Draft trade tracker

[Risen Star]

The particulars of the trades made during Day 1 of this draft.

Draft day trades

Steelers trade up for No. 10 pick

Steelers receive:
» 2019 first-round pick (No. 10; select LB Devin Bush)

Broncos receive:
» 2019 first-round pick (No. 20; select TE Noah Fant)
» 2019 second-round pick (No. 52)
» 2020 third-round pick
» (full trade details: click here.)

-

Packers trade up to No. 21

Packers receive:
» 2019 first-round pick (No. 21; select DB Darnell Savage)

Seahawks receive:
» 2019 first-round pick (No. 30; trade to Giants)
» 2019 fourth-round pick (No. 114)
» 2019 fourth-round pick (No. 118)
» (full trade details: click here.)

-

Eagles move up to No. 22

Eagles receive:
» 2019 first-round pick (No. 22; select OT Andre Dillard)

Ravens receive:
» 2019 first-round pick (No. 25; select WR Marquise Brown)
» 2019 fourth-round pick (No. 127)
» 2019 sixth-round pick (No. 197)
» (full trade details: click here.)

-

Commanders trade for 26th pick

Commanders receive:
» 2019 first-round pick (No. 26; select Edge Montez Sweat)

Colts receive:
» 2019 second-round pick (No. 46)
» 2020 second-round pick
» (full trade details: click here.)

-

Giants jump back into first round

Giants receive:
» 2019 first-round pick (No. 30; select CB Deandre Baker)

Seahawks receive:
» 2019 second-round pick (No. 37)
» 2019 fourth-round pick (No. 132)
» 2019 fifth-round pick (No. 142)
» (full trade details: click here.)

-

Falcons bounce back into first

Falcons receive:
» 2019 first-round pick (No. 31; select OT Kaleb McGary)
» 2019 sixth-round pick (No. 203)

Rams receive:
» 2019 second-round pick (No. 45)
» 2019 third-round pick (No. 79)
» (full trade details: click here.)

 

[Risen Star]

If you take the two trades together, the Seahawks traded down from 21 to 37 for three 4th round picks and a 5th round pick.

 

[Longboysfan]

If you take the two trades together, the Seahawks traded down from 21 to 37 for three 4th round picks and a 5th round pick.

Maybe the Seahawks see gold in the 4th round.

 

[Longboysfan]

The Commanders move up did not cost them that much.

 

[Robbieac]

I am glad the Eagles, Skins, and Giants burned so much draft capital for “meh” players.

Good job!

 

[Carson]

The Commanders move up did not cost them that much.

Yeah what a steal. A late first rounder for a second and next years. Good deal for them

 

[DFWJC]

The particulars of the trades made during Day 1 of this draft.

Draft day trades

Steelers trade up for No. 10 pick

Steelers receive:
» 2019 first-round pick (No. 10; select LB Devin Bush)

Broncos receive:
» 2019 first-round pick (No. 20; select TE Noah Fant)
» 2019 second-round pick (No. 52)
» 2020 third-round pick
» (full trade details: click here.)

-

Packers trade up to No. 21

Packers receive:
» 2019 first-round pick (No. 21; select DB Darnell Savage)

Seahawks receive:
» 2019 first-round pick (No. 30; trade to Giants)
» 2019 fourth-round pick (No. 114)
» 2019 fourth-round pick (No. 118)
» (full trade details: click here.)

-

Eagles move up to No. 22

Eagles receive:
» 2019 first-round pick (No. 22; select OT Andre Dillard)

Ravens receive:
» 2019 first-round pick (No. 25; select WR Marquise Brown)
» 2019 fourth-round pick (No. 127)
» 2019 sixth-round pick (No. 197)
» (full trade details: click here.)

-

Commanders trade for 26th pick

Commanders receive:
» 2019 first-round pick (No. 26; select Edge Montez Sweat)

Colts receive:
» 2019 second-round pick (No. 46)
» 2020 second-round pick
» (full trade details: click here.)

