Draft Evaluation Misses

[McKDaddy]

The recent release of Maurice Hurst and the Pet Cat thread got me thinking about just how many recent draft picks have failed to meet the "concensus" value assigned by pre draft rankings.

Excluding QB's here are some that you probably remember from discussions on this board.
Vernon Hargreaves
Sheldon Rankins
Corey Coleman
Josh Doctson
Maurice Hurst
Robert Nkemdiche
Solomon Thomas
John Ross
Malik Hooker
Gareon Conley
Charles Harris
Reuben Foster
Taven Bryan
Mike Hughes
Clelin Ferrell
Rashan Gary
Andre Dillard

I have to admit I thought some of these would be better than they have shown thus far.

My takeaways are:
1) Failure to acknowledge "risk" is the prime ingredient for disaster
2) Level of competition matters. Not just the school or the conference but who did the player match up against.
3) Projecting a player to improve is dangerous. (And if it happens, often takes time)
4) Projecting a player to improve significantly is a mistake. (correct fundamental flaws, etc.)
5) Only allow measurables to influence your grade by a small %.
6) Good attitude\strong desire to be good will offset some lack of physical talent.
7) Poor attitude\not wanting to be good will erase immense physical talent.
8) Remember Parcell's QB rules. The principles will help you stay balanced in your evaluation of all positions.

Finalize your boards & hope the Cowboys get their evaluations correct!

 

[Fastpitch Dad]

Great idea and post!

I thought Robert Nkemdiche was going to be a big time player. Quite a few on that list I thought were going to be good pros.

 

[timb2]

Robert Nkemdiche I thought could turn it around also.. He had the talent just no motivation.

That list I wasn't high on most, but I have had my failures too that I liked

Antonio Garcia OT UTEP. He hadn't allowed a sack in almost 1000 snaps including shutting down Shaq Lawson & Kevin Dodd from Clemson. He unfortunately had some rare disease that messed with him physically was found.

Christian Sam MLB Arizona State. Big 250 lbs,4.6 forty .A headhunter who like to hit. He came at the time the NFL wanted to eliminate these types of players because of CTE.

Bucky Hodges TE Virginia Tech . 6-7,259 lbs TE who ran a 4.5 forty,what I didn't know had a history of concussions

Taylor Mays S USC. Was to be the next Ronnie Lott. Ran a 4.2 at 230 lbs Most dangerous hitter, famed play knocking out two players on one hit in college I think the NFL made sure he wasn't going to get a chance to blow people up because the CTE lawsuit.

 

[kskboys]

I'm always trying to figure out what makes players bust, and often it's obvious, but man sometimes there's just no way to predict it.

There were a host of pass rushers taken before Taco in that draft, and I think all of them except Miles Garrett busted. Remember Takkarist McKinley? Man, he sounded good, had all the tools. Far as I know, he's done nothing. ATL finally dumped him for running his mouth.

 

[jrumann59]

Lets not forget Sharif Floyd, with all the hand wringing here when Dallas passed on him.

 

[fivetwos]

Draft picks don't pan out at a rate that many would not have guessed.

Ive posted this in another thread but it fits here...

I used the 2017 draft and the nine previous, with hit vs miss criteria as having made one pro bowl. I eliminated guys that made it for ST, but counted all alternates as hits....

The hit/miss rate for picks 1-16 is 50%, and down to 25% for the bottom half.

The second round is a stunning 10%, half that in the 3rd...and around 1% thereafter.

It's not a perfect way to judge a player....as it does not reward useful players that haven't made Pro Bowls, but it does show how very few of these guys become high end starters.

People this time of year fill out mocks that address all "needs" when realistically teams should be happy to get 1-2 of these guys that didn't not pan out.

 

[Creeper]

The recent release of Maurice Hurst and the Pet Cat thread got me thinking about just how many recent draft picks have failed to meet the "concensus" value assigned by pre draft rankings.

Excluding QB's here are some that you probably remember from discussions on this board.
Vernon Hargreaves
Sheldon Rankins
Corey Coleman
Josh Doctson
Maurice Hurst
Robert Nkemdiche
Solomon Thomas
John Ross
Malik Hooker
Gareon Conley
Charles Harris
Reuben Foster
Taven Bryan
Mike Hughes
Clelin Ferrell
Rashan Gary
Andre Dillard

I have to admit I thought some of these would be better than they have shown thus far.

