Yep. No way a QB is going #1 to Miami. They just spent their high second on Beck last year. They're not going QB again this year.
Jenkins will never fall as far as 22, at least I don't think we'll see anything like that unless he has a horrible individual workout and/or combine.
I don't know about anyone reaching for Reggie Smith in round 1. He might wind up being a gem but, IMO, the risk is too high to use a 1 on him.