Don't wait for a pass rusher

[GhostOfPelluer]

I did a little research on pass rushers using the crudest (but most measureable) stat: sacks. I went in thinking that drafting a pass rusher in the first round isn't necessary because folks like Greg Hardy, Justin Houston and Cliff Avril stuck out in my mind. I went for a three-year sample size, which is hardly conclusive but it at least gave me a decent idea of trends - which is all I really wanted. It's not like I'm getting paid to research this stuff.

As with every bit of research, I had to create a standard to measure against. I chose 10 sacks. I chose 10 sacks not because it's definitive as much as it is readily identified in even the most basic football circles as having been a good season getting after the passer.

As tends to happen, my mind was deceiving me. I actually found out that the best chance at drafting a 10-sack guy happened in the first round. That alone wasn't as surprising as the overwhelming majority represented by that round. In each of the past three seasons, more 10-sack players were drafted in the first round than in every other round combined. Even if you added UFA to the other rounds, first-rounders still out-sacked the lesser-hyped folks.

Here are my results:

2016 10 sacks or more
Beasley 1st round
Miller 1
Alexander UFA
Golden 2
Hunter 3
Avril 3
Wake UFA
Walden 6
Kerrigan 1
C Jones 1
Perry 1
Mack 1
Orakpo 1
Bosa 1
Ford 1
Clark 2
TOTALS: 9 in 1st Round, 2 in 2nd, 2 in 3rd, 1 in 6th and 2 UFA.

2015
Watt 1
Mack 1
Ansah 1
Dunlap 2
C Jones 1
Wilkerson 1
Mercilus 1
Atkins 4
Miller 1
Donald 1
Short 2
Peppers 1
Griffen 4
Ingram 1
C Jordan 1
Bennett UFA
TOTALS: 11 in 1st Round, 2 in 2nd, 2 in 4th, 1 UFA

2014
Houston 3
Watt 1
Dumervil 4
M Williams 1
Barwin 2
Miller 1
Kerrigan 1
Pierre-Paul 1
Griffen 4
Suggs 1
Wake UFA
Kruger 2
C Matthews 1
Quinn 1
Dareus 1
W Young 7
Ware 1
Galette UFA
TOTALS: 10 in 1st round, 2 in 2nd, 1 in 3rd, 2 in 4th, 1 in 7th and 2 UFA.

 

[Alexander]

It is not that hard and really doesn't require a lot of analysis.

If you want a pass rusher who could potential be an impact player, you better take them early.

Cornerbacks can wait if you have a choice between the two. Historically this is the case and especially in this draft with a deep class.

 

[xwalker]

I did a little research on pass rushers using the crudest (but most measureable) stat: sacks. I went in thinking that drafting a pass rusher in the first round isn't necessary because folks like Greg Hardy, Justin Houston and Cliff Avril stuck out in my mind. I went for a three-year sample size, which is hardly conclusive but it at least gave me a decent idea of trends - which is all I really wanted. It's not like I'm getting paid to research this stuff.

As with every bit of research, I had to create a standard to measure against. I chose 10 sacks. I chose 10 sacks not because it's definitive as much as it is readily identified in even the most basic football circles as having been a good season getting after the passer.

As tends to happen, my mind was deceiving me. I actually found out that the best chance at drafting a 10-sack guy happened in the first round. That alone wasn't as surprising as the overwhelming majority represented by that round. In each of the past three seasons, more 10-sack players were drafted in the first round than in every other round combined. Even if you added UFA to the other rounds, first-rounders still out-sacked the lesser-hyped folks.

Here are my results:

2016 10 sacks or more
Beasley 1st round
Miller 1
Alexander UFA
Golden 2
Hunter 3
Avril 3
Wake UFA
Walden 6
Kerrigan 1
C Jones 1
Perry 1
Mack 1
Orakpo 1
Bosa 1
Ford 1
Clark 2
TOTALS: 9 in 1st Round, 2 in 2nd, 2 in 3rd, 1 in 6th and 2 UFA.

