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Mel Kiper Jr. : (2:02 PM ET ) OK! First round projection went up this week, we'll discuss that. Team need reports will be going up on ESPN.com this weekend. And, we have the championship NFL games and the senior bowl in Mobile ... lots to talk about!
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wayne sacramento ca.: Is Alex Smith's mobility a big part of why you have the 49ers selecting him rather than Aaron Rodgers?
Mel Kiper Jr. : (2:04 PM ET ) Well, it's two things really ... the mobility factor is huge, Alex has 10 rushing TDs and ran for over 600 yards. You have two players generally equally, but size is a separator. Alex Smith is bigger, that's a big reason for his edge.
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Hugh, Montgomery, AL: Should the 49ers trade the #1 pick and if so you would be the best fit for a trade partner?
Mel Kiper Jr. : (2:05 PM ET ) Well, you can't trade the pick if you don't have an offer that's viable. If there's no clear-cut No. 1 player in this draft, what would the trade partner give up? What's worthy to trade for? What's legit? That is the question, what is strong enough to trade the first pick for. Sure, the 9ers will entertain offers, but I think they have to be prepared to make the pick .... and if I'm the 49ers, I'm looking at Alex Smith.
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Andrew (Home of Little League WS): Okay Mel, if the Dolphins get Travis Henry or another veteran runningback, what should they do with the number 2 pick then?
Mel Kiper Jr. : (2:07 PM ET ) Well, their need area is certainly a RB. I projected Benson there for the PHins, b/c I cannot bank on a trade. They could look at one of the two QBs -- Alex Smith or Aaron Rodgers -- with that No. 2 pick if they do land a veteran. Nick Saban has to assess the situation and make some decisions.
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Jon (Madison): Hey Mel, love your work. What do the Packers do with their 3 picks in rounds 1 and 2? Defense, quaterback of the future?
Mel Kiper Jr. : (2:10 PM ET ) They have to look defense. Their defense was just aweful. Sieve-like. They need a safety, defensive linemen, linebackers. Channing Crowder out of Florida might be right for the Pack. As for QB, Charlie Frye or Jason Campbell may be a nice fit in Green Bay. Chris Canty may be a guy for them to consider in the second round ... he would have been a first rounder if not for that injury. Defensive linemen and quarterbacks will be among the Packers' draftees.
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Chico, CA: Will Mike Williams be available with the fourth overall pick? If not, Do you see them drafting DJ from Texas even though the needs are obviously on offense?
Mel Kiper Jr. : (2:11 PM ET ) I'd say the Bears have to go for a skill position player like a WR with speed like Braylon Edwards or a versatile RB like Ronnie Brown. OR, they could look to move off that pick. Chicago is a very viable team to move down. I think moving down and getting some extra choices would be beneficial to the Bears.
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Jeremy Tama,IA: I hear a lot of rumors about the Raiders and Trading for Randy Moss or even Possibly getting Ty Law from the pats? Are these just rumors or is this possible?
Mel Kiper Jr. : (2:15 PM ET ) I think Randy Moss -- there is always a possibility with Randy -- if you can get enough in return, is it worth trading Randy. He is a special player. He is talented and something that is almost irreplacable. He is a rarity. Sure, there are distractions, and question marks and behavior issues, but if you're going to trade him, you better get a heck of a return. No one presents fear from the defense like Randy Moss. He is a special talent, no doubt. Now, overall, the defense there -- that front seven -- you have to address those needs. The Raiders may select a pure pass rusher like Dan Cody who I think would be a great fit and really firm up those needs there.
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Three Futile Fans (Arlington, VA): Do you think the Colts would trade the Edge to get more draft picks or upgrade their defense?
Mel Kiper Jr. : (2:17 PM ET ) Well, no. They will maintain James. I think RBs are replaceable. It's been proven that those even as good as Edgerin could be replace but with Peyton and Marvin and Edgerin -- there is a synchronicity there that I don't think it's worth changing. I've always been open to that, but I think the Colts internally, have a different feeling about that special mix of players they have there.
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James (Rochester, NY): I know the Commanders liked what they saw in rookie Chris Cooley this season, but is there any chance that they take Heath Miller if he's there at 9?
