Dr. Z says Vikes win it all - 6/20/08

dcfanatic

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http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/writers/dr_z/06/20/vikings/index.html?bcnn=yes


Dare I pick Minnesota to win it all?

Last year, I locked in my Super Bowl pick early and felt very good about the choice. For once, I wasn't trying to do a roster breakdown or getting myself up all tied up in strengths and weaknesses.

I was looking for a team with a chip on its shoulder, one that would be coming into the season with something to prove, a hungry team, nasty, etc.

The Saints were my Super Bowl winner.

Then they came out and lost their first four. And finished 7-9. All of which should make Brad Childress feel very nervous about the fact that I'm picking his Vikings to ... to ... dare I say, to win it all? Let's think this thing through.

Dallas is the winter-book favorite. The Cowboys are loading up with all sorts of fancy names -- Zach Thomas, who has already carved out a place for himself in Miami's Hall of Fame, 'Pacman' Jones, whose pardon from the league office seems to be coming an inch at a time. Marion Barber got a new contract that stunned him by its magnificence. So did cornerback Terence Newman. They even gave Terrell Owens enough money to make him happy.

This is their year, right? Sorry, but I just don't feel it.

I look around the league, from the perspective of an individual coming off a nice, fat vacation, and I see the usual summer notes of unsettlement.

Oakland's Javon Walker, who should be trying to prove himself after Denver became the second team to give up on him, was found unconscious in a Vegas alley after he had supposedly spent the evening spraying nightclub patrons with bubbly.

"And they got mad at ME for carrying a gun," said the Cowboys Tank Johnson, who got busted by the league for building a home arsenal.

Once again, Jeremy Shockey is pouting for the Super Bowl Giants, their wideout, Plaxico Burress, is unhappy with his contract. The team is in a mid-June disarray mode. People look at the almost-unbeaten Patriots, expecting to see cheat sheets falling out of their pockets. Elsewhere there are ... but why go on? This is about my Super Bowl team, right? And why I have such positive views about the Vikings.

Dare I pick them to go all the way? They're a team for whom I never had much of a feel, and this goes back to their old Super Bowl days, when they were marched to the slaughter by any AFL or AFC team they faced. They're a team that turned timid and blew the NFC Championship game against Atlanta in '99, and then, two seasons later, brought a powerhouse offense into Giants Stadium for the same title match and got undressed, 41-0.

Since then? One playoff season out of the next seven. So why do I get this real hunch about them? OK, yeah, right now they're my choice for the winner of Supe XXIII.

And here's why:

Let's get down to basics. Run the ball. Stop the run. Best in the league at both last year. I can't help it -- I'm hooked on the fundamentals. Their middle triangle of tackles Kevin and Pat Williams, backed up by E.J. Henderson, is classic, and now there's a serious element added to that mix.

A trade with the Chiefs brought them defensive end Jared Allen in April. He brings with him the 2007 NFL sack title, plus a two-game DUI suspension at the beginning of the year. A gamble? Childress says no. Allen says he's on the wagon.

"I'd be very surprised if he has any trouble in that area from now on," the coach says. "We're talking about a very bright, engaging person. When his plane came in here, our defensive line coach and both defensive tackles all went to pick him up at the airport."

It's almost a miracle to get a guy like that in a trade. Sack specialists are like diamonds, and Allen's a young one -- only 26 years old! And he's not one of those wild-angle loopers who leaves a couple of acres inside for the runners.

He's a technician who honors the down home of the game.

In the offseason, when I was carrying on with my, "That's it...all the pieces are in place," rant, a few negative voices were heard. "Why," I was asked, "did Allen's production usually fall off in the second half?" And my answer was because he was on the field too much. The way the game is now, no defensive lineman, especially an edge rusher with a high motor, can do it without relief. And the Chiefs kept Allen on the field.

"We're more what I would call a wave rushing team," Childress says. "If we dress eight defensive linemen, they'll all play. Jared's gonna be in there, sure, but I'm not going to sit Brian Robinson, who plays behind him.

