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11:46 AM CDT on Tuesday, August 26, 2008
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The AFC has been the superior conference this decade, winning six of the eight Super Bowls.
You can argue all day long that there are better offenses in the AFC, better defenses, better coaching, better quarterbacking, better this and better that. But there is a more logical explanation for that dominance. AFC teams don't beat themselves. NFC teams do.
The 2008 New York Giants became the first team in 20 years to win a Super Bowl with a negative turnover ratio. The Giants forced 25 turnovers on defense but committed 34 on offense for a minus-9.
The last team to win the Super Bowl with a negative turnover ratio was the Washington Commanders in 1987 at a minus-16. Teams that win championships with a negative turnover ratio are clearly the exception rather than the rule.
Look at the bigger picture. Of the 12 teams that qualified for the playoffs last season, only two committed more turnovers than they created – the Giants and the Commanders (minus-5).
The four teams that took the best care of the football in the NFC all won division titles: Tampa Bay (plus-15), Seattle (plus-10), Dallas (plus-5) and Green Bay (plus-4). The three best teams in the AFC – 16-0 New England, 13-3 Indianapolis and 11-5 San Diego – were the three teams in the NFL that took the best care of the football. The Chargers were a plus-24, the Colts a plus-18 and the Patriots a plus-16.
The Patriots, in fact, are an NFL-best plus-54 for the 2000 decade. Little wonder they have won three Super Bowls and appeared in a fourth. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers also are a plus-54, and they also have won a Super Bowl this decade. So have the Indianapolis Colts, who rank third at a plus-41.
There are 16 teams in the NFL in the plus column in the turnover ratio this decade and 11 of them are in the AFC.
Six of the top seven teams are in the AFC and eight of the top 10. AFC teams take better care of the football, so the AFC teams stand the better chance of winning championships each season.
Here's the breakdown of NFL teams this decade listing the plus/minus turnover ratio, their number of victories plus the number of playoff berths:
Clink link and scroll to see chart: http://www.***BANNED-URL***/sharedcontent/dws/spt/stories/082708dnspoinsidethenfl.1449ffce.html
The 16 teams with a positive turnover ratio this decade have combined for 62 playoff spots. The 16 teams with a negative turnover ratio have combined for 34 playoff spots. Take care of the football from September through December and you give yourself a chance in January.
Now, around the league, one more week of exhibitions and we will have mercifully completed yet another NFL preseason. The starters play little and the marquee names play even less. The name players might become even more scarce next summer.
Pro Bowl pass rushers Osi Umenyiora (Giants) and Shawne Merriman (San Diego) both suffered potential season-ending injuries in exhibition games and Cincinnati quarterback Carson Palmer suffered a broken nose. Two more Pro Bowlers, tackle Orlando Pace and wide receiver Chad Johnson, banged up their shoulders and Browns Pro Bowl quarterback Derek Anderson suffered a concussion. Why risk playing any of your stars in August?
Gone but not forgotten
The NFL shut down its NFL Europe operation in 2007 but its legacy lives on. J.T. O'Sullivan is one of four NFL Europe alums who project as opening-day NFL starters at quarterback in 2008, joining Jake Delhomme (Carolina), Jon Kitna (Detroit) and Kurt Warner (Arizona).
O'Sullivan captured the starting position in summer competition with Alex Smith, the first overall selection of the 2005 NFL draft. O'Sullivan is one year removed from an NFL Europe passing championship.
Kitna also won the European passing title, but only Delhomme won the NFL Europe championship game. Both Brad Johnson and Warner lost those title games overseas. Johnson, Delhomme and Warner have since taken NFL teams to the Super Bowl.
The NFL dumped NFL Europe after the 2007 season because it was a money drain. There wasn't enough return on the investment. It was meant to be a developmental league, but too many teams were using it merely as a dumping ground for non-prospects, sending players to Europe strictly for the summer NFL training camp roster exemptions.
The one position that did benefit was quarterback, though. More than any other position, a quarterback needs live action to accelerate his development. He needs to feel a pass rush and see tight, physical pass coverage to determine if he has what it takes to play quarterback in the NFL.
With NFL Europe gone, there is no such developmental system in place now for young quarterbacks.
"They need game experience and I think they'll get that at some point," Dolphins general manager Jeff Ireland said. "But not having NFL Europe is difficult. You just have to do what you can."
Here's a look at five quarterbacks who excelled in Europe before getting the chance to excel in the NFL. Rating/Rank lists the passer efficiency rating and the league rank, followed by the quarterback's current NFL team.