2015
Watt 1
Mack 1
Ansah 1
Dunlap 2
C Jones 1
Wilkerson 1
Mercilus 1
Atkins 4
Miller 1
Donald 1
Short 2
Peppers 1
Griffen 4
Ingram 1
C Jordan 1
Bennett UFA
TOTALS: 11 in 1st Round, 2 in 2nd, 2 in 4th, 1 UFA

2014
Houston 3
Watt 1
Dumervil 4
M Williams 1
Barwin 2
Miller 1
Kerrigan 1
Pierre-Paul 1
Griffen 4
Suggs 1
Wake UFA
Kruger 2
C Matthews 1
Quinn 1
Dareus 1
W Young 7
Ware 1
Galette UFA
TOTALS: 10 in 1st round, 2 in 2nd, 1 in 3rd, 2 in 4th, 1 in 7th and 2 UFA.

Nice work.

 

[darthseinfeld]

It is not that hard and really doesn't require a lot of analysis.

If you want a pass rusher who could potential be an impact player, you better take them early.

Cornerbacks can wait if you have a choice between the two. Historically this is the case and especially in this draft with a deep class.

If the value of the players is close, Im taking a pass rusher at 28 and Im not thinking twice about it

 

[GhostOfPelluer]

It is not that hard and really doesn't require a lot of analysis.

If you want a pass rusher who could potential be an impact player, you better take them early.

Cornerbacks can wait if you have a choice between the two. Historically this is the case and especially in this draft with a deep class.

By all means. Prevailing wisdom always trumps data-driven analysis.

BTW, of the 17 active players with at least 20 career interceptions, 10 were picked in the first round. More than every other round (including UFA) combined. Can't statistically wait on DBs, either.

 

[Alexander]

By all means. Prevailing wisdom always trumps data-driven analysis.

BTW, of the 17 active players with at least 20 career interceptions, 10 were picked in the first round. More than every other round (including UFA) combined. Can't statistically wait on DBs, either.

That depends entirely on who you are using as "active". Who are the 17 you are using?

 

[WeaponX]

I did a little research on pass rushers using the crudest (but most measureable) stat: sacks. I went in thinking that drafting a pass rusher in the first round isn't necessary because folks like Greg Hardy, Justin Houston and Cliff Avril stuck out in my mind. I went for a three-year sample size, which is hardly conclusive but it at least gave me a decent idea of trends - which is all I really wanted. It's not like I'm getting paid to research this stuff.

As with every bit of research, I had to create a standard to measure against. I chose 10 sacks. I chose 10 sacks not because it's definitive as much as it is readily identified in even the most basic football circles as having been a good season getting after the passer.

As tends to happen, my mind was deceiving me. I actually found out that the best chance at drafting a 10-sack guy happened in the first round. That alone wasn't as surprising as the overwhelming majority represented by that round. In each of the past three seasons, more 10-sack players were drafted in the first round than in every other round combined. Even if you added UFA to the other rounds, first-rounders still out-sacked the lesser-hyped folks.

Here are my results:

2016 10 sacks or more
Beasley 1st round
Miller 1
Alexander UFA
Golden 2
Hunter 3
Avril 3
Wake UFA
Walden 6
Kerrigan 1
C Jones 1
Perry 1
Mack 1
Orakpo 1
Bosa 1
Ford 1
Clark 2
TOTALS: 9 in 1st Round, 2 in 2nd, 2 in 3rd, 1 in 6th and 2 UFA.

2015
Watt 1
Mack 1
Ansah 1
Dunlap 2
C Jones 1
Wilkerson 1
Mercilus 1
Atkins 4
Miller 1
Donald 1
Short 2
Peppers 1
Griffen 4
Ingram 1
C Jordan 1
Bennett UFA
TOTALS: 11 in 1st Round, 2 in 2nd, 2 in 4th, 1 UFA

2014
Houston 3
Watt 1
Dumervil 4
M Williams 1
Barwin 2
Miller 1
Kerrigan 1
Pierre-Paul 1
Griffen 4
Suggs 1
Wake UFA
Kruger 2
C Matthews 1
Quinn 1
Dareus 1
W Young 7
Ware 1
Galette UFA
TOTALS: 10 in 1st round, 2 in 2nd, 1 in 3rd, 2 in 4th, 1 in 7th and 2 UFA.

