ejthedj
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I compiled a list of players taken before the Cowboys selection in 20 mock drafts. I only took updated mocks and ones from somewhat respectable sources.
I have done this for a few years now and I find it is very helpful for figuring out what could happen on draft day. It gives you a sense of who is definitely gone and who we might have a shot at getting. It really helps you figure out who to hope is selected before the Cowboys (so we can get the guy you really want).
I know mock drafts are never completely right, but what they do give us is some possible scenarios for the draft. Compiling 20 of the mocks gives us some pretty good insight into many possible scenarios. Then, when the draft takes place, you can see which scenario seems to be happening and cheer accordingly.
Here's the data and my analysis. I will do this again with less than a week to go till draft day.
Definitely Gone – 9 (picked in 20/20 drafts)
Bradford QB
Suh DT
McCoy DT
Okung OT
Bulaga OT
Berry S
Haden CB
Pierre-Paul OLB-DE
McClain LB
Almost Def Gone - 5 (picked in 19/20 drafts)
Claussen QB
Morgan DE/OLB
Williams OT
B. Graham OLB/DE
Spiller RB
Close to Def. Gone – 3 (picked in 18/20 drafts)
A. Davis OT
Campbell OT
Thomas S
These are 17 guys who you can write off your wish list. But the good news is that there are only 9 more players to be selected until we pick.
High Probability They are Gone – 2 (picked in 16-17/20 drafts)
Bryant WR
Gresham TE
These two are most likely gone by the time we pick. But I left Bryant as a possibility just in case the off the field stuff pushes him back to us. If you want Bryant, you can hope. But it's not much hope.
On the other hand, we need to root hard that Gresham gets taken before our pick since this is not a position of interest for us in the first round.
This takes the total to 19 guys. Now only 7 picks until us!
75% Chance they are gone – 5 (picked in 14-15/20 drafts)
Mays S
D. Williams DT
Iupati OG
S. Kindle OLB-DE
Weatherspoon LB
A couple of comments here... If you really want Iupati, the chances are not awful. Guards tend to slip, and it seems like in most drafts if he gets past Pitt, he slides to us. Yet, the odds are still stacked against us.
We should really hope Williams and Kindle go before us. They are not going to be our first round picks even if they slip.
Finally, Mays and Weatherspoon are question marks. We heard Dallas has a first round grade on Mays, so if you like him maybe root for some of the other players below to go first. The chances seem about equal to Iupati. I don't want Mays so this is another person I am cheering on (for another team to take).
Weatherspoon is someone I would love to have. He has baller written all over him. He's another possibility, but it doesn't seem like the Cowboys have shown much interest even though we have expressed interest in ILB.
It seems like the good news is that we are now at 24 players. If all of the above players are taken as expected, we almost get our pick of the litter from what is left. (2 more guys will be taken).
50% Chance – 3 (picked in 10-12/20 drafts)
Griffen DE-OLB
Wilson CB
Dunlap DE-OLB
I'm really pulling for Wilson as our most likely first round pick (if no spoon or iupati). So, we gotta cheer hard for two of the remaining to be picked ahead of us. If I hear Dunlap or Griffen called before us, I will be cheering. And now you will know why. In fact, one of the best things that could happen would be for there to be a big run on OLB-DE types. It might force someone to take Dunlap or Griffen or Hughes, then we'd have more chances.
Next Highest – 4 (picked in 6-8/20 drafts)
Odrick DE-DT
Matthews RB
Brown OT
Price DT
This group does not strike my fancy at all. The team brought in Odrick, but I am hoping that is as a last resort ((no trade down and no luck above)). Everyone hope Odrick gets picked before us, too! Also, a Matthews pick before us would be huge since we do not need a RB.
Now, what about Brown? Doesn't seem to fit the Cowboys mold, so maybe a run on OT would cause Brown to go higher and we would get higher chances at a player we like more again.
High Probability Will Be There (picked in 3-5/20 drafts)
Pouncey C/OG
Tate WR
McCourty CB
Hughes DE-OLB
If we miss out on Wilson, too, then I am hoping for either Tate or Pouncey. Both seem like safe picks at positions of need. I would call Pouncey or Tate as a worst case scenario, which seems pretty good to me.
Also Rans (1 vote)
Robinson CB
Benn WR
I hear we like Benn? Who cares. This is not our pick unless we trade down.
In short, there are 17 players almost certainly gone before us. That leaves 9 more gone before we pick.
Here are my conclusions:
1) I think our preferred 9 (to go before us) would be Gresham, Kindle, D. Williams, Griffen, Dunlap, Odrick, Matthews, Price, and Brown. These are all somewhat realistic possibilities.
2) If these were the other 9, then a dream scenario would unfold.
We would have our pick of:
Bryant
Mays
Iupati
Weatherspoon
Wilson
Pouncey
Tate
3) Every time someone gets picked off of this dream list, though, gets us one 1/9th closer to our pick. Every time someone gets picked off the preferred 9 list, we get higher possibilities of getting a guy we want.
4) Seems like we are more than likely looking at:
Long-shot dream scenario (Bryant)
50-50 upside scenario (one of Iupati, Weatherspoon, Wilson)
Worst case scenario (one of Pouncey, Tate, Odrick).
5) Cheer for a run on OT, DT, and OLB-DE! If this happens, we are getting lucky.
6) Cheer for the preferred 9 to get selected.
7) If the worst case scenario starts to unfold, it is like pick 24 or 25, and there are only 2 of Iupati/Spoon/Wilson left, I think we have to think about a small trade up. Will a 6th do it? And maybe a 5th next year?
