Dez Tweet on the Offense

khiladi

khiladi

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Dez makes a remark about “predictability” as regards to the offense throwing from under shotgun, but not running. While the case of predictability is obvious, Dez puts it on the coaching and says “Shanahan is the truth”.

The problem with the argument, as @Hadenough and myself pointed out. Dak can’t throw consistently from underneath center. He had problem seeing the field, so he has to throw from shotgun all the time. So Dez is right to a large degree in his observation, but he’s wrong as for the reason for why the numbers actually support this lack of predictability.

As I’ve done many times before, the work by C. Joseph Wright from the end of the 2019 season details this problem.

https://cowboyswire.usatoday.com/20...lling-snap-analysis-2019-season-dak-prescott/

Moore called running plays on 70% of the snaps when the quarterback took the snap from under center (280 runs on 400 plays).

The one area in which Moore can’t seem to escape the predictability of Linehan is how the Cowboys try to move the ball through the air. More than 82% of Prescott’s pass attempts come from the shotgun (557 of 677 pass attempts were from the shotgun). Similarly, when the Cowboys start in the shotgun, Moore sends in a passing play 78.6% of the time (557 pass attempts on 708 shotgun snaps).

One of the things that stands out the most is that Prescott only threw the ball 30 times after dropping back from under center (he also attempted 90 play-action passes from that formation). A fair number of those 30 passes did not even require an actual drop back from center: some of them were quick screens thrown immediately after the snap.

A mere 17.7% of the passing plays called by Moore came when Prescott started under center (120 of 677), with 90 of those pass attempts coming off play-action.

Prescott attempted to execute a three-step, five-step, or seven-step drop on average of less than twice a game in 2019. That basic ratio has been true for every year that Prescott has been in the NFL.

I took a lot of criticism earlier in the year when I suggested Prescott’s inability to take a snap from under center and then drop back and deliver a well-timed and properly-placed pass was a limitation, but it is hard to avoid the fact he only attempted 30 passes all year when dropping back from under center.
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The main point is it is the limitations of Dak throwing a traditional 3-5 step drop back, let alone 7, that makes the play-calling limited in whether they call run or pass.
 
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John813

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For reference, this is 2016. Under Linehan with Dak as the starter.

Packages with the S, denote Shotgun( credit to Sturm under older employer)
IS4-GVCEYPTNKTNGAJMSKWB5-VTQ.jpg
 

Sydla

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1) He's right about Shanahan. He's arguably a Top 3 OC in the NFL. He's a few tiers higher than our OC.

2) There is no doubt there are limitations with Dak and that can lead to some predictability. But don't then trick yourself into thinking that if McCarthy has a QB without as many limitations, he'd be dazzling like Shanahan can be at times. He's not that guy.

There is zero doubt in my mind that if Dak had Shanahan, he'd be playing better. Not elite or upper level but just better. The offense would look better as well. Flip it around, there is zero chance McCarthy would be getting as much out of Purdy as Shanahan is.

Don't fall into the trap of either/or discussions with the offense. It's a multi-pronged problem.
 
khiladi

khiladi

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erod said:
Most quarterbacks in college go pro without ever taking a snap under center their whole life.

One of many reasons the QB position in the NFL has never been worse. Football is so ugly these days.
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Guys like Goff though do it and Mahomes as well. Goff in fact during this time under McVay was top of the league in 7 step. Dak on the other hand has been bottom of the league in usage, among all the QBs whether 3, 5 or 7.
 
khiladi

khiladi

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Sydla said:
1) He's right about Shanahan. He's arguably a Top 3 OC in the NFL. He's a few tiers higher than our OC.

2) There is no doubt there are limitations with Dak and that can lead to some predictability. But don't then trick yourself into thinking that if McCarthy has a QB without as many limitations, he'd be dazzling like Shanahan can be at times. He's not that guy.

There is zero doubt in my mind that if Dak had Shanahan, he'd be playing better. Not elite or upper level but just better. The offense would look better as well. Flip it around, there is zero chance McCarthy would be getting as much out of Purdy as Shanahan is.

Don't fall into the trap of either/or discussions with the offense. It's a multi-pronged problem.
Click to expand...
This is an article that references Moore and Dak, as well as Linehan. And it’s an obvious observation now with McCarthy with this “new offense”.
 
fivetwos

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I can’t see it, but it crossed my mind that they are developing patterns and/or tells, because it seemed as if SF knew exactly what was coming.

