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Five Downs With Football Outsiders: Would Brooks Bollinger be better than Brad Johnson?
1:38 AM Fri, Oct 31, 2008 | Permalink | Yahoo! Buzz
Tim MacMahon E-mail News tips
Bill Barnwell, a contributing editor at footballoutsiders.com and one of the minds behind the must-read Pro Football Prospectus, will answer five Cowboys questions each week of the season using the FO data and methodologies. Here's the Week 9 edition:
1. Based on FO data, would Brooks Bollinger do a better job at quarterback than Brad Johnson against the Giants?
Right now, we measure Brad Johnson's performance as being well below what we call replacement-value. That's a mathematical measurement of how a player considered freely-available talent would do given the same opportunities that Johnson would. In the case of the NFL, freely-available talent would be considered the quality of a street free agent, which is about what Brooks Bollinger has been defined to be. Johnson has accumulated -101 DYAR in two games, putting him above only JaMarcus Russell, Tyler Thigpen, Damon Huard, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and J.T. O'Sullivan. That's not exactly a great crew, and none (except perhaps Fitzpatrick) have anywhere near the offense surrounding them that Johnson does.
I think at this point, both our data and my eyes say that they couldn't do any worse with Bollinger out there. I think the only real fear is that the Cowboys might get in a situation similar to the one that's developed in Minnesota, where the Vikings went from Tarvaris Jackson to Gus Frerotte, realized that they were both terrible, and ended up with two quarterbacks with no confidence. The Cowboys have the benefit of knowing that Tony Romo's coming back soon enough, but I think that benching Johnson at this point would pretty much be ending his career as a Cowboy short an emergency situation.
2. How far has the Cowboys' offense fallen in your rankings after two games without Tony Romo?
After Week 6, the Cowboys' offensive DVOA was 23.7% -- third in football. In the ensuing two weeks, their DVOA was a woeful -17.4%, 29th in the league. That's dropped down to a 13.4% DVOA, currently placing them tenth in football.
3. There's obviously a significant dropoff from Jason Witten to Martellus Bennett. But the rookie from Texas A&M does have the best DVOA of any tight end in the league. What does that mean?
That means that, at the moment, Bennett does the most with the passes thrown to him of any tight end in football. He's averaging over 18 yards a catch, a hefty figure for a tight end, and catching 62% of the passes thrown to him.
Of course, that has a lot to do with the fact that he's playing alongside the Cowboys' cavalcade of receivers, specifically Jason Witten. Teams can only cover so many guys, and a lot of Bennett's work has involved slipping through the cracks. If Witten is out and replaced by Bennett, he'd see better coverage and see his performance decrease some.
Either way, I expect the Cowboys to keep their tight ends in as pass blockers on Sunday. That's the way they did things against the Giants in both the second regular season game and the playoff game last year, and their pass blocking in the latter was remarkable for three quarters -- it was just in the fourth that they collapsed and the Giants' defensive line took over.
4. The Cowboys are coming off an outstanding defensive performance in the win over Tampa Bay. Was that a sign of things to come or a statistical fluke?
More the former than the latter. I think that we've seen the Cowboys' defense take a big step backwards so far this year, and Brian Stewart was scapegoated because of it, but I don't think they're as bad as they've seemed. There's too many young, talented players there, and I don't think losing Akin Ayodele really hurt the team that much. Jay Ratliff and DeMarcus Ware have been great, but I think there's been disappointing performances elsewhere by guys like Greg Ellis and Marcus Spears. Their DVOA was tenth last year and it's 19th after the Bucs game; I'd expect it to head towards tenth again, although they probably won't make it there.
5. What's the matchup with the Giants that should most concern the Cowboys?
Ooh, that's a tough one. I'm gonna cheat and pick one offensive one and one defensive one.
Offensively, it's Steve Smith versus the various guys assigned to cover him. Smith's having a fantastic year as the Giants' slot receiver, basically playing the Wes Welker or Patrick Crayton role to perfection. A lot of the improvement that was attributed to Eli Manning over the playoffs last year and the first half of this season is really due to the abilities of Smith, who missed most of 2007 with injuries but played very well in the playoffs. What's funny is that he only seems to run a read where he has to choose between a crossing route and a quick out, and he seems to be the Giants' target on every single third down they face, but he's still consistently successful. He also mitigates the pass rush because he's in and out of his breaks and into open space so quickly -- simply put, even Ware will struggle to get to Eli Manning before he can identify Smith's read and get the ball out to him. He's a drive-extender.
Defensively, it's a cop-out answer, but Justin Tuck versus everyone, because the Giants will line him up everywhere from end to tackle to linebacker. I'll spare you the Tuck bio since I'm sure you've all heard of him before, but suffice to say, he warrants the hype. The Giants will try and move him around to find the best matchup for him while keeping their other players fresh. I suspect they won't line him up a lot in the middle because of the fear that he'll get overwhelmed by Andre Gurode and Leonard Davis.
I think what you'll see Tuck doing is a lot of stunts and twists to try and get him isolated against Cory Procter (or a returning Kyle Kosier), or lining up on the ends to try and go around Flozell Adams or Marc Colombo. I will boldly predict two false starts for Adams this week.