Now you know how to cheer during the draft's first round!
I have done this for a few years now and I find it is very helpful for figuring out what could happen on draft day. It gives you a sense of who is definitely gone and who we might have a shot at getting. It really helps you figure out who to hope is selected before the Cowboys (so we can get the guy you really want).
I know mock drafts are never completely right, but what they do give us is some possible scenarios for the draft. Compiling 20 of the mocks gives us some pretty good insight into many possible scenarios. Then, when the draft takes place, you can see which scenario seems to be happening and cheer accordingly.
Here's the data and my analysis. I will do this again with less than a week to go till draft day.
Definitely Gone – 9 (picked in 20/20 drafts)
Bradford QB
Suh DT
McCoy DT
Okung OT
Bulaga OT
Berry S
Haden CB
Pierre-Paul OLB-DE
McClain LB
Almost Def Gone - 5 (picked in 19/20 drafts)
Claussen QB
Morgan DE/OLB
Williams OT
B. Graham OLB/DE
Spiller RB
Close to Def. Gone – 3 (picked in 18/20 drafts)
A. Davis OT
Campbell OT
Thomas S
These are 17 guys who you can write off your wish list. But the good news is that there are only 9 more players to be selected until we pick.
High Probability They are Gone – 2 (picked in 16-17/20 drafts)
Bryant WR
Gresham TE
These two are most likely gone by the time we pick. But I left Bryant as a possibility just in case the off the field stuff pushes him back to us. If you want Bryant, you can hope. But it's not much hope.
On the other hand, we need to root hard that Gresham gets taken before our pick since this is not a position of interest for us in the first round.
This takes the total to 19 guys. Now only 7 picks until us!
75% Chance they are gone – 5 (picked in 14-15/20 drafts)
Mays S
D. Williams DT
Iupati OG
S. Kindle OLB-DE
Weatherspoon LB
A couple of comments here... If you really want Iupati, the chances are not awful. Guards tend to slip, and it seems like in most drafts if he gets past Pitt, he slides to us. Yet, the odds are still stacked against us.
We should really hope Williams and Kindle go before us. They are not going to be our first round picks even if they slip.
Finally, Mays and Weatherspoon are question marks. We heard Dallas has a first round grade on Mays, so if you like him maybe root for some of the other players below to go first. The chances seem about equal to Iupati. I don't want Mays so this is another person I am cheering on (for another team to take).
Weatherspoon is someone I would love to have. He has baller written all over him. He's another possibility, but it doesn't seem like the Cowboys have shown much interest even though we have expressed interest in ILB.
It seems like the good news is that we are now at 24 players. If all of the above players are taken as expected, we almost get our pick of the litter from what is left. (2 more guys will be taken).
50% Chance – 3 (picked in 10-12/20 drafts)
Griffen DE-OLB
Wilson CB
Dunlap DE-OLB
I'm really pulling for Wilson as our most likely first round pick (if no spoon or iupati). So, we gotta cheer hard for two of the remaining to be picked ahead of us. If I hear Dunlap or Griffen called before us, I will be cheering. And now you will know why. In fact, one of the best things that could happen would be for there to be a big run on OLB-DE types. It might force someone to take Dunlap or Griffen or Hughes, then we'd have more chances.
Next Highest – 4 (picked in 6-8/20 drafts)
Odrick DE-DT
Matthews RB
Brown OT
Price DT
This group does not strike my fancy at all. The team brought in Odrick, but I am hoping that is as a last resort ((no trade down and no luck above)). Everyone hope Odrick gets picked before us, too! Also, a Matthews pick before us would be huge since we do not need a RB.
Now, what about Brown? Doesn't seem to fit the Cowboys mold, so maybe a run on OT would cause Brown to go higher and we would get higher chances at a player we like more again.
High Probability Will Be There (picked in 3-5/20 drafts)
Pouncey C/OG
Tate WR
McCourty CB
Hughes DE-OLB
If we miss out on Wilson, too, then I am hoping for either Tate or Pouncey. Both seem like safe picks at positions of need. I would call Pouncey or Tate as a worst case scenario, which seems pretty good to me.
Also Rans (1 vote)
Robinson CB
Benn WR
I hear we like Benn? Who cares. This is not our pick unless we trade down.
In short, there are 17 players almost certainly gone before us. That leaves 9 more gone before we pick.
Here are my conclusions:
1) I think our preferred 9 (to go before us) would be Gresham, Kindle, D. Williams, Griffen, Dunlap, Odrick, Matthews, Price, and Brown. These are all somewhat realistic possibilities.
2) If these were the other 9, then a dream scenario would unfold.
We would have our pick of:
Bryant
Mays
Iupati
Weatherspoon
Wilson
Pouncey
Tate
3) Every time someone gets picked off of this dream list, though, gets us one 1/9th closer to our pick. Every time someone gets picked off the preferred 9 list, we get higher possibilities of getting a guy we want.
4) Seems like we are more than likely looking at:
Long-shot dream scenario (Bryant)
50-50 upside scenario (one of Iupati, Weatherspoon, Wilson)
Worst case scenario (one of Pouncey, Tate, Odrick).
5) Cheer for a run on OT, DT, and OLB-DE! If this happens, we are getting lucky.
6) Cheer for the preferred 9 to get selected.
7) If the worst case scenario starts to unfold, it is like pick 24 or 25, and there are only 2 of Iupati/Spoon/Wilson left, I think we have to think about a small trade up. Will a 6th do it? And maybe a 5th next year?
Now you know how to cheer during the draft's first round!
