December Momentum is Paramount

[TheSkaven]

I am probably beating a dead horse here, but I think this discussion is worth its own thread.

One thing that was proved this season is how you do in December is a very good indicator of how you will perform in January. Teams that have long winning streaks in September, October and November but falter in December have a historically very poor record in January over the past decade.

Here are a few facts that you can chew on:

- The 2005 Indianapolis Colts started 13-0, stumbled to lose 2 of their next 3 and were bounced by the Steelers after their bye week.

- The Dallas Cowboys were the first #1 or #2 seeded team to finish December without a winning record since the 2004 Atlanta Falcons

- Also worth noting that the Cowboys and Colts rested their starters at halftime in week 17 while the Patriots and Giants played their starters the full game

I'm over the loss now and looking forward to next season. But guys, the bar has been raised again, and nothing less than 3-1 in December is good enough next year.

 

[Boysboy]

I am probably beating a dead horse here, but I think this discussion is worth its own thread.

One thing that was proved this season is how you do in December is a very good indicator of how you will perform in January. Teams that have long winning streaks in September, October and November but falter in December have a historically very poor record in January over the past decade.

Here are a few facts that you can chew on:

- The 2005 Indianapolis Colts started 13-0, stumbled to lose 2 of their next 3 and were bounced by the Steelers after their bye week.

- The Dallas Cowboys were the first #1 or #2 seeded team to finish December without a winning record since the 2004 Atlanta Falcons

- Also worth noting that the Cowboys and Colts rested their starters at halftime in week 17 while the Patriots and Giants played their starters the full game

I'm over the loss now and looking forward to next season. But guys, the bar has been raised again, and nothing less than 3-1 in December is good enough next year.

Yeah-and the Colts finished '07 on a GANGBUSTERS roll, but they still went 1 and done in the playoffs. So your point being?

There were many other reasons why we went 1 and done-championship teams don't lose their focus and discipline like this. Forget Dec, you just don't play like this in the postseason.

 

[superpunk]

This is a huge oversimplification.

Look at last year's Bears, who stumbled in but ran to the super bowl. I think the Seahawks did a few years ago, too. Last year's Colts finished poorly, IIRC.

Team needs to be able to sack up when it's time to sack up.

 

[Chocolate Lab]

I think some of this "momentum" stuff is due to luck, to be honest.

The truth is that every team prepares as hard as it can to win every game it plays. Every coach preaches "one game at a time" for good reason -- because that's the only game you can do anything about.

If a team gets off to a great start, yes, it's hard for anyone short of the Patriots this year to sustain it. But what do you do? Lose games early in the year to "save up" for the stretch drive? Obviously, you can't do that. If you get some injuries late in the year at the wrong time like we did and it messes with your confidence, you're in trouble. But is that anyone's fault, coaches or players? I can't see how it is.

Obviously, the Giants did it perfectly. But you can't exactly plan it out so that earlier in the year you lay huge eggs so that everyone is calling for your QB and coach to be fired, then turn it on in December. It's not always coaching or players. In a league that is so close in talent, some of it is pure good fortune.

 

[coogrfan]

The 2006 Chargers entered the postseason riding a ten game winning streak, while the Colts were 2-2 in Dec., 4-4 in the second half of the season. Wanna take a guess as to which team was one and done in the playoffs?

 

[sago1]

The Cowboys December collapse has been a reality for the last 5-7 years or more. Actually we did better this year going 2-2 then 06 or before. If somebody could just figure out how we end up with a total team meltdown, maybe we can fix it. It's certainly got something to do with a lack of focus & discipline by the players as well as a lack of direction from the coaching staff and maybe the owner/GM.

 

[Bach]

It might be a good idea not to try and coast into the playoffs acting like all is well when it obviously isn't.

 

[ryanbabs]

The Cowboys December collapse has been a reality for the last 5-7 years or more. Actually we did better this year going 2-2 then 06 or before. If somebody could just figure out how we end up with a total team meltdown, maybe we can fix it. It's certainly got something to do with a lack of focus & discipline by the players as well as a lack of direction from the coaching staff and maybe the owner/GM.

I, for one, think this "December Collapse" ordeal is way overblown. The team had everything basically wrapped up. The Eagles game was by far Romo's worst I have seen...it happens. The Carolina game was a blowout waiting to happen had it not been for T.O.'s injury that threw things off.

The only meltdown the Cowboys have in December were from the media constantly reminding them that they were going to "have a meltdown". Did they lose focus a bit, yes. But I don't consider it a "meltdown"...

