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Five Downs With Football Outsiders: Adam 'Pacman' Jones has been Cowboys' best cornerback
7:00 AM Fri, Nov 14, 2008 | Permalink | Yahoo! Buzz
Tim MacMahon E-mail News tips
Bill Barnwell, a contributing editor at footballoutsiders.com and one of the minds behind the must-read Pro Football Prospectus, will answer five Cowboys questions each week of the season using the FO data and methodologies. Here's the Week 10 edition:
1. Based on the available FO data, rank the Cowboys cornerbacks in order from best to worst this season.
Anthony Henry
31-of-45 (69 %), 392 yards, 8.7 ypa, 2 PBU, 0 INT, 2 pass interferences
Adam "Pacman" Jones
21-of-42 (50%), 216 yards, 5.1 ypa, 7 PBU, 0 INT, 1 pass interference
Mike Jenkins
22-of-33 (67%), 248 yards, 7.5 ypa, 2 PBU, 1 INT, 0 pass interference
Terence Newman
14-of-17 (82%), 175 yards, 10.3 ypa, 1 PBU, 0 INT, 0 pass interference
Orlando Scandrick
7-of-14 (50%), 85 yards, 6.1 ypa, 0 PBU, 0 INT, 0 pass interference
Alan Ball
2-of-3 (67%), 12 yards, 4.0 ypa, 0 PBU, 0 INT, 0 pass interference
The table above is compiled by the volunteers in our Game Charting Project, who break down every play of the NFL season to capture a myriad of things that aren't recorded in the NFL's official play-by-play. One of those things is to mark who is in coverage on a pass play. While marking who's in coverage is an inexact science without coaches' film, the charters are given specific instructions on what to look for. Note that the numbers above have plays where a defender was flagged for pass interference included as completions with yards added to the player's total.
Starting at the top, as much of a headache as he's been, we continue to see the Adam Jones that steps between the lines on Sunday as an elite corner. The opposition only completed 50% of passes to receivers when he was in coverage, and he allowed only 5.1 yards per attempt. He also had almost as many passes defensed (seven) as the rest of the team's corners combined (eight).
Second would be Mike Jenkins. Now, we're looking at pass coverage here. I'm well-aware of the infamous fake that Jenkins put on himself when he was trying to tackle Derrick Ward. Looking as his numbers in the passing game, Jenkins has been acceptable for a nickel corner. He's been pressed into service as the team's top corner at points, which he's not ready for. Although it was a bit of a fluke, he also has the team's only interception from the cornerback position.
I'll put Anthony Henry third. He's simply allowing too many yards to be a championship-caliber corner -- whether that's because he's allowing too much of a cushion to account for his quad or not, I can't say, but last year, he only allowed six yards per attempt, which was 11th-best in football.
Finally, there's Terence Newman, who returns from sports hernia surgery this week. While it's true that Newman often takes the other team's top receiver (he did so last year at a 50% rate, which was 10th in the league), and he also limits the number of throws that come at him, those metrics are simply unacceptable. Virtually every pass thrown in his direction has been complete, and while he was in coverage on the bomb to Santana Moss in the Commanders' game, he's allowed nine first downs and a touchdown on those 17 attempts, so it's not just one big play that's inflating his numbers.
I think Newman is playing better than those numbers indicate, but he certainly wasn't up to the caliber of the player he needs to be or is being paid like when he was in the lineup.
2. How bad did the Brad Johnson error, oops... era end up being?
There are so many different ways to express how bad Brad Johnson was. His DVOA was -55.9%. That's the worst in the league for any passer with more than 60 attempts. Tony Romo, on the other hand, had a DVOA of 29.6%.
That's a difference of 85.5%. In the 13 years that we have DVOA data for, no backup who's dropped back more than 80 times has ever even come close to being that much worse than the starter. The previous low was a difference of 75.9% for the 2001 Vikings, who replaced an injured Daunte Culpepper with Spurgeon Wynn, who threw six interceptions in 98 attempts and averaged 4.3 yards per attempt before being benched. Wynn was actually the third-stringer, as 29-year-old rookie Todd Bouman was the first guy off the bench and actually did a respectable job.
