DMN: BLOG: Breer: Analyzing Barber numbers

[Cbz40]

Analyzing Barber numbers

Albert Breer

4:19 PM Thu, Apr 17, 2008


Back in February, we took a pretty detailed look at the impact that Michael Turner's new contract would have on the Marion Barber negotiations. The bottom line there was that Turner's deal served the Cowboys and Barber's camp with a baseline for negotiations.


Now, with our report that Barber and Drew Rosenhaus are looking for a deal in Larry Johnson's neighborhood, a lot of people 'round here reacted in shock. Well, you might also be surprised to hear this, then ... The gulf between the deals signed by Turner and Johnson really isn't that deep.
The Burner's contract in Atlanta has an AAV (average annual value) of close to $6 million with $15 million in guarantees. LJ's deal has an AAV close to $8 million, but guarantees only $19 million of that. So if guaranteed money is what's important -- and considering that Johnson may not have a ton of tread left on those tires -- you're talking about a relatively small difference for two guys who are locked up through 2012.


I will say that I think a mega-deal for a tailback is always -- always -- risky business. But since it looks like one's coming for MB3, I'll give you this point of reference. Here are six deals cut for backs by Rosenhaus over the last four years, with the year the deal was signed attached to each guy's name. It is worth noting that four of these six deals were signed as guys joined new teams, three of them by trade ...


Frank Gore (2007)
Five years, $28.012 million, nearly $14 million guaranteed
Thomas Jones (2007)
Four years, $20 million, $12 million guaranteed
Willis McGahee (2007)
Seven years, $40.12 million, more than $15 million guaranteed
Fred Taylor (2007)
Three years, $23 million, $4.2 million guaranteed
Edgerrin James (2006)
Four years, $30.5 million, $11.2 million in bonuses
Clinton Portis (2004)
Eight years, $50.2 million, $17 million guaranteed

 

[Redball Express]

That Drew Rosenhaus gets these guys big deals that teams overpay for and then the player drops off the leader board as top RBs..?

I mean none of those guys are setting the league on fire from the RB position at this point heading into 2008.

Meaning Rosenhaus did a great job of capitalizing on the player's performances heading into a last year contract or a trade situation.?

And then the owning team has had to live with average performance at best from that point forward..?

Hmmm...

That's enough to scare me back to the VR draft War Room and start thumbing again thru those RB evals again.

Maybe we just need to refrain from any big deals on MBIII and draft wisely for another featured RB..?

:starspin ReDBaLL ExPreSS :starspin

 

[Eskimo]

That Drew Rosenhaus gets these guys big deals that teams overpay for and then the player drops off the leader board as top RBs..?

I mean none of those guys are setting the league on fire from the RB position at this point heading into 2008.

Meaning Rosenhaus did a great job of capitalizing on the player's performances heading into a last year contract or a trade situation.?

And then the owning team has had to live with average performance at best from that point forward..?

Hmmm...

That's enough to scare me back to the VR draft War Room and start thumbing again thru those RB evals again.

Maybe we just need to refrain from any big deals on MBIII and draft wisely for another featured RB..?

:starspin ReDBaLL ExPreSS :starspin

Unless you have a true elite back, it is best to let them walk and not pay them a huge amount of money. This is a young man's position and the transition to the pro game is quick.

 

[Redball Express]

Unless you have a true elite back, it is best to let them walk and not pay them a huge amount of money. This is a young man's position and the transition to the pro game is quick.

as we look at any pending RB deal with Marion Barber..we need to closely see what has happened.

I mean, as good as MBIII has been over the last 2 seasons in his part-time role, all we as fans have to look at is how Julius Jones worked out.

Had Julius Jones continued to followup on his rookie season with the potential he showed in just half a season, we'd have had a bargain in drafting him in the 2nd rd.

And he'd have had a huge new contract this season for his payday if he'd have continued to produce. But he didn't and now he's gone. Jones proved injury-prone and right from the start he couldn't handle it...physically or mentally.

And I worry about the same issues with MBIII. He's always been a split-backfield back. And with this new contract he's asking, he's asking for lead back money in a split-back offense.

Ain't going to happen.

MBIII is really penalizing Dallas with this contract offer for not succeeding with Julius Jones. I'm not so sure that MBIII won the starter role as much as Jones just abdicated it.

We'll see.

:starspin ReDBaLL ExPreSS:starspin

 

[PoetTree]

But, uh, he had a 101 yards in the first half against the Giants, looking like the stud he was all season in shared duty. And he finished that game with 127 rushing yards total, being tripped up by ankle tackles, stood up by Kavika Mitchell and never having a run over 5 yards in the second half.

Um, I don't know if it means anything at all.

But Darren McFadden looks REALLY good.


Just sayin'.

:

 

[Yeagermeister]

But, uh, he had a 101 yards in the first half against the Giants, looking like the stud he was all season in shared duty. And he finished that game with 127 rushing yards total, being tripped up by ankle tackles, stood up by Kavika Mitchell and never having a run over 5 yards in the second half.

Um, I don't know if it means anything at all.

But Darren McFadden looks REALLY good.


Just sayin'.

:

McFadden is a great talent no doubt. It's what we have to give up to get him that is the problem. We need secondary help more than a rb.