 

[theogt]

Momentum did wonders for the Commanders playing the Seahaks in the first round, who had lost 2 of their last 3 games.

Hooray momentum!

 

[peplaw06]

Funny, I thought December Momentum was the most overrated fake stat in the game. The Giants weren't exactly hot in December. Hell the experts think that their momentum came from a LOSS to the Pats in the last game of the year.

 

[ScipioCowboy]

This December momentum stuff is nonsense. The Giants and Cowboys had identical records through December (2-2) and the last 3 games of the season (1-2).

 

[chinch]

cowboys and colts also had their #1 WR (best in each league) at 60% or so.

cowboys and colts also have coach cupcakes.

the similarity is poor coaching not december record. if we had a legitimate playoff coach with urgency we could have lost our last two and came out like gangbusters in the playoffs. But instead we built our offensive foundation on penalty-machines on OL and two gimpy old WRs (one with 10 minutes in-game experience the ENTIRE YEAR. just frikin stupid).

and a QB who was worn down from his first full season, and injured.

I am probably beating a dead horse here, but I think this discussion is worth its own thread.

One thing that was proved this season is how you do in December is a very good indicator of how you will perform in January. Teams that have long winning streaks in September, October and November but falter in December have a historically very poor record in January over the past decade.

Here are a few facts that you can chew on:

- The 2005 Indianapolis Colts started 13-0, stumbled to lose 2 of their next 3 and were bounced by the Steelers after their bye week.

- The Dallas Cowboys were the first #1 or #2 seeded team to finish December without a winning record since the 2004 Atlanta Falcons

- Also worth noting that the Cowboys and Colts rested their starters at halftime in week 17 while the Patriots and Giants played their starters the full game

I'm over the loss now and looking forward to next season. But guys, the bar has been raised again, and nothing less than 3-1 in December is good enough next year.

 

[Dwight]

It's about which team peaks at the right time and how a coach keeps his players focus.

 

[TheSkaven]

I think some of this "momentum" stuff is due to luck, to be honest.

You, along with a few others, make a good counterpoint. Perhaps it isn't so much about momentum, stringing wins together in December, as it is just playing well at the end of the year. A team like the Giants can go 3-2 in their final five games but play well in the playoffs because they played their best football in December (except January, of course).

The Cowboys were 2-2 in December, but we could all see that the game they brought in December was not comparable to the game they brought in September and October. They weren't putting up the same number of points (especially in the second half of games), the defense wasn't playing as well, etc.

So let me restate the original argument again - teams that are playing their best football in December, regardless of record, have the most success in January.

 

[Chocolate Lab]

Funny, I thought December Momentum was the most overrated fake stat in the game.

So do I, but then why the billion posts from certain people about our annual December swoon?

 

[superpunk]

So do I, but then why the billion posts from certain people about our annual December swoon?

Do you really wonder this?

How does "Haven't won a playoff game since I was freaking 11 years old" do for an explanation?

 

[Bach]

The Giants lost to NE the last week, but they also played that game like it was the Super Bowl and gave the Pats one of their closest games of the year.

If that had been us, we would've sat a half dozen starters and lackadasically gone through the motions while sitting most of the rest of the starters after the half.

No doubt that final game and the way the Giants approached it is what restarted their motor and propelled them for their run.

There's always going to be exceptions, but more often than not, it's best to go into the postseason with momentum and a sense of urgency and hunger.

 

[peplaw06]

So do I, but then why the billion posts from certain people about our annual December swoon?

They can't explain it rationally, so it can only be explained as voodoo.

Someone has wished ill on us in December, therefore doom and despair follow.

 

[Yakuza Rich]

I honestly don't believe it makes much of a difference. You could be playing very good teams or bad teams and that can mean either December momentum or December "regression". Not to mention injuries. All in all if I have a chance to have all of my starters healthy coming into the playoffs, I'm going to try and make it happen.




YAKUZA

 

[ScipioCowboy]

Much is made of New York's close loss to New England, but we should remember that NFL players are professionals; they have little need for moral victories, especially ones that entail squandering an 11 point lead in the fourth quarter.

Furthermore, last season, the Chargers rode an 11 game winning streak into the playoffs and were ousted in their first playoff game (much like our Cowboys). The Ravens went 4-0 in December and lost their first playoff game. Meanwhile, the Colts went 2-3 over the last month of the season, and won the Super Bowl.

December holds no mythical powers, people. The 2007 Dallas Cowboys lost not because they performed poorly over the season's final month. They lost because they turned in a gutless and heartless performance against the Giants.