Draft Order So Far

[Hostile]

This does not take into account playoffs, etc. Just how the order is right now based on records and opponents win %.

1. Bills
2. 49ers
3. Lions
4. Cowboys
5. Panthers
6. Chargers
7. Broncos
8. Browns
9. Vikings
10. Bengals
11. Rams
12. Raiders
13. Jaguars
14. Cardinals
15. Dolphins
16. Bears
17. Packers
18. Saints
19. Eagles
20. Commanders
21. Chiefs
22. Seahawks
23. Buccaneers
24. Colts
25. Texans
26. Falcons
27. Giants
28. Ravens
29. Titans
T30. Patriots
T30. Jets
32. Steelers

 

[big dog cowboy]

4. Cowboys
6. Chargers
9. Vikings
10. Bengals

4 playoff teams and division winners from just one year ago? Wow.

 

[cowboyjoe]

This does not take into account playoffs, etc. Just how the order is right now based on records and opponents win %.

1. Bills
2. 49ers
3. Lions
4. Cowboys

well, one way to look at it, we should get a top draft pick impact player.

Also, get a very good player in 2nd round too. Now, just need a discipline type coach, who cleans house alittle. makes players like Miles Austin focus more on catching the football (remember Miles said he was thinking about something else besides football on the obvious TD pass Miles dropped), lack of passion, intensity and discipline on this team, lack of hard training camp, etc...

A swagger from this team, like this is our house, you dont disrespect us, etc..

 

[The Realist]

I can't believe I'm saying this in October.

Here's to the Bills, Lions and Niners getting hot.

 

[BrAinPaiNt]

I talked about this in some post yesterday.

I have a feeling we will win a few games and wind up drafting somewhere closer to the middle of the rounds.

To the point that it becomes a lose/lose situation. We don't finish going to the playoffs or a decent record, but the record is not bad enough to get us to the high end of rounds in the draft.
:

 

[ZeroClub]

A random thought I had while driving to work:

The 2011 draft order will determined by records from the 2010 season (and subsequent playoffs).

How would the 2012 draft be ordered if there was no 2011 season?

(I certainly believe that the 2011 season will happen. But hypothetically speaking, what do you think the NFL would do about the 2012 draft order if 2011 wasn't played?).

 

[jbsg02]

A random thought I had while driving to work:

The 2011 draft order will determined by records from the 2010 season (and subsequent playoffs).

How would the 2012 draft be ordered if there was no 2011 season?

(I certainly believe that the 2011 season will happen. But hypothetically speaking, what do you think the NFL would do about the 2012 draft order if 2011 wasn't played?).

AdamJT suspected some sort of weighted lottery

 

[KingintheNorth]

AdamJT suspected some sort of weighted lottery

or just repeat the 2011 order.

Man, I cannot fathom a year without NFL football. If the owners and players blow this they are beyond stupid.

 

[Hostile]

I talked about this in some post yesterday.

I have a feeling we will win a few games and wind up drafting somewhere closer to the middle of the rounds.

To the point that it becomes a lose/lose situation. We don't finish going to the playoffs or a decent record, but the record is not bad enough to get us to the high end of rounds in the draft.
:

That would be fine with me. I feel the talent that we need is actually there where we would not have to reach for any players.

 

[The Realist]

That would be fine with me. I feel the talent that we need is actually there where we would not have to reach for any players.

Yep......

That gets us more in-line with where the ILB's, FS's, G's and T's are slated.

You can get a decent CB in 3.

 

[cowboyjoe]

That would be fine with me. I feel the talent that we need is actually there where we would not have to reach for any players.

i dont want to drop below the 14 pick in 1st round, you have a better chance to get impact players generaly from 1-12 normally, now and then you get lucky and get an impact player in 14th to 17th pick in first round. Or with 24th slot like we got with dez. But normally you dont get an impact player after the 17slot, unless a player falls like emmitt smith or warren sapp or randy moss did. So, if you look at the lists i compiled below you will see impact players i posted in bold. Now and then you had one with 14th pick or 17th, but not all the time. I dont want to have to reach at all.

