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12:17 PM CDT on Tuesday, August 5, 2008
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Middle linebacker Patrick Willis of the San Francisco 49ers was the NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year in 2007.
If you trust his statistics, he should have been the NFL's Defensive Player of the Year as well. Maybe even the NFL Defensive Player of the Decade.
Willis was credited with 226 tackles by the 49ers – a staggering 42 more than the league's next most prolific tackler, Ray Lewis of the Baltimore Ravens.
Willis collected 117 more tackles than the starting NFC middle linebacker in the Pro Bowl (Lofa Tatupu, Seattle Seahawks) and 99 more than the AFC starter (Demeco Ryans, Houston Texans). Was Willis that much more active, that much more proficient than any other defensive player in the NFL?
But I don't trust the statistics – not tackle stats, anyway.
Each NFL team employs a stat crew for its home games. That crew's final statistics are deemed official by the league office: yardage for rushing, passing, receiving and various kick returns plus field goal and punting distances, sacks, interceptions, touchdowns ...
But 28 of the 32 NFL teams do not acknowledge the press box tackle stats as official. On the Monday following games, NFL defensive coaching staffs break down the films on their own and award a new set of tackle numbers. Those are listed by each team as its "official" tackle count.
Willis was credited with 174 tackles by NFL stat crews in 2007. Upon further review, the San Francisco coaches gave him credit for 52 more tackles, bumping his "official" count to 226.
How is it possible for stat crews league-wide to miss 52 tackles by Willis? That's a 23 percent increase in his tackle count. That's like the New England offensive staff studying weekly game tapes and uncovering 1,400 passing yards that stat crews missed in Tom Brady's 2007 season.
New England finished fourth in the NFL in defense and was one of only two teams that did not credit a player with 100 tackles. Miami was the other. Indianapolis finished one rung ahead of the Patriots on defense at third – but had a league-high five players with 100-plus tackles.
The Indy defense was on the field for 980 snaps last season. But there were no tackles on 199 of those plays because they were either incomplete passes, interceptions or offensive touchdowns.
That left 781 defensive snaps that involved a tackle – and the Colts' coaching staff awarded a league-high 1,416 tackles. That's an average of 1.81 tackles per play. The Indianapolis staff awarded 891 "solo" tackles in those 781 plays. Figure that one out.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who finished second in the NFL in defense, were even more generous. Their coaches awarded 1,385 tackles in 755 plays, an average of 1.83 tackles per play. The 49ers averaged 1.63 tackles per play.
I surveyed a handful of NFL head coaches a few years back, asking them what they considered a legitimate tackle average. The consensus was 1.44 tackles per play. I still consider that a bit high. I'm of the belief 1.3 tackles per play is about right. Nonetheless, 15 teams were at or below the 1.44 figure in 2007.
The four teams that count the press-box tackle stats as official are Houston, Miami, Oakland and Seattle. All finished in the league's bottom six in tackles per play. Ryan's Houston defense averaged 1.23 tackles per play, and Tatupu's Seattle defense averaged 1.13.
The first time I put together a league-wide tackle chart in 1992, there were three teams that averaged better than two tackles per play. That was ridiculous, not to mention impossible. So there has been slight improvement from one decade to the next.
Here's my solution: The NFL office should hire a retired defensive coach, bring him to New York on Sunday and give him three days to break down the tape for all 16 games. Let him credit all the tackles for all the games. One set of eyes would foster a league-wide consistency. It would also eliminate any and all bias – and padding – by stat crews and or coaching staffs.
I doubt you'd see any more 200-tackle seasons. And I'd start accepting tackle statistics as legit.
Here's the NFL tackle chart for 2007. The first column is the number of defensive snaps by a team. Now subtract the non-tackle plays (incompletions, interceptions and offensive touchdowns) in the second column, producing the number of actual tackle plays (third column). Now divide the number of credited tackles (fourth column) by the number of actual tackle plays (third column). That produces an average number of tackles per play by a team (fifth column).
http://i5.***BLOCKED***/albums/y164/nbr1diva/Cowboys/tackles.gif
OK, off the soapbox now and on to the 2008 season. I'm almost two weeks into my training camp tour. I've visited the Commanders, Eagles, Giants, Browns and Bengals thus far, plus a stop in Canton last weekend for the Hall of Fame inductions.
There were no Cowboys enshrined, but it was a big day for Texas nonetheless. With the inductions of cornerbacks Darrell Green (Houston) and Emmitt Thomas (Angleton), Texas has leapfrogged Pennsylvania as the state that has produced the most Hall of Famers. Texas now has 27 and Pennsylvania 26. Ohio is next with 21, followed by California with 16.
