DMN Blog: Breer On New Draft Trade Chart & Schedule

[Hostile]

April 15, 2008

New trade chart

10:12 AM Tue, Apr 15, 2008 | Permalink | Yahoo! Buzz
Albert Breer http://www.***BANNED-URL***/blogs/images/email-icon.jpg E-mail http://www.***BANNED-URL***/blogs/images/email-icon.jpg News tips

With top-of-the-first-round salaries spiraling out of control, the old draft trade chart, it's been said, has been become obsolete.

Pro Football Talk got its hands on this new chart, which the Web site's saying has been circulated through teams' headquarters.

The updated chart has the 22nd overall pick valued at 920 points and the 28th pick at 770 points. For all you Darren McFadden sycophants out there, that puts the total value of the Cowboys' two selections at 1,690 points, meaning its value sits in between that of the fourth (1,750) and fifth (1,675) picks.

The Jets and Patriots seem to be ready and willing to deal out of 6 and 7, respectively, in case you're interested. And the Raiders might try and wiggle out of the fourth slot too. So in the case of first two teams there, the Cowboys might be able to finagle an extra late-round pick out of any deal, and the two picks also might be enough on their own to swing a deal with Oakland.

I wouldn't be in favor of such a move up, and I think all of you are aware of that. But that doesn't mean it's not interesting to think about.



Be careful today

9:52 AM Tue, Apr 15, 2008 | Permalink | Yahoo! Buzz
Albert Breer http://www.***BANNED-URL***/blogs/images/email-icon.jpg E-mail http://www.***BANNED-URL***/blogs/images/email-icon.jpg News tips

I'm as excited as anyone about the NFL schedule coming out today. Which means I'm probably a little too excited about the NFL schedule coming out today.

But I will preach one thing here -- restraint. Trying to assess how tough each slate is might seem like a good idea right now. It's not. Things change, and change quickly in the NFL.

On the day the Cowboys' 2007 schedule came out, you could look at its final six games as a murderous stretch. The toughest games there? Probably home dates against the Jets and Eagles, and the trip to Carolina. And -- who knew? -- none of those teams made the playoffs, while the game against Green Bay, a little bit of a 'blah' game in there, wound up being for home field.

Similarly, back-to-back games at the Bears and against the Rams looked like a strong early season test, one team being the defending NFC champion and the other a Super Bowl darkhorse. Months later, those wins wound up being part of the "So just who have the Cowboys beaten?" argument.

For right now, the Cowboys seem to have drawn the second toughest AFC division (North) and the weakest NFC division (West) on their schedule. But things can change quickly. Say the Browns slip back into irrelevance, or the Steelers have a couple of key injuries. Or maybe the Cardinals emerge as a contender or the 49ers bounce back from a horrid 2007. And what if the Packers and Bucs really slip after winning their divisions last fall?

All the variables tell you this: As much as you might think you know now, there's really no telling how tough a schedule this really is.

 

[iceberg]

thanks hos. just when the MCFADDEN at every turn was dying down..... : )

 

[CaptainAmerica]

I looked at the old chart the other day and it had our 2 first round picks total value putting us right between #5 and #6.

So anyone saying we don't have the ammo to make a move up for McFadden is wrong. We definitely do. The questions are does Jerry want him that bad and is he willing to pay top 5 $$?

I would add this. I don't think the question is so much if JERRY wants McFadden as much as it is a question of whether JASON GARRETT wants him. I fully believe that Jerry listens to everything Jason says and as someone said one time in an interview, "What Jason wants, Jason gets."

 

[theogt]

These "updated" draft charts are pretty much useless. They don't reflect the reality of how draft picks are actually valued historically. You can sit at 22 and 28 and point out your nice new draft chart, but chances are someone at 5 isn't going to think their pick is worth only the 22 and 28 picks.

Someone should do a study of the longterm success of draft picks and then they may actually have some ammo. But simply assigning arbitrary numbers to positions is pretty dumb.

 

[iceberg]

I looked at the old chart the other day and it had our 2 first round picks total value putting us right between #5 and #6.

So anyone saying we don't have the ammo to make a move up for McFadden is wrong. We definitely do. The questions are does Jerry want him that bad and is he willing to pay top 5 $$?

I would add this. I don't think the question is so much if JERRY wants McFadden as much as it is a question of whether JASON GARRETT wants him. I fully believe that Jerry listens to everything Jason says and as someone said one time in an interview, "What Jason wants, Jason gets."

getting mcfadden would be good if the cost wasn't so high. if we had that pick already, make it and run. however, doing it this way could well cost us cason (cb) and r. williams/a. bolden.

so the question is - what would be better?

mcfadden / flowers
cason / r. williams / rice (or similiar)

i like option 2 myself. : )

 

[L-O-Jete]

I looked at the old chart the other day and it had our 2 first round picks total value putting us right between #5 and #6.

[/B][/I]

22=780
28=660
22+28=1440
5=1700
6=1600
7=1500
8=1400

According to my old chart...