I said it over and over the past 3 years, this team needs impact players in the draft, like the Cowboys did with tony dorsett, randy white, ed jones, high in the draft. Or like the cowboys did with high picks in 90s with troy aikman, michael irvin, russell maryland, alvin harper- all picks higher than 14th slot and kevin smith with emmitt smith at 17th slot. All of these players i mentioned were high level intensity players, that wanted to win, focused on football and be champions. You have to have those type of players on your team to excel.

All of these players were leaders on the team, that held players accountable, and pushed other players to excel. I can live if cowboys are picking with 14th pick in first round, but I think were better suited to be drafting at about 12th spot or higher, so we dont have to reach at all. Besides, if your picking in the top 10 spots, you might be able to make a trade down, and get an extra 2nd or 3rd rounder to boot, but still stay within the top 12 spots. I just dont want this team to have to reach at all in this draft. If we get another player or two like with the intensity of dez and sean lee, then this team will be on the way back to excellence. Along with Jerry Jones possibly getting a key player or two in free agency or trade.




2009 draft
1 Lions Matthew Stafford QB
2 Rams Jason Smith OT
3 Chiefs Tyson Jackson DE
4 Seahawks Aaron Curry OLB
5 Jets Mark Sanchez QB
6 Bengals Andre Smith OT
7 Raiders Darrius Heyward-Bey WR
8 Jaguars Eugene Monroe OT
9 Packers B.J. Raji DT
10 49ers Michael Crabtree WR
11 Bills Aaron Maybin DE
12 Broncos Knowshon Moreno RB
13 Commanders Brian Orakpo DE
14 Saints Malcolm Jenkins CB
15 Texans Brian Cushing OLB
16 Chargers Larry English DE
17 Buccaneers Josh Freeman QB

2008 draft
Sel # Player Position School Team
1 Jake Long T Michigan Miami Dolphins
2 Chris Long DE Virginia St. Louis Rams
3 Matt Ryan QB Boston College Atlanta Falcons
4 Darren McFadden RB Arkansas Oakland Raiders
5 Glenn Dorsey DT Louisiana State Kansas City Chiefs
6 Vernon Gholston LB Ohio State New York Jets
7 Sedrick Ellis DT USC New Orleans Saints
8 Derrick Harvey DE Florida Jacksonville Jaguars
9 Keith Rivers OLB USC Cincinnati Bengals
10 Jerod Mayo ILB Tennessee New England Patriots
11 Leodis McKelvin CB Troy Buffalo Bills
12 Ryan Clady T Boise State Denver Broncos
13 Jonathan Stewart RB Oregon Carolina Panthers
14 Chris Williams OT Vanderbilt Chicago Bears
15 Branden Albert T Virginia Kansas City Chiefs
16 Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie CB Tennessee State Arizona Cardinals
17 Gosder Cherilus T Boston College Detroit Lions
18 Joe Flacco QB Delaware Baltimore Ravens

2007 draft
1 JaMarcus Russell QB Louisiana State Oakland Raiders
2 Calvin Johnson WR Georgia Tech Detroit Lions
3 Joe Thomas OT Wisconsin Cleveland Browns
4 Gaines Adams DE Clemson Tampa Bay Buccaneers
5 Levi Brown OT Penn State Arizona Cardinals
6 LaRon Landry SS Louisiana State Washington Commanders
7 Adrian Peterson RB Oklahoma Minnesota Vikings
8 Jamaal Anderson DE Arkansas Atlanta Falcons
9 Ted Ginn Jr. WR Ohio State Miami Dolphins
10 Amobi Okoye DT Louisville Houston Texans
11 Patrick Willis ILB Mississippi San Francisco 49ers
12 Marshawn Lynch RB California Buffalo Bills
13 Adam Carriker NT Nebraska St. Louis Rams
14 Darrelle Revis CB Pittsburgh New York Jets
15 Lawrence Timmons LB Florida State Pittsburgh Steelers
16 Justin Harrell DT Tennessee Green Bay Packers
17 Jarvis Moss DE Florida Denver Broncos
18 Leon Hall CB Michigan Cincinnati Bengals

