Creeper
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Since I think DT is an issue for Dallas, I went back to look at every draft since 2000 to see how DTs have turned out after being drafted in to the NFL.
I used making a pro-bowl as a measurement of whether the pick was good or not. I admit, there are many effective DTs that never made it to a pro bowl as a selection or an alternate. Guys like Sheldon Rankins, Christian Wilkins, and Star Letulelei were/are good DTs but never made it to the pro-bowl. So the analysis is a bit flawed, I admit. However, I did not want it to be me making judgements so pro-bowl is I guess a reasonable measurement.
Since 2000, about 477 DTs were drafted by all teams. A total of 43 made it to a pro-bowl. That's 9%. of the 43, 26 were drafted in the first round (out of 72 1st round DTs picked). Five were drafted in the 2nd (out of 52). Five in the 3rd (out of 80). 4 in the 4th (out of 62). 2 in the 5th out of 59, 0 in the 6th out of 75, and 1 out of 78 in the 7th. That one in the 7th was Jay Ratliff drafted by the Cowboys.
As much as I have complained about the Cowboys not drafting DTs, the fact is opportunity has been as much of the problem as choice. The best DTs are usually gone before Dallas picks.
But the fact remains, since 2000 the Cowboys have used 0 first round picks on a DT, and only 1 2nd round pick - Trysten Hill in 2019. But that year 6 DTs were taken in the 1st round. 3 of them have gone on to a pro-bowl selection. Hill was the only DT drafted in the 2nd round, and only 4 more were taken in the 3rd and 4th rounds. No DT taken after Hill amounted to anything much. Maybe the Cowboys forced that pick because they wanted a DT and too the best of the rest which was not very good.
Over that period, four teams used 6 1st and 2nd round picks on DTs. They are the Eagles, Giants, Lions, and Patriots. The Cowboys and Raiders made only 1 DT selection in the first 2 rounds. The least of anyone.
The most all-pro DTs any team selected is 2. 12 teams have done that that. The Bucs and Jets got two all-pros out of 3 DT selections. All teams in the NFC East have picked 2 pro bowl DTs in the first two round except Dallas. But the Giants picked some other good ones like Johnathan Hankins, Linval Joseph, Cornelius Griffin, and Dalvin Tomlinson. The seem to know how to pick DTs.
Finally, there have been some really good years for DTs, and some really bad ones. In 2001, 8 DTs were taken in the first 2 rounds. 5 of them made a pro-bowl. In 2010, 9 DTs were picked in the first two rounds. 3 made a pro-bowl. On the other hand, in 2021 there were no DTs taken in the first round and only 2 in the 2nd. In 2022, 3 were taken in the first 2 rounds. 4 were taken in 2020. 6 were taken in the 1st round in 2019, the last good year, so it seems like we are due for a decent class of DTs.
What does all this mean? I think 2 things. First, if you need a DT to fill a big hole in the defense, you cannot wait until the 3rd round to find one. If there is one you like, you have to go up and get him. If you get an early pick and there is a stud DT, you have to take him. You won't get another chance later in the draft. Second, there have been some good DTs taken later in the draft but they are very few. Look for greater value position once you get past the first 15 or 20 picks. About 50% of the DTs drafted 20 or higher have made the pro-bowl. After that the percentage drops to just 8% in the 1st round. If you pick a DT after 20, you better feel real good about him. But after 20 you might have better luck finding a star TE or RB. Taking a DT in the 3rd round or later is most likely going to net a JAG. Or maybe your guy is the 1 in 10 that works out.
I used making a pro-bowl as a measurement of whether the pick was good or not. I admit, there are many effective DTs that never made it to a pro bowl as a selection or an alternate. Guys like Sheldon Rankins, Christian Wilkins, and Star Letulelei were/are good DTs but never made it to the pro-bowl. So the analysis is a bit flawed, I admit. However, I did not want it to be me making judgements so pro-bowl is I guess a reasonable measurement.
Since 2000, about 477 DTs were drafted by all teams. A total of 43 made it to a pro-bowl. That's 9%. of the 43, 26 were drafted in the first round (out of 72 1st round DTs picked). Five were drafted in the 2nd (out of 52). Five in the 3rd (out of 80). 4 in the 4th (out of 62). 2 in the 5th out of 59, 0 in the 6th out of 75, and 1 out of 78 in the 7th. That one in the 7th was Jay Ratliff drafted by the Cowboys.
As much as I have complained about the Cowboys not drafting DTs, the fact is opportunity has been as much of the problem as choice. The best DTs are usually gone before Dallas picks.
But the fact remains, since 2000 the Cowboys have used 0 first round picks on a DT, and only 1 2nd round pick - Trysten Hill in 2019. But that year 6 DTs were taken in the 1st round. 3 of them have gone on to a pro-bowl selection. Hill was the only DT drafted in the 2nd round, and only 4 more were taken in the 3rd and 4th rounds. No DT taken after Hill amounted to anything much. Maybe the Cowboys forced that pick because they wanted a DT and too the best of the rest which was not very good.
Over that period, four teams used 6 1st and 2nd round picks on DTs. They are the Eagles, Giants, Lions, and Patriots. The Cowboys and Raiders made only 1 DT selection in the first 2 rounds. The least of anyone.
The most all-pro DTs any team selected is 2. 12 teams have done that that. The Bucs and Jets got two all-pros out of 3 DT selections. All teams in the NFC East have picked 2 pro bowl DTs in the first two round except Dallas. But the Giants picked some other good ones like Johnathan Hankins, Linval Joseph, Cornelius Griffin, and Dalvin Tomlinson. The seem to know how to pick DTs.
Finally, there have been some really good years for DTs, and some really bad ones. In 2001, 8 DTs were taken in the first 2 rounds. 5 of them made a pro-bowl. In 2010, 9 DTs were picked in the first two rounds. 3 made a pro-bowl. On the other hand, in 2021 there were no DTs taken in the first round and only 2 in the 2nd. In 2022, 3 were taken in the first 2 rounds. 4 were taken in 2020. 6 were taken in the 1st round in 2019, the last good year, so it seems like we are due for a decent class of DTs.
What does all this mean? I think 2 things. First, if you need a DT to fill a big hole in the defense, you cannot wait until the 3rd round to find one. If there is one you like, you have to go up and get him. If you get an early pick and there is a stud DT, you have to take him. You won't get another chance later in the draft. Second, there have been some good DTs taken later in the draft but they are very few. Look for greater value position once you get past the first 15 or 20 picks. About 50% of the DTs drafted 20 or higher have made the pro-bowl. After that the percentage drops to just 8% in the 1st round. If you pick a DT after 20, you better feel real good about him. But after 20 you might have better luck finding a star TE or RB. Taking a DT in the 3rd round or later is most likely going to net a JAG. Or maybe your guy is the 1 in 10 that works out.
