Draft 2012: The Overrated

[RS12]

Every year leading up to the draft, certain prospects seem ticketed for specific teams or to be taken highly due to groupthink, publicity, and name recognition. These predictions may or may not pan out. Usually, they don’t, and that’s what makes the NFL draft so enticing: suspense and unpredictability.

Detailed below are ten players I feel are currently being overrated, overhyped, or overvalued by media members. I’ve done extensive film study on each, and my opinions are not based on statistics, college awards, or conventional wisdom. Presently, I believe these players are receiving too much positive attention in media evaluations and mock drafts.

All 40 times and heights/weights for non-senior prospects are projected.

Overrated:

1. Oklahoma State WR Justin Blackmon (6-1/215/4.54) - Blackmon has a fair argument to be the first receiver drafted, but the door is more wide open than it appears. He simply isn’t a vertical threat, securing a vast majority of his receptions within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. Blackmon made a living dominating smaller, slower, less physical Big 12 cornerbacks thanks to consistent five- and seven-yard cushions at the snap, allowing quick completions and easy conversions on curl routes. Blackmon's catch radius and ability to adjust his body positioning are major pluses, but he is not an elite prospect in the vein of A.J. Green or Julio Jones. Downfield playmaking ability is a necessity for any receiver worth a top-ten pick. I am not overlooking Blackmon's capacity to use the sideline, or his strength at the catch point, but he is a limited receiver from a skill standpoint and hardly a surefire top-five pick.

2. LSU DT Michael Brockers (6-5/306/4.95) - A handful of draftnik types named Brockers the 2012 class' top defensive tackle as soon as he declared as a redshirt sophomore. I just don't see it. Brockers plays young and raw, meaning he does not effectively use his length to create leverage or separation. Brockers faced constant single blocks as part of a vaunted LSU front, but showed little burst or quickness to beat guards, rather grinding out his limited QB pressures with sheer leg drive. Brockers has a strong lower half to anchor versus the run, but plays high off the snap and fails to use his arms or hands. To invest a top-20 selection on a player whose lone strength is upside, I'd at least want him to "flash" somewhat regularly. Brockers rarely does that.

3. Arizona State ILB Vontaze Burfict (6-2/250/4.67) - Burfict is a physical specimen with great closing speed when stalking running backs. He can end plays with crushing hits. Burfict obviously possesses athleticism and power for the Mike linebacker position, but he is lacking in every other category.

http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/nfl/39879/60/draft-2012-the-overrated

 

[supercowboy8]

I agree with everything but Blackmon, he is a freak.

 

[tm1119]

Highly disagree with Blackmon. Not every WR has to run a 4.4 flat 40 to be successful. He reminds me of a T.O. clone. A stocky and explosive WR that is great with the ball in his hands. Hes a threat to take it to the house every time he touches the ball. He may not be able to consistently beat CB's over the top, but hes going to kill them with slants and curls because most wont tackle him 1 on 1.

 

[TheCount]

I gotta say, I don't get the Brockers love myself. Maybe I just haven't watched enough of him.

 

[realtick]

I always liked Blackmon but was skeptical about how he projected as a pro. Having watched him even close this past season I'm convinced this guy is the real deal.

I'm also a fan of OT Mike Adams.

Many of the other names mentioned there may be some truth to. I was laughing when many draft websites had Alshon Jeffrey going Top 10 a few weeks ago.

 

[Cowboys&LakersFan]

Easily Blackmon.

 

[realtick]

Highly disagree with Blackmon. Not every WR has to run a 4.4 flat 40 to be successful. He reminds me of a T.O. clone. A stocky and explosive WR that is great with the ball in his hands. Hes a threat to take it to the house every time he touches the ball. He may not be able to consistently beat CB's over the top, but hes going to kill them with slants and curls because most wont tackle him 1 on 1.

You know, I hate making the easy convienent comparison and I thought for awhile I was just seeing things with Blackmon and TO, but Blackmon really does remind me of a slightly smaller TO. For a long time I compared him to Koren Robinson. He's just too eerily similiar to TO in his playing style and ability though.

 

[CCBoy]

realtick, I really like this player: Arizona State ILB Vontaze Burfict. He's a linebacker first. Give me some of your view on him. Could he move outside and be effective as well?

 

[gmoney112]

realtick, I really like this player: Arizona State ILB Vontaze Burfict. He's a linebacker first. Give me some of your view on him. Could he move outside and be effective as well?

He's not even effective as an ILB. He probably won't be drafted until the 3rd round.