2006 draft
1 Mario Williams DE North Carolina State Houston Texans
2 Reggie Bush RB USC New Orleans Saints
3 Vince Young QB Texas Tennessee Titans
4 D'Brickashaw Ferguson T Virginia New York Jets
5 A.J. Hawk OLB Ohio State Green Bay Packers
6 Vernon Davis TE Maryland San Francisco 49ers
7 Michael Huff SS Texas Oakland Raiders
8 Donte Whitner SS Ohio State Buffalo Bills
9 Ernie Sims OLB Florida State Detroit Lions
10 Matt Leinart QB USC Arizona Cardinals
11 Jay Cutler QB Vanderbilt Denver Broncos
12 Haloti Ngata DT Oregon Baltimore Ravens
13 Kamerion Wimbley OLB Florida State Cleveland Browns
14 Brodrick Bunkley DT Florida State Philadelphia Eagles
15 Tye Hill CB Clemson St. Louis Rams
16 Jason Allen DB Tennessee Miami Dolphins
17 Chad Greenway LB Iowa Minnesota Vikings
18 Bobby Carpenter LB Ohio State Dallas Cowboys

2005 draft
1 Alex Smith QB Utah San Francisco 49ers
2 Ronnie Brown RB Auburn Miami Dolphins
3 Braylon Edwards WR Michigan Cleveland Browns
4 Cedric Benson RB Texas Chicago Bears
5 Cadillac Williams RB Auburn Tampa Bay Buccaneers
6 Pacman Jones CB West Virginia Tennessee Titans
7 Troy Williamson WR South Carolina Minnesota Vikings
8 Antrel Rolle DB Miami (Fla.) Arizona Cardinals
9 Carlos Rogers DB Auburn Washington Commanders
10 Mike Williams WR USC Detroit Lions
11 DeMarcus Ware OLB Troy State Dallas Cowboys
12 Shawne Merriman OLB Maryland San Diego Chargers
13 Jammal Brown T Oklahoma New Orleans Saints
14 Thomas Davis DB Georgia Carolina Panthers
15 Derrick Johnson OLB Texas Kansas City Chiefs
16 Travis Johnson DT Florida State Houston Texans
17 David Pollack LB Georgia Cincinnati Bengals
18 Erasmus James DE Wisconsin Minnesota Vikings
19 Alex Barron T Florida State St. Louis Rams

 

[dwmyers]

The posted draft order is incorrect. My software said Dallas was fifth and checking manually, it sure isn't 4th..

Dallas        Carolina    Detroit

WAS (4-3)    NYG (5-2)    Chi (4-3)
CHI (4-3)    TBAY(4-2)    Phi (4-3)
Hou (4-2)    Cinn(2-4)    Min (2-4)
---          NOR (4-3)    GB  (4-3)
Ten (5-2)    Chi (4-3)    STL (3-4)
Min (2-4)    ---          NYG (5-2)
NYG (5-2)    SFO (1-6)    ---
------------------------------------------------
TOT (24-16)  TOT (20-20)  TOT(22-19)

So, if Carolina, Detroit and Dallas are all 1-5, and the tie breaker is strength of schedule, then just how does Dallas end up 4th?

I'm curious.

David.

 

[Hostile]

The posted draft order is incorrect. My software said Dallas was fifth and checking manually, it sure isn't 4th..

Dallas        Carolina    Detroit

WAS (4-3)    NYG (5-2)    Chi (4-3)
CHI (4-3)    TBAY(4-2)    Phi (4-3)
Hou (4-2)    Cinn(2-4)    Min (2-4)
---          NOR (4-3)    GB  (4-3)
Ten (5-2)    Chi (4-3)    STL (3-4)
Min (2-4)    ---          NYG (5-2)
NYG (5-2)    SFO (1-6)    ---
------------------------------------------------
TOT (24-16)  TOT (20-20)  TOT(22-19)

So, if Carolina, Detroit and Dallas are all 1-5, and the tie breaker is strength of schedule, then just how does Dallas end up 4th?

I'm curious.

David.

Since the final order is determined upon all opponents I already use the entire schedule to make the call. This puts the Cowboys Opponent win % at .561, the Lions are .519, and the Panthers at .566.

Thus Buffalo at 0-6 is #1
49ers at 1-5 are #2
Lions at 1-5 with a .519 are #3
Cowboys at 1-5 with a .561 are #4
Panthers at 1-5 with a .566 are #5

By using the entire schedule I get closer to the overall win % for the entire year.

