasn't the first time. I do agree you should watch yourself unless you know you can trust the analyst. Generally I watch myself as I don't trust many.

Notice how he's consistently a yard or two further into the backfield than any other defender.