Mel Kiper Jr. : (2:18 PM ET ) No chance. More than anything, the Skins need a WR, a center and a defensive end. A wide receiver first. Braylon Edwards if he's there at No. 9. ... for DE Erasmus James if Dan Cody is gone. Those would fill need areas. Center they will probably fill in free agency. Remember, the Commanders do not have a second round draft choice.
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c tampa: What do you see the bucs doing with their plethora of draft picks, especially #5 overall?
Mel Kiper Jr. : (2:19 PM ET ) Running back and D-line needs to be improved. There will be three RBs -- Benson, Ronnie Brown and Cadillac -- vying for top spots. I think Cadillac will go fifth to Tampa Bay, but it's very easily conceivable that all three of those could still be on the board at the time for that fifth pick. So we'll see, I think the Bucs will have options.
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Tom (Bloomington, IN): Is there a possibility that the Lions could trade Harrington and draft a QB? What kind of value do you see Joey commanding?
Mel Kiper Jr. : (2:21 PM ET ) Not nearly the value that he was in the draft. There are a lot of questions about Joey -- a lot that I don't think are even fair. Charles Rodgers ... Roy Williams ... Jones -- these guys weren't healthy for Joey. Add Heath Miller and get your other guys healthy, THEN you can evaluate and criticize Joey Harrington. The preception of the Lions offense isn't accurate. Joey needs a supporting cast. The questions that he has come into just aren't fair considering the hand that he has been dealt.
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Mike(Concord,CA): Hey Mel, Could you see the Eagles taking a rb in the second round? Perhaps J.J. Arrington? Thanks!
Mel Kiper Jr. : (2:24 PM ET ) Possibly. The Eagles have a lot of other areas to address even though they are in the championship game. DE ... DT ... outside linebacker. Guys like Justin Tuck from Notre DAme, Marcus Speas from LSU or Odell Thurman from GA come to mind for me. But, there will be some good RBs like Eric Shelton from Louisville, JJ Arrington from Cal, Anthony Davis from Wiscon that will figure into that third round mix. They will have plenty of RB options.
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Daniel (Tulsa): Is Brodney Pool the best safety in the draft? did he make the right decision?
Mel Kiper Jr. : (2:26 PM ET ) I think what helps him is that this is a weak safety group overall. I think Thomas DAvis will go as an outside linebacker -- not a safety. So Pool is No. 1 followed by Shazor of Michigan. You can make the argument that the third is Josh Bullocks from Nebraska -- another underclassman! Right now, Pool figures as a possible late first rounder ... I almost put him in the first round projection to the Atlanta Falcons as pick No. 27.
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Andrew,WV: Is Adam Pac-Man Jones a top 10 draft selection?
Mel Kiper Jr. : (2:28 PM ET ) Yes, he SHOULD be if he runs as well at the combine as he says he will ... 4.25 - 4.3 range. He is a great player, he's tough, he'll tackle, he'll get better once his technique improves. I have Tenness figuring to lose Andre Dyson and I think the Titans would therefore pick up Pac-Man with their No. 6 pick.
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Dan (San Jose): Mel...you rule. Which event usually changes players' stock more: The Senior Bowl or the Combine?
Mel Kiper Jr. : (2:29 PM ET ) The combine does. Both work in unison. The Senior Bowl is combine work out No. 1. Look at Chad Johnson. He had a great Senior Bowl performance. I thought he'd be a top 10-15 pick after the senior bowl. But, he had a sub-par combine and he dropped to the second round. The last time they see you is during work outs. You HAVE to follow up the Senior with strong workouts!
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Bryan (Bismarck, ND): You mentioned there is no clear cut #1 on the draft. Does that mean there aren't any "franchise-type" players this year?
Mel Kiper Jr. : (2:33 PM ET ) Keep in mind, ot's all about perception. T.O. was a third round draft choice. Brian Dawkins was a second rounder. Priest Holmes was an undrafted free agent! Tom Brady was a sixth rounder! You can find franchise players now who were not perceived to be this way. ... And, on the same token, 50% of players don't live up to expectations. So, we just don't know what will become of these guys two or three years down the road.
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Shaun (Pensacola,FL): Sitting at the 8 sport should the Cardinals take a QB or maybe one of the Auburn running backs?
