Draft Strategy and Maneuvering

[Verdict]

If I understand it correctly, we have the following picks which have the following point totals:

#51 : 390
#69: 245
#97: 112
#113: 68
#148: 32.2
#158: 29.2
#184: 18.8
#193: 15.2
#210: 8.4

It would seem that pick #158 might be used to move up picks #69, #97, #113 or #148, or be traded away since it is at the very end of round 5 AND we should get a 5th round compensatory pick. I think pick # 158 is more likely to be traded than any other pick. There is a compensatory pick coming right behind it. Moreover picks # 184 and 193 together comprise enough points to actually move up to pick #148 or 149, which is a higher 5th rounder.

Picks # 97 and # 193 would seem to be ripe for trading up or down since both are the first picks in rounds 4 and 7 respectively. In theory, I dont think pick # 97 would be used to move up picks 51, or 69, but might be packaged with a lower pick to move up into round 3.

I really hope that we consider the opportunity to defer picks into next year whenever possible.

 

[Beast_from_East]

We should get 2 or 3 compensatory picks, so that would give us 11 overall I think.

Noway we actually draft 11 rookies, so I defiently see us trading some away. I dont see a move back into the first, but defiently some movement in the 3rd and 4th rounds.

 

[Randy White]

the picks as it stands right now, but we still don't know how many comp picks the league is going to issue the the teams yet, so those spots ( most probably after #113 ) are not going to stay the same.

Also, I've been getting the feeling that the " value chart " ( which I think was invented by Jimmah Jenius Johnson ) is becoming a thing of the past, particularly when it comes to top picks, because of several factors such as the bonuses rookies are getting, teams willingness to go after particular players they like, and the type of players that become available throught the draft .

For example: last year, Baltimore moved from the 8th spot of the draft to the 26th spot ( Jax ) and all the Jags had to pay was two 3rd round draft picks and a 4th round pick to move up that high. However, when Baltimore moved up from #26 to #18, they had to give up a 3rd round draft pick and a 6th round draft pick.

You'd think that moving from #26 to #8 would cost a heck of alot more than just two 3rd round picks and a 4th round pick and if the market was that weak, then you'd think it would cost alot less than a 3rd and a 6th round pick to move up from #26 to #18.

This tells me that teams are, for the most part, disregarding the chart and just going by their own particular values.

 

[Verdict]

the picks as it stands right now, but we still don't know how many comp picks the league is going to issue the the teams yet, so those spots ( most probably after #113 ) are not going to stay the same.

Also, I've been getting the feeling that the " value chart " ( which I think was invented by Jimmah Jenius Johnson ) is becoming a thing of the past, particularly when it comes to top picks, because of several factors such as the bonuses rookies are getting, teams willingness to go after particular players they like, and the type of players that become available throught the draft .

For example: last year, Baltimore moved from the 8th spot of the draft to the 26th spot ( Jax ) and all the Jags had to pay was two 3rd round draft picks and a 4th round pick to move up that high. However, when Baltimore moved up from #26 to #18, they had to give up a 3rd round draft pick and a 6th round draft pick.

You'd think that moving from #26 to #8 would cost a heck of alot more than just two 3rd round picks and a 4th round pick and if the market was that weak, then you'd think it would cost alot less than a 3rd and a 6th round pick to move up from #26 to #18.

This tells me that teams are, for the most part, disregarding the chart and just going by their own particular values.

I have been of the opinion for a good while that the chart should be reworked, especially for the first round values as they relate to the remaining rounds. The top 10 picks should probably be given particular scrutiny.

 

[AbeBeta]

Also, I've been getting the feeling that the " value chart " ( which I think was invented by Jimmah Jenius Johnson ) is becoming a thing of the past, particularly when it comes to top picks, because of several factors such as the bonuses rookies are getting, teams willingness to go after particular players they like, and the type of players that become available throught the draft .

the value of the top picks is, and kinda always has been, driven by the quality of the player available at that pick. the value chart always went out the window when a special player was available.

however from where we are picking, you can expect any moves to follow the chart

 

[Apollo Creed]

We can target players, and really wheel n deal this year.

Another draft like last years and we'll start to be one of the youngest and deepest teams in the league.

 

[TNCowboy]

I think this team's done enough deferring picks. If they get 11 picks, I'd rather they move up some if possible in the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th rounds, and wind up with 7 or 8 picks of a higher quality. Obviously, 11 draft picks won't make the team, but there's a good chance that say 6 or 7 rookies out of 8 or 9 picks would.

This team needs help all over the place, now. Unless they can't move or just don't like the players available in each slot, they need to get as much young talent in as soon as they can and not try to add future picks. They thought they had a better team than they really did last year and traded forward a couple of picks, and we wound up without a couple of picks that might've been a big help in '08 (like a backup OL for example).

 

[Randy White]

however from where we are picking, you can expect any moves to follow the chart

Well, not necessarily. I mean, from around the area where we picked, a couple of teams ( Colts and Niners ) have traded up into the the late 1st round, or early 2nd, using next year's #1 pick, which I think it's overpaying big time. Both drafted offensive tackles.

I think we ripped Cleveland off last year with that 3rd rounder this year for switching places in the 4th round last year.