 

[Hostile]

thanks hos. just when the MCFADDEN at every turn was dying down..... : )

You should thank Albert Breer, not me.

 

[TheSkaven]

But I will preach one thing here -- restraint. Trying to assess how tough each slate is might seem like a good idea right now. It's not. Things change, and change quickly in the NFL.

Maybe not, but it's fun. What else are we supposed to do in the off-season?

 

[CaptainAmerica]

getting mcfadden would be good if the cost wasn't so high. if we had that pick already, make it and run. however, doing it this way could well cost us cason (cb) and r. williams/a. bolden.

so the question is - what would be better?

mcfadden / flowers
cason / r. williams / rice (or similiar)

i like option 2 myself. : )

Everyone has an opinion and that's what makes the board interesting.

I personally don't think the Lions will trade us RW for one of our first round picks. I'll believe it when I see it. I believe Millen is feeling the heat and is trying to win this year to save his job. RW will make much more impact for the Lions than anyone picked at #22 or #28.

That being said, I believe McFadden is worth it and I would make the move up.

 

[theogt]

Everyone has an opinion and that's what makes the board interesting.

I personally don't think the Lions will trade us RW for one of our first round picks. I'll believe it when I see it. I believe Millen is feeling the heat and is trying to win this year to save his job. RW will make much more impact for the Lions than anyone picked at #22 or #28.

That being said, I believe McFadden is worth it and I would make the move up.

We'd likely have to sweeten the pot. With #28 and Ayodele they would have two long-term defensive starters that would also immediately improve their defense. And all they lose is 1 season from Williams. It's not like they're hurting at all at WR and the storyline is that they're switching to a run-first offense. When they pick up Mendenhall with their first pick, I think they'll feel as though they're set on offense even if they lose Roy.

 

[31smackdown]

I would not exclude KC as a trade partner as well.. they are looking to stockpile picks as they are rebuilding.

 

[ABQCOWBOY]

You should thank Albert Breer, not me.

Well, I'm always and advocate of giving thanks for Beer....auhuhhhh....... I ment giving thanks to Breer.

 

[gollum]

Does Breer not know who Mike Florio is???

 

[SMCowboy]

These "updated" draft charts are pretty much useless. They don't reflect the reality of how draft picks are actually valued historically. You can sit at 22 and 28 and point out your nice new draft chart, but chances are someone at 5 isn't going to think their pick is worth only the 22 and 28 picks.

Someone should do a study of the longterm success of draft picks and then they may actually have some ammo. But simply assigning arbitrary numbers to positions is pretty dumb.

In actuality all draft charts are pretty much useless now days, these new ones are just as valuable as the old ones currently are. Why, because now days teams are trying desperately to get OUT of the top 5. There is talk Miami may let the clock run out on it, and let a few teams ahead of them pick, just so they don't have to pay #1 overall money to a player.

 

[theogt]

In actuality all draft charts are pretty much useless now days, these new ones are just as valuable as the old ones currently are. Why, because now days teams are trying desperately to get OUT of the top 5. There is talk Miami may let the clock run out on it, and let a few teams ahead of them pick, just so they don't have to pay #1 overall money to a player.

The original was based on a statistical study, so no it wasn't just arbitrary and value-less.

 

[CrazyCowboy]

I would love to pull this deal off.

 

[big dog cowboy]

I would love to pull this deal off.

Trust me. We know. Prepare

 

[big dog cowboy]

I would love to pull this deal off.

Trust me. We know. Prepare for disappointment.

 

[ABQCOWBOY]

When the idea of a draft chart was originally thought up, it was only designed to be a guide, of sorts, to steer Jimmy and Jerry in the right direction, very quickly. You had very little time to evaluate trade proposals so it helped to understand if the trade was equitable or not. In fact, I'd say that the chart was never designed to make trades equitable at all. It was designed to help get more out of a deal then what you otherwise might have. Jimmy and Jerry didn't pull out the chart and say, no.....no......., your giving to much here or we're not offering enough here. It's more likely that they looked at the chart and saw where the points were and tried to squeeze out another pick to gain advantage. It's interesting to me that this has evolved into a Holy Grail, of sorts on what can be traded and what is fair. Can't do the trade unless the points add up!

It was never something to be used as a blueprint for trades IMO. Some trades are worth more by merrit of the players involved or the needs of the teams or the value placed on the picks/players by the associated participants. IE, if you really, really want DMac, you can have him but it's going to cost you. Works both ways. If you really, really want to get out of that pick, maybe you will consider a little bit less then what the damn chart says.

 

[StarHead69]

IF we could get McFadden for our two #1's... by all means do it!

It is our bad luck that there are only about 10 blue-chip players in this draft. At #22 and #28, we will have the misfortune of selecting from the second tier players and we will have to pay them first round money. We have a very talented team, I would rather add one of the highest rated RBs to come out in years than a nickleback and a "complimentary" back.