quaigs
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I was wondering what are the odds of getting a successful pick throughout each round and came up with the following to give myself a rough estimate. Determining what makes a pick successful is debatable so I used 5 plus year starters over their careers as the determining factor of success from 2002 to 2006 and found the following.
For interest sake I compared beside it how Dallas faired.
Round 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 Average Dal
1 66% 63% 69% 53% 69% 64% 80% Ware Williams Newman Spears
2 50% 31% 39% 41% 30% 38% 71% Gurode Jones Bryant Burnett Fasano
3 6% 27% 36% 27% 21% 24% 50% Witten Peterman
4 28% 14% 14% 18% 19% 19% 33% James Canty
5 14% 8% 24% 21% 19% 17% 0%
6 13% 5% 8% 7% 3% 7% 0%
7 4% 5% 4% 6% 10% 6% 14% Ratliff
- Trading down for picks is really not worth it.
- 6 and 7 rounds picks are not valuable and success is a total fluke (Ratliff is an exception)
- Dallas outperformed the league average in this metric, but since their win/loss record does not reflect this, does it mean they hold on to underperforming starters too long? Case in point the main drafted 5 years starters over this time were their core defensive players which struggled as a unit.
For interest sake I compared beside it how Dallas faired.
Round 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 Average Dal
1 66% 63% 69% 53% 69% 64% 80% Ware Williams Newman Spears
2 50% 31% 39% 41% 30% 38% 71% Gurode Jones Bryant Burnett Fasano
3 6% 27% 36% 27% 21% 24% 50% Witten Peterman
4 28% 14% 14% 18% 19% 19% 33% James Canty
5 14% 8% 24% 21% 19% 17% 0%
6 13% 5% 8% 7% 3% 7% 0%
7 4% 5% 4% 6% 10% 6% 14% Ratliff
- Trading down for picks is really not worth it.
- 6 and 7 rounds picks are not valuable and success is a total fluke (Ratliff is an exception)
- Dallas outperformed the league average in this metric, but since their win/loss record does not reflect this, does it mean they hold on to underperforming starters too long? Case in point the main drafted 5 years starters over this time were their core defensive players which struggled as a unit.