"There's no shame to putting your hand up when you're tired and have to come out. Of course, if you're going to be standing on the sideline next to the coach on every critical down, there's going to be a problem."

Pass rush begets pass defense, which begets better statistics than the Vikings had last year, one of their big failings. They finished last in yards allowed. Where's the fix there? Madieu Williams, an active free safety for the Bengals last year. Charlie Gordon, a good, quick, free agent cornerback.

I get the feeling that I haven't convinced anybody yet. How about the league's flashiest runner in '07, Adrian Peterson, working behind, arguably, the best run blocking left side of the line in the NFL, Bryant McKinnie and Steve Hutchinson? It's a what? A nice try? How about their new wideout, Bernard Berrian, the Bears' only big league receiver last year in a one-receiver offense. OK, I saw you shrug.

And I know where we're headed. Tarvaris Jackson, QB. Just 25 years old.

Fine athlete, terrific scrambler, able to make big plays, but so far in his two years in the league, not enough of them. Sixth from the bottom among the ranked passers last year. When does it happen? Third year? Fourth? Not at all?

"How long?" Childress says. "I talked to Rich Gannon, who used to quarterback this team, and he told me, 'Every day you don't know more about what you don't know.'

"What can I tell you about Tavaris? Well, a quarterback has to be wired the right way, and he's wired that way. He doesn't show that he's sweating. The physical skills are there, but then there's another thing. There's a mantle to being the starting quarterback. Matt Schaub found it out last year.

"Besides the production, there's something to walking into the building every day and being the man. I mean every day. Tavaris is pretty good with that."

There aren't many better situations for a young quarterback than the one in which Jackson now finds himself. Childress played the position. He coached on the offensive side for 29 years before getting his head coaching shot at Minnesota two seasons ago. For seven years he was the Eagles QB coach and offensive coordinator. Donovan McNabb made the Pro Bowl in five of those years. When McNabb was hurt during the 2002 season, Childress' offense set a team record for points, using three starting quarterbacks. In 2005, when McNabb tried to struggle on with a sports hernia, Childress practically talked him through it.

"I told him that when those legs go, you're going to have to learn to rely on other things," the coach says. "You've got to evolve. It's like a wounded animal. All the other senses are heightened. And he went out and had some of his most accurate games, passing the ball.

"When I got the job here, well, in my wildest dreams I didn't think I was going to have to get rid of a franchise quarterback. But after three weeks in the spring, it was just obvious that it wasn't going to work, with Daunte Culpepper. So I replaced him, and everybody pilloried us.

"Daunte was a guy who always used his legs. He wasn't an anticipatory thrower. He had to see the whites of their eyes. And once he got hurt, well, coming back from the injury, he couldn't play that way."

Well, could this be the year that Tarvaris Jackson takes the Vikings the whole way, under a coach who can do everything for the position except throw the ball? I kind of think so. There's a storybook angle here, older coach, young quarterback, as the troops rally round.

"As a franchise quarterback, there's the matter of the work ethic, putting in your hours," Childress says. "Tarvaris knows that, how important it is that people see you working when they come in. Is he in the right place for a guy evolving? Yeah, I'm convinced he's got what it takes.

"We just have to see how he does on the field."

So en fin, do I like the Vikings to go all the way? Well, yeah, why not? A feeling of destiny, that's what I sense about Brad Childress and his baby quarterback.
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If Tavaris Jackson wins a Super Bowl before Tony Romo I give up.
 

reddyuta

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haha-this guy should stick to debating against models.
 

Sonny#9

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Did he mention he was wearing an onion on his belt as was the style at the time?

The only thing he just assured the Vikings is that they won't make the playoffs.
 

bbgun

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Considering the neophyte at QB, their defense would have to be Ravenesque or Bearsesque in order for this to happen. They are a playoff calibre team, however.
 

bobtheflob

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There always seems to be one team every year that every analyst tends to pick as their "darkhorse" team. It's always a team that was decent the year before and made some big free agent acquisitions. Every year that team fails to live up to expectations.

