Draft Position Update and Scenario's

[SDogo]

No matter what happens Monday and Tuesday night we will have the 7th pick after this week although a Atlanta Win and a Vikings Win significantly improves our tie breaker situation for the final week.

1. Carolina
We have been mathematically eliminated from obtaining the #1 pick
Status: Eliminated

2. Denver
Even though Denver won and is only 1 game behind us in the win column it is now mathematically impossible for us to win the tie breaker over them eliminating us from contention for the 2nd spot.
Status: Eliminated

3. Bengals
The Bengals win today was huge. Should they pull an upset next week over Baltimore we hold a huge advantage in the SOS tie breaker. Even still, our chances at this point of landing the 3rd draft position requires a Broncos win, Bengals win, Buffalo win, Cardinals win a Seattle vs St. Louis tie and a New Orleans vs Tampa tie. In other words, I guess you can say we are technically eliminated from contention for the 3rd spot.
Status: Less then 1%

4. Buffalo
Same situation goes for Buffalo, if they can pull out an upset over the Jets we also hold a huge advantage in the SOS tie breaker. Matter of fact I believe it to be mathematically impossible for us to lose this tie breaker with Buffalo. Unfortunately because of the two teams above Buffalo on this list coupled with the fact that the 49ers and Cardinals play each other there are about 20 scenario's that eliminate us from this spot and 1 that does not which requires a slew of ties and upsets and is just to silly to mention.
Status: Less then 1%

5. Arizona
Plain and simple, there is no way we can catch Arizona on the SOS tie breaker. Arizona must win next week or they are simply a team we can not pass. Good news is this the 1st spot where we stand a mathematical chance of landing with out a act of god involved. At this point, it's also impossible for me to list all the scenario's involved that could help us land or lose this spot because it could come down to a SOS of schedule tie breaker with 8 teams and that's a lot of other teams involved with wins, losses and ties.
Status: 20% likely

6. 49ers
Huge game next week with the Cardinals. Right now the 6th spot is our most likely destination. Only a couple possible scenario's (including a Dallas win) could knock us from this spot but as of right now we are more likely to land the 5th spot then get knocked out of the 6th spot.
Status: 67% likely

7. Cowboys
Although this weeks games did not go a long way in improving our draft position this week there were some huge games that effected possible tie breakers heading into next week. Based on every possible scenario it's virtually impossible we can hold onto this spot after next week.
Status: 1%

8. Texans
Interesting enough, today's outcomes have almost completely eliminated us from having any chance of landing the 8th spot. Please forgive me if I don't list the scenario's here! lol
Status: 1%

9. Lions
Huge win today, thank you Detroit! Based on the SOS tie breaker it's not likely they can jump s again unless we beat the Eagles. There is a small mathematical chance we can drop to the 9th spot and that involves a Dallas win in every one of them coupled with two of the following teams winning (Detroit, Houston, Cleveland or Minnesota) as well as a Seahawks and Titans win.
Status: 2%

10. Browns
See above, almost exact same scenario.
Status: 4%

Chances outside the top 10:
11. 4%
12. 1%
13. Less then 1%*
14. Less then 1%*
15-32. Eliminated

*= scenario's are so utterly ridiculous that I almost did not mention them but are still possible and you need 100% to make it mathematically correct

Interesting notes:
*depending on who you think will beat who next week it's actually in favor of Dallas should the Eagles win Tuesday. Although it will only come into play with tie breaker scenario's

*Mondays Atlanta vs Saints game actually play's into 98% of the tie breaker procedures listed above. 90% of those favor us if the Falcons win.

*Besides the Panthers with a 100% probability of landing the 1st pick Dallas has the highest probability of landing a spot (6th at 67%) then any other team at any other spot.

 

[MichaelWinicki]

Thank you for your effort!

 

[Goldenrichards83]

Thanks Dog.

 

[hendog]

If SF and Arizona play next week won't we automatically jump ahead of the winner assuming we lose against the eagles?

 

[SDogo]

Thanks guys.

After Tuesdays Eagles vs Minny game I will post a complete "who to root for" guide for the final week based on a Dallas win and a Dallas lost.

 

[Woods]

Wow, that was thorough!

 

[SDogo]

If SF and Arizona play next week won't we automatically jump ahead of the winner assuming we lose against the eagles?

Yes and then it will be a matter of the tie breaking procedure with the loser. If it's Arizona we can not own the tie breaker over them which is why it's very important they beat SF. It's probably one of the biggest games of the week besides our own.

 

[Hostile]

I am going to go ahead and assume a couple of things. Eagles will beat the Vikings and Saints will beat the Falcons.

I am further going to assume these are the playoff teams.

1. Falcons
2. Bears
3. Eagles
4. Rams
5. Saints
6. Giants (Packers vs. Bears, Giants vs. Commanders next week)

1. Patriots
2. Steelers
3. Chiefs
4. Colts
5. Ravens
6. Jets

Here then are the top 20 positions.

2-13
1. Panthers

4-11
2. Broncos
3. Bengals
4. Bills

5-10
5. Cardinals
6. 49ers
7. Cowboys
8. Texans
T9. Lions
T9. Vikings
11. Browns

6-9
12. Seahawks
13. Titans
14. Commanders

7-8
15. Dolphins

8-7
16. Jaguars
17. Chargers
18. Raiders (Patriots own pick)

9-6
19. Buccaneers
20. Packers

Wildcards
21. Giants
22. Jets
23. Saints
24. Ravens

Division Winners
25. Rams
26. Colts
27. Chiefs
28. Bears
29. Eagles
30. Steelers
31. Falcons
32. Patriots

 

[SDogo]

I am going to go ahead and assume a couple of things. Eagles will beat the Vikings and Saints will beat the Falcons.

