DMN: Stephen Jones thinks like Cowboys Blog

[WoodysGirl]

10:43 AM Mon, Apr 07, 2008 | Permalink | Yahoo! Buzz
Albert Breer http://www.***BANNED-URL***/blogs/images/email-icon.jpg E-mail http://www.***BANNED-URL***/blogs/images/email-icon.jpg News tips

In Peter King's Monday Morning Quarterback, Cowboys COO Stephen Jones didn't seem too excited about spending one of the team's two first-rounders on a receiver, on the premise that this is a "now" draft for Dallas.

"I would argue that, other than quarterback, receiver is the toughest position to get players to come in year one and make a real impact,'' Jones said.

Consensus I've always heard, and that I believe, is that receivers normally really break out in Year 3, and the reasons are the same as at quarterback -- lying in the complexities of the passing game at the pro level. Hot reads and sight adjustments are a big part of an NFL offense, as are understanding coverage and earning a quarterback's trust, and those things take time to come for a young player.

Plus, as we intimated here last week, this isn't exactly a bumper crop of receivers. So I'm on board with Stephen there.

Also in King's piece, Jerry Jones takes time to shoot down the notion that he's going to open the vault if the league ever gets to that uncapped season of 2010.

"I am so grounded in the thinking that higher payrolls don't win Super Bowls,'' Jones said. "Remember -- one year when we won the Super Bowl [in the '90s], we had the second-lowest payroll in football. I've never experienced success throwing money at players. I never see myself doing that [being a Steinbrenner].''

As I wrote last week in SI, the Cowboys are most likely to try -- key word there, try -- to use their two first-round picks on two of three things: a running back, a cornerback and a wide receiver -- but a wide receiver to be acquired in a trade from another team. Ran into Cowboys COO and director of player personnel Stephen Jones at the meetings, and he raised a good point about rookie receivers. "I would argue that, other than quarterback, receiver is the toughest position to get players to come in year one and make a real impact,'' Jones said.

So I went back through the eight first rounds of this decade and checked out how right Jones was. The conclusion: pretty right.

Of the 34 first-round wide receivers since 2000, only three have caught at least 60 balls in their rookie seasons. Dwayne Bowe (Kansas City, 2007) had a 70-catch season last year. Michael Clayton (Tampa Bay, 2004) made 80 catches in his first year. Andre Johnson (Houston, 2003) caught 66 passes as a rookie.

Some great receivers have developed out of the first round, but not early. Reggie Wayne is terrific now, but he had a 27-catch, 345-yard rookie year. Roddy White's first two Atlanta seasons netted 59 catches, far from his third season total of 83 in 2007. Plaxico Burress caught 22 passes as a rookie. He's averaged 64 a year since.

Dallas picks 22nd and 28th in the first round, and the last 10 picks of the first round have produced some god-awful wide receivers. R. Jay Soward ... Sylvester Morris ... Michael Jenkins. Dallas would be more than smart -- especially in a year that owner Jerry Jones told me is a "now'' draft year -- to deal for a receiver, not draft one. If they can.

 

[Bach]

In Peter King's Monday Morning Quarterback[/COLOR][/URL], Cowboys COO Stephen Jones didn't seem too excited about spending one of the team's two first-rounders on a receiver, on the premise that this is a "now" draft for Dallas.

"I would argue that, other than quarterback, receiver is the toughest position to get players to come in year one and make a real impact,'' Jones said.

That's an idiotic reason to not take a WR. If there aren't any with first round grades available when we pick then that's one thing. But just to write them off because we need a "now" draft is ********.

 

[tyke1doe]

Good offering, WG.

 

[theogt]

That's an idiotic reason to not take a WR. If there aren't any with first round grades available when we pick then that's one thing. But just to write them off because we need a "now" draft is ********.

Not if the idea is to spend one of those first round picks in a trade for a veteran WR.

 

[Chief]

I see Breer's blog already got this.

Please delete.

 

[Bach]

Not if the idea is to spend one of those first round picks in a trade for a veteran WR.

In that case, that would be an entirely different story.

 

[Eddie]

That's an idiotic reason to not take a WR. If there aren't any with first round grades available when we pick then that's one thing. But just to write them off because we need a "now" draft is ********.