Click link and scroll to see chart: http://www.***BANNED-URL***/sharedcontent/dws/spt/stories/082708dnspoinsidethenfl.1449ffce.html
America's Game
I received an advance copy of NFL Films' latest installment of its Emmy Award-winning America's Game series, the championship season of the 2007 New York Giants. NFL Films wheeled out James Gandolfini of Sopranos fame to serve as the narrator and, like the previous 41 segments of the series, there were three primary speakers (Tom Coughlin, Eli Manning and Michael Strahan).
The latest installment documents the evolution of a coach and a quarterback, showing how Coughlin softened up and Manning toughened up on the way to a championship. The Giants rallied from an 0-2 start and reeled off 11 consecutive road victories on the way to the title.
I've seen all 42 of the installments now and this one ranks in the top 10. It offered some superb insights to the New York season plus some interesting sidelights.
The most intriguing sidelight locally was the pre-game talk by Coughlin before the Giants-Cowboys playoff game. He told his team that Cowboys owner Jerry Jones put two tickets to the NFC championship game on the stool of each player.
"They've already won this game," said Manning, reflecting on Coughlin's words. "Why do we need to show up?"
After the Giants upset the Cowboys 21-17, Coughlin told his team: "I don't want anybody talking about this in the media – but Jerry just sent the tickets over, so we're all set."
For the record, Jones didn't leave any tickets on player stools. Label this one a motivational ploy.
Doomsday in Dallas
Speaking of that NFC playoff game between the Giants and Cowboys, New York GM Jerry Reese feels Manning took a huge step as a quarterback that day.
The Cowboys pieced together a 20-play, 90-yard touchdown drive that covered 10:28 of the second quarter and gave Dallas a 14-7 lead. The Giants got the ball back with only 53 seconds left in the half but were not in any mood to take a knee on offense. Manning drove the Giants 71 yards on seven plays for the game-tying touchdown.
"They just had a 10-minute drive, a devastating drive," Reese said. "They threw that big running back [Marion Barber] at us and we couldn't stop them.
"But instead of sitting on it and going in at half trying to regroup, Eli competed. He made a throw to Kevin Boss (19-yarder) that was spectacular. He made throw to Steve Smith (11 yards), another to Toomer (four-yard TD) … He made some big boy throws, unbelievable. That's what put us in the Super Bowl."
From the e-mail bag
This one from Robert Powell: After Gene Upshaw's passing, I got to wondering about the best guard/tackle combos in NFL history. Obviously you'd have to put Upshaw/Shell up there with Gregg/Kramer of the 1960s Packers. Any thoughts?
Here's what I came up with:
1. LT Art Shell, LG Gene Upshaw, Oakland 1970s: One of two Hall of Fame tandems in NFL history, they played alongside each other for 14 years and combined for 15 Pro Bowl appearances.
2. RT Forrest Gregg, RG Jerry Kramer, Green Bay 1960s: Gregg is a Hall of Famer and Kramer was selected the only guard to the NFL's 50th anniversary team. They played eight seasons together and won four NFL championships.
3. LT Jim Tyrer, LG Ed Budde, Kansas City 1960s: Neither is in Canton, but both were selected to the all-time All-AFL team. They combined for 16 appearances in the AFL All-Star Game and Pro Bowl.
4. LT Joe Jacoby, LG Russ Grimm, Washington 1980s: Both have been Hall of Fame finalists but neither is in Canton. Both lined up on both the left and rights sides during their careers and went to a combined eight Pro Bowls.
5. RT Mike McCormack, RG Gene Hickerson, Cleveland 1960s: The other Hall of Fame tandem, they played alongside each other only three years and helped Jim Brown win two rushing titles.
6. LT Bob Vogel, LG Jim Parker, Baltimore, 1960s: Another brief pairing, this tandem played together only three seasons but went to the Pro Bowl together twice. Parker is in the Hall of Fame and Vogel played in five Pro Bowls.
7. RT Ron Yary, RG Ed White, Minnesota, 1970s: Also played together only three seasons, but both were Pro Bowl selections all three years. Yary is in Canton and White went to four Pro Bowls (also with San Diego in 1980).
8. LT Charlie Cowan, LG Tom Mack, LA Rams, 1970s: Played together seven years and the Rams hit double figures in victories in four of them. Mack is in the Hall of Fame and Cowan went to three Pro Bowls.
9. RT Norm Evans, RG Larry Little, Miami, 1970s: Played together seven seasons and appeared in three consecutive Super Bowls, winning two. Little is in the Hall of Fame and Evans went to a pair of Pro Bowls.
