Do Regular Season Wins/Points to Correlate to Playoff Wins?

[Diehardblues]

Regular season wins don’t predict. BUT- Regular season TOTAL point differentials DO very accurately predict playoff success. In 2018, all 4 teams that made the NFC or AFC conference championship games had a point differential of +100.

Same in 2017. All 4 teams in conference championship games had a +100 PD.
In 2016, 3 of 4 teams in conference championship games had +100 PD. (Dallas had +115, lost to GB who only had +44)
In 2015, All 3 of 4 teams in conference championship games had a plus +100 PD. Denver was the outlier at +56 but they won the SB.
In 2014, all 4 teams in conference championship games had a +100 PD.

So in the last 5 years, 18 of the 20 teams playing in the NFC or AFC championship games had a strong +100 point differential or better.

I would say that’s a very good indicator of playoff success.

Good stuff Bob!

 

[JD_KaPow]

So this is interesting (at least to me).

Looking at the aveage regular season season point differentials for teams in the first two rounds of the playoffs, from 2000-2018:

Wild card round:
Home winners: 70
Home losers: 71
Road winners: 85
Road losers: 52

Divisional round (home teams had byes):
Home winners: 140
Home losers: 140
Road winners: 95
Road losers: 68

Remember, home teams win the majority of these games (the vast majority in the divisional round). In both cases, the home team's point differential was not predictive of the outcome of the game. But the road team's was. The stronger the road team during the regular season (as measured by PD), the more likely they were to pull off the upset.

By the time you reach the championship round, there's no correlation, but that's not too surprising: both teams are strong and usually played very different schedules.

 

[RoboQB]

The missed kick in Chicago at the end of the game is a 6 win swing in the OP equation.

 

[xwalker]

You're talking to someone trying to use a single playoff year as a sample size and views it as him making a "contribution" to the boards.

You have no clue what you're talking about. You are just repeating what some knucklehead said.

A concept, formula or equation should work when tested on 1 season of data.

If it fails then there's not much point in testing it further.

If I were presenting a concept/formula/equation that I said does something, then I should be expected to verify it myself on a large data set (multiple years).

 

[JD_KaPow]

You have no clue what you're talking about. You are just repeating what some knucklehead said.

A concept, formula or equation should work when tested on 1 season of data.

If it fails then there's not much point in testing it further.

Wow is that not true. You can't test the concept that a coin flip is 50/50 with only a few tosses.

 

[Toruk_Makto]

Groupies only follow.

They don't help anyone see anything.

So you're embarrassed for your rudimentary understanding of how to apply statistics meaningfully and so are resorting to name calling.

Got it.

 

[Kevinicus]

You have no clue what you're talking about. You are just repeating what some knucklehead said.

A concept, formula or equation should work when tested on 1 season of data.

If it fails then there's not much point in testing it further.

If I were presenting a concept/formula/equation that I said does something, then I should be expected to verify it myself on a large data set (multiple years).

I am not repeating anyone.

What an absurd post. You have complete lack of understanding of statistics. Stop using them.

Utterly embarrassing.

 

[Whirlwin]

Do regular season Win/Loss records predict Playoff Wins?
Answer: No (based on 2018 data)

Do regular season Points Differential predict Playoff Wins?
Answer: No (based on 2018 data)

2018 Data Provided Below
- Playoff Games Winners/Losers vs Regular Season Wins
- Playoff Games Winners/Loser vs Regular Season Points Differentials

Note:
Regular Season Points Differential = Offensive Points minus Defensive Points Allowed

Format:
- Playoff Game Winner ..... Reg Season Wins
- Playoff Game Loser ....... Reg Season Wins

Negative Winner Differential Indicates Game Loser better in Reg Season.

2018 Playoff Games (Regular Season Wins)
Dallas Cowboys ................ 10
Seattle Seahawks ............. 10
Winner Differential ............ 0

Indianapolis Colts ............. 10
Houston Texans ................ 11
Winner Differential ............ -1

Los Angeles Chargers ...... 12
Baltimore Ravens ............. 10
Winner Differential ............ 2

Philadelphia Eagles .......... 9
Chicago Bears .................. 12
Winner Differential ............ -3

Kansas City Chiefs ............ 12
Indianapolis Colts ............ 10
Winner Differential ............ 2

Los Angeles Rams ........... 13
Dallas Cowboys ................ 10
Winner Differential ............ 3

New England Patriots ....... 11
Los Angeles Chargers ...... 12
Winner Differential ............ -1