Quick note on Hardy and Houston which furthers your point here - they were both widely considered top tier pass rush prospects in their respective draft classes, but fell for "red flag" reasons. Houston fell due to a failed drug test at the combine and happened to come out in the vaunted 2011 draft, which was loaded with pass rushers. The issues surrounding Hardy were his attitude (go figure) and his work ethic. Combined with a few bad workouts, and his fall was pretty hard. Their productivity in the league would be much more expected due to their respective talent levels and would be a similar narrative to Randy Gregory had he worked out for us/if he ends up working out for us (ducking).

I don't recall as much about Avril, but it may have been size related.

 

[Stash]

I did a little research on pass rushers using the crudest (but most measureable) stat: sacks. I went in thinking that drafting a pass rusher in the first round isn't necessary because folks like Greg Hardy, Justin Houston and Cliff Avril stuck out in my mind. I went for a three-year sample size, which is hardly conclusive but it at least gave me a decent idea of trends - which is all I really wanted. It's not like I'm getting paid to research this stuff.

As with every bit of research, I had to create a standard to measure against. I chose 10 sacks. I chose 10 sacks not because it's definitive as much as it is readily identified in even the most basic football circles as having been a good season getting after the passer.

As tends to happen, my mind was deceiving me. I actually found out that the best chance at drafting a 10-sack guy happened in the first round. That alone wasn't as surprising as the overwhelming majority represented by that round. In each of the past three seasons, more 10-sack players were drafted in the first round than in every other round combined. Even if you added UFA to the other rounds, first-rounders still out-sacked the lesser-hyped folks.

Here are my results:

2016 10 sacks or more
Beasley 1st round
Miller 1
Alexander UFA
Golden 2
Hunter 3
Avril 3
Wake UFA
Walden 6
Kerrigan 1
C Jones 1
Perry 1
Mack 1
Orakpo 1
Bosa 1
Ford 1
Clark 2
TOTALS: 9 in 1st Round, 2 in 2nd, 2 in 3rd, 1 in 6th and 2 UFA.

2015
Watt 1
Mack 1
Ansah 1
Dunlap 2
C Jones 1
Wilkerson 1
Mercilus 1
Atkins 4
Miller 1
Donald 1
Short 2
Peppers 1
Griffen 4
Ingram 1
C Jordan 1
Bennett UFA
TOTALS: 11 in 1st Round, 2 in 2nd, 2 in 4th, 1 UFA

2014
Houston 3
Watt 1
Dumervil 4
M Williams 1
Barwin 2
Miller 1
Kerrigan 1
Pierre-Paul 1
Griffen 4
Suggs 1
Wake UFA
Kruger 2
C Matthews 1
Quinn 1
Dareus 1
W Young 7
Ware 1
Galette UFA
TOTALS: 10 in 1st round, 2 in 2nd, 1 in 3rd, 2 in 4th, 1 in 7th and 2 UFA.

Good stuff! Thanks for taking the time to do the research and share it with the rest of us.

 

[GhostOfPelluer]

That depends entirely on who you are using as "active". Who are the 17 you are using?

Those who played through 2016. It's possible some may not be playing in 2017, but it gives as useable a reference point as any.

 

[Doomsday101]

I would agree as long as the player you take is worthy of being drafted in the 1st rd. I want Dallas to bring in someone who can get after the QB, what I don't want is for them to reach at any position.

 

[Alexander]

Those who played through 2016. It's possible some may not be playing in 2017, but it gives as useable a reference point as any.

I see. A lot depends if you have players that are pretty much out of the league like Cromartie on there.

 

[Sarge]

This is precisely why I have been saying all along that we are going DE with the first pick. No brainer. .02

 

[Rogerthat12]

I did a little research on pass rushers using the crudest (but most measureable) stat: sacks. I went in thinking that drafting a pass rusher in the first round isn't necessary because folks like Greg Hardy, Justin Houston and Cliff Avril stuck out in my mind. I went for a three-year sample size, which is hardly conclusive but it at least gave me a decent idea of trends - which is all I really wanted. It's not like I'm getting paid to research this stuff.