Pet peeve
Speaking of Thomas, Hall of Fame induction emcee Chris Berman and TV commentator Al Michaels both emphasized how Art Monk had to wait so long for his induction – eight years. Seven times he was a finalist before he was elected to the Class of 2008. But the two men didn't dwell on the 29-year wait by Monk's classmate, Emmitt Thomas. His 25-year window of eligibility came and went without the Hall of Fame selection committee ever discussing his candidacy. He had to wait another four years before the seniors' committee finally plucked him from the abyss and presented him for nomination. Thomas became a first-ballot selection – but it took him 29 years to reach his first ballot. Twenty-nine years is a long wait, not eight. Thomas is every bit the Hall of Famer Art Monk is. No more, no less.
Last year, when Michael Irvin was selected for the Class of 2007, he stood at the podium the day before the Super Bowl and talked about his three-year "wait" for enshrinement. He was a finalist each of those three years. Sitting in the chair right next to him on the stage was 1970s all-decade tight end Charlie Sanders, who waited 30 years to become a first-time finalist. Thirty years is a long wait, not three. Sanders was every bit the Hall of Famer Irvin is. No more, no less.
Canton no-shows
When Falcons owner Arthur Blank and president Rich McKay needed football life jackets last December, Emmitt Thomas agreed to coach their sinking franchise on an interim basis, steering Atlanta through the final three games of a very difficult season. Thomas remains with the Falcons this season as the assistant head coach. He was inducted into the Hall of Fame last weekend – but neither Blank nor McKay traveled to Canton for his enshrinement. That's embarrassing. Loyal employee that he is, Thomas deserved better support from his employers.
Class of 2009
Players appearing on the Hall of Fame ballot for the first time in 2009 are defensive end Bruce Smith, defensive tackle John Randle, defensive back Rod Woodson and tight end Shannon Sharpe. Smith is the NFL's all-time leading sacker and Woodson was selected to the league's 75th anniversary team in 1994. They loom as the favorites for induction next summer.
If the Super Bowl were played tomorrow
Look for a resurrection by the New Orleans Saints in 2008. They were one game away in 2006, then forgot how to compete in 2007. The schedule is favorable in 2008 with games against the NFC North and AFC West, so don't be surprised if the Saints sneak in. Keep an eye on the AFC South this fall. All four teams are contenders. But the division is still Peyton's Place. So let's go with Colts-Saints this week.
Tim Tebow Derby
With a Heisman Trophy already in his trophy case, it's a logical assumption that Florida quarterback Tim Tebow may skip his senior season in 2009 to enter the NFL draft next April. The NFL loves franchise quarterbacks, and it would love a prospect like Tebow. At 6-3, 232 pounds, he's as dangerous with his legs as with his left arm. He rushed for 23 touchdowns last season and passed for 32. Atlanta and Miami face the biggest rebuilding chores this fall, so pencil the Falcons and Dolphins in as candidates for the first overall pick in 2009. But both teams drafted young quarterbacks in 2008 – Matt Ryan by the Falcons and Chad Henne by the Dolphins. Stay tuned.
Book review
I received an advance copy of Jeff Pearlman's book Boys Will Be Boys, detailing "the glory days and party nights of the Dallas Cowboys destiny." I've been a fan of Pearlman since reading his biography on Barry Bonds, Love Me, Hate Me. He's a gifted storyteller. Pearlman doesn't pull any punches in documenting the rise and fall of the 1990s Cowboys. What they did on the field was admirable, but what they did off the field was at times despicable. This is a tale of self-destruction – and not just publicly at the top where Jerry Jones and Jimmy Johnson could no longer co-exist. This team self-destructed in the locker room as well. Pearlman dug deep in his research, speaking with the likes of Rob Awalt, Cory Fleming, Derrick Lassic and Clayton Holmes in addition to franchise A-listers Michael Irvin, Jay Novacek, Mark Stepnoski and Darren Woodson in printing what went right and wrong during the dynasty. More went wrong than most Cowboys fans would care to know. It's a real page-turner.
NFC East watch
I find it interesting that the Cowboys were the one team in the NFC East in dire need of a young wide receiver – yet they were the only team in the division that did not address the position with a premium draft pick (first three rounds) in April. The Commanders took both Devin Thomas (Michigan State) and Malcolm Kelly (Oklahoma) in the second round, as did the Eagles DeSean Jackson (California). The Giants took Mario Manningham (Michigan) in the third round. Of the four, I would expect Kelly to have the quickest and biggest impact as a receiver in 2008. He's 6-4 and complements smurfs Santana Moss and Antwaan Randle El on Washington's flank. Kelly will be a factor in the red zone.