New Orleans Saints .......... 13
Philadelphia Eagles .......... 9
Winner Differential ............ 4

Los Angeles Rams ........... 13
New Orleans Saints .......... 13
Winner Differential ............ 0

New England Patriots ....... 11
Kansas City Chiefs ........... 12
Winner Differential ............ -1

New England Patriots ....... 11
Los Angeles Rams ........... 13
Winner Differential ............ -2

Format:
- Playoff Game Winner ..... Reg Season Points Diff
- Playoff Game Loser ....... Reg Season Points Diff

2018 Playoff Games (Regular Season Points Differential)
Dallas Cowboys ................ 15
Seattle Seahawks ............. 81
Winner Differential ............ -66

Indianapolis Colts ............. 89
Houston Texans ................ 86
Winner Differential ............ 3

Los Angeles Chargers ...... 99
Baltimore Ravens ............. 102
Winner Differential ............ -3

Philadelphia Eagles .......... 19
Chicago Bears .................. 138
Winner Differential ............ -119

Kansas City Chiefs .......... 144
Indianapolis Colts ............. 89
Winner Differential ............ 55

Los Angeles Rams ........... 143
Dallas Cowboys ................ 15
Winner Differential ............ 128

New England Patriots ....... 111
Los Angeles Chargers ...... 99
Winner Differential ............ 12

New Orleans Saints .......... 151
Philadelphia Eagles .......... 19
Winner Differential ............ 132

Los Angeles Rams ........... 111
New Orleans Saints .......... 151
Winner Differential ............ -40

New England Patriots ....... 111
Kansas City Chiefs ........... 144
Winner Differential ............ -33

New England Patriots ....... 111
Los Angeles Rams ........... 143
Winner Differential ............ -32

They called the playoffs a whole new season for a reason. What you did prior none of it matters.

 

[Whirlwin]

I am not repeating anyone.

What an absurd post. You have complete lack of understanding of statistics. Stop using them.

Utterly embarrassing.

We talked about everything from how big is she, she's so big she sells shade, all the way up until. How many times will Ezekiel Elliott say feed me during a game. Absurd post no. Not much else to discuss at this point.

 

[Whirlwin]

This is the new NFL. And leave out the Patriots. Teams go to the Superbowl and they don't make the playoffs The Following season. The league wanted parody oh, well they got it. You threw out whatever happened during the season the season before. The only thing that matters is what you do every single individual game. Innovation new wrinkles. How do people not comprehend this

 

[Whirlwin]

I wrote a computer program back in the 90's. Based differentials in games won, points scored and allowed, total yards for and against. I think I had one other factor in there as well. I think I gave a small fraction for home field.

Then I would keep track of the results, and compared that to my predictions, that I made before I ran the program.
the results did not matter. It was about equal. Matter of fact the predictions I made without the program I had a higher W / L %

But for the program it was slightly over .500
Of course it did not account for injuries, weather, home field, though I think I gave a small fraction for home team. But that was completely a random number. I tried to give 3 points to the home team. It did not include turnovers either. Now that I think of it, maybe I should have added that differential too.

I weighted the score, the total average yards. I can't remember the formula, but it was a ratio of the yard difference and how many points I gave a team based on that differential.

Did you include the Cowboys and a blue jersey. For home games. Sarcasm. a nice post

 

[Kevinicus]

We talked about everything from how big is she, she's so big she sells shade, all the way up until. How many times will Ezekiel Elliott say feed me during a game. Absurd post no. Not much else to discuss at this point.

I didn't mean his OP. I meant his embarrassing post showcasing his complete lack of understanding of statistics.

 

[buybuydandavis]

Check the numbers. They're correct.

It's great that you didn't use the definition you gave.

 

[JBell]

You have no clue what you're talking about. You are just repeating what some knucklehead said.

A concept, formula or equation should work when tested on 1 season of data.

If it fails then there's not much point in testing it further.

If I were presenting a concept/formula/equation that I said does something, then I should be expected to verify it myself on a large data set (multiple years).

 

[xwalker]

Wow is that not true. You can't test the concept that a coin flip is 50/50 with only a few tosses.

Good post about the away team points diff (PD).

The test criteria is relevant to test requirements.

If you said the coin will always be heads, then I only need 1 fail to prove otherwise.

There have been claims that PD predicts playoff winners. The primary claim by another poster, IIRC was 18 0f 20 in his scenario. That's 90%. Using his PD>100 criteria, the 2018 data without the bye advantage was 0 of 2. Including the bye advantage winners it was 4 of 6 with the 4 being the 4 "predicted" by the bye advantage alone. That's a 6 game data set where PD>100 was applicable and the results were not 90%.