10. RT Erik Williams, RG Larry Allen, Dallas, 1990s: Another three-year pairing, they helped the Cowboys win an NFL title in 1995. Allen was an all-decade selection for the 1990s. Williams' career was derailed by a knee injury suffered in a car wreck.
Two-minute drill
■ The NFL did not have a single team that went unbeaten in the 2007 preseason. Only the Detroit Lions have a shot to finish unbeaten this preseason. The Lions are 3-0 and visit the Buffalo Bills on Thursday night.
■ The Jacksonville Jaguars brought in two key pieces this season to supplement their wide receiving corps. Jerry Porter gives the Jaguars size on the flank and Troy Williamson speed. Jacksonville signed the 6-2, 220-pound Porter in free agency and traded for Williamson, who never lived up to expectations as the seventh pick of the 2005 draft by the Minnesota Vikings. The Jaguars feel they have a solid receiving base with former first-round draft picks Reggie Williams and Matt Jones and versatile Dennis Northcutt. Williamson with his 4.29 speed is the wild card. The Jaguars hope he can flourish in a less pressure-packed environment. "We're not asking him to be the seventh pick of a draft," Jaguars GM James Harris said. "We're just asking him to be productive."
■ There are Dallas thumbprints being placed on the Miami Dolphins – those of Bill Parcells, GM Jeff Ireland and coach Tony Sparano. The days of the finesse Dolphins who relied on speed are over. "We're bigger, stronger and hopefully a little more disciplined," Sparano said.
■ The Indianapolis Colts love what TE Dallas Clark brings to the table in the passing game. They've been pleasantly surprised this summer by what former practice squad player Gijon Robinson has brought to the table in the running game. "He's is the best blocking tight end we've had the whole time I've been here," Colts coach Tony Dungy said.
Final thought
The New York Giants rode the NFL's most violent pass rush to a Super Bowl championship a year ago. The Giants led the NFL with 53 sacks, and even when they didn't tackle the quarterback, they knocked him around. Ask Tom Brady about the beating he took in the Super Bowl. But that pass rush will be a little less violent in 2008. Exactly half those sacks are already gone from a year ago. End Michael Strahan (nine sacks) retired, linebackers Kawika Mitchell (3½) and Reggie Torbor (one) left in free agency and now end Osi Umenyiora (13) has been lost for the season with a knee injury.
The AFC has been the superior conference this decade, winning six of the eight Super Bowls.
You can argue all day long that there are better offenses in the AFC, better defenses, better coaching, better quarterbacking, better this and better that. But there is a more logical explanation for that dominance. AFC teams don't beat themselves. NFC teams do.
The 2008 New York Giants became the first team in 20 years to win a Super Bowl with a negative turnover ratio. The Giants forced 25 turnovers on defense but committed 34 on offense for a minus-9.
The last team to win the Super Bowl with a negative turnover ratio was the Washington Commanders in 1987 at a minus-16. Teams that win championships with a negative turnover ratio are clearly the exception rather than the rule.
Look at the bigger picture. Of the 12 teams that qualified for the playoffs last season, only two committed more turnovers than they created – the Giants and the Commanders (minus-5).
The four teams that took the best care of the football in the NFC all won division titles: Tampa Bay (plus-15), Seattle (plus-10), Dallas (plus-5) and Green Bay (plus-4). The three best teams in the AFC – 16-0 New England, 13-3 Indianapolis and 11-5 San Diego – were the three teams in the NFL that took the best care of the football. The Chargers were a plus-24, the Colts a plus-18 and the Patriots a plus-16.
The Patriots, in fact, are an NFL-best plus-54 for the 2000 decade. Little wonder they have won three Super Bowls and appeared in a fourth. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers also are a plus-54, and they also have won a Super Bowl this decade. So have the Indianapolis Colts, who rank third at a plus-41.
There are 16 teams in the NFL in the plus column in the turnover ratio this decade and 11 of them are in the AFC.
Six of the top seven teams are in the AFC and eight of the top 10. AFC teams take better care of the football, so the AFC teams stand the better chance of winning championships each season.
Here's the breakdown of NFL teams this decade listing the plus/minus turnover ratio, their number of victories plus the number of playoff berths:
Clink link and scroll to see chart: http://www.***BANNED-URL***/sharedcontent/dws/spt/stories/082708dnspoinsidethenfl.1449ffce.html
The 16 teams with a positive turnover ratio this decade have combined for 62 playoff spots. The 16 teams with a negative turnover ratio have combined for 34 playoff spots. Take care of the football from September through December and you give yourself a chance in January.