Travel note
I spend a lot of time driving each summer during my training camp tour. On my first trip, I flew into Dulles Airport to start the tour with the Commanders. Then I drove to Bethlehem, Pa., to visit the Eagles and on to Albany, N.Y., to visit the Giants. Some 600 miles later, I've reached this conclusion – satellite radio is the greatest invention for cars since cruise control.
Two-minute drill
■ Kudos to the Carolina Panthers for their handling of the Steve Smith situation internally. After Smith broke the nose of cornerback Ken Lucas in a fight on the practice field, the Panthers suspended him for the first two games of the regular season. It was the right thing to do – although it won't look like the right thing in the season opener when the Panthers travel to San Diego. The Panthers would have a tough time beating the Chargers with Smith. Without their Pro Bowl wide receiver, it will be darn near impossible.
■ The three best teams in the NFC could all be in the NFC East: Dallas, New York and Philadelphia. But the top seed in the NFC will probably come elsewhere because the teams in the East are going to beat each other up this fall. The NFC East champ may wind up with an 11-5 record.
■ For the third consecutive summer, the Eagles have a player on the roster who has changed his name. In 2006, cornerback Will Peterson changed his to William James. In 2007, offensive tackle Tra Thomas changed his to William Thomas, and this summer, defensive end Juqua Thomas changed his name to Juqua Parker. Thomas has since gone back to Tra.
■ With the departure of Michael Strahan, Justin Tuck steps in as the starting strong-side end of the New York Giants. He will continue to slide inside on passing downs, as he did last year, with linebacker Mathias Kiwanuka moving up to end and putting his hand on the ground in pass-rush situations.
Final thought
Memo to all Cowboys fans who wanted Dallas to trade up for Southern California wide receiver Mike Williams in the 2005 NFL draft: If you still want him, he's yours. And you can get him cheaply. He was sent packing by his third NFL team last week when the Tennessee Titans said good-bye. The Detroit Lions, who drafted him with the 10th overall pick in 2005, and the Oakland Raiders also showed him the door. Williams battled his weight throughout his brief career and wound up catching only 44 career passes. I received countless e-mails in the weeks leading up to the 2005 draft from Cowboys fans who envisioned Williams as the next Michael Irvin, imploring the Cowboys to trade up for him at any cost. Sometimes the best trades are the ones that aren't made.
• E-mail
Middle linebacker Patrick Willis of the San Francisco 49ers was the NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year in 2007.
If you trust his statistics, he should have been the NFL's Defensive Player of the Year as well. Maybe even the NFL Defensive Player of the Decade.
Willis was credited with 226 tackles by the 49ers – a staggering 42 more than the league's next most prolific tackler, Ray Lewis of the Baltimore Ravens.
Willis collected 117 more tackles than the starting NFC middle linebacker in the Pro Bowl (Lofa Tatupu, Seattle Seahawks) and 99 more than the AFC starter (Demeco Ryans, Houston Texans). Was Willis that much more active, that much more proficient than any other defensive player in the NFL?
But I don't trust the statistics – not tackle stats, anyway.
Each NFL team employs a stat crew for its home games. That crew's final statistics are deemed official by the league office: yardage for rushing, passing, receiving and various kick returns plus field goal and punting distances, sacks, interceptions, touchdowns ...
But 28 of the 32 NFL teams do not acknowledge the press box tackle stats as official. On the Monday following games, NFL defensive coaching staffs break down the films on their own and award a new set of tackle numbers. Those are listed by each team as its "official" tackle count.
Willis was credited with 174 tackles by NFL stat crews in 2007. Upon further review, the San Francisco coaches gave him credit for 52 more tackles, bumping his "official" count to 226.
How is it possible for stat crews league-wide to miss 52 tackles by Willis? That's a 23 percent increase in his tackle count. That's like the New England offensive staff studying weekly game tapes and uncovering 1,400 passing yards that stat crews missed in Tom Brady's 2007 season.
New England finished fourth in the NFL in defense and was one of only two teams that did not credit a player with 100 tackles. Miami was the other. Indianapolis finished one rung ahead of the Patriots on defense at third – but had a league-high five players with 100-plus tackles.
The Indy defense was on the field for 980 snaps last season. But there were no tackles on 199 of those plays because they were either incomplete passes, interceptions or offensive touchdowns.
That left 781 defensive snaps that involved a tackle – and the Colts' coaching staff awarded a league-high 1,416 tackles. That's an average of 1.81 tackles per play. The Indianapolis staff awarded 891 "solo" tackles in those 781 plays. Figure that one out.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who finished second in the NFL in defense, were even more generous. Their coaches awarded 1,385 tackles in 755 plays, an average of 1.83 tackles per play. The 49ers averaged 1.63 tackles per play.
