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Early warning: Pats-Chargers has playoff implications
By John Clayton
ESPN.com
(Archive)
Updated: September 13, 2007
New England's Sunday night meeting against the Chargers is one of the more important games of the season, and, believe it or not, it's more important for the Patriots. A loss to the Chargers could come back to haunt New England because it could mean the difference between playing a playoff game in Foxboro, Mass. or San Diego.
Despite this week's spy saga, the Patriots have the feel of a Super Bowl team. They showed tremendous swagger in destroying the Jets on the road last week. But their schedule is tough, as their opponents had a .535 winning percentage last season. Their road schedule is the NFL's toughest, with opponents posting a .570 winning percentage in 2006. The Pats play six of their road games against teams that posted .500 records or better in 2006.
If the Chargers, who play the overmatched NFC North, can take care of business in the AFC West, they could get to 12 or 13 wins and force the Patriots to play them in San Diego again.
The Chargers have had their own issues. They fired head coach Marty Schottenheimer after a 14-win season because of his inability to win playoff games in two of the past three years. They struggled offensively for the first three quarters of last week's 14-3 victory over the Bears. New head coach Norv Turner couldn't get the offense into any kind of rhythm against the tough Bears defense.
LaDainian Tomlinson doesn't think winning or losing this game will define the Chargers, whose goal is to beat the Patriots in the playoffs.
Here's a look at the other big games this week, which features some great non-divisional matchups:
1. Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans
With a road victory over the Jaguars last week, the Titans have assumed the role as the main challenger to the Colts in the AFC South. Can they be a real threat to Indy? They certainly have the formula to win this game. The Titans were one of four teams last season that put together enough of a running game to keep Peyton Manning off the field and pound out a victory against Indianapolis. Vince Young might not have pretty passing numbers, but he can manage a running attack.
Young doesn't have great throwing ability, but he is becoming a master at executing a solid running attack and turning third downs into first downs with his feet. This is a good test for the Colts, who stuffed the Saints' running attack in the opening week by flying to the ball to make tackles. For the Colts, this is an important barometer of how tough this AFC South race is going to be. The Colts play their three divisional road games by Oct. 22. If they can win two or three of these games, they can once again put distance on the rest of the teams in the division and start thinking about the playoffs in the second half of the season.
2. Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles
The Commanders believe their defense is back. They did a great job pressuring Trent Green and disrupting the Dolphins' offense in the opener. But everyone knows Miami has issues on the offensive line. With Donovan McNabb still lacking mobility after knee surgery, the Commanders should work on coming up with good blitz schemes to pressure McNabb and force him into mistakes.
The Eagles' offense looked anemic against the Packers in the opener. Receivers didn't catch the ball consistently and McNabb couldn't develop a rhythm. While the Packers' defense is pretty good, McNabb is too good a quarterback to complete less than 50 percent of his passes (15 of 33). The Commanders have a chance to show they are an NFC East contender if they play well. They suffered a big loss when right tackle Jon Jansen broke an ankle, so Todd Wade must step in and open running lanes for Clinton Portis and Ladell Betts. Washington quarterback Jason Campbell can expect to be blitzed heavily by Eagles defensive coordinator Jim Johnson.
3. Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals
Quarterback Matt Leinart looked horrible against the 49ers on Monday night. Cardinals head coach Ken Whisenhunt blamed himself, claiming he put too much in the offensive game plan. For this critical game against the Seahawks, Whisenhunt has scaled back the number of plays. Leinart completed only 50 percent of his passes against the 49ers. He didn't look decisive in his reads and his passes were not crisp. Plus, he didn't get the ball in the hands of Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin enough. That's probably bad news for the Seahawks, because the Cardinals will spend the whole week working on passing drills. Boldin and Fitzgerald are big, physical receivers who will cause problems for Seattle cornerbacks Marcus Trufant and Kelly Jennings.
The one promising thing from the opener for Arizona is the improvement in the rushing attack. Russ Grimm installed an impressive inside running attack with Edgerrin James. He also had a nice package that featured Marcel Shipp and J.J. Arrington in the same backfield. Despite the loss of Marcus Tubbs, the Seahawks feel pretty good about their defense. The unit won the opener against the Bucs, and general manager Tim Ruskell hopes to keep getting more agile on defense by tinkering with the roster. He brought in Ellis Wyms to add experience, and some of the young draft choices along the defensive line are making plays.