Yeah they are faster but they seemed a tick ahead otherwise.

Better staffs find this stuff and scheme accordingly. Others cannot.

Coaching absolutely matters and we are always neutral or at a disadvantage…and always will be as long as Jerry wants to be the star of the show.
 

Sydla

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MountaineerCowboy said:
I hate scoring points too.
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That is until we faced a real defense with a quality DC.

Moore wasn't the answer either but in all fairness, his offenses did look more competent with Dak than what we see with McCarthy.

Lost in many of these discussions is the fact that after Jimmy, Jerry's track record of finding and hiring coaches is pathetic. Whether that be HCs or assistants he foisted on his HC. So while some look at our run under Dak and think it's impossible that it can't all be Dak's fault the reality is that Jerry's track record of hirings should tell you the coaches haven't been all that good either.
 
Flamma

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khiladi said:


Dez makes a remark about “predictability” as regards to the offense throwing from under shotgun, but not running. While the case of predictability is obvious, Dez puts it on the coaching and says “Shanahan is the truth”.

The problem with the argument, as @Hadenough and myself pointed out. Dak can’t throw consistently from underneath center. He had problem seeing the field, so he has to throw from shotgun all the time. So Dez is right to a large degree in his observation, but he’s wrong as for the reason for why the numbers actually support this lack of predictability.

As I’ve done many times before, the work by C. Joseph Wright from the end of the 2019 season details this problem.

https://cowboyswire.usatoday.com/20...lling-snap-analysis-2019-season-dak-prescott/



The main point is it is the limitations of Dak throwing a traditional 3-5 step drop back, let alone 7, that makes the play-calling limited in whether they call run or pass.
Click to expand...

Dez doesn't care about what the numbers say. He's just stating the obvious. What Dez said has been my complaint over the last how many years. Besides the obvious talent on the Eagles, you really don't know what they're doing. That's an immediate advantage.

If a defense knows when you're passing and running, it makes it that much harder to do both. Back in the 90s when every play was run from under center, the only tell was down and distance.

Dez isn't trying to be some genius here, he's just pointing out the obvious. If you're going to run from under center, you need passes from under center. Same goes for passes from shotgun. You need runs from shotgun.
 

Sydla

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fivetwos said:
I can’t see it, but it crossed my mind that they are developing patterns and/or tells, because it seemed as if SF knew exactly what was coming.

Yeah they are faster but they seemed a tick ahead otherwise.

Better staffs find this stuff and scheme accordingly. Others cannot.

Coaching absolutely matters and we are always neutral or at a disadvantage…and always will be as long as Jerry wants to be the star of the show.
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As noted multiple places, San Fran played more man than they typically do and we had no answer. First and foremost, that falls on the coaches to adapt in real time. They did not. Dak also needs to take advantage of the times they had man beat. There were a few instances and he just failed.

As I said, the offense is a multi-pronged problem. And I can't see how it gets fixed the rest of this season. If this team wants to win games, they are going to have to limit turnovers on offense, hope the D plays stout and win games 24-20, 20-17...............
 
khiladi

khiladi

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Sydla said:
As noted multiple places, San Fran played more man than they typically do and we had no answer. First and foremost, that falls on the coaches to adapt in real time. They did not. Dak also needs to take advantage of the times they had man beat. There were a few instances and he just failed.

As I said, the offense is a multi-pronged problem. And I can't see how it gets fixed the rest of this season. If this team wants to win games, they are going to have to limit turnovers on offense, hope the D plays stout and win games 24-20, 20-17...............
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I don’t buy this “man take”. All it means is their new DC, Hicks plays man more than they traditionally do. And CC pointed this out on air right before Turpin burned their corner in man coverage. It was a way too aggressive call and pointless and they went back up zone right after that.

As CeeDee pointed out they played deep cover 2 shell excellent. SF is a cover 3 team and plays traditionally heavy zone.
https://www.pff.com/news/fantasy-fo...zone-coverage-performance-ahead-of-nfl-week-3
Going into week 3 against the Giants, SF was ranked 22nd in man coverage, meaning even with the new DC, they don’t play it much.

They were 17th by the time they played Dallas and they probably went up to 17, because they played the Giants and they weren’t that threatened by Jones and the horrible OL.

https://www.pff.com/news/fantasy-football-wr-report-man-zone-coverage-performance-nfl-week-5#SF
 
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