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BackCAST
BackCAST is based on a statistical analysis of Division I halfbacks drafted in the years 1998 to 2022 , and measures the following:
• Weight at the NFL combine
• 40-yard dash at the NFL combine. If he did not run at the combine, BackCAST uses his pro day time
• Yards per attempt with an adjustment for running backs who had fewer carries than an average drafted running back
• "AOEPS," which measures how much, on average, the prospect's team used him in the running game during his career relative to the usage of an average drafted running back during the same year of eligibility
• Receiving yards per game in his college career
BackCAST was developed by Nathan Forster.
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Two running backs were chosen in the top half of the first round of the 2023 NFL draft: Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs at No. 8 and No. 12, respectively. It was the first time that had happened since Leonard Fournette and Christian McCaffrey were selected with the Nos. 4 and 8 overall picks back in 2017.
It's likely that won't happen again in the 2024 NFL draft. In fact, there might be no running backs chosen in this year's first round, as this is a very weak class. Scouts Inc.'s top running back prospect, Texas' Jonathon Brooks, ranks 43rd on their board.
The weak class is compounded by the fact that running backs have fallen in the draft in general over the past few years. NFL teams save their high picks on the true premium positions and draft running backs in later rounds. In addition, there are no highly rated backs in this class who are also seen to be very strong receivers by our BackCAST projection system.
Here is how our projections work. BackCAST projects NFL running back success based on statistics that have correlated with success in the past. Historically, a college running back who has a good size-speed combination, has a high average yards per carry and represented a large percentage of his college team's running attack is more likely to succeed at the NFL level.
BackCAST considers these factors and projects the degree to which the running back will exceed the NFL production of an "average" drafted running back during his first five years in the NFL.
For example, a running back with a +50% BackCAST is projected to gain 50% more yards than the "average" drafted running back. BackCAST also projects whether each running back is likely to be heavily involved in the receiving game or is more of a "ground-and-pound" back.
What follows are some of the notable BackCAST projections for the running back prospects available in the 2024 draft, plus picks for a sleeper and overrated player in this class.
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Projecting the top RBs in the 2024 draft
1. Braelon Allen, Wisconsin
BackCAST score: plus-69.7%
Type of back: Ground-and-pound
Similar historical prospects: Jonathan Stewart, Nick Chubb
Allen is BackCAST's top prospect for 2024. However, his BackCAST score would not make him the top running back prospect in any other season from 1998 to 2023 except for 2005.
There are also reasons to be bearish on this BackCAST projection. Allen is only ranked eighth among running backs by Scouts Inc., and he did not run the 40-yard dash at the combine but did the jumps. He is a large back at 235 pounds, and BackCAST has a history of overprojecting larger backs like Ron Dayne and T.J. Duckett. Allen also won't give you anything in the passing game -- one-dimensional ground-and-pound backs have a low ceiling in today's pass-happy NFL.
What, then, does BackCAST like about Allen? Well, he averaged 5.9 yards per carry for his college career, and he represented a fairly healthy portion of the Wisconsin running game compared to other backs such as Jackson Acker, Chez Mellusi and Isaac Guerendo.
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2. Kimani Vidal, Troy
BackCAST score: plus-38.8%
Type of back: Balanced
Similar historical prospects: Chuba Hubbard, Bishop Sankey
Vidal, who ranks just 10th on Scouts Inc.'s running back board, is a bit of a surprise as BackCAST's No. 2 prospect. The system likes that he ran a 4.46-second 40-yard dash at 213 pounds, which gives him a speed score of 108. He averaged only 5.1 yards per carry during his college career but represented 61% of Troy's running game in his senior year, the highest collegiate peak of any of this year's prospects.
The response to that stat might be, "How important was it that Vidal got carries instead of his teammates? This was Troy, not Alabama. How good were the other backs?" This is a legitimate concern because there isn't a history of great running backs coming out of the Sun Belt conference. Alfred Morris was probably the best of them, coming from Florida Atlantic (no longer in the conference) in 2012. Current Sun Belt backs include Matt Breida (Georgia Southern), Elijah Mitchell (Louisiana) and Darrynton Evans (Appalachian State) all recorded fewer than 300 yards last season.
