DMN Blog: Gerald Sensabaugh vs. Roy Williams

[WoodysGirl]

11:54 AM Mon, Mar 23, 2009 | Permalink | Yahoo! Buzz
Tim MacMahon E-mail News tips

The Cowboys obviously believe that Gerald Sensabaugh is a better fit in Wade Phillips' scheme than Roy Williams.

They cleared a little more than $2 million in salary cap room by releasing Williams. They spent $1.75 million of that by signing Sensabaugh to a one-year deal.

Sensabaugh is considered a solid run defender, not in Williams' class. But Sensabaugh is far superior in pass coverage.

I asked Bill Barnwell, our friend from Football Outsiders who first mentioned Sensabaugh as a potential fit for the Cowboys, to crunch some numbers to provide evidence. Here's the comparison of Sensabaugh in coverage as a starter for Jacksonville last season vs. Williams' '07 campaign with the Cowboys:

Sensabaugh '08: 40 targets, 7.0 yards per attempt; 53% success rate. 5 passes defensed, 4 interceptions.
Williams '07: 59 targets, 8.1 yards per attempt; 37% success rate. 6 passes defensed, 2 interceptions.

Teams went out of their way to target Williams; he was the second-most targeted safety in football in 2007, while Sensabaugh will end up middle of the pack.

Success rate: Percentage of the time the player targeted in coverage didn't allow more than 45% of the yardage needed for a first down on first down, 60% of the yardage needed on second down, or 100% of the yardage needed on third or fourth down.

 

[Rampage]

the 2nd most targeted safety. nuff said.

 

[ethiostar]

11:54 AM Mon, Mar 23, 2009 | Permalink | Yahoo! Buzz
Tim MacMahon E-mail News tips

The Cowboys obviously believe that Gerald Sensabaugh is a better fit in Wade Phillips' scheme than Roy Williams.

They cleared a little more than $2 million in salary cap room by releasing Williams. They spent $1.75 million of that by signing Sensabaugh to a one-year deal.

Sensabaugh is considered a solid run defender, not in Williams' class. But Sensabaugh is far superior in pass coverage.

I asked Bill Barnwell, our friend from Football Outsiders who first mentioned Sensabaugh as a potential fit for the Cowboys, to crunch some numbers to provide evidence. Here's the comparison of Sensabaugh in coverage as a starter for Jacksonville last season vs. Williams' '07 campaign with the Cowboys:

Sensabaugh '08: 40 targets, 7.0 yards per attempt; 53% success rate. 5 passes defensed, 4 interceptions.
Williams '07: 59 targets, 8.1 yards per attempt; 37% success rate. 6 passes defensed, 2 interceptions.

Teams went out of their way to target Williams; he was the second-most targeted safety in football in 2007, while Sensabaugh will end up middle of the pack.

Success rate: Percentage of the time the player targeted in coverage didn't allow more than 45% of the yardage needed for a first down on first down, 60% of the yardage needed on second down, or 100% of the yardage needed on third or fourth down.

My Wonderlic score must be low cause i have no idea what that meant. :

 

[Bob Sacamano]

the 2nd most targeted safety. nuff said.

>>>2nd most targeted by babes<<<<

 

[ComicBookGuy]

My Wonderlic score must be low cause i have no idea what that meant. :

Higher percentages are better.

 

[WoodysGirl]

My Wonderlic score must be low cause i have no idea what that meant. :

I'm also confused why he didn't compare the same seasons. Wouldn't it have made sense to compare both of their '07 seasons?

Based on the numbers posted, doesn't sound like too much of an upgrade on the field. Solid guy overal and he does come cheaper, so that's a plus.

 

[Nav22]

Nice read. I'm not expecting a whole lot from this guy, but if he can stay out of trouble he might be a nice upgrade.

We only need "solid" from him.

 

[DCBoysfan]

the 2nd most targeted safety. nuff said.

I wonder who was first

 

[ethiostar]

I'm also confused why he didn't compare the same seasons. Wouldn't it have made sense to compare both of their '07 seasons?