I agree. We've ignored the WR position much too long in the draft.

 

[Big Dakota]

That's an idiotic reason to not take a WR. If there aren't any with first round grades available when we pick then that's one thing. But just to write them off because we need a "now" draft is ********.

:laugh2: I love it.

 

[Yakuza Rich]

That's an idiotic reason to not take a WR. If there aren't any with first round grades available when we pick then that's one thing. But just to write them off because we need a "now" draft is ********.

I agree. Dallas doesn't have many holes to fill in right now if they stay reasonably healthy. Cornerback and backup tailback are two needs. But with the CB and RB spots being so deep in this draft and the WR spot being pretty thin, they may want to go after the best WR now so that even if he doesn't make an impact this year, he can be ready in year 2 or 3 to make the impact when Glenn and Owens are likely gone. And then they can still use the other picks on a CB and RB and they can still make an impact early on.



YAKUZA

 

[big dog cowboy]

"I am so grounded in the thinking that higher payrolls don't win Super Bowls,'' Jones said. "Remember -- one year when we won the Super Bowl [in the '90s], we had the second-lowest payroll in football. I've never experienced success throwing money at players. I never see myself doing that [being a Steinbrenner].''

Deion Sanders doesn't agree with you Jerry.

 

[Stash]

Given this line of thinking, exactly when do the Cowboys draft a wide receiver?

I hate to break it do Jerry or Stephen but their track record with wide receivers hasn't been very good doing things their way.

I fact, the two name receivers they have were acquired via trade and free agency - and both of those are reaching their expiration date(s).

Given where this team is and by having two first rounders should be the ideal time to have the luxury of acquiring a talented receiver and being able to be patient with him.

Unless acquiring a talented veteran is assured, I don't agree with their line of thing at all.

 

[burmafrd]

Dead On. The bust factor is so high with rookie wrs. Get Roy Williams or Boldin. Those are SURE things.

 

[AMERICAS_FAN]

That's an idiotic reason to not take a WR. If there aren't any with first round grades available when we pick then that's one thing. But just to write them off because we need a "now" draft is ********.

What I took away from the post is that Dallas intends to trade one its first round picks for a veteran WR they are targeting (like Detroit’s Roy Williams, for example). If they can do that then they'll use the other pick on a CB or RB, depending on who's available at those positions and how they have them, or players at other positions, graded.

But what if Dallas does not land a WR via a trade? Then they have two first round picks and I think they would draft a WR, but only if one is available and graded better than the CBs and RBs left on their board. By the #22 pick though, I would venture to guess that there will be better CBs and RBs available than WRs, and that's probably the main reason - and a good reason - why Dallas would not take a WR in round 1 of the draft.

 

[lcharles]

So maybe by next year we see if Stanback was a legit pick or not? :shoot5:

 

[ABQCOWBOY]

Man, I would love to work these two first round draft picks into a good Vet WR and three high picks in the 2nd round. If we could have 4 picks in the 2nd round and a good 2nd WR, I think we could go a long way towards getting pretty much all we need in this draft. JMO.

 

[ddh33]

I completely agree with going after the proven commodity at wide receiver. But what isn't clear at all to me is who Dallas is targeting? I mean, Roy Williams11 would be nice, but is he really available? Boldin would be great too, but he seems to like AZ. Chad Johnson worries me anyway, and I don't think he's available...

So if the team is going to put their eggs in that basket, I want to know what they think they are going to come away with?

Worst case, I think you can still get a good receiver prospect at 28. Sweed might be there. Kelly might even be there. But again, the premise here is that those guys probably wouldn't help as much, and I tend to agree...

 

[CrazyCowboy]

Good read......But, I hope we get a Wr in the 3rd rd

 

[jterrell]

Stephen is going to be an awesome owner whenever Jerry hands over the reigns.

He simply gets it.


BP and Ireland and the brain trust we had here preached that WR was a horrid first round value and I tend to agree. The hit miss ratio is ridiculous. The leagues elite WRs were often not even 1st round picks and a lot of first round picks were complete and total busts.

WRs drafted in round 1 since 2000: --- apologies in advance for formatting.