My takeaways are:
1) Failure to acknowledge "risk" is the prime ingredient for disaster
2) Level of competition matters. Not just the school or the conference but who did the player match up against.
3) Projecting a player to improve is dangerous. (And if it happens, often takes time)
4) Projecting a player to improve significantly is a mistake. (correct fundamental flaws, etc.)
5) Only allow measurables to influence your grade by a small %.
6) Good attitude\strong desire to be good will offset some lack of physical talent.
7) Poor attitude\not wanting to be good will erase immense physical talent.
8) Remember Parcell's QB rules. The principles will help you stay balanced in your evaluation of all positions.

Finalize your boards & hope the Cowboys get their evaluations correct!

We "outsiders" can only evaluate players based on what we see - their Combine results (or pro-day), highlight videos, and occasionally game films for some. The difficulty is evaluating them against top talent and how they respond to the challenges of facing top competitors. Many college guys get by on talent and physical traits alone because they are not facing top talent in every game. Dominating William & Mary is a lot different than facing an NFL team every week. Still we can see some guys stand head and shoulders over the rest.

But then there is another factor we have no way of evaluating from where we stand. Yogi Berra said "baseball is 90% mental, and the other half is physical". I think this applies to football too. Jimmy Johnson said he never wanted to draft dumb players. But its more than just intelligence, although I think that is a big part of it. It is also attitude, competitiveness, motivation, and pride. We have no good way of evaluating these traits in a player. Some CBs for example, struggle as rookies and it ruins them. Others take up the challenge and it motivates them. I think the trick is not to get too enamored with the physical traits at the expense of ignoring the mental traits.

I look at Emmitt Smith as a great example of a man who was never going to fail. He was not the most gifted RB, but he was stronger mentally than any body on the field.

 

[McKDaddy]

I'm always trying to figure out what makes players bust, and often it's obvious, but man sometimes there's just no way to predict it.

Yep. so much is in the heart & head.

 

[McKDaddy]

We "outsiders" can only evaluate players based on what we see - their Combine results (or pro-day), highlight videos, and occasionally game films for some. The difficulty is evaluating them against top talent and how they respond to the challenges of facing top competitors. Many college guys get by on talent and physical traits alone because they are not facing top talent in every game. Dominating William & Mary is a lot different than facing an NFL team every week. Still we can see some guys stand head and shoulders over the rest.

We are absolutely at a disadvantage. Competition level is huge. I wasn't as high as others on Okudah last year for that reason alone. I just wasn't sure the QB's & receivers he faced were a good measuring stick. He may still figure it out but I think he was clearly not ready for what the NFL offers on every snap. Conversely I think Surtain has been tested and will not be overwhelmed. I think his floor is very safe.

 

[gimmesix]

The recent release of Maurice Hurst and the Pet Cat thread got me thinking about just how many recent draft picks have failed to meet the "concensus" value assigned by pre draft rankings.

Excluding QB's here are some that you probably remember from discussions on this board.
Vernon Hargreaves
Sheldon Rankins
Corey Coleman
Josh Doctson
Maurice Hurst
Robert Nkemdiche
Solomon Thomas
John Ross
Malik Hooker
Gareon Conley
Charles Harris
Reuben Foster
Taven Bryan
Mike Hughes
Clelin Ferrell
Rashan Gary
Andre Dillard

I can truly say that none of those was one of my pet cats. And I can falsely say that all of my pet cats turned out to be great players.

 

[beware_d-ware]

Going back through Wikipedia to jog my memory a bit...

Quincy Wilson was my CB2 back in 2017, like right behind Marshon Lattimore. He's either out of the league now or really close to it.

Josh Rosen was my QB1 back in 2018. Oops.

I thought Kevin White was better than Amari Cooper.

Noah Spence was the truth and we should have picked him in the 2nd over Jaylon.

John Ross was a 4.22 dude that could actually play football and was going to ball the hell out.

Cordrea Tankersley was a borderline 1st round talent.

Why did we pick Travis Frederick when Matt Elam was still on the board.

 

[Floatyworm]

It comes down to this...2 things.....Injury....and scheme fit. A lot of those guys got hurt....and probably deserve a 2nd chance. Others....were asked to do things they were uncomfortable doing. See it all the time in this league....doesn't mean they were busts.