I surveyed a handful of NFL head coaches a few years back, asking them what they considered a legitimate tackle average. The consensus was 1.44 tackles per play. I still consider that a bit high. I'm of the belief 1.3 tackles per play is about right. Nonetheless, 15 teams were at or below the 1.44 figure in 2007.
The four teams that count the press-box tackle stats as official are Houston, Miami, Oakland and Seattle. All finished in the league's bottom six in tackles per play. Ryan's Houston defense averaged 1.23 tackles per play, and Tatupu's Seattle defense averaged 1.13.
The first time I put together a league-wide tackle chart in 1992, there were three teams that averaged better than two tackles per play. That was ridiculous, not to mention impossible. So there has been slight improvement from one decade to the next.
Here's my solution: The NFL office should hire a retired defensive coach, bring him to New York on Sunday and give him three days to break down the tape for all 16 games. Let him credit all the tackles for all the games. One set of eyes would foster a league-wide consistency. It would also eliminate any and all bias – and padding – by stat crews and or coaching staffs.
I doubt you'd see any more 200-tackle seasons. And I'd start accepting tackle statistics as legit.
Here's the NFL tackle chart for 2007. The first column is the number of defensive snaps by a team. Now subtract the non-tackle plays (incompletions, interceptions and offensive touchdowns) in the second column, producing the number of actual tackle plays (third column). Now divide the number of credited tackles (fourth column) by the number of actual tackle plays (third column). That produces an average number of tackles per play by a team (fifth column).
http://i5.***BLOCKED***/albums/y164/nbr1diva/Cowboys/tackles.gif
OK, off the soapbox now and on to the 2008 season. I'm almost two weeks into my training camp tour. I've visited the Commanders, Eagles, Giants, Browns and Bengals thus far, plus a stop in Canton last weekend for the Hall of Fame inductions.
There were no Cowboys enshrined, but it was a big day for Texas nonetheless. With the inductions of cornerbacks Darrell Green (Houston) and Emmitt Thomas (Angleton), Texas has leapfrogged Pennsylvania as the state that has produced the most Hall of Famers. Texas now has 27 and Pennsylvania 26. Ohio is next with 21, followed by California with 16.
Pet peeve
Speaking of Thomas, Hall of Fame induction emcee Chris Berman and TV commentator Al Michaels both emphasized how Art Monk had to wait so long for his induction – eight years. Seven times he was a finalist before he was elected to the Class of 2008. But the two men didn't dwell on the 29-year wait by Monk's classmate, Emmitt Thomas. His 25-year window of eligibility came and went without the Hall of Fame selection committee ever discussing his candidacy. He had to wait another four years before the seniors' committee finally plucked him from the abyss and presented him for nomination. Thomas became a first-ballot selection – but it took him 29 years to reach his first ballot. Twenty-nine years is a long wait, not eight. Thomas is every bit the Hall of Famer Art Monk is. No more, no less.
Last year, when Michael Irvin was selected for the Class of 2007, he stood at the podium the day before the Super Bowl and talked about his three-year "wait" for enshrinement. He was a finalist each of those three years. Sitting in the chair right next to him on the stage was 1970s all-decade tight end Charlie Sanders, who waited 30 years to become a first-time finalist. Thirty years is a long wait, not three. Sanders was every bit the Hall of Famer Irvin is. No more, no less.
Canton no-shows
When Falcons owner Arthur Blank and president Rich McKay needed football life jackets last December, Emmitt Thomas agreed to coach their sinking franchise on an interim basis, steering Atlanta through the final three games of a very difficult season. Thomas remains with the Falcons this season as the assistant head coach. He was inducted into the Hall of Fame last weekend – but neither Blank nor McKay traveled to Canton for his enshrinement. That's embarrassing. Loyal employee that he is, Thomas deserved better support from his employers.
Class of 2009
Players appearing on the Hall of Fame ballot for the first time in 2009 are defensive end Bruce Smith, defensive tackle John Randle, defensive back Rod Woodson and tight end Shannon Sharpe. Smith is the NFL's all-time leading sacker and Woodson was selected to the league's 75th anniversary team in 1994. They loom as the favorites for induction next summer.
If the Super Bowl were played tomorrow
Look for a resurrection by the New Orleans Saints in 2008. They were one game away in 2006, then forgot how to compete in 2007. The schedule is favorable in 2008 with games against the NFC North and AFC West, so don't be surprised if the Saints sneak in. Keep an eye on the AFC South this fall. All four teams are contenders. But the division is still Peyton's Place. So let's go with Colts-Saints this week.
