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Five Downs With Football Outsiders: Is Orlando Scandrick better than Mike Jenkins and Aqib Talib?
7:30 AM Fri, Sep 11, 2009 | Permalink | Yahoo! Buzz
Tim MacMahon/Blogger http://www.***BANNED-URL***/blogs/images/bio-icon.jpg Bio | http://www.***BANNED-URL***/blogs/images/email-icon.jpg E-mail | http://www.***BANNED-URL***/blogs/images/email-icon.jpg News tips
Bill Barnwell, a contributing editor at footballoutsiders.com and one of the minds behind the must-read Football Outsiders Almanac 2009, will answer five Cowboys questions each week of the season using the FO data and methodologies. The Week 1 edition:
You are a GM with the benefit of hindsight. Which cornerback would you pick first in the 2008 draft: Aqib Talib, Mike Jenkins or Orlando Scandrick? How would you rank their rookie seasons?
I think you'd have to say Scandrick had the best season. Certainly, our numbers say as much. Talib struggled with a hamstring injury, but he played better as the season went along. Tampa had the best pass defense in the league against No. 2 receivers, and his performance had a fair amount to do with that. (They were awful against No. 1 receivers, but from what I saw of the Buccaneers, that had more to do with Ronde Barber than anyone else.)
Jenkins would be a distant third in that mirror, but as hard as it is sometimes, you have to be patient when it comes to analyzing whether a player is a bust or not. There's plenty of players who take more than one season to really develop at this level -- consider Corey Webster, who was awful to the point of being a healthy inactive in 2007, fell into a starting job in the playoffs, put on some good performances, and then looked like one of the best corners in the league a year ago. Alternately, think about Bucs wideout Michael Clayton. He had one of the best rookie years of any wide receiver in history, and has followed it with four seasons of no more than 38 catches or 484 yards.
Although we can start looking back now, it would be foolish to place Jenkins in the "bust" camp or Scandrick into the "steal" side of the equation. A lot can change in a year or two.
Which will be the more productive tailback trio this season: Tampa Bay's Cadillac Williams, Derrick Ward and Earnest Graham or Dallas' Marion Barber, Felix Jones and Tashard Choice?
The determining factor in that equation is going to be what happens around those players, not necessarily their "true" level of performance. To be able to run the ball, you also have to be able to throw the ball; there's significant concern that Tampa won't be able to, and some mild concern that Dallas might struggle to do so (although I personally think both will be able to with some effectiveness).
If both their passing games are sound, then you have to consider the health of the offensive lines in front of them. Both these teams have very good offensive lines when they stay healthy. I'd venture to guess that the team whose starting five offensive linemen start more games than the other team's starting five will have a superior running game, making their tailbacks look more productive.
Did the Bucs upgrade at quarterback by getting rid of Jeff Garcia and bringing in Byron Leftwich?
I think it was a lateral move, although they're different sorts of players. Garcia was 18th in the league in DYAR and 16th in DVOA last year despite having a pretty good line and an ace receiver in Antonio Bryant. Leftwich hasn't been good since 2005, but he was very good that year, ranking eighth in the league in DVOA.
Again, a lot of the definition of whether Leftwich "succeeds" in Tampa will come down to the players around him. Naturally, he's supposed to make them better, but if Antonio Bryant has another brainfart and Kellen Winslow gets hurt, well, no quarterback's going to look good. There's also inherently going to be a short leash on the guy because of the presence of Josh Freeman.
There is a faction of Dallas media that believes Bradie James should have been a Pro Bowler last season. Tampa Bay's Barrett Ruud also didn't get an invitation to Hawaii. Which inside linebacker had the better year?
You should put that faction of the Dallas media in a room with the clip of Lorenzo Neal laying James out from the Ravens game last year playing over and over again until they change their mind.
We can't strictly compare Ruud to James statistically because their roles are different. Ruud is the middle linebacker in a 4-3, so he's going to make more plays than James would as one of the inside linebackers in a 3-4. Even so, it's hard to argue that James was on the same level as Ruud, who made 18.6% of his team's plays -- more than any other linebacker in the league. Those plays weren't very close to the line of scrimmage, which is usually thanks to poor performance up front. His charting numbers in pass coverage were also very good.
James ranked 18th in the league in plays, which isn't bad at all, but he also made his plays way off the line of scrimmage (3.9 yards away, tied for 74th in the league, and right around Ruud's level) and had poor numbers in pass coverage. Having an ambulatory linebacker next to him would have helped, but he might have to wait until 2010 for that.
So, by our statistics, Ruud was way better in coverage and made more plays. James ... talks more. Good player, that Bradie James, but just because everyone else on the Cowboys' roster made the Pro Bowl in 2007 doesn't mean James should get to go, too.
The Bucs finished sixth last season in the FO defensive efficiency ratings. What are your expectations for that unit after losing longtime defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin and legendary OLB Derrick Brooks among other pieces?
We're projecting a slight decline from their performance of a year ago, when they were sixth in the league in defensive DVOA, at -7.3%.
Our projection system looks favorably on teams that promote their defensive coordinators from within as opposed to those which bring in a new guy from outside, because we've seen way more positive improvements from the former than we have from the latter. (It also might be subject to some bias; teams might only promote from inside if they have an effective defense, or if they have supreme confidence in the new guy.) Although Jim Bates is coming in from outside the organization, he'll be answering to Raheem Morris, who was already in the organization. So we might be overestimating the impact of the switch there.
As for those old guys, well, they might not have been playing all that well. Even if losing them is a detriment, there should be a positive impact from the improvements made by players like DE Gaines Adams, Ruud, and CB Aqib Talib. So we're not expecting much of a slip-up or an improvement, one way or another.
