This is what I posted earlier tonight on a Detroit forum, I hope I'm underestimating our team... Please tell me I'm wrong!
Here's some random thoughts about the game...
Number one, Dallas' OL is not what people make them out to be... They're good, but I can think of more than a couple of teams (including Green Bay) that have a better OL... Romo has actually been sacked more than Rodgers has, and Dallas only averaged 0.1 ypc more than Green Bay when running the ball... I know Rodgers avoids some sacks because of his elusiveness, but Romo is also pretty good at that, just ask JJ Watt... Rodgers has been sacked less, despite having a 100 more attempts than Romo... I'm just saying, Dallas' OL is definitely not worthy of all the hype they've been given by the media... Their OL was considered average at best last season, and the only real change has been rookie Zack Martin... So if the addition of Martin really takes the Dallas OL from average, to hands-down the best OL in the NFL (so they say), then doesn't that make Zack Martin the hands-down choice for Rookie of the Year? I don't think he's the rookie of the year, because I don't think Dallas' OL is the best in the NFL... I'd rank the Saints, NYG, Green Bay, Chargers, and Steelers as having at least slightly better O-Lines...
Time of Possession........................ Dallas and Detroit are virtually tied in this stat, and this is the main reason why Dallas runs as much as they do, and why they always use the entire play-clock... Dallas' main motivation is to protect their defense by winning time of possession... It pretty much doesn't matter if Murray only overages 2.0 yards per carry, he will still get 25-30 carries per game, and as a team Dallas will run it 35-40 times per game... Dallas' offense is still most reliant on Tony Romo completing a high percentage of 3rd downs, many of which are 3rd and long, and Romo has performed well thus far... Detroit meanwhile seems to have a very similar strategy, except their OL and RB are not as good as Dallas'... Still though, hard to argue with the Lions' coaching strategy when it results in 11-5, despite having the lowest rushing ypc in the league...
Defense......... Yikes?....... This is the first time since the Seattle game that Dallas has faced a defense this stout! Dallas put up 30 on Seattle, but they had to play their best and most complete game of the entire season to do it... On the flip-side, it's not every week that Detroit faces a defense this mediocre... I gotta think that Detroit scores at least 28 points... Dallas' point totals against top -10 defenses this season 17, 20, 30, 17... They went 2-2 in those games, and Houston would've beat Dallas with any legit QB play...
I felt good about this game for a few hours, until I really thought about it... Dallas has really only looked scary when beating up on some of the worst defenses in the league... And they looked awesome against Seattle, but as I said, that was Dallas' A++ game on both sides of the ball... It will take a similar near perfect performance for Dallas to beat Detroit on Sunday, and I just think that might be expecting too much... This is just a bad match-up for Dallas... Unfortunately, I think the Lions should win by 7 or more...