DE/EDGE "Splash" Play Leaders

[BAT]

There’s always a balance in this.

Bradley Anae isn’t good enough to get on the field despite his robust college production.

No one wanted Jayson Oweh and many called him a workout warrior because he had 0 sacks his last year at Penn St. He got 5 sacks and 27 pressures as a rookie rotational player last year.

It’s difficult to balance size, athletic traits, production, and mental makeup when evaluating these guys. And that doesn’t even factor in what scheme they were playing in college which often times has a huge affect.

True.

But Anae did not have freakish measurables evidenced by Oweh, Sam Williams or Amare Barno.

So comparatively, players like Anae lack that upside that players like Oweh, SW and Barno have.

 

[BAT]

I'd love a great OG in the 1st and Williams in the 2nd, i dont think he'll be there in round 3. I've given up on hoping for a great 1T early and I sure hope they don't go WR in rounds 1 or 2!

Trade down from 24 and pick up another 2nd.

Use that 2nd second rounder to draft SW.

 

[tm1119]

For sure, there are always outliers.

The metric favors those that actually produced in college. In fairness, I would lean towards demonstrated production vs. traits w/out production when it comes to projecting future NFL success.

While I don’t disagree with you in principle, I think the word outlier is a bit off. Bosa and Chris Jones are other obvious names off the top of my head that didn’t produce big in college.
I don’t have any data or #’s to back it up, so it’s more of a guy feeling…but I think little/bad college production players succeed in the nfl more than you’d think

 

[CalPolyTechnique]

While I don’t disagree with you in principle, I think the word outlier is a bit off. Bosa and Chris Jones are other obvious names off the top of my head that didn’t produce big in college.
I don’t have any data or #’s to back it up, so it’s more of a guy feeling…but I think little/bad college production players succeed in the nfl more than you’d think

Joey Bosa was one of the most productive college DEs of memory.

He averaged 2.34 “splash” plays a game.

Nick Bosa averaged 1.74.

Chris Jones played primarily inside at DT lined up against the OGs, so it’s a bit apples-to-oranges.

 

[dogberry]

Pick 24 to pick 40 gets pick 72 (3rd round).

 

[tm1119]

Joey Bosa was one of the most productive college DEs of memory.

He averaged 2.34 “splash” plays a game.

Nick Bosa averaged 1.74.

Chris Jones played primarily inside at DT lined up against the OGs, so it’s a bit apples-to-oranges.

While I agree with you that TFL are important, there was definitely around Bosa being with the pick because he “only” had 5 sacks. I didn’t remember he had that many TFL tho honestly.

And Jones is a dynamic interior pass rusher now. His college production didn’t match that at all.

Not the same position, but another example would be people questioning Ramsey because he didn’t get many INT’s in college.

 

[cnuball21]

While I agree with you that TFL are important, there was definitely around Bosa being with the pick because he “only” had 5 sacks. I didn’t remember he had that many TFL tho honestly.

And Jones is a dynamic interior pass rusher now. His college production didn’t match that at all.

Not the same position, but another example would be people questioning Ramsey because he didn’t get many INT’s in college.

Questioning Bosa or Ramsey around sack production or Int production only was insane back then and it’s insane to do the same now for current prospects. There’s so much more data that’s so easily accessible out there now that can be paired with quality tape.

That’s exactly why neither prospect slipped at all. It was just something for the media to talk about.

 

[Cebrin]

Amare Barno in the 5th is also good value.

That kid is a freak, but he needs a lot of coaching. He has no idea what he's doing.

 

[cnuball21]

Per Ian Rap.

“San Diego State D-lineman Cam Thomas held his Pro Day today after dealing with a hamstring since the Senior Bowl. While still managing the ailment, 22 teams watched the 265-pounder do a 33.5 inch vertical & 6.87 3-cone drill. Thomas is a Friday pick who could sneak into Thursday.”

That vert puts him in the ballpark of Johnson, Williamson and Bonito. That 3 cone time is ELITE for his size even if you add .10. Bummed not to see a 40 but 10 yard split and 3 cone are more to me so we got half.

 

[tm1119]

Per Ian Rap.