7:30 AM Fri, Sep 11, 2009 | Permalink | Yahoo! Buzz
Tim MacMahon/Blogger http://www.***BANNED-URL***/blogs/images/bio-icon.jpg Bio | http://www.***BANNED-URL***/blogs/images/email-icon.jpg E-mail | http://www.***BANNED-URL***/blogs/images/email-icon.jpg News tips
Bill Barnwell, a contributing editor at footballoutsiders.com and one of the minds behind the must-read Football Outsiders Almanac 2009, will answer five Cowboys questions each week of the season using the FO data and methodologies. The Week 1 edition:
You are a GM with the benefit of hindsight. Which cornerback would you pick first in the 2008 draft: Aqib Talib, Mike Jenkins or Orlando Scandrick? How would you rank their rookie seasons?
I think you'd have to say Scandrick had the best season. Certainly, our numbers say as much. Talib struggled with a hamstring injury, but he played better as the season went along. Tampa had the best pass defense in the league against No. 2 receivers, and his performance had a fair amount to do with that. (They were awful against No. 1 receivers, but from what I saw of the Buccaneers, that had more to do with Ronde Barber than anyone else.)
Jenkins would be a distant third in that mirror, but as hard as it is sometimes, you have to be patient when it comes to analyzing whether a player is a bust or not. There's plenty of players who take more than one season to really develop at this level -- consider Corey Webster, who was awful to the point of being a healthy inactive in 2007, fell into a starting job in the playoffs, put on some good performances, and then looked like one of the best corners in the league a year ago. Alternately, think about Bucs wideout Michael Clayton. He had one of the best rookie years of any wide receiver in history, and has followed it with four seasons of no more than 38 catches or 484 yards.
Although we can start looking back now, it would be foolish to place Jenkins in the "bust" camp or Scandrick into the "steal" side of the equation. A lot can change in a year or two.
Which will be the more productive tailback trio this season: Tampa Bay's Cadillac Williams, Derrick Ward and Earnest Graham or Dallas' Marion Barber, Felix Jones and Tashard Choice?
The determining factor in that equation is going to be what happens around those players, not necessarily their "true" level of performance. To be able to run the ball, you also have to be able to throw the ball; there's significant concern that Tampa won't be able to, and some mild concern that Dallas might struggle to do so (although I personally think both will be able to with some effectiveness).
If both their passing games are sound, then you have to consider the health of the offensive lines in front of them. Both these teams have very good offensive lines when they stay healthy. I'd venture to guess that the team whose starting five offensive linemen start more games than the other team's starting five will have a superior running game, making their tailbacks look more productive.
Did the Bucs upgrade at quarterback by getting rid of Jeff Garcia and bringing in Byron Leftwich?
I think it was a lateral move, although they're different sorts of players. Garcia was 18th in the league in DYAR and 16th in DVOA last year despite having a pretty good line and an ace receiver in Antonio Bryant. Leftwich hasn't been good since 2005, but he was very good that year, ranking eighth in the league in DVOA.
Again, a lot of the definition of whether Leftwich "succeeds" in Tampa will come down to the players around him. Naturally, he's supposed to make them better, but if Antonio Bryant has another brainfart and Kellen Winslow gets hurt, well, no quarterback's going to look good. There's also inherently going to be a short leash on the guy because of the presence of Josh Freeman.
There is a faction of Dallas media that believes Bradie James should have been a Pro Bowler last season. Tampa Bay's Barrett Ruud also didn't get an invitation to Hawaii. Which inside linebacker had the better year?
You should put that faction of the Dallas media in a room with the clip of Lorenzo Neal laying James out from the Ravens game last year playing over and over again until they change their mind.
We can't strictly compare Ruud to James statistically because their roles are different. Ruud is the middle linebacker in a 4-3, so he's going to make more plays than James would as one of the inside linebackers in a 3-4. Even so, it's hard to argue that James was on the same level as Ruud, who made 18.6% of his team's plays -- more than any other linebacker in the league. Those plays weren't very close to the line of scrimmage, which is usually thanks to poor performance up front. His charting numbers in pass coverage were also very good.
James ranked 18th in the league in plays, which isn't bad at all, but he also made his plays way off the line of scrimmage (3.9 yards away, tied for 74th in the league, and right around Ruud's level) and had poor numbers in pass coverage. Having an ambulatory linebacker next to him would have helped, but he might have to wait until 2010 for that.
So, by our statistics, Ruud was way better in coverage and made more plays. James ... talks more. Good player, that Bradie James, but just because everyone else on the Cowboys' roster made the Pro Bowl in 2007 doesn't mean James should get to go, too.
The Bucs finished sixth last season in the FO defensive efficiency ratings. What are your expectations for that unit after losing longtime defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin and legendary OLB Derrick Brooks among other pieces?
We're projecting a slight decline from their performance of a year ago, when they were sixth in the league in defensive DVOA, at -7.3%.
Our projection system looks favorably on teams that promote their defensive coordinators from within as opposed to those which bring in a new guy from outside, because we've seen way more positive improvements from the former than we have from the latter. (It also might be subject to some bias; teams might only promote from inside if they have an effective defense, or if they have supreme confidence in the new guy.) Although Jim Bates is coming in from outside the organization, he'll be answering to Raheem Morris, who was already in the organization. So we might be overestimating the impact of the switch there.
As for those old guys, well, they might not have been playing all that well. Even if losing them is a detriment, there should be a positive impact from the improvements made by players like DE Gaines Adams, Ruud, and CB Aqib Talib. So we're not expecting much of a slip-up or an improvement, one way or another.