 

[Gaede]

Yeah, I really don't understand why Brockers is so highly rated, either

 

[jobberone]

I always liked Blackmon but was skeptical about how he projected as a pro. Having watched him even close this past season I'm convinced this guy is the real deal.

I'm also a fan of OT Mike Adams.

Many of the other names mentioned there may be some truth to. I was laughing when many draft websites had Alshon Jeffrey going Top 10 a few weeks ago.

I don't think Jeffrey belongs in the top ten but somewhere in the top 60. Just where I don't know. I think he could be another Plaxico without the baggage but I'm not certain. He does get separation at times. And he can run by you if you're not on your toes. And in the bowl game he was hurt so you can't use that game as any indicator. I do think he is of the long legged long stride WR who isn't going to dazzle you with quicks and bigtime breaks. But he will catch the ball. He does need to learn to use his body. I think if he applies himself he can be a very effective possession type of WR who can occasionally get behind you.

 

[realtick]

realtick, I really like this player: Arizona State ILB Vontaze Burfict. He's a linebacker first. Give me some of your view on him. Could he move outside and be effective as well?

I don't think you'll like my answer CC. Like most folks I was really intrigued by Burfict from his 2010 season and looked forward with anticipation to see how he'd continue to improve in 2011.

Like I'm sure you do, I love Burfict's aggression on the field and his I-wanna-hurt-you style of play; I think that's the way linebacker has to be played. The after whistle penalties and untimely/uneeded flags he gets doesn't bother me too much, it's the stuff he does (or doesn't do actually) between the whistles that bothers me.

In 2011, I saw a guy who was straight up loafing around and looked completely disintrested. Living on the west coast, I got to see four or five of his games this year (DVR'd them but have since deleted), and that was the consistent theme of his play. He would half-heartedly take-on a block, allow a runner to get around him without any effort to close the angle/edge. If by chance the play went past him, the Sun Devil defense may have well been playing with 10 players instead of 11; he was completely disinterested in backside pursuit.

I watched him take horrible angles to the ball carrier. Now I'm not sure if that was because of him loafing to the play, or if it was a lack of instincts. Either way, his production in 2011 was really disappointing. You look at a guy like Kuechly from Boston College who nearly tripled Burfict's tackle totals this year (191 vs. 69), and that's despite playing two less games than Vontaze.

A lot of folks have rationalized Burfict's obvious poor performance this year to him supposedly playing "cautious to avoid penalties," but I don't buy it. He was still commiting penalties and was even suspended by his own team in their final game. Beyond that, lack of effort or bad motor is a huge red flag in my book. We all love guys like Sean Lissemore who give 100% on every play for a reason. Conversely, I'm not fond of guys who don't.

His aggresive style of play is something this team needs. Unfortunately, I don't think this team needs Vontaze Burfict, the player. We have a young inside linebacker core (and that's where I think he'll play) that doesn't need the added responsibility of baby-sitting. He likely needs a team with a Ray Lewis, London Fletcher or Bart Scott to school him. As much as I like Sean Lee, I think he may be too young in his tenure to command Burfict's respect.

Bottomline, IMO, I wouldn't touch Burfict with anything higher than a 4th round pick.

 

[CCBoy]

I don't think you'll like my answer CC. Like most folks I was really intrigued by Burfict from his 2010 season and looked forward with anticipation to see how he'd continue to improve in 2011.

Like I'm sure you do, I love Burfict's aggression on the field and his I-wanna-hurt-you style of play; I think that's the way linebacker has to be played. The after whistle penalties and untimely/uneeded flags he gets doesn't bother me too much, it's the stuff he does (or doesn't do actually) between the whistles that bothers me.

In 2011, I saw a guy who was straight up loafing around and looked completely disintrested. Living on the west coast, I got to see four or five of his games this year (DVR'd them but have since deleted), and that was the consistent theme of his play. He would half-heartedly take-on a block, allow a runner to get around him without any effort to close the angle/edge. If by chance the play went past him, the Sun Devil defense may have well been playing with 10 players instead of 11; he was completely disinterested in backside pursuit.

I watched him take horrible angles to the ball carrier. Now I'm not sure if that was because of him loafing to the play, or if it was a lack of instincts. Either way, his production in 2011 was really disappointing. You look at a guy like Kuechly from Boston College who nearly tripled Burfict's tackle totals this year (191 vs. 69), and that's despite playing two less games than Vontaze.

A lot of folks have rationalized Burfict's obvious poor performance this year to him supposedly playing "cautious to avoid penalties," but I don't buy it. He was still commiting penalties and was even suspended by his own team in their final game. Beyond that, lack of effort or bad motor is a huge red flag in my book. We all love guys like Sean Lissemore who give 100% on every play for a reason. Conversely, I'm not fond of guys who don't.