 

[Hostile]

By the way, I have an excel speadsheet program that I use to do this that I am more than willing to give to anyone who wants a copy of it. All you have to do is total the wins and losses on the main sheet and it calculates the %s for you. Then the order is simply look at the records and enter the order week to week.

I created this program and it isn't perfect, but it works.

 

[SDogo]

By the way, I have an excel speadsheet program that I use to do this that I am more than willing to give to anyone who wants a copy of it. All you have to do is total the wins and losses on the main sheet and it calculates the %s for you. Then the order is simply look at the records and enter the order week to week.

I created this program and it isn't perfect, but it works.

It works just fine, I have revised it to determine year to date order as well as account a full year and year to date they are picking 5th but if you project a full season they are 4th so your both right.

 

[dwmyers]

It works just fine, I have revised it to determine year to date order as well as account a full year and year to date they are picking 5th but if you project a full season they are 4th so your both right.

That's what I realized after Hostile explained. I'm "freezing a moment in time" to account for a draft now. Hostile is extrapolating now to the end of the season. After 16 games, the two systems converge. Different paths, same final result.

Arguing which is better is about as fruitful as arguing Golden Delicious versus Granny Smith.

D-

 

[dallasfaniac]

7 Raiders Darrius Heyward-Bey WR

I'm sorry, it's really difficult for me to take you seriously (let alone not openly mock you) when you include guys like this on your list like it proves your point. Let's look at all the WRs taken in the 1st round of the 2009 NFL draft.

Pick# - Name - Statistics
7 - Heyward-Bey - 285 yards and 1 TD
10 - Crabtree - 957 yards and 4TDs
19 - Maclin - 1220 yards and 10 TDs
22 - Harvin - 1079 yards 9 TDs
29 - Nicks - 1315 yards and 14 TDs
30 - Britt - 1135 yards and 10 TDs

But normally you dont get an impact player after the 17 slot

Gotcha.

 

[cowboyjoe]

I'm sorry, it's really difficult for me to take you seriously (let alone not openly mock you) when you include guys like this on your list like it proves your point. Let's look at all the WRs taken in the 1st round of the 2009 NFL draft.

Pick# - Name - Statistics
7 - Heyward-Bey - 285 yards and 1 TD
10 - Crabtree - 957 yards and 4TDs
19 - Maclin - 1220 yards and 10 TDs
22 - Harvin - 1079 yards 9 TDs
29 - Nicks - 1315 yards and 14 TDs
30 - Britt - 1135 yards and 10 TDs



Gotcha.

Reason why i put Bey there is for one thing, with his type of deep speed, it stretches the field, so you can run, so in essence, he is still doing his job, stretching the field.

i did say if you noticed, that you do get players sometimes after 17th slot, but not very often, if you look at picks after 17th slot in draft last say 8 years or so, impact players generally arent taken.

Your better chance is to get those impact type players early, now and then, you get a dez bryant, randy moss, or chris johnson, but very seldom.

So, instead of reaching for a player after 17th pick, i would rather the cowboys get an impact player from 14th slot or higher, better chance 12th or higher.

so, you really didnt get me on anything because i did mention warren sapp, or emmitt smith, or randy moss, etc...

your just lucky if you get a player say like we got dez with 24th pick this year, only reason we got him, he was suspended, his work ethic, etc, was questioned, so he fell just like randy moss did

and if you look at top cbs, which we need, generally their gone by 14th pick like revis was, we need an impact cb, just like revis on this team, newman is getting old,

or an OT like say a Joe Thomas or Jake Long, this team needs a dominant offensive linemen, like a Larry Allen or Erik Williams that opposing teams fear and have to game plan against.

So, whether we go at OL, S, CB, DE, we need an impact player, generally you get those in top 12 picks or so.

I think you would agree with me, if Dez Bryant had played his senior year and didnt get suspended, Dez would have been a top 10 pick, probably even a top 5 pick.

 

[dallasfaniac]

Reason why i put Bey there is for one thing, with his type of deep speed, it stretches the field, so you can run, so in essence, he is still doing his job, stretching the field.

You and I have huge differences in what we see as doing their job when drafted in the top 10.

i did say if you noticed, that you do get players sometimes after 17th slot, but not very often, if you look at picks after 17th slot in draft last say 8 years or so, impact players generally arent taken.

