Did the Cowboys overachieve in 2018? Why we need to treat the off-season as if we went 7-9

[DasSchnitzel]

Sure, but that doesn't mean they're going to be winning by any more than they did.

Even if they lead the league in TD %, if they don't add a lot more trips to the red zone, we're not talking about much improvement in scoring. For the sake of round numbers, if they go from 50% to 75%, you're only adding 2 points per red zone opportunity. That's pretty insignificant in terms of blowing teams out, especially for a team with a defense that's due to regress in the red zone. Cowboys opponents had almost the same success rate as Dallas.

2 points more per redzone trip would be pretty big though.

It doesn't sound like a lot when you look at games with 40+ points but with the way Dallas limits possessions, it's pretty big. Until the loss in the playoffs they had won something like 16 straight games when scoring 20 or more.

When the possession count is small, the relative value of each successful redzone trip is higher. When you have 7 points, then 1 TD+XP is worth 100% of your total. When you have 28 points, 1 TD+XP is worth 25% of your total.

In my opinion, the team would do well to improve between the 20s, but the biggest step forward in the win column will come from increased redzone efficiency.

 

[Future]

In my opinion, the team would do well to improve between the 20s, but the biggest step forward in the win column will come from increased redzone efficiency.

But that's assuming that the defensive red zone efficiency doesn't take a dip, in terms of playing fewer one score games.

So yes, 2 points per red zone possession over the course of a season is significant, but in terms of individual games, I'm not sure there's really much tangible difference.

 

[HungryLion]

2 points more per redzone trip would be pretty big though.

It doesn't sound like a lot when you look at games with 40+ points but with the way Dallas limits possessions, it's pretty big. Until the loss in the playoffs they had won something like 16 straight games when scoring 20 or more.

When the possession count is small, the relative value of each successful redzone trip is higher. When you have 7 points, then 1 TD+XP is worth 100% of your total. When you have 28 points, 1 TD+XP is worth 25% of your total.

In my opinion, the team would do well to improve between the 20s, but the biggest step forward in the win column will come from increased redzone efficiency.

I think the biggest step forward the Cowboys could take to winning more games, is to force more turnovers. As great as our defense was in certain respects. They didn’t force enough turnovers.

That will also help generate a better point differential.

 

[DasSchnitzel]

I think the biggest step forward the Cowboys could take to winning more games, is to force more turnovers. As great as our defense was in certain respects. They didn’t force enough turnovers.

That will also help generate a better point differential.

I was speaking specifically in regards to the offense but yeah I'd agree with this

 

[buybuydandavis]

Despite going 7-2, we were actually outscored after the break.

After getting spanked by Indy, we beat two teams playing for draft picks and coming off 2 straight losses.
We beat Seattle.
Got spanked by the Rams.

3 games with playoff caliber teams. Won one, got stomped twice. That's how we finished the season.

 

[TWOK11]

The article’s approach has a fatal fundamental flaw: It doesn’t account for how games became close.

A 20-7 game that ends 20-14 because the losing team scored a last second touchdown and a 14-14 game in which the winning team scored a walk off TD obviously are very different. However, this system renders both games equal.

For instance, our game against New York in Dallas was a “close game” based on the final score, but we dominated and it was never in doubt during the final quarter.

If you corrected for this I have a suspicion the article’s premise becomes far less convincing if not falls apart altogether.

 

[aria]

I wouldn’t bank on the NFCE being as easy this year but at least we get the scrubs from the AFCE, that’s a minumum of 3 wins, 4 if we can beat the Patsies which is definitely doable.

I haven’t looked at other NFCE teams schedules but I assume they get the same AFCE teams as us?

 

[Stash]

Many will poo poo this article as meaningless.

Feel free to decide for yourself what a stat is worth that took 11 years to come up with 23 examples from a 32-team league.

I'd call it worthless.

 

[Stash]

Also, this is a really, really good article.

I think it's crap.

 

[beware_d-ware]

Yep. Regression towards the mean.

To be honest, I think our problem this next year may come due to injuries. Our OL got pretty beat up this year and Sean Lee gonna Sean Lee, but other than that, we got off virtually scot free. If you view injuries as basically a random event (some players are naturally more prone to them than others, but preventing an ACL tear isn't a skill that anyone has), I think we are going to regress towards the mean there as well.

 

[Chrispierce]

That article see’s Dallas as half empty. I see them as half full. Daks actually getting good at winning those close games. The team is. Step below the best teams but,the team isn’t cool with losing,or they wouldn’t have had strong finishes to their records the last two years. They would have quit instead. $20 says sports writer here? Won’t respond to me next year if they win 10 or more games.

 

[JoeKing]

One step forward two steps back is the status quo for this team. So, of course, they overachieved in 2018 and will return to non-playoff mediocrity in 2019. It's just how the roller coaster rolls with this team under the Jason Garrett regime.

 

[StarBoyz83]

It was nice to have a good defense for the 1st time in like 10 years. The d made this season. Gonna need to keep a legit with the offense being mundane and not high scoring.