Defense Wins Championships (stats)

[JBS]

Taken from another board: Thanks to andarcman99 for the work


We've all heard the saying “Defense wins Championships”, but how does that apply to the NFL and just what are the numbers? Well, let's check it out.


Did you know that since the merger in 1970 there have been 39 Super Bowls played and in those games only 4 times (10%) has the winner not finished the regular season with a total defense ranked in the Top 11? So that's obviously 90% of the time (35 teams out of 39) that the team hoisting the Lombardi trophy at the end of the year has had a defense in the top 11.


Here is how the playoff teams finished this season in terms of total defense (which if you didn't know is measured in yards allowed per game):


1. NY Jets
2. Green Bay
3. Baltimore
4. Cincinnati
6. Minnesota
9. Dallas
11. New England


12. Philadelphia
16. San Diego
18. Indianapolis
20. Arizona
25. New Orleans


The above was “total defense” now let's look at “scoring defense”, which is points allowed per game.


These stats were still pretty solid before 1984 but since the 1984 season they have really taken off. I listed each year, followed by the rank of the Super Bowl winner in scoring defense, and the actual number of points per game they allowed in brackets:

 

[JBS]

Year SB winner PPG rank (Actual PPG allowed)


2008 1 (13.9)

2007 17 (21.9)

2006 23 (22.5)

2005 3 (16.1)

2004 2 (16.3)

2003 1 (14.9)

2002 1 (12.3)

2001 6 (17.0)

2000 1 (10.3)

1999 4 (15.1)

1998 8 (19.3)

1997 6 (17.9)

1996 1 (13.1)

1995 3 (18.2)

1994 6 (18.5)

1993 2 (14.3)

1992 5 (15.2)

1991 2 (14.0)

1990 1 (13.2)

1989 3 (15.8)

1988 8 (18.4)

1987 6 (19.0)

1986 2 (14.8)

1985 1 (12.4)

1984 1 (14.2)

 

[JBS]

Clearly there are some very interesting numbers there. In the 22 years from 1984 to 2005 every single Super Bowl winner had a scoring defense ranked 8th or better (20 of 22 had 6th or better) and all 22 Super Bowl winners during that timespan gave up less than 20 points per game.


Now in 2006 and 2007 things got interesting. Clearly the two winners those years said “screw all those defensive stats, we're gonna be exceptions!”. Why did those two weak regular season defenses win the Super Bowl? Well for one thing, both of them were wild card teams (06 Colts, 07 Giants) that had to play every playoff game and started out on the road. And obviously their defenses got hot. Despite ****ty regular season numbers both defenses buckled down in the playoffs each improving big time as both of them allowed 16.2 PPG in their post season runs, which ranked 1st and 2nd in each postseason.


With two of the last three Super Bowl winners doing it with crappy regular season defenses, the question has to be asked, are these historical stats becoming meaningless? I don't know, but it is interesting to note both those teams were wildcard teams that had to play all but 1 game on the road. Then how do I explain the Steelers winning last season with the number 1 scoring defense? Not sure.

A few other interesting number I found when looking at scoring defense:

In the 25 years since 1984, 24 of those 25 years had at least 1 team that finished in the Top 3 in scoring defense in the conference finals. In the only year without 1 team in the Top 3, the 4th ranked team got in.


In the 25 years since 1984, 15 times in 25 years there was at least two teams that finished in the Top 3 in scoring defense in the conference finals.


In the 25 years since 1984, 16 times in 25 years there was at least three teams that finished in the Top 7 in scoring defense in the conference finals.


In case you're wondering here is how this years playoff teams finished the regular season in scoring defense:


1. NY Jets 14.8 PPG
2. Dallas 15.6
3 .Baltimore 16.3
5. New England 17.8
6. Cincinnati 18.2
7. Green Bay 18.6
8 .Indianapolis 19.2


10. Minnesota 19.5
11. San Diego 20.0
14. Arizona 20.3
19. Philadelphia 21.1
20. New Orleans 21.3


What am I actually trying to prove here? Who knows, but these stats are very interesting and IMO in the NFL I think the old saying “defense wins championships” is an understatement. Am I suggesting bet on the good defenses and fade the ****ty ones? NO! I am just simply providing some interesting stats I guess we'll see if the long term numbers hold this year or we see another crappy regular season defense go on a huge run and claim the Lombardi trophy.

 

[casmith07]

Basically, if we can keep the other team from scoring, we have a great shot

 

[JBS]

What I took away from this information is the following

The NFC will come down to

Minn
Dal
GB

meaning Dallas has an OUTSTADING chance to represent the NFC

As I have been saying ALL week, the NFC representative will be from the Winner of the Dallas vs Minnesota game next week.

 

[skinsscalper]

What I took away from this information is the following

The NFC will come down to

Minn
Dal
GB

meaning Dallas has an OUTSTADING chance to represent the NFC

As I have been saying ALL week, the NFC representative will be from the Winner of the Dallas vs Minnesota game next week.

Settle down there, brother. There's still a matter of business to handle this weekend.

 

[JBS]

Settle down there, brother. There's still a matter of business to handle this weekend.

that is true..but I can look ahead...I am not deciding this weeks game..

 

[skinsscalper]

that is true..but I can look ahead...I am not deciding this weeks game..

Touche.:

Carry on.

 

[JBS]

22 out of the 24 SB champs from 84 to 05 had a top 6 scoring defense..

1. NY Jets 14.8 PPG
2. Dallas 15.6
3 .Baltimore 16.3
5. New England 17.8
6. Cincinnati 18.2
7. Green Bay 18.6

I mean seriously..who out of these clowns, NOT named Dallas can REALLY win the SB..GB? maybe..that is about it

CHALK IT UP BABY

6 is in the BOOKS!!! LETS GO!!!!!!

 

[LittleBoyBlue]

Offense Wins Championships too.

• Eli throws a couple of passes at the end of the game = wins SB
• Ben R throws a couple of passes at the end of the game = wins SB
• Tom Brady constructs 3 drives in 3 SB's to line up for offensive score = wins 3 SB's
• Cowboys win 2 SB's in 90's with alot of offense
• Cowboys win another SB in 90's with offense generated by Neil O'Donnell
• Steve Young throws 6? TD's = Wins SB
• John Elway and Terrell Davis lead the offense = win 2 SB's

I guess in order to have a Defense win a championship you need an offense too?

 

[ThreeSportStar80]

Big time QB play wins championships too....