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Five Downs With Football Outsiders: Has Aaron Rodgers been an upgrade from Brett Favre?
8:00 AM Fri, Sep 19, 2008 | Permalink | Yahoo! Buzz
Tim MacMahon E-mail News tips
Bill Barnwell, a contributing editor at footballoutsiders.com and one of the minds behind the must-read Pro Football Prospectus, will answer five Cowboys questions each week of the season using the FO data and methodologies. Here's the Week 3 edition:
1. Is it fair to say that Aaron Rodgers has been an upgrade from the 2007 version of Brett Favre?
It's hard to say -- mainly because of the opposition each has faced.
We have two separate rate statistics that we use to measure performance. The only difference between the two, VOA and DVOA, is the 'D' portion -- that means Defense-Adjusted. We adjust our statistics for opponent to make them more accurate, but after two weeks, we don't know enough about each team to make those sort of adjustments yet.
Last year, Brett Favre's VOA was 28.5% -- he was 28.5% better than the average quarterback after we adjust for down, distance, and situation. His DVOA was 28% -- in other words, he played a slightly-weaker than average schedule, because his VOA was higher than his DVOA.
(For those curious, Tony Romo had a 27% VOA and a 25.5 DVOA.)
Rodgers' VOA so far this year is an impressive 38.1%. That's good for seventh in the league. The complicating factor, naturally, is that Rodgers has faced two poor pass defenses: Minnesota and Detroit.
What we can do is just do a simple comparison to Favre's performance last year. In four games against Minnesota and Detroit, Favre's QB Rating was 120.8. Rodgers QB rating so far this year: 117.8. I'd say that their performances have been pretty similar, but I'm interested in seeing how Rodgers does against a legitimate pass rush this week. He played well against the Cowboys in a relief role last year after Favre went down, but this is a totally different scenario.
2. Pat Watkins is the Cowboys' starting strong safety for the next three or four weeks. How has he performed in pass coverage the last couple seasons?
One thing we have to note before we do any analysis is the context, which is different here: Last time around, Watkins was playing free safety and having to play alongside Roy Williams; this time, he can play a more natural role and go alongside Ken Hamlin.
Watkins, according to our metrics and onlookers of the 2006 Cowboys season, had an abysmal rookie year. Despite playing far from the line (his average tackle was made nearly eight yards away from the line of scrimmage, 60th amongst safeties), he allowed an astounding 16 yards per attempt. That was 80th amongst safeties. His success rate, 52%, was 45th in the league. Clearly, Watkins was not a good fit for the role he was in.
Watkins' 2007 barely saw him play enough to get listed in our book -- he was targeted only 10 times, and allowed 4.6 yards per attempt, a very good number.
The reality, naturally, is somewhere in between. If he does a solid job against the run and can improve at all on Williams' coverage, I think the Cowboys would have to be happy.
3. Where does Jay Ratliff rank among 3-4 nose tackles in the Football Outsiders data considered most important for that position?
Very high up there. My favorite metric for judging nose tackles is the average yardage at which they made plays -- while it doesn't account for things like double-teams, it indicates how much penetration a tackle is getting.
Ratliff was double-teamed less than most 3-4 tackles (you'd figure that Vince Wilfork, Casey Hampton, and Jamal Williams would get double-teamed way more frequently, and you'd be right), but he made his average play .7 yards away from the line of scrimmage, fifth-best amongst tackles in football. In comparison, Hampton was 16th, Wilfork 20th, and Williams 50th. Number one amongst all tackles was former 4-3 tackle Shaun Rogers, who now plays the nose in Cleveland and made his average tackle a half-yard behind the line of scrimmage. Pretty impressive.
4. Green Bay's Al Harris and Charles Woodson have a reputation as an elite cornerback tandem. Do your stats back that up?
They did until last year. Harris was one of the league's best players in 2006, a coverage dynamo who ranked in the top-ten in most of our defensive categories. Woodson was a very good #2 corner, and the Packers arguably had one of the best sets in football.
In 2007, that changed. Woodson allowed 7.7 yards per attempt, only 50th in the league, albeit with a 58% success rate that was eighth-best amongst corners.
Harris, however, fell off a cliff. He allowed 9.4 yards per attempt after only giving up 6.1 the year before. That was 73rd-best for all corners. His success rate went from 63% (4th) to 40% (74th). He was targeted on 17% of throws, a high number (53rd in the league), so it wasn't as if teams were avoiding him. He just had a bad year, and it ended in the NFC Championship Game with a gimpy Plaxico Burress absolutely mangling him.
5. Who or what has been the biggest surprise in the NFC East over the season's first two weeks?
I'd have to say the Giants pass rush. Obviously, the Giants had a fearsome pass rush last year, but they lost their two best players in Michael Strahan and Osi Umenyiora. Granted, they were up against a seemingly-confused Commanders team and the Rams, but their rush has been better than I expected, particularly Justin Tuck. Tuck's a fantastic player, but last year, he was up against single blockers, often on the interior; now, despite being double-teamed and playing on the outside, he still has three sacks in two games. That's a great start.