Based on the numbers posted, doesn't sound like much of an upgrade on the field. However, he does come cheaper, so that's a plus.

I think that's because the new kid didn't start for any significant number of games for the jags until 08 but RW missed most of the year in 08 with an injury.

 

[ethiostar]

Higher percentages are better.

oh ok, thanks.

 

[WoodysGirl]

I think that's because the new kid didn't start for any significant number of games for the jags until 08 but RW missed most of the year in 08 with an injury.

I got why they didn't compare '08. I guess it was a matter of comparing the seasons in which they both played.

And if you can't compare similarly played seasons, then why do the comparison?

 

[ethiostar]

I got why they didn't compare '08. I guess it was a matter of comparing the seasons in which they both played.

And if you can't compare similarly played seasons, then why do the comparison?

I don't know WG, slow time of the year for football sport writers i guess

 

[Rampage]

I got why they didn't compare '08. I guess it was a matter of comparing the seasons in which they both played.

And if you can't compare similarly played seasons, then why do the comparison?

just let it go. he sucks now and the stats prove it.

 

[jterrell]

pretty big upgrade based on numbers.

Sensabaugh '08: 40 targets, 7.0 yards per attempt; 53% success rate. 5 passes defensed, 4 interceptions.
Williams '07: 59 targets, 8.1 yards per attempt; 37% success rate. 6 passes defensed, 2 interceptions.


That means Sensabaugh was successful over half the time, gave up over a 1 yard less per reception, and made 9 plays(4 picks) on the ball in 40 attempts.

RW38 was successful just over a third of the time, had 8 plays(on 2 picks) on the ball in 59 attempts.

Oh and Dallas has 49 sacks in 07 compared to 29 for Jax in 08 so you can figure coverage was a little easier to pull off for RW as he had more pressure helping the cause.

 

[jterrell]

I got why they didn't compare '08. I guess it was a matter of comparing the seasons in which they both played.

And if you can't compare similarly played seasons, then why do the comparison?

He was asked to

 

[WoodysGirl]

just let it go. he sucks now and the stats prove it.

Let what go? Sensabaugh's here. Roy's not. That's a fact.

I don't think what I'm questioning is unreasonable. I'm not questioning levels of suckitude. I'm not questioning the actual numbers. I'm questioning why they compared those specific numbers.

You hold onto the rage... I prefer discussion.

He was asked to

Well that makes sense...

 

[wileedog]

And if you can't compare similarly played seasons, then why do the comparison?

They are one year off, and both years are the most recent each player started a full season.

Not sure why that isn't a valid comparison? Was there something significantly different in the NFL in 2007 vs. 2008?

 

[speedkilz88]

My Wonderlic score must be low cause i have no idea what that meant. :

It took me a minute to get it, I'll leave examples after each one with the standard ten yards in each example; realize that each down the yardage could in reality be shorter or longer and thats where their percentages come in.

Success rate: Percentage of the time the player targeted in coverage didn't allow more than 45% of the yardage needed for a first down on first down,
First and 10. This would be not allowing more than 4.5 yds on first down and 10.

60% of the yardage needed on second down,
Second and 10. This would be not allowing more than 6 yds on second and 10


or 100% of the yardage needed on third or fourth down.
3rd and 10 and not allowing the first down.

Then they tally successful stops and unsuccessful stops and give the overall percentage of success. 53% for Gerald, 37% for Roy.

I hope that helps.

 

[ethiostar]

It took me a minute to get it, I'll leave examples after each one with the standard ten yards in each example; realize that each down could in reality be shorter or longer and thats where their percentages come in.


I hope that helps.

Thanks speed, it took me a while but i did finally get it.

 

[jterrell]

They are one year off, and both years are the most recent each player started a full season.

Not sure why that isn't a valid comparison? Was there something significantly different in the NFL in 2007 vs. 2008?

generally you'd see it offered up what the numbers for each were in those seasons even if painfully abbreviated and then it explained to have enough info to be statistically relevant you had to use different seasons.

but again this guy was just handing out info on request not writing an article.