4. San Francisco 49ers at St. Louis Rams
Heading into the regular season, the Rams felt good about their chances in the NFC West. Adam Carriker, the team's first-round choice looked like the run-stopping force the team had been seeking for years. Drew Bennett and Randy McMichael were going to help the red-zone offense. After a week and the home loss to Carolina, the Rams are wondering if they can even get to the red zone. Their offensive line is a mess. Orlando Pace is out for the season with a shoulder injury, and guard Richie Incognito is out with a high ankle sprain. With Brett Romberg replacing Andy McCollum at center, the Rams won't have 60 percent of their projected starting offensive line heading into this game.
While Rams coach Scott Linehan has concerns about his offense, he is even more worried about his run defense. Frank Gore has the ability to destroy the Rams. Many in St. Louis think Gore is the best running back in the NFC not named Steven Jackson. The Rams probably don't fear the 49ers' passing attack. Despite the improvements in the receiving corps, Alex Smith went into the final three minutes of the opener against the Cardinals with only 42 net passing yards. This is a must-win for the Rams, as four of their next six games are on the road, and they don't want to fall two games behind the 49ers or the Seahawks. Linehan must find a way to turn this into a high-scoring shootout, which would favor the Rams at home.
5. New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Saints will be an angry team after barely showing up in the opener. Sean Payton made a big deal about not resting on last year's success, but he didn't expect his team to play so poorly against the Colts. Payton has had extra time to work on getting some better timing with the offense. The Saints didn't look like the same team from last season against the Colts.
The key to the game will be the health of halfback Bucs running back Cadillac Williams, who hurt his ribs in the loss to the Seahawks. The season-opening trip to Seattle was a nightmare for Jon Gruden as QB Jeff Garcia also got banged up. To compound matters, third-string tight end Jerramy Stevens lost a DUI case and could be facing a suspension. The team also cut wide receiver David Boston, who was hurt before the Seahawks game and couldn't shake his off-the-field issues. If the Bucs want to do anything in the NFC South, they can't afford to lose a game at home.
6. New York Jets at Baltimore Ravens
This game was supposed to feature a matchup between Chad Pennington and Steve McNair but probably will pit Kellen Clemens against Kyle Boller. It is worth wondering whether the Ravens would feel better if they had Byron Leftwich at QB. Pennington is limping so badly on his injured right ankle he probably doesn't have enough time to get back for this game. McNair has had many injuries, but he has never had a groin problem. It would be too dangerous to play him after a short week. The Ravens, who looked invincible during the preseason, look vulnerable.
Three of their best players -- McNair, Ray Lewis and Jonathan Ogden -- are hurt. Ogden is out indefinitely, and Lewis will try to play with a triceps injury. Boller must rally this offense, and Eric Mangini won't make it easy. Mangini's blitzes didn't affect Tom Brady last week, but they should rattle Boller, forcing the Ravens into more two-tight end schemes to bolster the protection. The Ravens had a physical, emotional game against the Bengals. The pressure is on Baltimore to win this game.
7. Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions
The Lions feel good about life these days. Mike Martz's offense ripped apart the Raiders, with Calvin Johnson proving every bit the threat at receiver he was touted to be. Roy Williams played with passion and Jon Kitna was on fire. This week, the Lions might even have Kevin Jones back for some action. It's rare for the Lions to win a road game. Now, they come back home with some momentum, something that's been missing for several years. But the Vikings' defense has its own swagger after dominating the Falcons.
While containing Atlanta quarterback Joey Harrington is not something to go crazy about, the defense played so well that Tarvaris Jackson only had to hand the ball to running back Adrian Peterson en route to an easy victory. The Vikings probably can win a low-scoring game, but they will be overmatched if they must battle the Lions in a high-scoring affair.
8. Dallas Cowboys at Miami Dolphins
The Cowboys were supposed to put up a bunch of points against the Giants, but it was surprising to see the Dallas defense give up 35. A big part of the problem was having four defensive starters miss the game. Until they get healthy, the Cowboys might be vulnerable on defense. Losing nose tackle Jason Ferguson hurt more than even the Cowboys imagined. The key to a 3-4 defense is the play of the nose tackle. If the nose tackle draws double teams, it frees the rest of the defense to make plays. Ferguson is out for the season, and Terence Newman's foot injury has the secondary undermanned. Tony Romo continues to grow as a quarterback and a leader. Romo is playing for a contract and the better he performs, the quicker Jerry Jones must pay him..