-

Giants jump back into first round

Giants receive:
» 2019 first-round pick (No. 30; select CB Deandre Baker)

Seahawks receive:
» 2019 second-round pick (No. 37)
» 2019 fourth-round pick (No. 132)
» 2019 fifth-round pick (No. 142)
» (full trade details: click here.)

-

Falcons bounce back into first

Falcons receive:
» 2019 first-round pick (No. 31; select OT Kaleb McGary)
» 2019 sixth-round pick (No. 203)

Rams receive:
» 2019 second-round pick (No. 45)
» 2019 third-round pick (No. 79)
» (full trade details: click here.)

It's amazing how close many teams still use the old trade value chart. They experimented with others for a few years but the last few years have been uncanny.

All 6 trades were within 10% and most were within 3%

For examples

Pittsburgh/Denver

Pick 10 = 1300
for
pick 20 (850) + pick 52 (380) + 2020 3rd (same as 2019 mid 4th or 70) = 1300

or

Philly/Baltimore

Pick 22 = 780
for
pick 25 (720) + pick 127 (45) + pick 197 (13) = 778

 

[Pants]

so trading our 2nd and 4th picks gets us to move up to 53 or so (ycch), but our 2nd and 3rd gets us high in the 2nd? no, Jerry, no

 

[xwalker]

If you take the two trades together, the Seahawks traded down from 21 to 37 for three 4th round picks and a 5th round pick.

They lose the 5th year option.

The 5th year option itself is probably worth a 4th.

 

[Killerinstinct]

Seattle likes 4th round picks so much. Maybe we could trade our two fourths for their 3rd.

 

[JD_KaPow]

It's amazing how close many teams still use the old trade value chart. They experimented with others for a few years but the last few years have been uncanny.

All 6 trades were within 10% and most were within 3%

The more recent analytically-based charts basically agree that the JJ chart overrates 1st-rounders and underrates 2nd-rounders. In general, the "true" distribution is much flatter. But GMs and coaches all think they're geniuses and overrate their ability to identify "that guy" they've got to have.

The recent curveball, as someone mentioned, is the 5th-year option. That really does mean a bump in value for 1st-rounders relative to everyone else, which may mean the JJ chart is a little better for trades involving 1st-rounders than it was before the 5th-round option was a thing.

 

[DFWJC]

The more recent analytically-based charts basically agree that the JJ chart overrates 1st-rounders and underrates 2nd-rounders. In general, the "true" distribution is much flatter. But GMs and coaches all think they're geniuses and overrate their ability to identify "that guy" they've got to have.

The recent curveball, as someone mentioned, is the 5th-year option. That really does mean a bump in value for 1st-rounders relative to everyone else, which may mean the JJ chart is a little better for trades involving 1st-rounders than it was before the 5th-round option was a thing.

Other than the wild multiple present and future picks used for chasing QBs, I have seen almost no big outliers the last few years using the JJ chart.
As you said, maybe the 5th year option pulled it back in line.

It's been shockingly accurate.
Like I said, almost always 90% or better, and usually closer to 3%

Of course, anytime future picks are involved there will be a little more variance because of speculation on where the pick will be.

 

[JD_KaPow]

Other than the wild multiple present and future picks used for chasing QBs, I have seen almost no big outliers the last few years using the JJ chart.
As you said, maybe the 5th year option pulled it back in line.

It's been shockingly accurate.
Like I said, almost always 90% or better, and usually closer to 3%

Of course, anytime future picks are involved there will be a little more variance because of speculation on where the pick will be.

I'm not arguing that teams don't use it. I do believe that other charts are better reflections of true comparative value of draft picks, with the exception of not accounting for the 5th-year option. It says to me that teams are willing to pay a premium to move up, and they've just kind of agreed on the JJ chart as a measure of the premium they're willing to pay.