2000 4 Peter Warrick Bengals Florida State BUST
8 Plaxico Burress Steelers Michigan State HIT but FA
10 Travis Taylor Ravens Florida MEDIOCRE AT BEST
21 Sylvester Morris Chiefs Jackson State BUST
29 R. Jay Soward Jaguars USC BUST

2001 8 David Terrell Bears Michigan SUPERBUST
9 Koren Robinson Seahawks North Carolina State BUST OFF_FIELD
15 Rod Gardner Commanders Clemson BUST
16 Santana Moss Jets Miami (FL) SLOW DEVELOPER but HIT
25 Freddie Mitchell Eagles UCLA BUST
30 Reggie Wayne Colts Miami (FL) SUPERSTAR

2002 13 Donte Stallworth Saints Tennessee SLOW DEV but GOOD
19 Ashley Lelie Broncos Hawaii BUST
20 Javon Walker Packers Florida State GOOD Til INJURED

2003 2 Charles Rogers Lions Michigan State BUST'O
3 Andre Johnson Texans Miami (FL) STAR
17 Bryant Johnson Cardinals Penn State SLOW DEV. could be GOOD

2004 3 Larry Fitzgerald Cardinals Pittsburgh SUPERSTAR
7 Roy Williams Lions Texas Looks like SUPERSTAR
9 Reggie Williams Jaguars Washington average player
13 Lee Evans Bills Wisconsin Moderate success
15 Michael Clayton Buccaneers Louisiana State Solid player
29 Michael Jenkins Falcons Ohio State moderate success
31 Rashaun Woods 49ers Oklahoma State BUST

2005 3 Braylon Edwards Browns Michigan STAR
7 Troy Williamson Vikings South Carolina BUST
10 Mike Williams Lions USC BUST
21 Matt Jones Jaguars Arkansas Below Average
22 Mark Clayton Ravens Oklahoma Mediocre
27 Roddy White Falcons Alabama-Birmingham above average--bad QBs

2006 25 Santonio Holmes Steelers Ohio State Mediocre

I left off 2007 because it is so recent but Bowe, Gonzales and Calvin Johnson look like players. A few other guys look lost but one year is too early to tell.

My quick math says 12 of 31 players were total busts. Thats a ridiculously high percentage of first rounders who flat sucked. Not only that but those drafted outside the top 10 only 1 player has become a star, Reggie Wayne.

IMHO it is clear if you wan to go WR the best bet is to trade down into round 2 while picking up a 3rd so you have 2 chances to hit. The hit ratio is just craptacular for WRs in round 1. When you do see hits it appears they happen in bunches. Draft classes either have 3 or 4 good Wrs or next to none.

I'd say this is a next to none class.

If we draft Wr round 1 I'll be sadface for sure.

 

[jterrell]

I completely agree with going after the proven commodity at wide receiver. But what isn't clear at all to me is who Dallas is targeting? I mean, Roy Williams11 would be nice, but is he really available? Boldin would be great too, but he seems to like AZ. Chad Johnson worries me anyway, and I don't think he's available...

So if the team is going to put their eggs in that basket, I want to know what they think they are going to come away with?

Worst case, I think you can still get a good receiver prospect at 28. Sweed might be there. Kelly might even be there. But again, the premise here is that those guys probably wouldn't help as much, and I tend to agree...

Draft picks hold the most value they ever will on draft day.

I'd say we'd simply offer 22 or 28 up to Detroit or Arizona or whomever while on the clock and let them decide if the guy they want is worth the swap.

Very seldom is a deal like this done prior to draft day once it has made it this close.

Those teams may very well have a list of 4 or 5 guys the hope to see fall and if they get close and enough are there they pull the trigger.

I suspect the guy we want is Roy Williams. He is a Texas guy who wants to be here and Jerry loves those types of guys but he also has been a part of teams that played some of their best football against us and teams remember how hard it is to cover those guys.

 

[Rockytop6]

That's an idiotic reason to not take a WR. If there aren't any with first round grades available when we pick then that's one thing. But just to write them off because we need a "now" draft is ********.

Yep! Stephen is ******** alright. Why don't we wait and see who they draft before we try to gauge his I.Q.