Mel Kiper Jr. : (2:34 PM ET ) Nah, I think what the Cards can do is -- certainly get some RB help. I think those Auburn RBs will be gone ... if they are there, they will absolutely HAVE to take them. Remember, the Cardinals passed on Ben Roethlisberger last yer to get Larry Fitzgerald. I wanted to put an RB to Arizona in my projection, and I think they still could have a strong shot at one of those three being on the board, but they have to anticipate them being off.
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Eric (Minneapolis): Mel, who's your #1 corner in the draft and who do you see the Vikings taking at 18? Thanks
Mel Kiper Jr. : (2:36 PM ET ) The Vikings need area is cornerback, defen tackle and outside linebacker. I think they will take a corner at 18 ... OR they could take Shaun Cody -- who is a tackle or end. They could look at Carlos Rodgers if Rolle is gone or Brandon Browner of Oregon State ... or JUstin Miller from Clemson.
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Damien Lafayette, La: hey Mel, who do you see the Saints picking? And what is their primary gap to fill?
Mel Kiper Jr. : (2:38 PM ET ) Primary need for New Orleans is a cornerback. Johnathan Sullivan has been a major disapointment. They traded up to get him, they passed on Trufant. Now, they need a corner AND a defensive tackle. I think they will take Thomas Davis that versatile kid out of Georgia in the first round.
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Spivey (Atl): Who's in the Super Bowl , and who wins?
Mel Kiper Jr. : (2:41 PM ET ) I've aleardy gone on record as an all Penn Super Bowl -- Pittsburgh and Philly. Track the weather as much as you track injuries for this weekend. We're talking maybe a foot of snow -- potentially. It will be cold, that's why I don't like Atlanta. I don't like dome teams. I like the better defense in cold games so I go Philly. And the Pats brought their best game against Indy and I just don't think they can match that same intensity level for Pittsburgh who was a little lackluster last week. THey will be firing on all cylinders this time around against New England. I think the Eagles and the Steelers are heading to the Super Bowl!
Mel Kiper Jr. : (2:42 PM ET ) That's all the time we have for today, folks. I'll be over at the Senior Bowl next week, we'll get a chat in from over there although I'm not sure of the day and time yet. Keep an eye out. Thanks everybody. Take care!
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wayne sacramento ca.: Is Alex Smith's mobility a big part of why you have the 49ers selecting him rather than Aaron Rodgers?
Mel Kiper Jr. : (2:04 PM ET ) Well, it's two things really ... the mobility factor is huge, Alex has 10 rushing TDs and ran for over 600 yards. You have two players generally equally, but size is a separator. Alex Smith is bigger, that's a big reason for his edge.
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Hugh, Montgomery, AL: Should the 49ers trade the #1 pick and if so you would be the best fit for a trade partner?
Mel Kiper Jr. : (2:05 PM ET ) Well, you can't trade the pick if you don't have an offer that's viable. If there's no clear-cut No. 1 player in this draft, what would the trade partner give up? What's worthy to trade for? What's legit? That is the question, what is strong enough to trade the first pick for. Sure, the 9ers will entertain offers, but I think they have to be prepared to make the pick .... and if I'm the 49ers, I'm looking at Alex Smith.
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Andrew (Home of Little League WS): Okay Mel, if the Dolphins get Travis Henry or another veteran runningback, what should they do with the number 2 pick then?
Mel Kiper Jr. : (2:07 PM ET ) Well, their need area is certainly a RB. I projected Benson there for the PHins, b/c I cannot bank on a trade. They could look at one of the two QBs -- Alex Smith or Aaron Rodgers -- with that No. 2 pick if they do land a veteran. Nick Saban has to assess the situation and make some decisions.
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Jon (Madison): Hey Mel, love your work. What do the Packers do with their 3 picks in rounds 1 and 2? Defense, quaterback of the future?
Mel Kiper Jr. : (2:10 PM ET ) They have to look defense. Their defense was just aweful. Sieve-like. They need a safety, defensive linemen, linebackers. Channing Crowder out of Florida might be right for the Pack. As for QB, Charlie Frye or Jason Campbell may be a nice fit in Green Bay. Chris Canty may be a guy for them to consider in the second round ... he would have been a first rounder if not for that injury. Defensive linemen and quarterbacks will be among the Packers' draftees.