His aggresive style of play is something this team needs. Unfortunately, I don't think this team needs Vontaze Burfict, the player. We have a young inside linebacker core (and that's where I think he'll play) that doesn't need the added responsibility of baby-sitting. He likely needs a team with a Ray Lewis, London Fletcher or Bart Scott to school him. As much as I like Sean Lee, I think he may be too young in his tenure to command Burfict's respect.

Bottomline, IMO, I wouldn't touch Burfict with anything higher than a 4th round pick.

I have never been high on the kid...but I do like an aggressive linebacker. I was tinkering with his explosive potential. And thirst to make a defining statement with a hit. That part isn't all bad. I was curious as to a role as an OLB and his previously demonstrated ability to get to a quarterback. That defines my curiosity here.

My preference in the draft at linebacker is simply, Buechly. He is a tackling machine and with great interior linebacker instinct. He would marry at the hip with Sean Lee in a 4-3 interior for a decade. He would be my first round choice...even if in free agency, Dallas could and did only pay for a Mario Williams as the upgrade there.

And thank so much for addressing the topic deeply as you did.

 

[realtick]

I don't think Jeffrey belongs in the top ten but somewhere in the top 60. Just where I don't know. I think he could be another Plaxico without the baggage but I'm not certain. He does get separation at times. And he can run by you if you're not on your toes. And in the bowl game he was hurt so you can't use that game as any indicator. I do think he is of the long legged long stride WR who isn't going to dazzle you with quicks and bigtime breaks. But he will catch the ball. He does need to learn to use his body. I think if he applies himself he can be a very effective possession type of WR who can occasionally get behind you.

I don't think he's a scrub by any means, but like you said I definitely don't think he's a Top 10 draft pick. He has a good chance of going in the Top 60 or 70 (1-2 rounds), but this combine is going to be huge for him. I think he's gotta be somewhere in the 4.5 (low 4.6 max) range to solidify his status.

The player that comes to mind everytime I watch him is former Oklahoma St. star, Adarius Bowman. They are both very similiar in size and style of play. All of the critiques you gave him are on par with what I see as well. There's some holes to his game but there are elements that he has that can be used right away in the NFL game that will help someone immediately...height/size, ball skills, jumping ability.

 

[realtick]

I have never been high on the kid...but I do like an aggressive linebacker. I was tinkering with his explosive potential. And thirst to make a defining statement with a hit. That part isn't all bad. I was curious as to a role as an OLB and his previously demonstrated ability to get to a quarterback. That defines my curiosity here.

My preference in the draft at linebacker is simply, Buechly. He is a tackling machine and with great interior linebacker instinct. He would marry at the hip with Sean Lee in a 4-3 interior for a decade. He would be my first round choice...even if in free agency, Dallas could and did only pay for a Mario Williams as the upgrade there.

And thank so much for addressing the topic deeply as you did.

Yeah, I'm definitely onboard with bringing a tougher mentality/edge to this defensive crew.

Kuechly is impressive for sure.

 

[realtick]

Except Bowman has never played a snap in the NFL? Based on your analysis he should be an UDFA.

"They are both very similiar in size and style of play..."

Are they not similiar in size?

Did you ever watch Bowman play?

They are both physical receivers that are at their best with the ball over their heads and when they can put their body between the ball and the defender and out muscle them.

Now, if you think the only rational conclusion based off of those two observations is that Jeffery "should be a UDFA," you're silly.

Thanks for playin'

 

[gmoney112]

"They are both very similiar in size and style of play..."

Are they not similiar in size?

Did you ever watch Bowman play?

They are both physical receivers that are at their best with the ball over their heads and when they can put their body between the ball and the defender and out muscle them.

Now, if you think the only rational conclusion based off of those two observations is that Jeffery "should be a UDFA," you're silly.

Thanks for playin'

Misread. Have since deleted original post. My beezy.

 

[realtick]

Misread. Have since deleted original post. My beezy.

No biggie. I'd delete my post too but it's past the 15 minute window.

 

[CCBoy]

No biggie. I'd delete my post too but it's past the 15 minute window.

I understand why the 15 minute thing, but I'd still like to go back and corrected butchered phrases or misspellings...such as Kuechly, for Buechly.

 

[realtick]

I understand why the 15 minute thing, but I'd still like to go back and corrected butchered phrases or misspellings...such as Kuechly, for Buechly.

Hey, it would make the ultimate LB...Kuechly + Burfict = Buechly

Lol