Ebay buyout rumor

[Kangaroo]

http://www.tgdaily.com/2006/05/30/gossip_microsoft_buying_ebay/





Gossip: Microsoft interested in Ebay?

Humphrey Cheung
May 30, 2006 19:23


The New York Post is reporting that Microsoft may be out to buy Ebay. Several anonymous sources with the paper say the talks have been going on for several weeks and Microsoft plans on merging the online auctioneer with Microsoft's MSN portal. The talks are continuing, but have slowed down because executives are concerned about antitrust issues, the publication claims.
So far neither eBay nor Microsoft have commented on the rumo

 

[YosemiteSam]

No way. Microsoft's value is slipping which would make an acquisition like Ebay a great buy. The problem is, Ebay is growing at a substantial rate and selling out to Microsoft wouldn't help it would only hurt. Plus, MS has about a $240 billion cap and Ebay has about a $40 billion cap and Ebay would surely want a large sum of liquid assets which would put a severe drain on MS's liquidity and MS's position right now requires a lot of liquidity. (since many places they've always dominated are losing position and places they are growing (XBOX) are so costly that they will not be profitable for a LONG time if ever.

One of MS's problems (IMHO) is that they over complicate things. Ebay would be stacking on another 800 pound gorilla complication since Ebay also likes to roll in complicated endeavors. (Ebay itself, Paypal, Skype)

 

[Reality]

Ebay is facing its share of problems as well. First off, it's not still growing at a substantial rate .. Ebay's growth rate, while still positive, is slowing. With Google beta testing their PayPal-competitor (killer?) Gbuy service, there will be a lot of concerns for them in the future.

As for Microsoft, I personally believe they have peaked in the O/S market with Windows XP. Windows Vista being delayed until 2007 only compounds the ongoing problems Microsoft is facing. I own three copies of Windows XP and too many Windows 98, 95, 3.x, etc. (even a 2.0 *laughs*) copies to count yet I will not be buying Windows Vista. Windows is overpriced and extremely bulky and too unstable. A lot of my business associates have stated the same thing as well. A lot of people I know both business-wise and gaming-wise are switching to Apple's new Intel-based iMacs and others are planning to switch to various flavours of linux.

With the availability and quality of console game systems like the Xbox 360 and the upcoming Playstation 3, I expect that most casual gamers will convert over to the consoles for game playing and the computer will become more centered around the internet and web services. While Microsoft's new "Live" service will give them a good start in that market, by moving to server-hosted application services, Microsoft is going to open itself up to a lot more competition than it ever faced with operating systems.

At this point, if Microsoft buys Ebay, I see it more as an act of desperation for both companies who are worried (and rightly so) about their future marketshare for their respective services .. Ebay with auctions and online payments (PayPal) and Microsoft with operating systems and applications.

-Reality

 

[YosemiteSam]

I disagree on some aspects of your reply. Ebay doesn't have any real compition in it's auction site. There are several imitators, but noone that can complete. Paypal will lose some to Google's new pay service, but I doubt that Ebay will accept Google on Ebay. Ebay is it's own biggest ally with Paypal. Ebay is infact still growing through mergers and world-wide expansion. While the explosion has slowed (like Google) it is still growing at a better rate in my opinion. (I believe they were growing to fast before and stumbled because of it) Ebay and Amazon are the Walmart of online shopping and Ebay is winning. The only way I can see Google's new service taking over Paypal is if Google uses the courts (anti-trust) to do so only because Paypal is tied to Ebay. (i.e. ..IE (pun) tied to Windows) Meg Wittman is very smart (though I think Skype was a blunder) She will do what she must to keep Paypal on top.

As for Google; there search is/was revolutionary. There other products have proven to be good or Ok, but not revolutionary. I have a Gmail account and a Yahoo mail account. I find Yahoo mail better though I find them both lacking what I really want/need. Maybe I should just quit telling people it's lacking and create one myself...

 

[YosemiteSam]

The only way I can see Google's new service taking over Paypal is if Google uses the courts (anti-trust) to do so only because Paypal is tied to Ebay. (i.e. ..IE (pun) tied to Windows) Meg Wittman is very smart (though I think Skype was a blunder) She will do what she must to keep Paypal on top.

hah I said it would happen and two days later Ebay bans Google's payment option.

http://yro.slashdot.org/article.pl?sid=06/07/06/232209

I suspect Google will do just as I said and will file suit against Ebay.