Early Rough and Dirty Analysis on Potential Pick at 27

[Woods]

I'm sure all of us have been trying to figure out which group of players we think would be available to the Cowboys at 27 (assuming the team stays at pick 27).

Thus far (though it's early days), I've tried to narrow the field down as follows:


Players Most Likely Gone at 27 (i.e., relatively high probability as we sit here today these players could already be drafted by pick 27)

DT: 1. Suh, 2. McCoy
FS: 3. Berry
QB: 4. Bradford, 5. Clausen
LB: 6. McLain
WR: 7. D Bryant
CB: 8. Hayden
DE: 9. D Morgan
RB: 10. Spiller
OT: 11. Okung, 12. Bulaga, 13. Davis, 14. T Williams

Next, in no particular order, here's my best guess at the next grouping of players Likely gone by pick 27

DT/NT: 15. D Williams
FS: 16. E Thomas
LB: 17. S Kindle
DE: 18. Dunlap
OT: 19. B Campbell


Finally, here's my guess at a couple of players who I Think could be gone due to the key positions that they play or exceptional circumstances.

CB: 20. Either K Wilson or P Robinson. I think that at least 2 CBs will be taken before pick 27. One will be Haden and I'm guessing the other will be either K Wilson or P Robinson. My rationale is that CBs are considered cornerstone players by many teams, and as the league is increasingly a passing league, CBs could be considered even more critical.

DE/OLB: 21. B Graham. Again, it's just that pass-rushers are so critical, and if an accomplished one is available, he is in high demand. Though Graham is relatively short, he has clear pass rushing skills, and I think a team who needs a pass rusher will not wait until Round 2.

OG: 22. Iupati. O.K. Maybe OG is not considered a "key" position and teams typically wait until later to draft OGs. But it appears that Iupati is one of the exceptions.

OK, of the remaining consensus top picks, who is remaining?

In no particular order,

DT
23. Odrick
24. Price

LB
25. S Weatherspoon
26. B Spikes

WR
27. G Tate

CB
28. Either K Wilson or P Robinson

Center
29. Pouncey

TE
No one as of right now, IMO.

OT
30. C Brown

So, my best guess as of today is that at least four of the players between numbers 23 to 30 will be available to us at pick 27.

Comments?

EDIT: I haven't included T Mays (Safety) in this ranking. He's the wildcard.

 

[Gaede]

That's a pretty good analysis. I agree someone will take another Cb before our pick...Wilson probably, cause he's got the momentum right now.

The one thing I would change is I see Clausen sliding pretty far, like Rodgers, and Leinart did a few years ago. In his place, I could see a guy like Charles Brown going higher than expected. Athletic LT who may go a little earlier than expected because there is an early run on the position and a team gets needy and reaches. I think something similar happened either last year or the year before.

Another scenario I see is that someone falls in love with Tate (dolphins?) and he goes high. Again, this is a replay of last year, in which Britt snuck into the first round because there were many talented WR drafted before him.

 

[Alexander]

Out of the choices you presented, I would want Odrick. I think he will be a special player and a difference maker at DE we do not have currently.

 

[AmishCowboy]

I'm torn between Odrick and Pouncey.

 

[Woods]

That's a pretty good analysis. I agree someone will take another Cb before our pick...Wilson probably, cause he's got the momentum right now.

The one thing I would change is I see Clausen sliding pretty far, like Rodgers, and Leinart did a few years ago. In his place, I could see a guy like Charles Brown going higher than expected. Athletic LT who may go a little earlier than expected because there is an early run on the position and a team gets needy and reaches. I think something similar happened either last year or the year before.

Another scenario I see is that someone falls in love with Tate (dolphins?) and he goes high. Again, this is a replay of last year, in which Britt snuck into the first round because there were many talented WR drafted before him.

Good points.

As for Tate, I was thinking of putting him in my "Likely" grouping. That said, with respect to Miami, for example, I think they have a real need at both NT (Fergy's age) and at OLB as Porter will be released. Also, BP doesn't really like to draft WRs in Round 1. Terry Glenn was somewhat forced upon BP as I understand.

EDIT: You may be right about Clausen, but I was thinking that it's very likely he's gone by 27. Just playing the odds.

 

[Woods]

I'm torn between Odrick and Pouncey.

The only thing about Pouncey is that I believe at the Combine his weight was "only" around 305 lbs.

I think the Cowboys like them a bit bigger, esp in the interior of the OL.

 

[TheSport78]

The only thing about Pouncey is that I believe at the Combine his weight was "only" around 305 lbs.

I think the Cowboys like them a bit bigger, esp in the interior of the OL.

Gurode's around 315 I believe, with our strength program he would have no problem putting on 10 lbs.

 

[TheCount]

I'm not in love with any of the choices you leave us with at that slot, except maybe Spikes. And maybe, MAYBE, Odrick.

I still don't get the love for Pouncey. You don't take a center in the first and everyone says, oh but it he can play guard. Well you don't take a Center who maybe can play guard in the first because you don't take a guard in the 1st unless they are an elite prospect at the position.

Then everyone says, move Gurode to guard and have Pouncey play center. Well then we have two problems, moving a pro bowl center out of position and still drafting a center in the 1st.

Then everyone says, but he's so versatile, he can play any position on the line! Well you don't take a backup to every position on the line in the 1st either because he's still a backup.

 

[Alexander]

I'm not in love with any of the choices you leave us with at that slot, except maybe Spikes. And maybe, MAYBE, Odrick.

I still don't get the love for Pouncey. You don't take a center in the first and everyone says, oh but it he can play guard. Well you don't take a Center who maybe can play guard in the first because you don't take a guard in the 1st unless they are an elite prospect at the position.

Then everyone says, move Gurode to guard and have Pouncey play center. Well then we have two problems, moving a pro bowl center out of position and still drafting a center in the 1st.

Then everyone says, but he's so versatile, he can play any position on the line! Well you don't take a backup to every position on the line in the 1st either because he's still a backup.

Pouncey has been getting comparisons to Alex Mack in recent weeks. If he is as good as Mack, he would at least be our top interior backup at the guard spot and Gurode's heir apparent. Practically any draft choice will be a reserve, the question becomes at how many spots and at what spot. How much could they be asked to play. A center/guard who can backup two or three spots on the line would be a definite need for this team. It would be far more useful than another WR, for example.

I do not believe there is the necessity to insert him immediately and move Gurode. But in a few years time, he would be groomed to start at center. He started at right guard at Florida early in his career, so he then becomes Davis' backup immediately and could be moved to left guard. Kosier is only going to be here another year unless he is resigned after his contract runs out at the end of the season.

I still would prefer Odrick, but he would do as well.

 

[AmishCowboy]

Pouncey has been getting comparisons to Alex Mack in recent weeks. If he is as good as Mack, he would at least be our top interior backup at the guard spot and Gurode's heir apparent. Practically any draft choice will be a reserve, the question becomes at how many spots and at what spot. How much could they be asked to play. A center/guard who can backup two or three spots on the line would be a definite need for this team. It would be far more useful than another WR, for example.

I do not believe there is the necessity to insert him immediately and move Gurode. But in a few years time, he would be groomed to start at center. He started at right guard at Florida early in his career, so he then becomes Davis' backup immediately and could be moved to left guard. Kosier is only going to be here another year unless he is resigned after his contract runs out at the end of the season.

I still would prefer Odrick, but he would do as well.

Well said!

 

[junk]

If I had to guess now, I'd say Pouncey is the pick. With the whole Unger thing last year, it just seems like a route the front office would want to take.