Tim Tebow Derby
With a Heisman Trophy already in his trophy case, it's a logical assumption that Florida quarterback Tim Tebow may skip his senior season in 2009 to enter the NFL draft next April. The NFL loves franchise quarterbacks, and it would love a prospect like Tebow. At 6-3, 232 pounds, he's as dangerous with his legs as with his left arm. He rushed for 23 touchdowns last season and passed for 32. Atlanta and Miami face the biggest rebuilding chores this fall, so pencil the Falcons and Dolphins in as candidates for the first overall pick in 2009. But both teams drafted young quarterbacks in 2008 – Matt Ryan by the Falcons and Chad Henne by the Dolphins. Stay tuned.
Book review
I received an advance copy of Jeff Pearlman's book Boys Will Be Boys, detailing "the glory days and party nights of the Dallas Cowboys destiny." I've been a fan of Pearlman since reading his biography on Barry Bonds, Love Me, Hate Me. He's a gifted storyteller. Pearlman doesn't pull any punches in documenting the rise and fall of the 1990s Cowboys. What they did on the field was admirable, but what they did off the field was at times despicable. This is a tale of self-destruction – and not just publicly at the top where Jerry Jones and Jimmy Johnson could no longer co-exist. This team self-destructed in the locker room as well. Pearlman dug deep in his research, speaking with the likes of Rob Awalt, Cory Fleming, Derrick Lassic and Clayton Holmes in addition to franchise A-listers Michael Irvin, Jay Novacek, Mark Stepnoski and Darren Woodson in printing what went right and wrong during the dynasty. More went wrong than most Cowboys fans would care to know. It's a real page-turner.
NFC East watch
I find it interesting that the Cowboys were the one team in the NFC East in dire need of a young wide receiver – yet they were the only team in the division that did not address the position with a premium draft pick (first three rounds) in April. The Commanders took both Devin Thomas (Michigan State) and Malcolm Kelly (Oklahoma) in the second round, as did the Eagles DeSean Jackson (California). The Giants took Mario Manningham (Michigan) in the third round. Of the four, I would expect Kelly to have the quickest and biggest impact as a receiver in 2008. He's 6-4 and complements smurfs Santana Moss and Antwaan Randle El on Washington's flank. Kelly will be a factor in the red zone.
Travel note
I spend a lot of time driving each summer during my training camp tour. On my first trip, I flew into Dulles Airport to start the tour with the Commanders. Then I drove to Bethlehem, Pa., to visit the Eagles and on to Albany, N.Y., to visit the Giants. Some 600 miles later, I've reached this conclusion – satellite radio is the greatest invention for cars since cruise control.
Two-minute drill
■ Kudos to the Carolina Panthers for their handling of the Steve Smith situation internally. After Smith broke the nose of cornerback Ken Lucas in a fight on the practice field, the Panthers suspended him for the first two games of the regular season. It was the right thing to do – although it won't look like the right thing in the season opener when the Panthers travel to San Diego. The Panthers would have a tough time beating the Chargers with Smith. Without their Pro Bowl wide receiver, it will be darn near impossible.
■ The three best teams in the NFC could all be in the NFC East: Dallas, New York and Philadelphia. But the top seed in the NFC will probably come elsewhere because the teams in the East are going to beat each other up this fall. The NFC East champ may wind up with an 11-5 record.
■ For the third consecutive summer, the Eagles have a player on the roster who has changed his name. In 2006, cornerback Will Peterson changed his to William James. In 2007, offensive tackle Tra Thomas changed his to William Thomas, and this summer, defensive end Juqua Thomas changed his name to Juqua Parker. Thomas has since gone back to Tra.
■ With the departure of Michael Strahan, Justin Tuck steps in as the starting strong-side end of the New York Giants. He will continue to slide inside on passing downs, as he did last year, with linebacker Mathias Kiwanuka moving up to end and putting his hand on the ground in pass-rush situations.
Final thought
Memo to all Cowboys fans who wanted Dallas to trade up for Southern California wide receiver Mike Williams in the 2005 NFL draft: If you still want him, he's yours. And you can get him cheaply. He was sent packing by his third NFL team last week when the Tennessee Titans said good-bye. The Detroit Lions, who drafted him with the 10th overall pick in 2005, and the Oakland Raiders also showed him the door. Williams battled his weight throughout his brief career and wound up catching only 44 career passes. I received countless e-mails in the weeks leading up to the 2005 draft from Cowboys fans who envisioned Williams as the next Michael Irvin, imploring the Cowboys to trade up for him at any cost. Sometimes the best trades are the ones that aren't made.