Even if we treat a complete season of data as 1 "coin flip" (we really had 6 coin flips) then with a 90% expected success rate it's likely that randomly choosing 2018 and getting a fail, that the concept is not going to result is a 90% prediction success rate. Obviously I would need 1 more fail in 10 years of data to say with certainty that it fails the 90% criteria.

My point was to show the concept that PD alone predicts playoff wins concept is likely due to people confusing cause and effect (i.e. Teams often run more in the 4th quarter when they're winning. It's unlikely that correlation of 4Q rush attempts means that high 4Q rush attempts is a "cause" of winning).

By definition teams with high winning percentage are most likely to get a bye in the wildcard round and home field in the division round against teams that had to play the wildcard round.

PD, like win percentage should correlate to the teams getting the bye and home field against teams that played the extra game.

Going into the playoffs we know which teams have a bye and and should know which teams will have home field in the first 2 rounds.

The bye week and home field are likely a "cause" in regards to winning.

Any correlation of PD with winning is likely the "effect" of teams with higher PD likely (by design) getting the bye and/or home field.

Summary:
High win percentage teams tend to have higher PD. High win percentage teams tend to get the bye and home field. Teams with the bye and home field tend to win those games.

Does PD alone tell us anything other than teams with high PD tend to have high win percentage and high win percentage teams tend (by design) to get the bye and home field in the first two rounds?

 

[JD_KaPow]

Good post about the away team points diff (PD).

The test criteria is relevant to test requirements.

If you said the coin will always be heads, then I only need 1 fail to prove otherwise.

There have been claims that PD predicts playoff winners. The primary claim by another poster, IIRC was 18 0f 20 in his scenario. That's 90%. Using his PD>100 criteria, the 2018 data without the bye advantage was 0 of 2. Including the bye advantage winners it was 4 of 6 with the 4 being the 4 "predicted" by the bye advantage alone. That's a 6 game data set where PD>100 was applicable and the results were not 90%.

Even if we treat a complete season of data as 1 "coin flip" (we really had 6 coin flips) then with a 90% expected success rate it's likely that randomly choosing 2018 and getting a fail, that the concept is not going to result is a 90% prediction success rate. Obviously I would need 1 more fail in 10 years of data to say with certainty that it fails the 90% criteria.

My point was to show the concept that PD alone predicts playoff wins concept is likely due to people confusing cause and effect (i.e. Teams often run more in the 4th quarter when they're winning. It's unlikely that correlation of 4Q rush attempts means that high 4Q rush attempts is a "cause" of winning).

By definition teams with high winning percentage are most likely to get a bye in the wildcard round and home field in the division round against teams that had to play the wildcard round.

PD, like win percentage should correlate to the teams getting the bye and home field against teams that played the extra game.

Going into the playoffs we know which teams have a bye and and should know which teams will have home field in the first 2 rounds.

The bye week and home field are likely a "cause" in regards to winning.

Any correlation of PD with winning is likely the "effect" of teams with higher PD likely (by design) getting the bye and/or home field.

Summary:
High win percentage teams tend to have higher PD. High win percentage teams tend to get the bye and home field. Teams with the bye and home field tend to win those games.

Does PD alone tell us anything other than teams with high PD tend to have high win percentage and high win percentage teams tend (by design) to get the bye and home field in the first two rounds?

On the first point, nobody thinks that PD is the only determining factor. If I think a coin is weighted to be 60% heads, it still takes many many trials to be sure.

On your last line, I think it does. As I showed, there's a correlation between the Delta-PD of the teams and the winner. Stronger road teams (those with PDs closer to the home team) are more likely to win.

 

[xwalker]

.....

On the first point, nobody thinks that PD is the only determining factor. If I think a coin is weighted to be 60% heads, it still takes many many trials to be sure.

From the primary poster advocating PD:
"Look at last year (2018), there were 6 NFL teams that had a +100 or better point differential and 4 of them again made the conf championship game, including both SB teams had +100 PD. PD is huge in predicting playoff success."

Obviously PD was not "huge" in that scenario because bye team vs wildcard round team was 100% accurate vs 4 of 6 for PD alone and without the "help" of bye vs no-bye team, PD was 0 of 2.

On your last line, I think it does. As I showed, there's a correlation between the Delta-PD of the teams and the winner. Stronger road teams (those with PDs closer to the home team) are more likely to win.

I specifically said PD alone because PD plus home/away is interesting and good research but is not PD alone.