8:00 AM Fri, Sep 19, 2008 | Permalink | Yahoo! Buzz
Tim MacMahon E-mail News tips
Bill Barnwell, a contributing editor at footballoutsiders.com and one of the minds behind the must-read Pro Football Prospectus, will answer five Cowboys questions each week of the season using the FO data and methodologies. Here's the Week 3 edition:
1. Is it fair to say that Aaron Rodgers has been an upgrade from the 2007 version of Brett Favre?
It's hard to say -- mainly because of the opposition each has faced.
We have two separate rate statistics that we use to measure performance. The only difference between the two, VOA and DVOA, is the 'D' portion -- that means Defense-Adjusted. We adjust our statistics for opponent to make them more accurate, but after two weeks, we don't know enough about each team to make those sort of adjustments yet.
Last year, Brett Favre's VOA was 28.5% -- he was 28.5% better than the average quarterback after we adjust for down, distance, and situation. His DVOA was 28% -- in other words, he played a slightly-weaker than average schedule, because his VOA was higher than his DVOA.
(For those curious, Tony Romo had a 27% VOA and a 25.5 DVOA.)
Rodgers' VOA so far this year is an impressive 38.1%. That's good for seventh in the league. The complicating factor, naturally, is that Rodgers has faced two poor pass defenses: Minnesota and Detroit.
What we can do is just do a simple comparison to Favre's performance last year. In four games against Minnesota and Detroit, Favre's QB Rating was 120.8. Rodgers QB rating so far this year: 117.8. I'd say that their performances have been pretty similar, but I'm interested in seeing how Rodgers does against a legitimate pass rush this week. He played well against the Cowboys in a relief role last year after Favre went down, but this is a totally different scenario.
2. Pat Watkins is the Cowboys' starting strong safety for the next three or four weeks. How has he performed in pass coverage the last couple seasons?
One thing we have to note before we do any analysis is the context, which is different here: Last time around, Watkins was playing free safety and having to play alongside Roy Williams; this time, he can play a more natural role and go alongside Ken Hamlin.
Watkins, according to our metrics and onlookers of the 2006 Cowboys season, had an abysmal rookie year. Despite playing far from the line (his average tackle was made nearly eight yards away from the line of scrimmage, 60th amongst safeties), he allowed an astounding 16 yards per attempt. That was 80th amongst safeties. His success rate, 52%, was 45th in the league. Clearly, Watkins was not a good fit for the role he was in.
Watkins' 2007 barely saw him play enough to get listed in our book -- he was targeted only 10 times, and allowed 4.6 yards per attempt, a very good number.
The reality, naturally, is somewhere in between. If he does a solid job against the run and can improve at all on Williams' coverage, I think the Cowboys would have to be happy.
3. Where does Jay Ratliff rank among 3-4 nose tackles in the Football Outsiders data considered most important for that position?
Very high up there. My favorite metric for judging nose tackles is the average yardage at which they made plays -- while it doesn't account for things like double-teams, it indicates how much penetration a tackle is getting.
Ratliff was double-teamed less than most 3-4 tackles (you'd figure that Vince Wilfork, Casey Hampton, and Jamal Williams would get double-teamed way more frequently, and you'd be right), but he made his average play .7 yards away from the line of scrimmage, fifth-best amongst tackles in football. In comparison, Hampton was 16th, Wilfork 20th, and Williams 50th. Number one amongst all tackles was former 4-3 tackle Shaun Rogers, who now plays the nose in Cleveland and made his average tackle a half-yard behind the line of scrimmage. Pretty impressive.
4. Green Bay's Al Harris and Charles Woodson have a reputation as an elite cornerback tandem. Do your stats back that up?
They did until last year. Harris was one of the league's best players in 2006, a coverage dynamo who ranked in the top-ten in most of our defensive categories. Woodson was a very good #2 corner, and the Packers arguably had one of the best sets in football.
In 2007, that changed. Woodson allowed 7.7 yards per attempt, only 50th in the league, albeit with a 58% success rate that was eighth-best amongst corners.
Harris, however, fell off a cliff. He allowed 9.4 yards per attempt after only giving up 6.1 the year before. That was 73rd-best for all corners. His success rate went from 63% (4th) to 40% (74th). He was targeted on 17% of throws, a high number (53rd in the league), so it wasn't as if teams were avoiding him. He just had a bad year, and it ended in the NFC Championship Game with a gimpy Plaxico Burress absolutely mangling him.
5. Who or what has been the biggest surprise in the NFC East over the season's first two weeks?
I'd have to say the Giants pass rush. Obviously, the Giants had a fearsome pass rush last year, but they lost their two best players in Michael Strahan and Osi Umenyiora. Granted, they were up against a seemingly-confused Commanders team and the Rams, but their rush has been better than I expected, particularly Justin Tuck. Tuck's a fantastic player, but last year, he was up against single blockers, often on the interior; now, despite being double-teamed and playing on the outside, he still has three sacks in two games. That's a great start.