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3. Trey Benson, Florida State
BackCAST score: plus-28.1%
Type of back: Balanced
Similar historical prospects: Roy Helu Jr., Israel Abanikanda
Like Vidal, Benson has a good BackCAST in part because of a strong speed score. Benson ran the 40-yard dash in 4.39 seconds at 216 pounds, putting his speed score second this year behind Isaac Guerendo (we'll get to him in a moment). Unlike Vidal, Benson was a part-time back for a big-time program instead of a clear starter for a smaller school.
In his final college season, Benson only got 37% of Florida State's carries. He averaged 5.8 yards per carry, but two other Florida State backs with fewer carries (Lawrance Toafili and Caziah Holmes) each averaged over 6.0 yards per carry.
There haven't been a lot of backs who have a low AOEPS but otherwise strong metrics similar to Benson's. The best of these backs, Rachaad White, had much stronger receiving numbers in college. Miles Sanders is another interesting comparable, but he ran a slower 40 at 211 pounds and barely had any receiving yardage in college.
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4. Jaylen Wright, Tennessee
BackCAST score: plus-21.1%
Type of back: Ground-and-pound
Similar historical prospects: Jarrett Ferguson, Zamir White
Wright is somewhat of a rare prospect because backs who only weigh 210 pounds are rarely classified as "ground-and-pound" by a lack of receiving numbers. He had 22 catches in 2023 but only got 6.4 yards per reception. The season before, Wright had more carries than in 2023 (146 compared to 137) but only two receptions.
He had to share carries last season with Dylan Sampson and Jabari Small, which drops his BackCAST a bit, but he was the best of the top three Tennessee backs. He averaged 7.4 yards per carry last season after 6.0 yards per carry in 2022. In fact, Wright was in the weird position of having more yards per carry than yards per reception in all three of his collegiate seasons.
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5. Jonathon Brooks, Texas
BackCAST score: plus-7.3%
Type of back: Receiving
Similar historical prospects: Javonte Williams, Zach Charbonnet
The top Scouts Inc. running back prospect ranks only seventh in BackCAST among the backs invited to this year's combine. Part of the issue is that Brooks only had one season as a college starter, so his 6.2 yards per carry average might be inflated a bit by the small sample size.
BackCAST is also dinging Brooks for being unable to get a major role at Texas until his third season. That might be a bit unfair, considering that his teammates at Texas in 2021-2022 were 2023 NFL draft picks Bijan Robinson and Roschon Johnson. Brooks did not run the 40 at the combine, so that part of his projection has to be estimated.
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The sleeper
Isaac Guerendo, Louisville
BackCAST score: plus-8.4%
Type of back: Balanced
Similar historical prospects: Latavius Murray
Guerendo ran the fastest 40-yard dash among this year's backs at the combine despite weighing in at 221 pounds, which is mind-blowing. His speed score of 125.7 was the third highest measured since 2003. But Guerendo's coaches clearly didn't believe in him in college. He played four seasons at Wisconsin and got a grand total of 99 carries. Even last season, after transferring to Louisville, Guerendo was the No. 2 back behind Jawhar Jordan. (They had similar averages both on carries and receptions.)
This makes finding a comparable for Guerendo extremely difficult. The closest player I found was probably Latavius Murray, who ran a 4.38-second 40-yard dash at 223 pounds and wasn't the No. 1 back at UCF until his final season. And the list of the highest speed scores does not exactly reveal a list of great sleepers.
Saquon Barkley and Brandon Jacobs are on there, but the top names are Keith Marshall, Mario Fannin and Knile Davis. This is a back with a really high ceiling and a really low floor.