Now, around the league, one more week of exhibitions and we will have mercifully completed yet another NFL preseason. The starters play little and the marquee names play even less. The name players might become even more scarce next summer.
Pro Bowl pass rushers Osi Umenyiora (Giants) and Shawne Merriman (San Diego) both suffered potential season-ending injuries in exhibition games and Cincinnati quarterback Carson Palmer suffered a broken nose. Two more Pro Bowlers, tackle Orlando Pace and wide receiver Chad Johnson, banged up their shoulders and Browns Pro Bowl quarterback Derek Anderson suffered a concussion. Why risk playing any of your stars in August?
Gone but not forgotten
The NFL shut down its NFL Europe operation in 2007 but its legacy lives on. J.T. O'Sullivan is one of four NFL Europe alums who project as opening-day NFL starters at quarterback in 2008, joining Jake Delhomme (Carolina), Jon Kitna (Detroit) and Kurt Warner (Arizona).
O'Sullivan captured the starting position in summer competition with Alex Smith, the first overall selection of the 2005 NFL draft. O'Sullivan is one year removed from an NFL Europe passing championship.
Kitna also won the European passing title, but only Delhomme won the NFL Europe championship game. Both Brad Johnson and Warner lost those title games overseas. Johnson, Delhomme and Warner have since taken NFL teams to the Super Bowl.
The NFL dumped NFL Europe after the 2007 season because it was a money drain. There wasn't enough return on the investment. It was meant to be a developmental league, but too many teams were using it merely as a dumping ground for non-prospects, sending players to Europe strictly for the summer NFL training camp roster exemptions.
The one position that did benefit was quarterback, though. More than any other position, a quarterback needs live action to accelerate his development. He needs to feel a pass rush and see tight, physical pass coverage to determine if he has what it takes to play quarterback in the NFL.
With NFL Europe gone, there is no such developmental system in place now for young quarterbacks.
"They need game experience and I think they'll get that at some point," Dolphins general manager Jeff Ireland said. "But not having NFL Europe is difficult. You just have to do what you can."
Here's a look at five quarterbacks who excelled in Europe before getting the chance to excel in the NFL. Rating/Rank lists the passer efficiency rating and the league rank, followed by the quarterback's current NFL team.
Click link and scroll to see chart: http://www.***BANNED-URL***/sharedcontent/dws/spt/stories/082708dnspoinsidethenfl.1449ffce.html
America's Game
I received an advance copy of NFL Films' latest installment of its Emmy Award-winning America's Game series, the championship season of the 2007 New York Giants. NFL Films wheeled out James Gandolfini of Sopranos fame to serve as the narrator and, like the previous 41 segments of the series, there were three primary speakers (Tom Coughlin, Eli Manning and Michael Strahan).
The latest installment documents the evolution of a coach and a quarterback, showing how Coughlin softened up and Manning toughened up on the way to a championship. The Giants rallied from an 0-2 start and reeled off 11 consecutive road victories on the way to the title.
I've seen all 42 of the installments now and this one ranks in the top 10. It offered some superb insights to the New York season plus some interesting sidelights.
The most intriguing sidelight locally was the pre-game talk by Coughlin before the Giants-Cowboys playoff game. He told his team that Cowboys owner Jerry Jones put two tickets to the NFC championship game on the stool of each player.
"They've already won this game," said Manning, reflecting on Coughlin's words. "Why do we need to show up?"
After the Giants upset the Cowboys 21-17, Coughlin told his team: "I don't want anybody talking about this in the media – but Jerry just sent the tickets over, so we're all set."
For the record, Jones didn't leave any tickets on player stools. Label this one a motivational ploy.
Doomsday in Dallas
Speaking of that NFC playoff game between the Giants and Cowboys, New York GM Jerry Reese feels Manning took a huge step as a quarterback that day.
The Cowboys pieced together a 20-play, 90-yard touchdown drive that covered 10:28 of the second quarter and gave Dallas a 14-7 lead. The Giants got the ball back with only 53 seconds left in the half but were not in any mood to take a knee on offense. Manning drove the Giants 71 yards on seven plays for the game-tying touchdown.
"They just had a 10-minute drive, a devastating drive," Reese said. "They threw that big running back [Marion Barber] at us and we couldn't stop them.
"But instead of sitting on it and going in at half trying to regroup, Eli competed. He made a throw to Kevin Boss (19-yarder) that was spectacular. He made throw to Steve Smith (11 yards), another to Toomer (four-yard TD) … He made some big boy throws, unbelievable. That's what put us in the Super Bowl."