Second-worst would be Tommy Maddox when he filled in for Ben Roethlisberger during the Steelers' Super Bowl run in 2005.
Not coincidentally, both Wynn and Maddox never played again in the NFL. I suspect Johnson will be joining them.
3. Clinton Portis and Ladell Betts are both banged up, so there's a chance Shaun Alexander could be the Commanders' primary running back. How dramatic a drop-off would that be for the Washington running game?
It's hard to overstate how bad Shaun Alexander was in 2007. We had him as the second-least valuable running back in the league according to DYAR; by nary a single measure was he superior to backup Maurice Morris, who is no one's idea of a great player.
The biggest concern for Commanders fans with Portis out, honestly, will have to be the blocking game, where Portis is without peer. Mike Sellers is a decent pass blocker, but the Commanders are going to have to either dramatically limit their offensive playbook or hope that Alexander is up to handling DeMarcus Ware or Anthony Spencer/Greg Ellis when they come free.
4. Where is the Washington defense most vulnerable? What matchups most favor the Cowboys' offense?
I would think that Roy Williams and Terrell Owens should be able to take advantage of Fred Smoot on the outside, who's decent, but a step below Carlos Rogers. If Shawn Springs plays, that changes. I also think that you can beat Chris Horton deep with double-moves -- that will require good pass protection.
The Commanders are also only 19th in the league defending runs in the middle, which I think is probably the best place to attack them. Kedric Golston is the weaker of their two tackles, which seems like a good place for them to attack.
5. Is Jason Campbell a guy who doesn't screw things up or a primary reason the Commanders are winning?
I think Campbell's a very good quarterback. It seems weird when you consider that they had the infamous 700-page playbook last year, but Campbell's getting to do more this year than the screens and quick hitches that he threw last year. He's in a really good situation -- good receivers, good offensive line, great running back -- but he's succeeding. He's not just checking down, too; he's got a 16.6% DVOA, good for 12th in the league.
7:00 AM Fri, Nov 14, 2008 | Permalink | Yahoo! Buzz
Tim MacMahon E-mail News tips
Bill Barnwell, a contributing editor at footballoutsiders.com and one of the minds behind the must-read Pro Football Prospectus, will answer five Cowboys questions each week of the season using the FO data and methodologies. Here's the Week 10 edition:
1. Based on the available FO data, rank the Cowboys cornerbacks in order from best to worst this season.
Anthony Henry
31-of-45 (69 %), 392 yards, 8.7 ypa, 2 PBU, 0 INT, 2 pass interferences
Adam "Pacman" Jones
21-of-42 (50%), 216 yards, 5.1 ypa, 7 PBU, 0 INT, 1 pass interference
Mike Jenkins
22-of-33 (67%), 248 yards, 7.5 ypa, 2 PBU, 1 INT, 0 pass interference
Terence Newman
14-of-17 (82%), 175 yards, 10.3 ypa, 1 PBU, 0 INT, 0 pass interference
Orlando Scandrick
7-of-14 (50%), 85 yards, 6.1 ypa, 0 PBU, 0 INT, 0 pass interference
Alan Ball
2-of-3 (67%), 12 yards, 4.0 ypa, 0 PBU, 0 INT, 0 pass interference
The table above is compiled by the volunteers in our Game Charting Project, who break down every play of the NFL season to capture a myriad of things that aren't recorded in the NFL's official play-by-play. One of those things is to mark who is in coverage on a pass play. While marking who's in coverage is an inexact science without coaches' film, the charters are given specific instructions on what to look for. Note that the numbers above have plays where a defender was flagged for pass interference included as completions with yards added to the player's total.
Starting at the top, as much of a headache as he's been, we continue to see the Adam Jones that steps between the lines on Sunday as an elite corner. The opposition only completed 50% of passes to receivers when he was in coverage, and he allowed only 5.1 yards per attempt. He also had almost as many passes defensed (seven) as the rest of the team's corners combined (eight).
