Drafting WR in 1st RD the last three years has been a losing proposition

Most of the fans from the DCMB were never high on guys like Ross, Coleman, Fuller, Agholor, etc. The best of the bunch — Davis, White, Williams — all battled injuries. The only real assessment we can make is drafting bad players & good players getting injured is a bad proposition.
 
I don't think this is a phenomenon limited to just three years. My gut feeling is O-line, Safties and LB's tend to do well when drafted in the 1st round. And QB's taken in the top 5. But WR's is top of the bust list IMO.
 
I think Mosher typically has good takes but this one misses the mark.

Alot of those guys named on there simply have had bad injury luck (Kevin White, John Ross, Corey Davis, Breshard Perriman, Doctson and Mike Williams).

Other guys like Corey Coleman are victims of poor QB play. And some guys like Treadwell and Dorsett are just busts which happens at every position in any year.

I just don't think you can look at recent history in a vacuum without added context and try to use it as some sort predictor. It's no different than a guy playing roulette thinking a certain color is going to come up because its hit on red the last three spins; there's no relationship between the failures or successes in each draft.
 
CalPolyTechnique said:
I think Mosher typically has good takes but this one misses the mark.

Alot of those guys named on there simply have had bad injury luck (Kevin White, John Ross, Corey Davis, Breshard Perriman, Doctson and Mike Williams).

Other guys like Corey Coleman are victims of poor QB play. And some guys like Treadwell and Dorsett are just busts which happens at every position in any year.

I just don't think you can look at recent history in a vacuum without added context and try to use it as some sort predictor. It's no different than a guy playing roulette thinking a certain color is going to come up because its hit on red the last three spins; there's no relationship between the failures or successes in each draft.
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Some undergrad with too much time actually came to the same conclusion analyzing earlier data

https://fisherpub.sjfc.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1064&context=sport_undergrad


"Where the results get interesting is when one would analyze the running backs and wide receivers from the 2008 draft to the 2012 draft. Findings show that 60% of running backs as well as wide receivers who were drafted in the third through seventh round of the NFL draft actually have had higher average career statistics in the categories that each position was compared in. This means that in the data’s sample size, running backs and wide receivers that were drafted in the late rounds of the NFL draft ended up being more successful than the first and second round players from each respective draft year."
 
DanA said:
I don't think this is a phenomenon limited to just three years. My gut feeling is O-line, Safties and LB's tend to do well when drafted in the 1st round. And QB's taken in the top 5. But WR's is top of the bust list IMO.
Click to expand...

Read more than a few times from NFL people WR position probably requires the biggest adjustment for rookies coming to NFL. Use to being open in college since they rarely see man coverages or bum and run at LOS. In NFL they are consistently challenged, most times at the LOS. Not use to tight coverage........
 
xwalker said:
Yes, he intentionally picked a time frame to avoid including them.
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Ah.

I generally don't pay much attention to such assertions. Way too many factors involved, and talent at each positions varies enormously from draft to draft. Then you have teams taking mid round talent in the 1st.
 
From someone who knows Davis personally and has seen him play going back to college IF (and it’s a big IF) he stays healthy he has the ball skills of Moss as evidenced in the playoff game. He’s about Dez’s speed so not the home run threat every time but if Mariota learns how to throw he’ll be a top 10 WR in the league in 2 years.
 
Relying on Dez for another year after what he hasn’t shown the past three years would be an even bigger losing proposition

Draft won, sign one, get Switz in the mix!
 
CalPolyTechnique said:
I think Mosher typically has good takes but this one misses the mark.

Alot of those guys named on there simply have had bad injury luck (Kevin White, John Ross, Corey Davis, Breshard Perriman, Doctson and Mike Williams).

Other guys like Corey Coleman are victims of poor QB play. And some guys like Treadwell and Dorsett are just busts which happens at every position in any year.

I just don't think you can look at recent history in a vacuum without added context and try to use it as some sort predictor. It's no different than a guy playing roulette thinking a certain color is going to come up because its hit on red the last three spins; there's no relationship between the failures or successes in each draft.
Click to expand...

Exactly. Even a guy like Fuller had injury issues and bad QB play. Last year, he was OK with Savage but then when the Texans started Watson against Seattle, Fuller went on a 4 game run where he had 7 TDs before getting hurt.
 
There are a few WRs that come out every so many years that are so good they make a huge impact their first season ala Moss.

I don't see that type of 1st round WR in this class.

I see some good WRs that might start off as 2s and may eventually become ones and good ones...but nobody who will come out of the gate like a Moss, Julio or Megatron did. Just not that top end talent like those rare guys.
 
1st round is too premium for a position that can go quarters without really having any impact. Try to find a 2nd/3rd sleeper for something like a JuJu imo. We really need a blazer to push the safeties back for sure.
 
The biggest issue for wide receivers coming out of college these days is that very few of them are good route runners, and are capable of running a full route tree. The spread offenses limit the requirements of the receivers, and it doesn't prepare them as well for the pro style game.

And, then you have guys like Amari Cooper, who have the ability to run good routes and run all of them well, and he suddenly can't catch the football.
 
WRs with the measurables of Julio Jones or Megatron are definitely worth a top 5 pick though I will say.

No superbowls yadda yadda, you just need to surround them with the proper talent and scheme.
 
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