Last year it was the 49ers. The year before it was Arizona. This year it will be the Vikings.
 

Stash

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Wondering if Dr Z still feels that former Cowboys' cornerback Mario Edwards is 'Pro Bowl material'?

I can't understand how this bozo still has a job.

He's either making bad football predictions or writing about vacations with his wife.......
 

bootsy

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I am GLAD he didn't pick us. Dude is always wrong with his picks. It's like a curse or something.
 

Chocolate Lab

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I like Dr. Z, but even more basic than "run the ball and stop the run" is that the game is about the quarterback. And Tavaris Jackson doesn't qualify.

Now if Minny had any kind of a QB? Then sure. The Vikes have really built a good team other than that.
 

LittleBoyBlue

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The only thing right in the OP thread is there will be a "Z" involved with the Winnders.


ZACK THOMAS!
 

junk

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Chocolate Lab;2123994 said:
I like Dr. Z, but even more basic than "run the ball and stop the run" is that the game is about the quarterback. And Tavaris Jackson doesn't qualify.

Now if Minny had any kind of a QB? Then sure. The Vikes have really built a good team other than that.

The team's success certainly hinges on the QB play. Jackson hasn't impressed me yet, but there have been quite a few young QBs that took a couple years to get it.

They certainly have the defense and the running game. Their wide receivers are pretty suspect though.

Anyway, I sincerely hope they have a disappointing season. Vikings fans are unbearable when they are winning.
 

AMERICAS_FAN

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Dr. Z is basing this on the Vikes' ability to run the ball and stop the run. But this NFL is based on the passing-offense and teams that do that well have a good shot at a Super Bowl, while teams who struggle at it are long-shots. The Vikes are not good at it; in fact they are 1-dimensional on offense.

Put simply, Dr. Z is way off on his prediction because the Vikes have NO WRs to speak of. Yes, Dr. Z brings up the Vikes' aquiring Bernard Berrian from the Bears as a WR upgrade, and then says "OK, I saw you shrug" when saying that. Dr. Z is wrong again. I didn't shrug at that; it was more like "throwing up in my mouth" and LMAO when I heard the name Bernard Berrian :puke: :lmao2:
 

CoCo

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I'm not going to go so far as to say it could NOT happen for the Vikes this year because you need only look at the Giants last year to realize the unexpected CAN happen.

But what it boils down to for Dr Z is he has a feeling. There is a lot to like about the Vikes individual components but I find it ridiculous to actually "predict" they'll get to the Super Bowl much less win it. It makes no logical sense to predict that with their QB situation.
 

EMMITTnROY

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i've been saying all off-season long that the NFC Championship game is going to be the Cowboys over the Vikings..

sure, their QB is horrid.. but Peterson is incredible, he can single handedly win games.. they have a great O-line, and that defense could be really, really good this year.. they have enough talent to beat the likes of the Packers for the division, and the Seahawks and Giants, etc, in the playoffs.. remember, they absolutely murdered the Giants in the regular season last year..
 

Seven

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Is this guy ever right? I believe he picked against Dallas both times they played the Bills in the SB's. HOW he has a job is maddening.........

BTW The Vikes are a pretty good team. No a SB team, however
 

Boysboy

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EMMITTnROY;2124021 said:
i've been saying all off-season long that the NFC Championship game is going to be the Cowboys over the Vikings..

sure, their QB is horrid.. but Peterson is incredible, he can single handedly win games.. they have a great O-line, and that defense could be really, really good this year.. they have enough talent to beat the likes of the Packers for the division, and the Seahawks and Giants, etc, in the playoffs.. remember, they absolutely murdered the Giants in the regular season last year..

If anything-Bernard Berrian's presence may have opposing D's think twice about stacking the box to stop AD.

Tavaris may suck, but an added extra weapon like BB may improve his game.
 
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