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The overrated back
Blake Corum, Michigan
BackCAST score: minus-25.7%
Type of back: Balanced
Similar historical prospects: Devonta Freeman, Jamaal Williams
Corum is Scouts Inc.'s No. 3 running back prospect and some draft boards have him No. 1, but he didn't really do anything that would impress BackCAST. His speed score based on weight and 40 time at the combine was a little below average. His AEOPS, based on how much he was used in the Michigan backfield compared to his teammates, was about average.
Corum only managed 4.8 yards per carry in his final season, so his career yards per carry number is average for this year's draft class. His receiving numbers are low. All his stats are just "meh." And this isn't included in BackCAST, but I will add that he's not considered strong in pass protection either. Corum may have a reasonable NFL career, but BackCAST doesn't think there's much that's very exciting here.
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Projecting The Top Running Backs In The 2024 Class
1. Braelon Allen, Wisconsin 69.7%
2. Kimani Vidal, Troy 38.8%
3. Trey Benson, Florida St. 28.1%
4. Jaylen Wright, Tennessee 21.1%
5. Ray Davis, Kentucky 13.5%
6. Isaac Guerendo, Louisville 8.4%
7. Jonathon Brooks, Texas 7.3%
8. Frank Gore Jr., Southern Miss 1.9%
9. Will Shipley, Clemson -3.9%
10. MarShawn Lloyd, USC -3.9%
11. Bucky Irving, Oregon -4.0%
12. Dillon Johnson, Mississippi St. -14.7%
13. George Holani, Boise St. -17.5%
14. Michael Wiley, Arizona -18.3%
15. Rasheen Ali, Marshall -20.0%
16. Audric Estime, Notre Dame -25.0%
17. Blake Corum, Michigan -25.7%
18. Cody Schrader, Missouri -33.9%
19. Miyan Williams, Ohio St. -34.8%
20. Jase McClellan, Alabama -44.8%
21. Kendall Milton, Georgia -50.5%
22. Tyrone Tracy Jr., Purdue -65.1%
23. Daijun Edwards, Georgia -67.0%
24. Emani Bailey, TCU -77.4%
25. Jawhar Jordan, Louisville -88.7%
26. Keilan Robinson, Texas -101.7
BackCAST is based on a statistical analysis of Division I halfbacks drafted in the years 1998 to 2022 , and measures the following:
• Weight at the NFL combine
• 40-yard dash at the NFL combine. If he did not run at the combine, BackCAST uses his pro day time
• Yards per attempt with an adjustment for running backs who had fewer carries than an average drafted running back
• "AOEPS," which measures how much, on average, the prospect's team used him in the running game during his career relative to the usage of an average drafted running back during the same year of eligibility
• Receiving yards per game in his college career
BackCAST was developed by Nathan Forster.
-
Two running backs were chosen in the top half of the first round of the 2023 NFL draft: Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs at No. 8 and No. 12, respectively. It was the first time that had happened since Leonard Fournette and Christian McCaffrey were selected with the Nos. 4 and 8 overall picks back in 2017.
It's likely that won't happen again in the 2024 NFL draft. In fact, there might be no running backs chosen in this year's first round, as this is a very weak class. Scouts Inc.'s top running back prospect, Texas' Jonathon Brooks, ranks 43rd on their board.
The weak class is compounded by the fact that running backs have fallen in the draft in general over the past few years. NFL teams save their high picks on the true premium positions and draft running backs in later rounds. In addition, there are no highly rated backs in this class who are also seen to be very strong receivers by our BackCAST projection system.
Here is how our projections work. BackCAST projects NFL running back success based on statistics that have correlated with success in the past. Historically, a college running back who has a good size-speed combination, has a high average yards per carry and represented a large percentage of his college team's running attack is more likely to succeed at the NFL level.
BackCAST considers these factors and projects the degree to which the running back will exceed the NFL production of an "average" drafted running back during his first five years in the NFL.
For example, a running back with a +50% BackCAST is projected to gain 50% more yards than the "average" drafted running back. BackCAST also projects whether each running back is likely to be heavily involved in the receiving game or is more of a "ground-and-pound" back.
What follows are some of the notable BackCAST projections for the running back prospects available in the 2024 draft, plus picks for a sleeper and overrated player in this class.