The Dolphins lost a tough game to the Commanders last week. Because of the struggles along their offensive line, Trent Green couldn't move the offense as well as he did in Kansas City. The system is new, and Green is still getting his timing down with his receivers. The Dolphins have a good enough defense to stop the running attack of the Cowboys and force Romo to go after their secondary. This should be an interesting game.
9. Green Bay Packers at New York Giants
When you look at the injury list for the Giants, you must feel sorry for Tom Coughlin. Eli Manning has a second-degree shoulder separation and likely will give way to Jared Lorenzen this week. Brandon Jacobs is out for about a month with a knee injury. Osi Umenyiora could miss two months with a knee injury.
The Packers are usually led by their offense, but that's not the case this year. They are pretty good on defense and average at best on offense. Brett Favre still can play, but he has so much youth around him that it's hard for him to generate more than 20 points in most games. The Packers had a nice win against the Eagles last week. If they can pull off a road victory against the banged-up Giants, they might gain enough confidence to cause some damage in the NFC North. A win over the Giants would make them 2-0 against the NFC East.
10. Houston Texans at Carolina Panthers
Even though David Carr isn't expected to play, he should be imploring his new teammates to beat the Texans. The Texans coaching staff ran Carr out of town because he took too many sacks, but the organization never gave him a good offensive line or a consistent running game. Matt Schaub was brought into Houston for his quick release and smart decisions. But Houston still was Carr's team in the former No. 1 pick's his eyes. Carr should try to buy the defensive line a big dinner if it can notch several sacks against Schaub. The Panthers have the talent on defense to give Houston problems.
The Texans had no trouble breezing by a bad Chiefs team last Sunday, but the Panthers will be much tougher. Last Sunday at St. Louis, Jake Delhomme looked good running new offensive coordinator Jeff Davidson's offense. In this system, the ball is spread around to more than just Steve Smith. Davidson even involved the tight end, something that never happened under Dan Henning. The Panthers' offensive line might have to pay more attention to Mario Williams, who finally had a big game after lining up exclusively on the right side of the defense.
John Clayton is a senior writer for ESPN.com.
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By John Clayton
ESPN.com
(Archive)
Updated: September 13, 2007
New England's Sunday night meeting against the Chargers is one of the more important games of the season, and, believe it or not, it's more important for the Patriots. A loss to the Chargers could come back to haunt New England because it could mean the difference between playing a playoff game in Foxboro, Mass. or San Diego.
Despite this week's spy saga, the Patriots have the feel of a Super Bowl team. They showed tremendous swagger in destroying the Jets on the road last week. But their schedule is tough, as their opponents had a .535 winning percentage last season. Their road schedule is the NFL's toughest, with opponents posting a .570 winning percentage in 2006. The Pats play six of their road games against teams that posted .500 records or better in 2006.
If the Chargers, who play the overmatched NFC North, can take care of business in the AFC West, they could get to 12 or 13 wins and force the Patriots to play them in San Diego again.
The Chargers have had their own issues. They fired head coach Marty Schottenheimer after a 14-win season because of his inability to win playoff games in two of the past three years. They struggled offensively for the first three quarters of last week's 14-3 victory over the Bears. New head coach Norv Turner couldn't get the offense into any kind of rhythm against the tough Bears defense.
LaDainian Tomlinson doesn't think winning or losing this game will define the Chargers, whose goal is to beat the Patriots in the playoffs.
Here's a look at the other big games this week, which features some great non-divisional matchups:
1. Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans
With a road victory over the Jaguars last week, the Titans have assumed the role as the main challenger to the Colts in the AFC South. Can they be a real threat to Indy? They certainly have the formula to win this game. The Titans were one of four teams last season that put together enough of a running game to keep Peyton Manning off the field and pound out a victory against Indianapolis. Vince Young might not have pretty passing numbers, but he can manage a running attack.
Young doesn't have great throwing ability, but he is becoming a master at executing a solid running attack and turning third downs into first downs with his feet. This is a good test for the Colts, who stuffed the Saints' running attack in the opening week by flying to the ball to make tackles. For the Colts, this is an important barometer of how tough this AFC South race is going to be. The Colts play their three divisional road games by Oct. 22. If they can win two or three of these games, they can once again put distance on the rest of the teams in the division and start thinking about the playoffs in the second half of the season.
2. Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles
The Commanders believe their defense is back. They did a great job pressuring Trent Green and disrupting the Dolphins' offense in the opener. But everyone knows Miami has issues on the offensive line. With Donovan McNabb still lacking mobility after knee surgery, the Commanders should work on coming up with good blitz schemes to pressure McNabb and force him into mistakes.
The Eagles' offense looked anemic against the Packers in the opener. Receivers didn't catch the ball consistently and McNabb couldn't develop a rhythm. While the Packers' defense is pretty good, McNabb is too good a quarterback to complete less than 50 percent of his passes (15 of 33). The Commanders have a chance to show they are an NFC East contender if they play well. They suffered a big loss when right tackle Jon Jansen broke an ankle, so Todd Wade must step in and open running lanes for Clinton Portis and Ladell Betts. Washington quarterback Jason Campbell can expect to be blitzed heavily by Eagles defensive coordinator Jim Johnson.
3. Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals
Quarterback Matt Leinart looked horrible against the 49ers on Monday night. Cardinals head coach Ken Whisenhunt blamed himself, claiming he put too much in the offensive game plan. For this critical game against the Seahawks, Whisenhunt has scaled back the number of plays. Leinart completed only 50 percent of his passes against the 49ers. He didn't look decisive in his reads and his passes were not crisp. Plus, he didn't get the ball in the hands of Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin enough. That's probably bad news for the Seahawks, because the Cardinals will spend the whole week working on passing drills. Boldin and Fitzgerald are big, physical receivers who will cause problems for Seattle cornerbacks Marcus Trufant and Kelly Jennings.
The one promising thing from the opener for Arizona is the improvement in the rushing attack. Russ Grimm installed an impressive inside running attack with Edgerrin James. He also had a nice package that featured Marcel Shipp and J.J. Arrington in the same backfield. Despite the loss of Marcus Tubbs, the Seahawks feel pretty good about their defense. The unit won the opener against the Bucs, and general manager Tim Ruskell hopes to keep getting more agile on defense by tinkering with the roster. He brought in Ellis Wyms to add experience, and some of the young draft choices along the defensive line are making plays.
4. San Francisco 49ers at St. Louis Rams
Heading into the regular season, the Rams felt good about their chances in the NFC West. Adam Carriker, the team's first-round choice looked like the run-stopping force the team had been seeking for years. Drew Bennett and Randy McMichael were going to help the red-zone offense. After a week and the home loss to Carolina, the Rams are wondering if they can even get to the red zone. Their offensive line is a mess. Orlando Pace is out for the season with a shoulder injury, and guard Richie Incognito is out with a high ankle sprain. With Brett Romberg replacing Andy McCollum at center, the Rams won't have 60 percent of their projected starting offensive line heading into this game.
While Rams coach Scott Linehan has concerns about his offense, he is even more worried about his run defense. Frank Gore has the ability to destroy the Rams. Many in St. Louis think Gore is the best running back in the NFC not named Steven Jackson. The Rams probably don't fear the 49ers' passing attack. Despite the improvements in the receiving corps, Alex Smith went into the final three minutes of the opener against the Cardinals with only 42 net passing yards. This is a must-win for the Rams, as four of their next six games are on the road, and they don't want to fall two games behind the 49ers or the Seahawks. Linehan must find a way to turn this into a high-scoring shootout, which would favor the Rams at home.
5. New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Saints will be an angry team after barely showing up in the opener. Sean Payton made a big deal about not resting on last year's success, but he didn't expect his team to play so poorly against the Colts. Payton has had extra time to work on getting some better timing with the offense. The Saints didn't look like the same team from last season against the Colts.
The key to the game will be the health of halfback Bucs running back Cadillac Williams, who hurt his ribs in the loss to the Seahawks. The season-opening trip to Seattle was a nightmare for Jon Gruden as QB Jeff Garcia also got banged up. To compound matters, third-string tight end Jerramy Stevens lost a DUI case and could be facing a suspension. The team also cut wide receiver David Boston, who was hurt before the Seahawks game and couldn't shake his off-the-field issues. If the Bucs want to do anything in the NFC South, they can't afford to lose a game at home.