“San Diego State D-lineman Cam Thomas held his Pro Day today after dealing with a hamstring since the Senior Bowl. While still managing the ailment, 22 teams watched the 265-pounder do a 33.5 inch vertical & 6.87 3-cone drill. Thomas is a Friday pick who could sneak into Thursday.”

That vert puts him in the ballpark of Johnson, Williamson and Bonito. That 3 cone time is ELITE for his size even if you add .10. Bummed not to see a 40 but 10 yard split and 3 cone are more to me so we got half.

Im a big fan. Obviously didn’t watch all of his games, but from the 3/4 game sample size I think Thomas may have lined up as a 3-4 NT just as often as he rushed from the OT’s outside shoulder as an edge. Most of the time he was a 5 tech who had to maintain gap integrity as his 1st job and pass rusher 2nd. Given his build and athletic profile + what he showed when given a chance to pass rush I think there’s some untapped potential and high value for a prospect not likely to go in the top 50. He’s already very solid vs the run.

Might be controversial, but I don’t think the gap between Thomas and Karlaftis is that big

 

[cnuball21]

Im a big fan. Obviously didn’t watch all of his games, but from the 3/4 game sample size I think Thomas may have lined up as a 3-4 NT just as often as he rushed from the OT’s outside shoulder as an edge. Most of the time he was a 5 tech who had to maintain gap integrity as his 1st job and pass rusher 2nd. Given his build and athletic profile + what he showed when given a chance to pass rush I think there’s some untapped potential and high value for a prospect not likely to go in the top 50. He’s already very solid vs the run.

Might be controversial, but I don’t think the gap between Thomas and Karlaftis is that big

I like him…I just don’t know how high to put him.

For small school guys I have to know what kind of athlete he is…love the 3 cone just really wish we had a 40 time.

 

[CalPolyTechnique]

While I agree with you that TFL are important, there was definitely around Bosa being with the pick because he “only” had 5 sacks. I didn’t remember he had that many TFL tho honestly.

And Jones is a dynamic interior pass rusher now. His college production didn’t match that at all.

Not the same position, but another example would be people questioning Ramsey because he didn’t get many INT’s in college.

Bosa notched 26 sacks in 38 games.

He was also getting triple-teamed by year 3 in college. I guess I don’t understand your point? Sacks are not the end-all-be-all; there are other ways to impact the game, which is precisely why the “splash” play looks at the aggregated numbers of different stats categories to determine overall impact.

Jones was playing DT at Miss. State so it’s a misnomer to bring him up in this discussion.

 

[Brooksey]

Per Ian Rap.

“San Diego State D-lineman Cam Thomas held his Pro Day today after dealing with a hamstring since the Senior Bowl. While still managing the ailment, 22 teams watched the 265-pounder do a 33.5 inch vertical & 6.87 3-cone drill. Thomas is a Friday pick who could sneak into Thursday.”

That vert puts him in the ballpark of Johnson, Williamson and Bonito. That 3 cone time is ELITE for his size even if you add .10. Bummed not to see a 40 but 10 yard split and 3 cone are more to me so we got half.

I really like the player, did we show up for his pro day?

 

[beware_d-ware]

Bosa notched 26 sacks in 38 games.

He was also getting triple-teamed by year 3 in college. I guess I don’t understand your point? Sacks are not the end-all-be-all; there are other ways to impact the game, which is precisely why the “splash” play looks at the aggregated numbers of different stats categories to determine overall impact.

Jones was playing DT at Miss. State so it’s a misnomer to bring him up in this discussion.

Yep. Bosa had 5 sacks in his last year of college... he's had more than that in all 6 seasons as an NFL pro. College sack numbers just aren't very predictive.

 

[CowboyMort]

Similar to what Bob Sturm puts out, I put together a list of the "splash" play leaders of this year's DE/Edge class. "Splash" plays are sacks, TFL, forced fumbles, pass defensed, and interceptions. I then looked at the aggregate numbers to get the average number of "splash" plays each player made each game.

I think this is a useful metric in understanding which players are actually game wreckers.

Interesting. Thanks for putting this together.

 

[CalPolyTechnique]

Can you include Eyioma Uwaruzike as well?

Uwaruzike played in a ridiculous 55 career games. That’s roughly 2x the amount of games a typical college player plays in.

55 games
34.5 TFL
15.0 sacks
3 PDs
0 FF

0.95 “splash” plays per game