Second would be Mike Jenkins. Now, we're looking at pass coverage here. I'm well-aware of the infamous fake that Jenkins put on himself when he was trying to tackle Derrick Ward. Looking as his numbers in the passing game, Jenkins has been acceptable for a nickel corner. He's been pressed into service as the team's top corner at points, which he's not ready for. Although it was a bit of a fluke, he also has the team's only interception from the cornerback position.
I'll put Anthony Henry third. He's simply allowing too many yards to be a championship-caliber corner -- whether that's because he's allowing too much of a cushion to account for his quad or not, I can't say, but last year, he only allowed six yards per attempt, which was 11th-best in football.
Finally, there's Terence Newman, who returns from sports hernia surgery this week. While it's true that Newman often takes the other team's top receiver (he did so last year at a 50% rate, which was 10th in the league), and he also limits the number of throws that come at him, those metrics are simply unacceptable. Virtually every pass thrown in his direction has been complete, and while he was in coverage on the bomb to Santana Moss in the Commanders' game, he's allowed nine first downs and a touchdown on those 17 attempts, so it's not just one big play that's inflating his numbers.
I think Newman is playing better than those numbers indicate, but he certainly wasn't up to the caliber of the player he needs to be or is being paid like when he was in the lineup.
2. How bad did the Brad Johnson error, oops... era end up being?
There are so many different ways to express how bad Brad Johnson was. His DVOA was -55.9%. That's the worst in the league for any passer with more than 60 attempts. Tony Romo, on the other hand, had a DVOA of 29.6%.
That's a difference of 85.5%. In the 13 years that we have DVOA data for, no backup who's dropped back more than 80 times has ever even come close to being that much worse than the starter. The previous low was a difference of 75.9% for the 2001 Vikings, who replaced an injured Daunte Culpepper with Spurgeon Wynn, who threw six interceptions in 98 attempts and averaged 4.3 yards per attempt before being benched. Wynn was actually the third-stringer, as 29-year-old rookie Todd Bouman was the first guy off the bench and actually did a respectable job.
Second-worst would be Tommy Maddox when he filled in for Ben Roethlisberger during the Steelers' Super Bowl run in 2005.
Not coincidentally, both Wynn and Maddox never played again in the NFL. I suspect Johnson will be joining them.
3. Clinton Portis and Ladell Betts are both banged up, so there's a chance Shaun Alexander could be the Commanders' primary running back. How dramatic a drop-off would that be for the Washington running game?
It's hard to overstate how bad Shaun Alexander was in 2007. We had him as the second-least valuable running back in the league according to DYAR; by nary a single measure was he superior to backup Maurice Morris, who is no one's idea of a great player.
The biggest concern for Commanders fans with Portis out, honestly, will have to be the blocking game, where Portis is without peer. Mike Sellers is a decent pass blocker, but the Commanders are going to have to either dramatically limit their offensive playbook or hope that Alexander is up to handling DeMarcus Ware or Anthony Spencer/Greg Ellis when they come free.
4. Where is the Washington defense most vulnerable? What matchups most favor the Cowboys' offense?
I would think that Roy Williams and Terrell Owens should be able to take advantage of Fred Smoot on the outside, who's decent, but a step below Carlos Rogers. If Shawn Springs plays, that changes. I also think that you can beat Chris Horton deep with double-moves -- that will require good pass protection.
The Commanders are also only 19th in the league defending runs in the middle, which I think is probably the best place to attack them. Kedric Golston is the weaker of their two tackles, which seems like a good place for them to attack.
5. Is Jason Campbell a guy who doesn't screw things up or a primary reason the Commanders are winning?
I think Campbell's a very good quarterback. It seems weird when you consider that they had the infamous 700-page playbook last year, but Campbell's getting to do more this year than the screens and quick hitches that he threw last year. He's in a really good situation -- good receivers, good offensive line, great running back -- but he's succeeding. He's not just checking down, too; he's got a 16.6% DVOA, good for 12th in the league.