You and I have huge differences in what we see as 'not very often' I guess. I am at work so I can't break down each draft over the last 8 years and then, I wouldn't even know what makes a fair comparison. Am I allowed to use every pick in the draft after the 17th overall or only those in the bottom half of the draft? Am I allowed to factor in the contract of a top player compared to end of round or later rounds? I can't start with 2010 because the sample window is too small, I already showed WRs in 2009. In 2008 I could say, who would you rather have Darren McFadden (1413 yards 9 TD) or Chris Johnson (3896 yards 30 TDs)? Ryan (8070 yards 50 TDs 30 INTs 25 wins for a 6 year $72 million) or Flacco (8235 yards 45 TDs 30 INTs 28 wins for a 5 year $11 million)? I could go on and on but I have to get back to coding so I can early out.

 

[cowboyjoe]

You and I have huge differences in what we see as doing their job when drafted in the top 10.



You and I have huge differences in what we see as 'not very often' I guess. I am at work so I can't break down each draft over the last 8 years and then, I wouldn't even know what makes a fair comparison. Am I allowed to use every pick in the draft after the 17th overall or only those in the bottom half of the draft? Am I allowed to factor in the contract of a top player compared to end of round or later rounds? I can't start with 2010 because the sample window is too small, I already showed WRs in 2009. In 2008 I could say, who would you rather have Darren McFadden (1413 yards 9 TD) or Chris Johnson (3896 yards 30 TDs)? Ryan (8070 yards 50 TDs 30 INTs 25 wins for a 6 year $72 million) or Flacco (8235 yards 45 TDs 30 INTs 28 wins for a 5 year $11 million)? I could go on and on but I have to get back to coding so I can early out.

I understand what your saying, but your margin of errors after 17th pick is less for impact players then before from 1st to 12th pick.


My point is, the super impact players, you have better success hitting on them like in top 12, then you do down below.

If you took the past 8 drafts for instances, and did a graph of
1-12 picks vs 18th to 32nd pick, you would see, the better players are picked in higher rankings of picks one to 12. Now, you do have the unusual players that fall,, like revis, in 14th, or emmitt smith or warren sap or kevin smith 17th pick, or randy moss 21, or percy harvin or dez bryant at 24th pick in first round.

or even chris johnson, right now, let me ask you this, who is outperforming who felix jones who was drafted above chris johnson or felix?

chris johnson fell because of his coming from a small college and his neck injury. Players do fall, but more than often enough, you get the impact players in top of the 15 picks overall. Not below!

Was russell maryland a top pick, how about troy aikman? Remember Jerry Rice, the 49ers traded up above us and took him, about 16th pick in first round. Most of your top CBs, which we need, and your top offensive linemen like Jake Long or Joe Thomas are taken in the top 5 picks overall.

Newman was a top 10 pick, so was roy williams safety. Roy Williams wr was a top 10 pick. So was Peyton and Eli Manning for example. This team needs impact players, with intensity, desire, heart, attitude, to play the game, with a demeanor to be the best. We even got Michael Irvin and Demarcus Ware with the 11th overall pick in first round.

Now and then you get lucky getting an emmitt smith, randy moss, chris johnson in picks 17 on down. Again, my point is, I dont want to have to reach, I want an impact player right off from the start, that can play right away, not wait on him a year or two to develop.

Need I remind you, we got Bobby Carpenter with a 18th pick (our track record after 17th pick isnt too good), ebezener ekuban with about 20th pick, david lafleur with 22nd, shante carver 23, then landry era with lower picks in first round, kevin brooks with 17th, billy cannon 25, rod hill 26, howard richards 26, robert shaw 27, larry bethea 28, aaron kyle 27, want me to go on?

See the point im trying to make, i want an impact player that you get generally in top 10 to 12, that your not reaching, that can help this team right away. Granted some dont pan out in top 10 to 17th, but more than enough do, if you have good scouting.

Now and then you can hit on a dez, because he fell, but you cant generally do that every year, the cream of the crop is in top 10 or so.

So, i want it to be like a cant miss, impact player that can play for 12 years or more, like a Randy White that we got 2nd overall or a tony dorsett, or ed jones, or troy aikman, or russell maryland, etc...