--
Projecting the top RBs in the 2024 draft
1. Braelon Allen, Wisconsin
BackCAST score: plus-69.7%
Type of back: Ground-and-pound
Similar historical prospects: Jonathan Stewart, Nick Chubb
Allen is BackCAST's top prospect for 2024. However, his BackCAST score would not make him the top running back prospect in any other season from 1998 to 2023 except for 2005.
There are also reasons to be bearish on this BackCAST projection. Allen is only ranked eighth among running backs by Scouts Inc., and he did not run the 40-yard dash at the combine but did the jumps. He is a large back at 235 pounds, and BackCAST has a history of overprojecting larger backs like Ron Dayne and T.J. Duckett. Allen also won't give you anything in the passing game -- one-dimensional ground-and-pound backs have a low ceiling in today's pass-happy NFL.
What, then, does BackCAST like about Allen? Well, he averaged 5.9 yards per carry for his college career, and he represented a fairly healthy portion of the Wisconsin running game compared to other backs such as Jackson Acker, Chez Mellusi and Isaac Guerendo.
-
2. Kimani Vidal, Troy
BackCAST score: plus-38.8%
Type of back: Balanced
Similar historical prospects: Chuba Hubbard, Bishop Sankey
Vidal, who ranks just 10th on Scouts Inc.'s running back board, is a bit of a surprise as BackCAST's No. 2 prospect. The system likes that he ran a 4.46-second 40-yard dash at 213 pounds, which gives him a speed score of 108. He averaged only 5.1 yards per carry during his college career but represented 61% of Troy's running game in his senior year, the highest collegiate peak of any of this year's prospects.
The response to that stat might be, "How important was it that Vidal got carries instead of his teammates? This was Troy, not Alabama. How good were the other backs?" This is a legitimate concern because there isn't a history of great running backs coming out of the Sun Belt conference. Alfred Morris was probably the best of them, coming from Florida Atlantic (no longer in the conference) in 2012. Current Sun Belt backs include Matt Breida (Georgia Southern), Elijah Mitchell (Louisiana) and Darrynton Evans (Appalachian State) all recorded fewer than 300 yards last season.
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3. Trey Benson, Florida State
BackCAST score: plus-28.1%
Type of back: Balanced
Similar historical prospects: Roy Helu Jr., Israel Abanikanda
Like Vidal, Benson has a good BackCAST in part because of a strong speed score. Benson ran the 40-yard dash in 4.39 seconds at 216 pounds, putting his speed score second this year behind Isaac Guerendo (we'll get to him in a moment). Unlike Vidal, Benson was a part-time back for a big-time program instead of a clear starter for a smaller school.
In his final college season, Benson only got 37% of Florida State's carries. He averaged 5.8 yards per carry, but two other Florida State backs with fewer carries (Lawrance Toafili and Caziah Holmes) each averaged over 6.0 yards per carry.
There haven't been a lot of backs who have a low AOEPS but otherwise strong metrics similar to Benson's. The best of these backs, Rachaad White, had much stronger receiving numbers in college. Miles Sanders is another interesting comparable, but he ran a slower 40 at 211 pounds and barely had any receiving yardage in college.
-
4. Jaylen Wright, Tennessee
BackCAST score: plus-21.1%
Type of back: Ground-and-pound
Similar historical prospects: Jarrett Ferguson, Zamir White
Wright is somewhat of a rare prospect because backs who only weigh 210 pounds are rarely classified as "ground-and-pound" by a lack of receiving numbers. He had 22 catches in 2023 but only got 6.4 yards per reception. The season before, Wright had more carries than in 2023 (146 compared to 137) but only two receptions.
He had to share carries last season with Dylan Sampson and Jabari Small, which drops his BackCAST a bit, but he was the best of the top three Tennessee backs. He averaged 7.4 yards per carry last season after 6.0 yards per carry in 2022. In fact, Wright was in the weird position of having more yards per carry than yards per reception in all three of his collegiate seasons.