1:38 AM Fri, Oct 31, 2008 | Permalink | Yahoo! Buzz
Tim MacMahon E-mail News tips
Bill Barnwell, a contributing editor at footballoutsiders.com and one of the minds behind the must-read Pro Football Prospectus, will answer five Cowboys questions each week of the season using the FO data and methodologies. Here's the Week 9 edition:
1. Based on FO data, would Brooks Bollinger do a better job at quarterback than Brad Johnson against the Giants?
Right now, we measure Brad Johnson's performance as being well below what we call replacement-value. That's a mathematical measurement of how a player considered freely-available talent would do given the same opportunities that Johnson would. In the case of the NFL, freely-available talent would be considered the quality of a street free agent, which is about what Brooks Bollinger has been defined to be. Johnson has accumulated -101 DYAR in two games, putting him above only JaMarcus Russell, Tyler Thigpen, Damon Huard, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and J.T. O'Sullivan. That's not exactly a great crew, and none (except perhaps Fitzpatrick) have anywhere near the offense surrounding them that Johnson does.
I think at this point, both our data and my eyes say that they couldn't do any worse with Bollinger out there. I think the only real fear is that the Cowboys might get in a situation similar to the one that's developed in Minnesota, where the Vikings went from Tarvaris Jackson to Gus Frerotte, realized that they were both terrible, and ended up with two quarterbacks with no confidence. The Cowboys have the benefit of knowing that Tony Romo's coming back soon enough, but I think that benching Johnson at this point would pretty much be ending his career as a Cowboy short an emergency situation.
2. How far has the Cowboys' offense fallen in your rankings after two games without Tony Romo?
After Week 6, the Cowboys' offensive DVOA was 23.7% -- third in football. In the ensuing two weeks, their DVOA was a woeful -17.4%, 29th in the league. That's dropped down to a 13.4% DVOA, currently placing them tenth in football.
3. There's obviously a significant dropoff from Jason Witten to Martellus Bennett. But the rookie from Texas A&M does have the best DVOA of any tight end in the league. What does that mean?
That means that, at the moment, Bennett does the most with the passes thrown to him of any tight end in football. He's averaging over 18 yards a catch, a hefty figure for a tight end, and catching 62% of the passes thrown to him.
Of course, that has a lot to do with the fact that he's playing alongside the Cowboys' cavalcade of receivers, specifically Jason Witten. Teams can only cover so many guys, and a lot of Bennett's work has involved slipping through the cracks. If Witten is out and replaced by Bennett, he'd see better coverage and see his performance decrease some.
Either way, I expect the Cowboys to keep their tight ends in as pass blockers on Sunday. That's the way they did things against the Giants in both the second regular season game and the playoff game last year, and their pass blocking in the latter was remarkable for three quarters -- it was just in the fourth that they collapsed and the Giants' defensive line took over.
4. The Cowboys are coming off an outstanding defensive performance in the win over Tampa Bay. Was that a sign of things to come or a statistical fluke?
More the former than the latter. I think that we've seen the Cowboys' defense take a big step backwards so far this year, and Brian Stewart was scapegoated because of it, but I don't think they're as bad as they've seemed. There's too many young, talented players there, and I don't think losing Akin Ayodele really hurt the team that much. Jay Ratliff and DeMarcus Ware have been great, but I think there's been disappointing performances elsewhere by guys like Greg Ellis and Marcus Spears. Their DVOA was tenth last year and it's 19th after the Bucs game; I'd expect it to head towards tenth again, although they probably won't make it there.
5. What's the matchup with the Giants that should most concern the Cowboys?
Ooh, that's a tough one. I'm gonna cheat and pick one offensive one and one defensive one.
Offensively, it's Steve Smith versus the various guys assigned to cover him. Smith's having a fantastic year as the Giants' slot receiver, basically playing the Wes Welker or Patrick Crayton role to perfection. A lot of the improvement that was attributed to Eli Manning over the playoffs last year and the first half of this season is really due to the abilities of Smith, who missed most of 2007 with injuries but played very well in the playoffs. What's funny is that he only seems to run a read where he has to choose between a crossing route and a quick out, and he seems to be the Giants' target on every single third down they face, but he's still consistently successful. He also mitigates the pass rush because he's in and out of his breaks and into open space so quickly -- simply put, even Ware will struggle to get to Eli Manning before he can identify Smith's read and get the ball out to him. He's a drive-extender.
Defensively, it's a cop-out answer, but Justin Tuck versus everyone, because the Giants will line him up everywhere from end to tackle to linebacker. I'll spare you the Tuck bio since I'm sure you've all heard of him before, but suffice to say, he warrants the hype. The Giants will try and move him around to find the best matchup for him while keeping their other players fresh. I suspect they won't line him up a lot in the middle because of the fear that he'll get overwhelmed by Andre Gurode and Leonard Davis.
I think what you'll see Tuck doing is a lot of stunts and twists to try and get him isolated against Cory Procter (or a returning Kyle Kosier), or lining up on the ends to try and go around Flozell Adams or Marc Colombo. I will boldly predict two false starts for Adams this week.