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Chico, CA: Will Mike Williams be available with the fourth overall pick? If not, Do you see them drafting DJ from Texas even though the needs are obviously on offense?
Mel Kiper Jr. : (2:11 PM ET ) I'd say the Bears have to go for a skill position player like a WR with speed like Braylon Edwards or a versatile RB like Ronnie Brown. OR, they could look to move off that pick. Chicago is a very viable team to move down. I think moving down and getting some extra choices would be beneficial to the Bears.
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Jeremy Tama,IA: I hear a lot of rumors about the Raiders and Trading for Randy Moss or even Possibly getting Ty Law from the pats? Are these just rumors or is this possible?
Mel Kiper Jr. : (2:15 PM ET ) I think Randy Moss -- there is always a possibility with Randy -- if you can get enough in return, is it worth trading Randy. He is a special player. He is talented and something that is almost irreplacable. He is a rarity. Sure, there are distractions, and question marks and behavior issues, but if you're going to trade him, you better get a heck of a return. No one presents fear from the defense like Randy Moss. He is a special talent, no doubt. Now, overall, the defense there -- that front seven -- you have to address those needs. The Raiders may select a pure pass rusher like Dan Cody who I think would be a great fit and really firm up those needs there.
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Three Futile Fans (Arlington, VA): Do you think the Colts would trade the Edge to get more draft picks or upgrade their defense?
Mel Kiper Jr. : (2:17 PM ET ) Well, no. They will maintain James. I think RBs are replaceable. It's been proven that those even as good as Edgerin could be replace but with Peyton and Marvin and Edgerin -- there is a synchronicity there that I don't think it's worth changing. I've always been open to that, but I think the Colts internally, have a different feeling about that special mix of players they have there.
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James (Rochester, NY): I know the Commanders liked what they saw in rookie Chris Cooley this season, but is there any chance that they take Heath Miller if he's there at 9?
Mel Kiper Jr. : (2:18 PM ET ) No chance. More than anything, the Skins need a WR, a center and a defensive end. A wide receiver first. Braylon Edwards if he's there at No. 9. ... for DE Erasmus James if Dan Cody is gone. Those would fill need areas. Center they will probably fill in free agency. Remember, the Commanders do not have a second round draft choice.
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c tampa: What do you see the bucs doing with their plethora of draft picks, especially #5 overall?
Mel Kiper Jr. : (2:19 PM ET ) Running back and D-line needs to be improved. There will be three RBs -- Benson, Ronnie Brown and Cadillac -- vying for top spots. I think Cadillac will go fifth to Tampa Bay, but it's very easily conceivable that all three of those could still be on the board at the time for that fifth pick. So we'll see, I think the Bucs will have options.
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Tom (Bloomington, IN): Is there a possibility that the Lions could trade Harrington and draft a QB? What kind of value do you see Joey commanding?
Mel Kiper Jr. : (2:21 PM ET ) Not nearly the value that he was in the draft. There are a lot of questions about Joey -- a lot that I don't think are even fair. Charles Rodgers ... Roy Williams ... Jones -- these guys weren't healthy for Joey. Add Heath Miller and get your other guys healthy, THEN you can evaluate and criticize Joey Harrington. The preception of the Lions offense isn't accurate. Joey needs a supporting cast. The questions that he has come into just aren't fair considering the hand that he has been dealt.
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Mike(Concord,CA): Hey Mel, Could you see the Eagles taking a rb in the second round? Perhaps J.J. Arrington? Thanks!
Mel Kiper Jr. : (2:24 PM ET ) Possibly. The Eagles have a lot of other areas to address even though they are in the championship game. DE ... DT ... outside linebacker. Guys like Justin Tuck from Notre DAme, Marcus Speas from LSU or Odell Thurman from GA come to mind for me. But, there will be some good RBs like Eric Shelton from Louisville, JJ Arrington from Cal, Anthony Davis from Wiscon that will figure into that third round mix. They will have plenty of RB options.
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Daniel (Tulsa): Is Brodney Pool the best safety in the draft? did he make the right decision?
