Draft Order 12/9

[supercowboy8]

Do you think the league is suddenly going to change the schedule? The Bucs are definitely going to play the Packers, and the Packers' wins and losses to date will definitely be included in the Bucs strength of schedule. You can't put in future results, but you can certainly account for the results to date of future opponents.

No that's point. The titans still play the jets and jags. The won loss column will change. If the to and beat the jets and jags they aren't the 1 seed then. So you can't take the teams records today and then go by strength of schedule for all 16 games. They haven't played all 16 yet. Teams are going to win and lose by then.

The nfl link is the correct current draft order.

 

[Hostile]

So your doing


So you putting in games that hasn't van happened yet? So how is this even a thing. What if the titans beat the jets or jags.
Your isn't accurate at all.

Sorry but I thought this was the current draft order. You can't put in games that hasn't happened.

So what the lottery numbers going to be

The schedule is going to change? The tie breaker is based upon the strength of the schedule. I am calculating the entire schedule. The Titans are still playing the Jets and the Jaguars who are both 2-11. Indy is 9-4. That is 13-26 for their remaining schedule.

Meanwhile the Buccaneers will play the Panthers, Packers and Saints. That is 4-8-1, 10-3, and 5-8 for 19-19-1. Those 6 games make a difference in the final schedule. If both teams lose out who is going to pick first? The answer is the Titans.

Thus my list is more accurate.

 

[Hostile]

No that's point. The titans still play the jets and jags. The won loss column will change. If the to and beat the jets and jags they aren't the 1 seed then. So you can't take the teams records today and then go by strength of schedule for all 16 games. They haven't played all 16 yet. Teams are going to win and lose by then.

The nfl link is the correct current draft order.

Yes, the wins and losses column will change. That is what makes my point for me. If they end up with the same number of wins, which team is going to have the weaker schedule and will therefore pick first?

Tennessee.

Therefore, that order is not correct due to how they are calculating it.

 

[JD_KaPow]

No that's point. The titans still play the jets and jags. The won loss column will change. If the to and beat the jets and jags they aren't the 1 seed then. So you can't take the teams records today and then go by strength of schedule for all 16 games. They haven't played all 16 yet. Teams are going to win and lose by then.

The nfl link is the correct current draft order.

First of all, there's no such thing as the "correct current draft order"; it's a meaningless phrase. The draft order is only determined when the season ends. Second, of course the list will change as new results come in. But the Packers did in fact beat the Falcons last night, and that's not going to change, and that will absolutely factor into the Bucs strength of schedule, whether or not you account for it now.

 

[Hostile]

If the Titans and Buccaneers finish with the same record, the only way the Buccaneers can move ahead of them in the Draft is if

First of all, there's no such thing as the "correct current draft order"; it's a meaningless phrase. The draft order is only determined when the season ends. Second, of course the list will change as new results come in. But the Packers did in fact beat the Falcons last night, and that's not going to change, and that will absolutely factor into the Bucs strength of schedule, whether or not you account for it now.

I understand completely why that site calculates it that way. Years ago, I did too. I noticed that the winning % for the season and the current winning % did not mirror each other.

I talked via PMs with AdamJT13 and he showed me why the entire schedule is the proper way to calculate the strength of schedule. As you siad, the games will still be played, therefore they matter in the calculation. It would take a miracle but Tampa could end up with a worse SOS, but that would mean virtually every team they played has to lose remaining games, while Tennessee's opponents have to win remaining games. That is less likely to happen.

If these 2 teams end up with identical records, barring a miracle slide by Tampa's opponents and a streak by Tennessee's opponents they cannot switch places easily.

This way of calculating it is simply more accurate.

 

[JD_KaPow]

I understand completely why that site calculates it that way. Years ago, I did too. I noticed that the winning % for the season and the current winning % did not mirror each other.

I talked via PMs with AdamJT13 and he showed me why the entire schedule is the proper way to calculate the strength of schedule. As you siad, the games will still be played, therefore they matter in the calculation. It would take a miracle for Tampa could end up with a worse SOS, but that would mean virtually every team they played has to lose remaining games, while Tennessee's opponents have to win remaining games. That is less likely to happen.

If these 2 teams end up with identical records, barring a miracle slide by Tampa's opponents and a streak by Tennessee's opponents they cannot switch places easily.

This way of calculating it is simply more accurate.

Yup; I agree with you. It's more accurate in the sense of "correlates better with the actual final draft order."

 

[Risen Star]

They've won enough where the highest they could possibly pick is the late teens. More likely early 20's.

It's way early but the closer we get to the bottom of the round the more I expect we trade out of it entirely.

 

[Hostile]

Yup; I agree with you. It's more accurate in the sense of "correlates better with the actual final draft order."

Precisely.

They've won enough where the highest they could possibly pick is the late teens. More likely early 20's.

It's way early but the closer we get to the bottom of the round the more I expect we trade out of it entirely.

I agree with you. I want DL in this Draft, and I'm not so sure the right guys are there at the bottom of the 1st this year. I could definitely see trading out, and adding a pick.

 

[Bluefin]

It's way early but the closer we get to the bottom of the round the more I expect we trade out of it entirely.

I'm open to trading, but selecting in the bottom half of the first round does carry a little extra value.

The fifth year option included in all first round contracts is very affordable.