From the e-mail bag
This one from Robert Powell: After Gene Upshaw's passing, I got to wondering about the best guard/tackle combos in NFL history. Obviously you'd have to put Upshaw/Shell up there with Gregg/Kramer of the 1960s Packers. Any thoughts?
Here's what I came up with:
1. LT Art Shell, LG Gene Upshaw, Oakland 1970s: One of two Hall of Fame tandems in NFL history, they played alongside each other for 14 years and combined for 15 Pro Bowl appearances.
2. RT Forrest Gregg, RG Jerry Kramer, Green Bay 1960s: Gregg is a Hall of Famer and Kramer was selected the only guard to the NFL's 50th anniversary team. They played eight seasons together and won four NFL championships.
3. LT Jim Tyrer, LG Ed Budde, Kansas City 1960s: Neither is in Canton, but both were selected to the all-time All-AFL team. They combined for 16 appearances in the AFL All-Star Game and Pro Bowl.
4. LT Joe Jacoby, LG Russ Grimm, Washington 1980s: Both have been Hall of Fame finalists but neither is in Canton. Both lined up on both the left and rights sides during their careers and went to a combined eight Pro Bowls.
5. RT Mike McCormack, RG Gene Hickerson, Cleveland 1960s: The other Hall of Fame tandem, they played alongside each other only three years and helped Jim Brown win two rushing titles.
6. LT Bob Vogel, LG Jim Parker, Baltimore, 1960s: Another brief pairing, this tandem played together only three seasons but went to the Pro Bowl together twice. Parker is in the Hall of Fame and Vogel played in five Pro Bowls.
7. RT Ron Yary, RG Ed White, Minnesota, 1970s: Also played together only three seasons, but both were Pro Bowl selections all three years. Yary is in Canton and White went to four Pro Bowls (also with San Diego in 1980).
8. LT Charlie Cowan, LG Tom Mack, LA Rams, 1970s: Played together seven years and the Rams hit double figures in victories in four of them. Mack is in the Hall of Fame and Cowan went to three Pro Bowls.
9. RT Norm Evans, RG Larry Little, Miami, 1970s: Played together seven seasons and appeared in three consecutive Super Bowls, winning two. Little is in the Hall of Fame and Evans went to a pair of Pro Bowls.
10. RT Erik Williams, RG Larry Allen, Dallas, 1990s: Another three-year pairing, they helped the Cowboys win an NFL title in 1995. Allen was an all-decade selection for the 1990s. Williams' career was derailed by a knee injury suffered in a car wreck.
Two-minute drill
■ The NFL did not have a single team that went unbeaten in the 2007 preseason. Only the Detroit Lions have a shot to finish unbeaten this preseason. The Lions are 3-0 and visit the Buffalo Bills on Thursday night.
■ The Jacksonville Jaguars brought in two key pieces this season to supplement their wide receiving corps. Jerry Porter gives the Jaguars size on the flank and Troy Williamson speed. Jacksonville signed the 6-2, 220-pound Porter in free agency and traded for Williamson, who never lived up to expectations as the seventh pick of the 2005 draft by the Minnesota Vikings. The Jaguars feel they have a solid receiving base with former first-round draft picks Reggie Williams and Matt Jones and versatile Dennis Northcutt. Williamson with his 4.29 speed is the wild card. The Jaguars hope he can flourish in a less pressure-packed environment. "We're not asking him to be the seventh pick of a draft," Jaguars GM James Harris said. "We're just asking him to be productive."
■ There are Dallas thumbprints being placed on the Miami Dolphins – those of Bill Parcells, GM Jeff Ireland and coach Tony Sparano. The days of the finesse Dolphins who relied on speed are over. "We're bigger, stronger and hopefully a little more disciplined," Sparano said.
■ The Indianapolis Colts love what TE Dallas Clark brings to the table in the passing game. They've been pleasantly surprised this summer by what former practice squad player Gijon Robinson has brought to the table in the running game. "He's is the best blocking tight end we've had the whole time I've been here," Colts coach Tony Dungy said.
Final thought
The New York Giants rode the NFL's most violent pass rush to a Super Bowl championship a year ago. The Giants led the NFL with 53 sacks, and even when they didn't tackle the quarterback, they knocked him around. Ask Tom Brady about the beating he took in the Super Bowl. But that pass rush will be a little less violent in 2008. Exactly half those sacks are already gone from a year ago. End Michael Strahan (nine sacks) retired, linebackers Kawika Mitchell (3½) and Reggie Torbor (one) left in free agency and now end Osi Umenyiora (13) has been lost for the season with a knee injury.