Mel Kiper Jr. : (2:26 PM ET ) I think what helps him is that this is a weak safety group overall. I think Thomas DAvis will go as an outside linebacker -- not a safety. So Pool is No. 1 followed by Shazor of Michigan. You can make the argument that the third is Josh Bullocks from Nebraska -- another underclassman! Right now, Pool figures as a possible late first rounder ... I almost put him in the first round projection to the Atlanta Falcons as pick No. 27.
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Andrew,WV: Is Adam Pac-Man Jones a top 10 draft selection?
Mel Kiper Jr. : (2:28 PM ET ) Yes, he SHOULD be if he runs as well at the combine as he says he will ... 4.25 - 4.3 range. He is a great player, he's tough, he'll tackle, he'll get better once his technique improves. I have Tenness figuring to lose Andre Dyson and I think the Titans would therefore pick up Pac-Man with their No. 6 pick.
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Dan (San Jose): Mel...you rule. Which event usually changes players' stock more: The Senior Bowl or the Combine?
Mel Kiper Jr. : (2:29 PM ET ) The combine does. Both work in unison. The Senior Bowl is combine work out No. 1. Look at Chad Johnson. He had a great Senior Bowl performance. I thought he'd be a top 10-15 pick after the senior bowl. But, he had a sub-par combine and he dropped to the second round. The last time they see you is during work outs. You HAVE to follow up the Senior with strong workouts!
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Bryan (Bismarck, ND): You mentioned there is no clear cut #1 on the draft. Does that mean there aren't any "franchise-type" players this year?
Mel Kiper Jr. : (2:33 PM ET ) Keep in mind, ot's all about perception. T.O. was a third round draft choice. Brian Dawkins was a second rounder. Priest Holmes was an undrafted free agent! Tom Brady was a sixth rounder! You can find franchise players now who were not perceived to be this way. ... And, on the same token, 50% of players don't live up to expectations. So, we just don't know what will become of these guys two or three years down the road.
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Shaun (Pensacola,FL): Sitting at the 8 sport should the Cardinals take a QB or maybe one of the Auburn running backs?
Mel Kiper Jr. : (2:34 PM ET ) Nah, I think what the Cards can do is -- certainly get some RB help. I think those Auburn RBs will be gone ... if they are there, they will absolutely HAVE to take them. Remember, the Cardinals passed on Ben Roethlisberger last yer to get Larry Fitzgerald. I wanted to put an RB to Arizona in my projection, and I think they still could have a strong shot at one of those three being on the board, but they have to anticipate them being off.
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Eric (Minneapolis): Mel, who's your #1 corner in the draft and who do you see the Vikings taking at 18? Thanks
Mel Kiper Jr. : (2:36 PM ET ) The Vikings need area is cornerback, defen tackle and outside linebacker. I think they will take a corner at 18 ... OR they could take Shaun Cody -- who is a tackle or end. They could look at Carlos Rodgers if Rolle is gone or Brandon Browner of Oregon State ... or JUstin Miller from Clemson.
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Damien Lafayette, La: hey Mel, who do you see the Saints picking? And what is their primary gap to fill?
Mel Kiper Jr. : (2:38 PM ET ) Primary need for New Orleans is a cornerback. Johnathan Sullivan has been a major disapointment. They traded up to get him, they passed on Trufant. Now, they need a corner AND a defensive tackle. I think they will take Thomas Davis that versatile kid out of Georgia in the first round.
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Spivey (Atl): Who's in the Super Bowl , and who wins?
Mel Kiper Jr. : (2:41 PM ET ) I've aleardy gone on record as an all Penn Super Bowl -- Pittsburgh and Philly. Track the weather as much as you track injuries for this weekend. We're talking maybe a foot of snow -- potentially. It will be cold, that's why I don't like Atlanta. I don't like dome teams. I like the better defense in cold games so I go Philly. And the Pats brought their best game against Indy and I just don't think they can match that same intensity level for Pittsburgh who was a little lackluster last week. THey will be firing on all cylinders this time around against New England. I think the Eagles and the Steelers are heading to the Super Bowl!
Mel Kiper Jr. : (2:42 PM ET ) That's all the time we have for today, folks. I'll be over at the Senior Bowl next week, we'll get a chat in from over there although I'm not sure of the day and time yet. Keep an eye out. Thanks everybody. Take care!