-
5. Jonathon Brooks, Texas
BackCAST score: plus-7.3%
Type of back: Receiving
Similar historical prospects: Javonte Williams, Zach Charbonnet
The top Scouts Inc. running back prospect ranks only seventh in BackCAST among the backs invited to this year's combine. Part of the issue is that Brooks only had one season as a college starter, so his 6.2 yards per carry average might be inflated a bit by the small sample size.
BackCAST is also dinging Brooks for being unable to get a major role at Texas until his third season. That might be a bit unfair, considering that his teammates at Texas in 2021-2022 were 2023 NFL draft picks Bijan Robinson and Roschon Johnson. Brooks did not run the 40 at the combine, so that part of his projection has to be estimated.
-
The sleeper
Isaac Guerendo, Louisville
BackCAST score: plus-8.4%
Type of back: Balanced
Similar historical prospects: Latavius Murray
Guerendo ran the fastest 40-yard dash among this year's backs at the combine despite weighing in at 221 pounds, which is mind-blowing. His speed score of 125.7 was the third highest measured since 2003. But Guerendo's coaches clearly didn't believe in him in college. He played four seasons at Wisconsin and got a grand total of 99 carries. Even last season, after transferring to Louisville, Guerendo was the No. 2 back behind Jawhar Jordan. (They had similar averages both on carries and receptions.)
This makes finding a comparable for Guerendo extremely difficult. The closest player I found was probably Latavius Murray, who ran a 4.38-second 40-yard dash at 223 pounds and wasn't the No. 1 back at UCF until his final season. And the list of the highest speed scores does not exactly reveal a list of great sleepers.
Saquon Barkley and Brandon Jacobs are on there, but the top names are Keith Marshall, Mario Fannin and Knile Davis. This is a back with a really high ceiling and a really low floor.
-
The overrated back
Blake Corum, Michigan
BackCAST score: minus-25.7%
Type of back: Balanced
Similar historical prospects: Devonta Freeman, Jamaal Williams
Corum is Scouts Inc.'s No. 3 running back prospect and some draft boards have him No. 1, but he didn't really do anything that would impress BackCAST. His speed score based on weight and 40 time at the combine was a little below average. His AEOPS, based on how much he was used in the Michigan backfield compared to his teammates, was about average.
Corum only managed 4.8 yards per carry in his final season, so his career yards per carry number is average for this year's draft class. His receiving numbers are low. All his stats are just "meh." And this isn't included in BackCAST, but I will add that he's not considered strong in pass protection either. Corum may have a reasonable NFL career, but BackCAST doesn't think there's much that's very exciting here.
--
Projecting The Top Running Backs In The 2024 Class
1. Braelon Allen, Wisconsin 69.7%
2. Kimani Vidal, Troy 38.8%
3. Trey Benson, Florida St. 28.1%
4. Jaylen Wright, Tennessee 21.1%
5. Ray Davis, Kentucky 13.5%
6. Isaac Guerendo, Louisville 8.4%
7. Jonathon Brooks, Texas 7.3%
8. Frank Gore Jr., Southern Miss 1.9%
9. Will Shipley, Clemson -3.9%
10. MarShawn Lloyd, USC -3.9%
11. Bucky Irving, Oregon -4.0%
12. Dillon Johnson, Mississippi St. -14.7%
13. George Holani, Boise St. -17.5%
14. Michael Wiley, Arizona -18.3%
15. Rasheen Ali, Marshall -20.0%
16. Audric Estime, Notre Dame -25.0%
17. Blake Corum, Michigan -25.7%
18. Cody Schrader, Missouri -33.9%
19. Miyan Williams, Ohio St. -34.8%
20. Jase McClellan, Alabama -44.8%
21. Kendall Milton, Georgia -50.5%
22. Tyrone Tracy Jr., Purdue -65.1%
23. Daijun Edwards, Georgia -67.0%
24. Emani Bailey, TCU -77.4%
25. Jawhar Jordan, Louisville -88.7%
26. Keilan Robinson, Texas -101.7