As with every bit of research, I had to create a standard to measure against. I chose 10 sacks. I chose 10 sacks not because it's definitive as much as it is readily identified in even the most basic football circles as having been a good season getting after the passer.

As tends to happen, my mind was deceiving me. I actually found out that the best chance at drafting a 10-sack guy happened in the first round. That alone wasn't as surprising as the overwhelming majority represented by that round. In each of the past three seasons, more 10-sack players were drafted in the first round than in every other round combined. Even if you added UFA to the other rounds, first-rounders still out-sacked the lesser-hyped folks.

Here are my results:

2016 10 sacks or more
Beasley 1st round
Miller 1
Alexander UFA
Golden 2
Hunter 3
Avril 3
Wake UFA
Walden 6
Kerrigan 1
C Jones 1
Perry 1
Mack 1
Orakpo 1
Bosa 1
Ford 1
Clark 2
TOTALS: 9 in 1st Round, 2 in 2nd, 2 in 3rd, 1 in 6th and 2 UFA.

2015
Watt 1
Mack 1
Ansah 1
Dunlap 2
C Jones 1
Wilkerson 1
Mercilus 1
Atkins 4
Miller 1
Donald 1
Short 2
Peppers 1
Griffen 4
Ingram 1
C Jordan 1
Bennett UFA
TOTALS: 11 in 1st Round, 2 in 2nd, 2 in 4th, 1 UFA

2014
Houston 3
Watt 1
Dumervil 4
M Williams 1
Barwin 2
Miller 1
Kerrigan 1
Pierre-Paul 1
Griffen 4
Suggs 1
Wake UFA
Kruger 2
C Matthews 1
Quinn 1
Dareus 1
W Young 7
Ware 1
Galette UFA
TOTALS: 10 in 1st round, 2 in 2nd, 1 in 3rd, 2 in 4th, 1 in 7th and 2 UFA.

Yes, many thanks my friend, fine job!

 

[tm1119]

So you're saying good players get drafted early...crazy breaking news here.

Just kidding, not trying to be a jerk because that was good work by OP but how many positions would be different? Probably RB and OG/OC but not many of them go in the 1st to begin with.

 

[Hardline]

This is precisely why I have been saying all along that we are going DE with the first pick. No brainer. .02

Depends on who's still on the board. It could as well be Njoku or Cory Davis.

 

[Pants]

Depends on who's still on the board. It could as well be Njoku or Cory Davis.

I don't see Njoku being there, but I run the card up if he is, despite defensive needs

 

[masomenos]

Justis Mosqueda has done a lot of research on this. He took data from 2005-2014 drafts and looked at how many pass rushers / EDGE players were able to generate 3+ seasons of 5+ sacks. The numbers:

1st Rd 1-16: 16 of 29 players 55%
1st Rd 17-32: 8 of 23 players 35%
2nd Rd: 4 of 37 players 11%
3rd Rd: 5 of 29 players 17%

 

[GhostOfPelluer]

So you're saying good players get drafted early...crazy breaking news here.

Just kidding, not trying to be a jerk because that was good work by OP but how many positions would be different? Probably RB and OG/OC but not many of them go in the 1st to begin with.

I would like to see what positions are similar/different. Some are obvious, like G, C, TE, K, P. I'm guessing MLB/ILB, RB, too. Maybe I should do WR, that could be interesting.

 

[GhostOfPelluer]

Justis Mosqueda has done a lot of research on this. He took data from 2005-2014 drafts and looked at how many pass rushers / EDGE players were able to generate 3+ seasons of 5+ sacks. The numbers:

1st Rd 1-16: 16 of 29 players 55%
1st Rd 17-32: 8 of 23 players 35%
2nd Rd: 4 of 37 players 11%
3rd Rd: 5 of 29 players 17%

That's great info. So even at 28 we shouldn't get our hopes up.

 

[AsthmaField]

That's great info. So even at 28 we shouldn't get our hopes up.

Right, which is why I'm fully expecting the pick at 28 to be in the secondary. I think there will be much better players available there at our pick.