6. New York Jets at Baltimore Ravens
This game was supposed to feature a matchup between Chad Pennington and Steve McNair but probably will pit Kellen Clemens against Kyle Boller. It is worth wondering whether the Ravens would feel better if they had Byron Leftwich at QB. Pennington is limping so badly on his injured right ankle he probably doesn't have enough time to get back for this game. McNair has had many injuries, but he has never had a groin problem. It would be too dangerous to play him after a short week. The Ravens, who looked invincible during the preseason, look vulnerable.
Three of their best players -- McNair, Ray Lewis and Jonathan Ogden -- are hurt. Ogden is out indefinitely, and Lewis will try to play with a triceps injury. Boller must rally this offense, and Eric Mangini won't make it easy. Mangini's blitzes didn't affect Tom Brady last week, but they should rattle Boller, forcing the Ravens into more two-tight end schemes to bolster the protection. The Ravens had a physical, emotional game against the Bengals. The pressure is on Baltimore to win this game.
7. Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions
The Lions feel good about life these days. Mike Martz's offense ripped apart the Raiders, with Calvin Johnson proving every bit the threat at receiver he was touted to be. Roy Williams played with passion and Jon Kitna was on fire. This week, the Lions might even have Kevin Jones back for some action. It's rare for the Lions to win a road game. Now, they come back home with some momentum, something that's been missing for several years. But the Vikings' defense has its own swagger after dominating the Falcons.
While containing Atlanta quarterback Joey Harrington is not something to go crazy about, the defense played so well that Tarvaris Jackson only had to hand the ball to running back Adrian Peterson en route to an easy victory. The Vikings probably can win a low-scoring game, but they will be overmatched if they must battle the Lions in a high-scoring affair.
8. Dallas Cowboys at Miami Dolphins
The Cowboys were supposed to put up a bunch of points against the Giants, but it was surprising to see the Dallas defense give up 35. A big part of the problem was having four defensive starters miss the game. Until they get healthy, the Cowboys might be vulnerable on defense. Losing nose tackle Jason Ferguson hurt more than even the Cowboys imagined. The key to a 3-4 defense is the play of the nose tackle. If the nose tackle draws double teams, it frees the rest of the defense to make plays. Ferguson is out for the season, and Terence Newman's foot injury has the secondary undermanned. Tony Romo continues to grow as a quarterback and a leader. Romo is playing for a contract and the better he performs, the quicker Jerry Jones must pay him..
The Dolphins lost a tough game to the Commanders last week. Because of the struggles along their offensive line, Trent Green couldn't move the offense as well as he did in Kansas City. The system is new, and Green is still getting his timing down with his receivers. The Dolphins have a good enough defense to stop the running attack of the Cowboys and force Romo to go after their secondary. This should be an interesting game.
9. Green Bay Packers at New York Giants
When you look at the injury list for the Giants, you must feel sorry for Tom Coughlin. Eli Manning has a second-degree shoulder separation and likely will give way to Jared Lorenzen this week. Brandon Jacobs is out for about a month with a knee injury. Osi Umenyiora could miss two months with a knee injury.
The Packers are usually led by their offense, but that's not the case this year. They are pretty good on defense and average at best on offense. Brett Favre still can play, but he has so much youth around him that it's hard for him to generate more than 20 points in most games. The Packers had a nice win against the Eagles last week. If they can pull off a road victory against the banged-up Giants, they might gain enough confidence to cause some damage in the NFC North. A win over the Giants would make them 2-0 against the NFC East.
10. Houston Texans at Carolina Panthers
Even though David Carr isn't expected to play, he should be imploring his new teammates to beat the Texans. The Texans coaching staff ran Carr out of town because he took too many sacks, but the organization never gave him a good offensive line or a consistent running game. Matt Schaub was brought into Houston for his quick release and smart decisions. But Houston still was Carr's team in the former No. 1 pick's his eyes. Carr should try to buy the defensive line a big dinner if it can notch several sacks against Schaub. The Panthers have the talent on defense to give Houston problems.
The Texans had no trouble breezing by a bad Chiefs team last Sunday, but the Panthers will be much tougher. Last Sunday at St. Louis, Jake Delhomme looked good running new offensive coordinator Jeff Davidson's offense. In this system, the ball is spread around to more than just Steve Smith. Davidson even involved the tight end, something that never happened under Dan Henning. The Panthers' offensive line might have to pay more attention to Mario Williams, who finally had a big game after lining up exclusively on the right side of the defense.
John Clayton is a senior writer for ESPN.com.
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