I am further going to assume these are the playoff teams.

That word seems to be real popular recently. Sure hope the old saying does not come back to haunt us.:laugh2:

 

[fanfromvirginia]

Yes and then it will be a matter of the tie breaking procedure with the loser. If it's Arizona we can not own the tie breaker over them which is why it's very important they beat SF. It's probably one of the biggest games of the week besides our own.

Okay, great work but I'm not sure how you're so certain there will be tiebreakers and that we would lose them. I don't get why a tiebreaker would be necessary for us to be above Cincinnati if our SoS is better. Either it stays a lot higher or it doesn't. Relatedly, how do we know we can't jump Denver? What am I missing?

 

[hendog]

Yes and then it will be a matter of the tie breaking procedure with the loser. If it's Arizona we can not own the tie breaker over them which is why it's very important they beat SF. It's probably one of the biggest games of the week besides our own.

So if the cards beat the 9ers and we lose then we can leapfrog both of them to the 5th pick? Sorry I'm stupid.

 

[SDogo]

So if the cards beat the 9ers and we lose then we can leapfrog both of them to the 5th pick? Sorry I'm stupid.

Yeah but there are a couple things that could happen along the way. When your talking about SOS tie breaker with two teams from different divisions that's a lot of teams that can play into the scenario.

 

[SDogo]

Okay, great work but I'm not sure how you're so certain there will be tiebreakers and that we would lose them. I don't get why a tiebreaker would be necessary for us to be above Cincinnati if our SoS is better. Either it stays a lot higher or it doesn't. Relatedly, how do we know we can't jump Denver? What am I missing?

I think we are headed the same direction but taking different routes.

If the Bengals win and we lose we dont need to worry about any tie breakers besides the SOS and I don't believe there is any scenario that allows the Bengals to over take us.

We cant jump Denver because the amount of unlike opponents and divisional games left does not allow for Denver opponents to accumulate enough wins to strengthen their schedule to a point we can pass them with the amount of divisional games (including our own) and like oppenents to accumulate enough loses to drop us lower.

Did that make any sense? lol

 

[fanfromvirginia]

I think we are headed the same direction but taking different routes.

If the Bengals win and we lose we dont need to worry about any tie breakers besides the SOS and I don't believe there is any scenario that allows the Bengals to over take us.

We cant jump Denver because the amount of unlike opponents and divisional games left does not allow for Denver opponents to accumulate enough wins to strengthen their schedule to a point we can pass them with the amount of divisional games (including our own) and like oppenents to accumulate enough loses to drop us lower.

Did that make any sense? lol

Got it. Thanks!

 

[Randy White]

using that order, my mini-mock for now:

1) Panthers= QB Andrew Luck, Stanford
2) Broncos= DE Da'Quan Bowers, Clemson
3) Bengals= DT Nick Fairly, Auburn
4) Bills= OLB Robert Quinn, N.Carolina
5) * Cards= QB Blain Gabbert, Mizzou
6) * 49ers= QB Jake Locker, Washington
7) Cowboys= CB Patrick Peterson, LSU
8) Texans= CB Prince Amukamara, Nebraska
9) Lions= WR AJ Green, Georgia
10) Browns= DT Marcell Dareus, Alabama
11) Vikings= QB Cam Newton, Auburn


*= Trade bait


The Cards and 49ers are not going to pick their QB that high, so depending on who they trade with, that list would change.

and yes, I do believe Luck will declare.

 

[burmafrd]

there are serious rumblings that Michigan will not go after Harbaugh; if that is the case, you add the uncertainty in the NFL and there is a real good chance that Luck stays.

 

[dstew60105]

using that order, my mini-mock for now:

1) Panthers= QB Andrew Luck, Stanford
2) Broncos= DE Da'Quan Bowers, Clemson
3) Bengals= DT Nick Fairly, Auburn
4) Bills= OLB Robert Quinn, N.Carolina
5) * Cards= QB Blain Gabbert, Mizzou
6) * 49ers= QB Jake Locker, Washington
7) Cowboys= CB Patrick Peterson, LSU
8) Texans= CB Prince Amukamara, Nebraska
9) Lions= WR AJ Green, Georgia
10) Browns= DT Marcell Dareus, Alabama
11) Vikings= QB Cam Newton, Auburn


*= Trade bait


The Cards and 49ers are not going to pick their QB that high, so depending on who they trade with, that list would change.

and yes, I do believe Luck will declare.

No way Locker or Gabbert are taken the high.

 

[SDogo]

there are serious rumblings that Michigan will not go after Harbaugh; if that is the case, you add the uncertainty in the NFL and there is a real good chance that Luck stays.

and with a rookie cap likely to be implemented in any new CBA he will see his last chance to cash in like a fat cow go by the way side.

There is no chance in hell he passes on the opportunity to retire with out ever playing a down by returning to Stanford and risking it all only to face a "capped" contract a year later.

 

[MichaelWinicki]

and with a rookie cap likely to be implemented in any new CBA he will see his last chance to cash in like a fat cow go by the way side.

There is no chance in hell he passes on the opportunity to retire with out ever playing a down by returning to Stanford and risking it all only to face a "capped" contract a year later.

You bring up a powerful variable that I hadn't thought too much about, but that is a potential game-changer for the upcoming draft and who declares.

 

[SDogo]

You bring up a powerful variable that I hadn't thought too much about, but that is a potential game-changer for the upcoming draft and who declares.

I think your going to see an unusual amount of JR's at least ask for a draft grade from the NFL this year and it in the end I'm pretty confident we will have a record number of JR's declare.