THUMPER
Papa
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I do not foresee a time when a player will be able to break Emmitt's record and here's 5 reasons why (There are probably more factors involved that I didn't list here but these should suffice.):
1. He has to play for a team that is good for a long time. In order to get the carries he needs, the team needs to be in the lead a lot, or extremely committed to the run. That also requires the coaching staff to remain in place for the most part, or at least the offensive philosophy. Emmitt played for a Cowboys team that was in contention for most of his career and an offense that was similar for most of it as well. We never went to a WCO style but stuck with a balanced style despite the coaching changes.
2. He must stay healthy. Most players can't stay healthy enough to be a feature back for that many years. Emmitt didn't have a significant injury until he was with the Cards (broken collarbone) and that was a fluke, something you can't train for. If you look at the top RBs in NFL history you see guys who were very durable and didn't miss many games.
3. He needs to be the starter. In the current age of the salary cap teams will not keep a guy for as long as they would before. Take Fred Taylor for example. He was still very productive last year but he is getting older and they moved on. The Cowboys were committed to keeping Emmitt and he was productive enough to win the starting job every year. I still think it was stupid (and said so at the time) to let him go and start Troy Hambrick, but Jerry never listens to me.
4. He needs to be the primary ball carrier for a long time. The current practice is to have multiple RBs and distribute the ball in order to take advantage of differing skills and keep guys fresher and healthier. Emmitt could do it all and didn't need to be pulled out of games. He could run on first down or 4th down, he could block on passing downs or catch the ball out of the backfield. He was deadly at the goalline so he wasn't taken out for a short yardage specialist. Most teams use more than one RB even if only in certain situations but Emmitt was the best all-around RB ever so he was never taken out of games.
5. He needs to have that fire and desire to keep playing. Barry Sanders would likely hold the rushing record if he had half the heart and love for the game of football that Emmitt had. People told Emmitt he should retire because he wasn't as elite a RB as he had been in his prime but he still wanted to play. Even after he broke the record and the Cowboys let him go (stupid move) he still had the desire to play football and had a couple of decent years with the Cards, not great but decent. No one dogged Walter Payton for playing beyond his prime but he did and was nowhere near as productive as Emmitt was in his final years.
The bottom line is that too many things have to line up for someone to break that record and there are too many things that are different in today's NFL for that to happen IMO.
I think that the only possibility for someone to break the record is for him to have multiple 2000+ seasons and catch him in 8-10 years but that isn't very likely either.
1. He has to play for a team that is good for a long time. In order to get the carries he needs, the team needs to be in the lead a lot, or extremely committed to the run. That also requires the coaching staff to remain in place for the most part, or at least the offensive philosophy. Emmitt played for a Cowboys team that was in contention for most of his career and an offense that was similar for most of it as well. We never went to a WCO style but stuck with a balanced style despite the coaching changes.
2. He must stay healthy. Most players can't stay healthy enough to be a feature back for that many years. Emmitt didn't have a significant injury until he was with the Cards (broken collarbone) and that was a fluke, something you can't train for. If you look at the top RBs in NFL history you see guys who were very durable and didn't miss many games.
3. He needs to be the starter. In the current age of the salary cap teams will not keep a guy for as long as they would before. Take Fred Taylor for example. He was still very productive last year but he is getting older and they moved on. The Cowboys were committed to keeping Emmitt and he was productive enough to win the starting job every year. I still think it was stupid (and said so at the time) to let him go and start Troy Hambrick, but Jerry never listens to me.
4. He needs to be the primary ball carrier for a long time. The current practice is to have multiple RBs and distribute the ball in order to take advantage of differing skills and keep guys fresher and healthier. Emmitt could do it all and didn't need to be pulled out of games. He could run on first down or 4th down, he could block on passing downs or catch the ball out of the backfield. He was deadly at the goalline so he wasn't taken out for a short yardage specialist. Most teams use more than one RB even if only in certain situations but Emmitt was the best all-around RB ever so he was never taken out of games.
5. He needs to have that fire and desire to keep playing. Barry Sanders would likely hold the rushing record if he had half the heart and love for the game of football that Emmitt had. People told Emmitt he should retire because he wasn't as elite a RB as he had been in his prime but he still wanted to play. Even after he broke the record and the Cowboys let him go (stupid move) he still had the desire to play football and had a couple of decent years with the Cards, not great but decent. No one dogged Walter Payton for playing beyond his prime but he did and was nowhere near as productive as Emmitt was in his final years.
The bottom line is that too many things have to line up for someone to break that record and there are too many things that are different in today's NFL for that to happen IMO.
I think that the only possibility for someone to break the record is for him to have multiple 2000+ seasons and catch him in 8-10 years but that isn't very likely either.