 

[supercowboy8]

Yes, the wins and losses column will change. That is what makes my point for me. If they end up with the same number of wins, which team is going to have the weaker schedule and will therefore pick first?

Tennessee.

Therefore, that order is not correct due to how they are calculating it.

No it is correct because the titans play the jets and jags. 1 team will win meaning they will not be at the 1 spit or the 3 spot. The jets could be a 6 seed. Doesn't matter about strength o's schedule if there isn't a tie. If the titans win and jets and oakland lose out titans will be a 4 seed. So if the season ended today the nfl link is correct. You can't use future unplanned games to day the draft order

 

[supercowboy8]

First of all, there's no such thing as the "correct current draft order"; it's a meaningless phrase. The draft order is only determined when the season ends. Second, of course the list will change as new results come in. But the Packers did in fact beat the Falcons last night, and that's not going to change, and that will absolutely factor into the Bucs strength of schedule, whether or not you account for it now.

So will games that haven't been played yet. You can't count current standing with future strength of schedule. Can't do it.

 

[Hostile]

No it is correct because the titans play the jets and jags. 1 team will win meaning they will not be at the 1 spit or the 3 spot. The jets could be a 6 seed. Doesn't matter about strength o's schedule if there isn't a tie. If the titans win and jets and oakland lose out titans will be a 4 seed. So if the season ended today the nfl link is correct. You can't use future unplanned games to day the draft order

Both teams lose out, who will be 1st?
Both teams lose 2 and win 1, who will pick first between them?
Both teams lose 1 and win 2, who will pick first between them?
Both teams win all 3 games left, who will pick first between them?

Do the math, in each scenario the answer is Titans unless every team that they played all start winning and every team Tampa played start losing. That just isn't likely.

So if the answer is Titans all 4 scenarios, what is the flaw of the scenario you are touting? Exactly, it doesn't work out to be correct and mine does.

 

[Hostile]

So will games that haven't been played yet. You can't count current standing with future strength of schedule. Can't do it.

Not future strength, total strength. That's what determines the ultimate order.

 

[supercowboy8]

Both teams lose out, who will be 1st?
Both teams lose 2 and win 1, who will pick first between them?
Both teams lose 1 and win 2, who will pick first between them?
Both teams win all 3 games left, who will pick first between them?

Do the math, in each scenario the answer is Titans unless every team that they played all start winning and every team Tampa played start losing. That just isn't likely.

So if the answer is Titans all 4 scenarios, what is the flaw of the scenario you are touting? Exactly, it doesn't work out to be correct and mine does.

Niether the titans or bucs will be 1 or 2 if they win out. Because the titans would beat the jets and most likely then jump to 3 or 4. Win column counts first.

It doesn't matter. The Durrett draft order and your fudged up draft order doesn't mattet. In 3 weeks we will have the complete draft order and niether will match it. So this debate and thread is worthless.

 

[supercowboy8]

Not future strength, total strength. That's what determines the ultimate order.

No wins do. If the titans finish with 4 wins and bucs with 3 and jets with 3. Guess what. Titans aren't the 1st pick. So taking current records 3 games before the season ends and then putting a for casted strength of schedule by it means nothing right now and inaccurate.

 

[Hostile]

Niether the titans or bucs will be 1 or 2 if they win out. Because the titans would beat the jets and most likely then jump to 3 or 4. Win column counts first.

It doesn't matter. The Durrett draft order and your fudged up draft order doesn't mattet. In 3 weeks we will have the complete draft order and niether will match it. So this debate and thread is worthless.

That isn't the point. If the Bucs will not finish ahead of them, how is the other list right? It isn't. Why isn't it? Because it is not taking into account the entire strength of schedule.

If both teams lose out, who WILL pick #1? Is it the Buccaneers as the NFL list says?

The answer is no. Why is it no?

Because their list is NOT...wait for it...considering the entire strength of schedule and mine is. What is the final list considering that their current list is not? The entire strength of schedule.

It is really just that simple. Either you get it, or you don't. I don't care if you want to feel like they are right because they have cred and I don't. The fact of the matter is, the way they are calculating it is flawed. For their list to be right, if Tampa loses every remaining game they should not be able to be bumped from the #1 spot. But they are going to get bumped if Tennessee loses too.

My list on the other hand will not flip flop orders of teams finishing unless teams are very close in opponent winning % and one or the other has opponents winning more than the other does. Then it is a natural change that happens every year. What you are defending is an unnatural change in the order.

For your order to happen if both teams lose out the Packers have to lose 2 more games and the Jets and Jaguars have to win 2 more. It ain't happening.

 

[Hostile]

No wins do. If the titans finish with 4 wins and bucs with 3 and jets with 3. Guess what. Titans aren't the 1st pick. So taking current records 3 games before the season ends and then putting a for casted strength of schedule by it means nothing right now and inaccurate.

We're talking about what determines the order if two or more teams finish with identical records. I am not saying the Titans will finish with a higher pick if they win more games than the Buccaneers do. You're understanding is flawed if you think that is what I am saying. I am saying the Buccaneers can't finish ahead of the Titans without a miracle if the two teams have the exact same number of wins.

If Tampa loses out they would pick ahead of every other team that does the same, except one. That team is Tennessee. If they lose out they would be #1. The reason is simple, entire strength of schedule.